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Probably. If I remember correctly the MF development costs like 2.6 B right? So even if Siaf can pay for 55% stake it's still a lot of money the partners have to finance somehow.
I find it interesting that the first tranche of collateral shares were issued as early as 2/2/15 although they reported that the loans were "secured in March". The 10k even said that the loan was secured by collateral shares owned/owed (?) by third-party investors. Now we know that's not true. I donot understand also how the 0.907m collateral shs were not accounted for in the waos of Q1'15 nor how they could say the shares would not affect the eps in the interim.
good question. They may have canceled/retired some shs (employee compensation shs, treasury shs?) in Q1. If there is no dilution there is nothing to "weight average" so the simple share count (o/s) on Jan 01, 2015 (= 17,162,716) should be equal to the "Basic weighted" average shares outstanding at the end of Q1'15 (= 17,114,989). The difference is only about 50k so it is negligible IMO.
I stand corrected. I forgot to add the 0.707M Preferred B shs into the fd. Without the 0.907M collateral shs (issued b/w 2/2 and 3/21/2015) the fd should be:
17.163M (o/s as of Jan 01, 2015)
plus 0.707M (Pref B shs)
= 17.87M fd
This is essentially the same as the fd of 17.822M reported for Mar 31, 2015 in the 10Q, so the 0.9M were not weighted/added into the fd of Q1'15. So you are right, the 0.9M shs will be fully added to Q2'15 fd.
from page 15:
the approx 750k shares were issued sometime b/w
Feb12,15: o/s = 17,240,680
and Mar 27: o/s= 18,069,412
acc. to my notes. We also know that the o/s was
17,162,716 on Dec 31, 2014 so basically unchanged until Feb 12, 2015.
So assuming that the 18.07-17.24 = 0.83M shs were issued by March 1 and thus count as 0.83/3=0.28M weighted to the quarter, the waos should be:
17,24M + 0.28M = 17.52M
which compares well with the fd of 17.82M reported in 10Q. If anything this tells me the extra shs were issued even before March, maybe second half of Feb 2015 although the April 1, 2015 PR of the 10K says the loan was secured "during March 2015" :
well we still have upcoming dilution when/if ECAB converts their loan into shares which both RD and me have already factored into the fd of next 2-3 years.
maybe b/c the buying mainly came from Europe and 11am EST means 5pm Stockholm time when office workers (?) shut off their computers and go home?
good. So they ended up issuing temporarily dilutive shares as collateral for the new loans contrary to what they had said before that the shares would be pledged by large non-insider shareholders. Without the temporary "fake" dilution the fully diluted eps would have been 1.33 x 1.042= 1.39, slightly higher than Q1'14 eps of 1.38.
yes RSI now at 88+ technically way in overbought territory. But if instis are involved anything can happen. My WAG (wild ass guess!) is this may be a group around Burnham and Dan McClory and related to yesterday's PR about SJAP. Seeing Peter Rosta (?) now on board is an extremely good sign re. SJAP. I may be dead wrong.
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=66461914
sorry can't recall that name.
wow. Ask:
CSTI 100x 16.70
NITE 100x 16.70
PUMA 100x 17.50
CANT 100x 18.00
Sly: it pains me to hear that a die hard long like you left just before this stock woke up. Hopefully you will get back in and join us all at the $100 party. Wishing all the best to you,
Dan
Take it easy NJM. I got the email alert at 5:12 pm today so a few minutes before Empty's post. It has nothing to do with the size of my or your holding.
last year June was a busy month on FN , with 10 new listings compared to only 3 in Sep and 5 in Oct. With luck we may be on FN even as soon as June, my birthday month hah.
this page shows 10 stocks began listing on FN b/w Mid June and Mid Sep last year. Exchanges donot go to summer vacation it seems.
http://www.nasdaqomxnordic.com/news/listings/firstnorth/2014
I tend to agree with Empty. Would not be surprised to see listing approved within 2-3 weeks of application. I remember having seen a few stocks begin listing on FN in July or August last time I looked.
Pete: in my experience as long as the call is in the money and has a positive intrinsic value (however small) it has a chance of selling at at least intrinsic value (up to 5c which is the minimum allowed bid in most cases) even in the last hour of trading on expiration day with practically no time value left but never below. Whether an order gets filled or not of course depends on current liquidity, supply/demand... I have rarely (never) seen a ITM call option trading for less than intrinsic value since there is always a time premium (even a few hours before expiration at 4pm OED) that gets added to intrinsic value that determines the trading price. For example right now the May 15 $2.5 call (with only 2.5 trading days left) has bid/ask at 0.90/1.30 with intrinsic value = 3.53-2.5= 1.03. There is no chance however that the bid at 0.90 will be filled unless the stock tanks below 3.40 intraday.. If somebody wants to buy it now he has to bid at least 1.05 (if the stock is moving down) in order for the order to be considered. Otherwise he could exercise his call right away at below market and thus manipulate the price further down.The MM uses a computer to sell or buy based on intrinsic value and time premium. So your assumption that the buyer usually pays 25-50c below intrinsic value seems erroneous to me.
Good point Tim. Three ER until expiry!
Or use common sense and eliminate nonsensical PEs of over 100 (eps of 0.001?) and under say 2-3. Then a straight mathematical average should apply as well.
Donot forget also that nobody forces you to keep the calls until expiration date. IOW the call holder can sell them much before that whenever the pps has reached a sufficient temporary high and cash in on the remaining time premium. Who knows where the stock would close at expiry date? I usually set a PT (like 4x to 6x strike depending on the case and your cost) when to sell or convert into shs. As usual donot let greed overcome financial discipline and common sense. As a rule if you can buy twice as many shs using deep ITM and long dated options as you would buying the underlying common near its lowest price that's when you should sell. For example I sold my KNDI Jan2015 2.5 calls (that I had bought when the stock was near 4 in mid 2013) in the summer of 2014 when the stock spiked over $20 for a nice gain. Had I waited until Jan2015 the premium would be not even half of what I got since the stock went back down to about 12 on OED. fwiw
18.3m fd.
I'll shoot for Q1 eps of 1.7 based on yoy rev increase of 50% and NM of 23%.
It's ironic that their largest holding is now a non energy stock.
NJM: I agree. Seven out of 9 seafood companies currently listed on OSE pay a divi with an average yield of 4% (with Marine Harvest's adj. yield at 1.7%).
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=113096018&txt2find=havfisk
If Siaf is to be listed on OSE by EOY, about the same time when they announce their new divi policy, I would expect them to pay a very modest divi in 2016 just "swimming with the flow" as the new Kid on the Block soon (in a matter of 2-3 years imo) to surpass the other kids on the bloc in Market Cap. Lets' say they start at 2% payout in 2016. This doesn't mean a yield of 2% but about 0.5% or less as a start. If 2015 eps is $8, 2% of $8 is a divi of $0.16. If pps by EOY is about $30, the yield would be 0.16/30= 0.5%. That's a nice start considering the exceptional growth the company brings to the table. Imagine how much more enthusiastic the reception on OSE will be if they say they also pay out 2% of 2015 eps starting Q2 2016 and to be doubled every year until a cap is reached at 40% of eps. A 2% eps payout in April 2016 would require a total amount of approx 0.16 x 20m = 3.2m that can be paid on a quarterly basis thus reducing further the impact on cash flow as MF ramps up production next year and etc.... JMO
If you feel it that way you should revise then Post 88355. A projection should reflect the most current assessment imo.
For May 2018 I deemed it more conservative to use the 2017 eps of $11E which will be released by Apr 2018.
Misunderstood your post. Make it $10/year then.
Just for fun I am going to compare the average annual pps gain of these 3 high gainers: two Internet stocks (VIPS and BITA) and one biotech/pharma stock (CBPO) with what we may expect from our ol' agro/aquaculture stock Siaf using the eps projections that RD has compiled in Post 88355 to see how our baby may stack up against the 3 giants you and Napa just quoted.
VIPS: 5 to 30 in 3 years, annualized gain = 25/3= 8.3/yr
BITA: 4 to 90 in 2 years, annualized gain = 86/2= 43/yr
CBPO: 10 to 102 in past 3 years, annualized gain = 92/3= 31/yr
SIAF : 15 (May 8, 2015) to (expected) 11eps x 20P/E= 220 (May 2018), annualized gain = 205/3= =3= 68E/year.
that's about twice the 45-degree growth of CBPO hmm.....
Good the stock needs a breather before the Q1 E/R. Hopefully my buy order will get filled .
Yeah you got it. With a stock like this you can pay your own divi without losing too many Shs if things work out the way we see it.
I have little doubt that we will see a PE of 30 if not matching that of Marine Harvest (42) and Havfisk (41) in a not distant future. But a 4-digit pps? Nah the stock will probably have split two or three times before 2027 IMO so we will likely have more than made up the 1:10 RS by then. Wait, to make a pps of 2580 become 52 we need a forward split of 50 so 5x split of 1:10 ! Dreaming on a rainy Sunday....
I donot really expect to get a yield of 8% in the next 4-5 years, maybe 1-2% unless we get 100m financing at 5-8% APR to buy 55% stake in MF and 75% of remaining projects that we really want to keep. Here is a thought how an average Siaf investor can pay himself dividends from my POV.
Say he typically owns 10,000 shs of Siaf currently and the stock trades at $50 when he needs an equivalent dividend at 8% yield paid. At $50 pps that's an annual payout of $4 x 10,000= $40,000. He can sell annually say 8% of his shs in the first year which would give him the same amount. At that rate it would take him12.5 yrs to be out of shs. But if the pps appreciates year after year (and Company starts paying a generous divi once cash rich) there is a chance he still owns enough shs to draw on the dividend after the first 4-5 years. I am thinking to sell about $2000 worth of shs per month once the pps has reached $30. That's about 67 shs in Month 1. By Month 12 the pps could be at say $50 so I need to sell only 40 shs after 1year of paying myself a dividend. By year 4 it could be max 10 shs per month or max 120 shs per year.
Another way to pay yourself a BIG dividend is to buy as many shs as you can now at 15ish and tuck them in a Roth acct for US residents. In 4-5 years you can draw a handsome (5 to 6-digit) amount if the pps is at 100 or much more. You keep buying year after year the max allowed $ amount ($6500 for me) and you can forget about paying yourself a divi if the stock keeps appreciating nicely year after year as we hope in the next 20 years or so. fwiw
I agree with your 2-3 pps forecast for EOY but if the China deal is wrapped up this year it could be higher IMO. This stock was at $3 without anything a year ago. With so much at stake I donot think that TP and Henry will however let some kind of deal with China slip away from them. It's also in China's interest to drastically reduce lung cancer risk for its citizens which is already very high due to extreme air pollution. So I expect a China deal to be signed within say next 1-2 years. If that's the case I can't really see pps at only 10 in 5 years. Would expect it in the range of 20-30 TBH.
You are right. I was surprised that the eps growth rate was "only" 18% for the first 5-year period.