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~~~~COMPX 1/24/2019~~~~~~~
Previous Close
7025.77 +5.41
6999 SSKILLZ1
6900 TFO
~~~~COMPX 1/23/2019~~~~~~~
Previous Close
7020.36 -136.87
7099 BullNBear52
7060 TFO
6999 SSKILLZ1
~~~~COMPX 1/22/2019~~~~~~~
Previous Close
7157.23 +72.76
7222 TFO
7099 SSKILLZ1
Update ... After earnings the price to straddle on the NFLX monthly is $34.19 vs $53.55 last week so earnings costs an extra $19 .....
reply to:
TheFastOne Monday, 01/07/19 10:38:16 PM
Re: **D*A** post# 1290 0
Post # 1291 of 1300
Maybe I'll change the board name to We got no useful charts but we got a lot of useless information.
Trying to get a grasp on earnings effect on options. For comparison I'm using an in the money straddle.
NFLX has earnings on the 17th ...
Expiring on the 11th, a $315 call and a $320 put would cost $19.60
Expiring on the 18th, a $315 call and a $320 put would cost $40.65
Expiring on the 25th, a $315 call and a $320 put would cost $44.40
Expiring on the Feb 15th, a $315 call and a $320 put would cost $53.55
NFLX earnings ... Close on day before earnings .... Straddle would cost $30.75.
On morning after earniings, a straddle would cost $10.80 ... so the "premium" into earnings was roughly $20 to straddle.
That is still inflated ... last Friday a straddle would cost $7 on Friday AM.
~~~~COMPX 1/18/2019~~~~~~~
Previous Close
7084.46 +49.77
7150 TFO
7021 SSKILLZ1
Update-NFLX earnings this week
Here's another comparison ... using ask for in the money options ...
To straddle last week would have cost $16.15 (without earnings play)
This week it includes earnings so cost is $$34.90
Close on day before earnings .... Straddle would cost $30.75
This week NFLX is up $13 ... $340 calls were $15 on Fri close, now $21.20
That would be 40% gain Puts went from $14.75 to $7.50 roughly -50%.
Seems like the stock will need to move 10% on earnings to cover the cost of a straddle.
~~~~COMPX 1/17/2019~~~~~~~
Previous Close
7034.69 +10.86
6996 SSKILLZ1
6922 TFO
~~~~COMPX 1/16/2019~~~~~~~
Previous Close
7023.83 +117.92
6996 TFO
6969 SSKILLZ1
(TWITCHY FINGER)
~~~~COMPX 1/16/2019~~~~~~~
Previous Close
7023.83 +117.92
69996 TFO
6969 SSKILLZ1
~~~~COMPX 1/15/2019~~~~~~~
Previous Close
6905.92 -65.56
6969 TFO
6855 SSKILLZ1
C reported today, I didn't look until mid-day.
The stock gapped down and rebounded strongly closing + $2.24.
A straddle would have made money if you knew to exit the puts at the open.
Before earnings ...
C @ 56.69 ... $55 monthly call @ $3.25 ... $57.50 put @ $3.40 Straddle = $6.65
Afterearnings ...
C @ 58.93 ... $55 monthly call @ $4.35 ... $57.50 put @ $1.30 Straddle = $5.65
So a marginal straddle if you exit right and cost of a monthly straddle dropped by $1.49 after earnings. (price for in the money call & put)
Before earnings ...
C @ 56.69 ... $56.50 WEEKLY call @ $1.64 ... $57.00 put @ $1.72 Straddle = $3.36
After earnings ...
C @ 58.93 ... $56.50 Weekly call @ $2.49 ... $57.50 put @ $.22 Straddle = $2.71
Still a marginal straddle if you exit right and cost of Weekly straddle dropped by $1.78 after earnings. (price for in the money call & put)
KC - u and NO - u
Bring on next year already!
~~~~COMPX 1/14/2019~~~~~~~
Previous Close
6971.48 -14.59
6934 SSKILLZ1
6886 TFO
NFLX earnings this week
Here's another comparison ... using ask for in the money ...
To straddle last week would have cost $16.15 (without earnings play)
This week it includes earnings so cost is $$34.90
IND-u
LAR-u
LAC-u
NO-o
Thanks
BBBY would have been a good straddle ... could have bought both sides for $1. They reported and the stock gapped up $2. The calls went to $3.30.
I think it is the exception, mostly because even going into earnings it was low premium.
~~~~COMPX 1/11/2019~~~~~~~
Previous Close
6986.07 +28.99
7067 TFO
6934 SSKILLZ1
~~~~COMPX 1/10/2019~~~~~~~
Previous Close
6957.08 +60.08
6899 SSKILLZ1
6776 TFO
C reports on the 14th ... it's a playable option, a little light on option volume but spread is low and return is better than most.
Right now C is at 55.50 so you could play at the money both ways for .76 each for the weekly, which expires on the 11th. And the monthly which expires on the 18th is 1.44c / 1.46p
Indicates it should be a cheap earnings play next week.
edit: the reason for lack of interest as an earnings play may be the fact they are within 5% of forecast in last 3 qtrs
Previous Close
6897.00 +73.53
6969 TFO
6825 SSKILLZ1
I've only lost on straddles ... The interesting figure will be the Feb monthly ... the "earnings premium" should disappear. Right now the Feb monthly has to include the earnings premium and I believe it will disappear the day they release.
Based on info so far it seems NFLX would have to gap $16+ in order to break even.
I'll be tracking C, NFLX, INTC and FB as they release this month. I'm looking at the daytrade possibility on the day they release.
Maybe I'll change the board name to We got no useful charts but we got a lot of useless information.
Trying to get a grasp on earnings effect on options. For comparison I'm using an in the money straddle.
NFLX has earnings on the 17th ...
Expiring on the 11th, a $315 call and a $320 put would cost $19.60
Expiring on the 18th, a $315 call and a $320 put would cost $40.65
Expiring on the 25th, a $315 call and a $320 put would cost $44.40
Expiring on the Feb 15th, a $315 call and a $320 put would cost $53.55
My assumption is playing earnings is expensive
~~~~COMPX 1/8/2019~~~~~~~
Previous Close
6823.47 +84.61
6900 TFO
6747 SSKILLZ1
~~~~COMPX 1/7/2019~~~~~~~
Previous Close
6738.86 +275.35
6767 TFO
6660 SSKILLZ1
Thanks for the stats ... it's been years since I picked, looks less sheepy than I remember.
~~~~COMPX 1/4/2019~~~~~~~
Previous Close
6463.50 -202.43
6340 TFO
I've had trouble opening my account with e options. They don't think I'm me, I can't figure out who the hell else would want to be me.
I'm looking into firstrade overall they seem pretty good with no fees at all for options. Know anything about them?
~~~~COMPX 1/3/2019~~~~~~~
Previous Close
6665.94 +30.66
6559 SSKILLZ1
6511 TFO
~~~~COMPX 1/2/2019~~~~~~~
Previous Close
6635.28 +50.76
6776 TFO
6599 SSKILLZ1
Hou-o
Sea-u
Lac-u
Chi-u
Congrats on the perfect season... With a nail-biter for your grand finish
~~~~COMPX 12/31/2018~~~~~~~
Previous Close
6584.52 +5.03
6499 SSKILLZ1
6430 TFO
~~~~COMPX 12/28/2018~~~~~~~
Previous Close
6579.49 +25.14
6529 SSKILLZ1
6340 TFO
And your late Christmas wish is he left his passport behind?
~~~~COMPX 12/27/2018~~~~~~~
Previous Close
6554.36 +361.44
6666 TFO
6499 SSKILLZ1
You know the saying ... figures lie and liars figure.
I've always known that options pay more against the market, that is on an up day the puts will have a higher return and vice versa.
I think I can qauntify that. On a down day or an up day it will be close to 20% higher for opposite. On a day when it changes it will be a little under a 10% dif.
I can't quantify what happens on a flat day ... we ain't had any of those.
PHI to win and JAX to lose ...
And a Merry Christmas to Eli and all
fred
Merry Christmas gents