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Yes it has held much better than I expected.
I would guess far more people than I expected bought in the low 20s.
Or far more longs sold in the 40s and reloaded and reloaded in the 20s.
But that EOY selling will always be a factor.
In this particular stock there will likely be a whiplash effect.
Great news is close. Many will wait till the last couple of days to take their losses and reload in the first weeks of the year.
We will see soon enough. I think if you want to buy it will have to be before Jan 15th
No. Not enough time to hit 12 unless kim misses another estimated timeline.
.15 is just as doubtful but it could touch there before new years if momentum happens.
I understand that some need a villian to point at to claim they are bashers or whatever.
That's fine with me.
It wont stop my opinion from being voiced. I have been supporting KBLB 10x longer than "some" have been here. I am not going to stop just because someone doesnt like my opinion
Nothing I have said is bad. I am sure it intimidates some who have made bad choices when the excitement got the best of them.
But if I were in the red right now I wouldnt worry so much about it. The pps will recover your losses pretty soon.
But those looking to try to get shares at a low price would benifit from ignoring the exaggerations of grandeur every week.
The company is doing quite well.
That doesnt mean the price wont go lower based on market reactions to things like EOY selling or delays in timeline.
Most importantly....I am attempting to maximize the profits of those looking to enter by not trying to talk them into buying before the bottom.
Nothing wrong with that.
If anything is better than trying to convince people we will never see .25 again.
Or .24...23..22..21...20...19...18.
Buy time is very soon. But not quite yet.
Maybe 4 more weeks or so before we make a move up
Never count on level 2 when in the doldrums.
The 19000 could have 50 million right next to it that cant be seen
JMO but next week or the first couple weeks of 2020 will be when to buy.
The pps will probably close under 19 today if the volume is any indication.
I agree with golfer man that the BB pinching is going to produce a move. I just dont expect news to move it so the move will be downward for a bit.
It's actually held up much better than I expected in the last couple months.
I am hoping for a bottom to show in the next 10 trading days.
I think the only thing investors are worried about is the OTC.
99.9% of OTC stocks are scams and it's hard to believe that this one is the one in a thousand when they're doing what any typical pinky is doing.
This isnt to say this is a scam.
It's actually the opposite.
Pinks put out ground breaking PR all the time because they are trying to artificially inflate the price with hype while doing nothing.
KBLB is actually doing what's in the hyped stories but after seeing so many scams the typical OTC investor wont trust the hype.
Kim has to actually produce what the hype says.
That is where Kim slips.
He says "november 2019" but it doesnt happen till Feb 2020. In the months between the 2 the failure ends up overshadowing the late success.
Kim needs to stop telling us what hes planning and start telling us what hes doing.
I dont want to hear about a split that may or may not happen or an uplist that fails to materialize.
I do want to hear the actual number of worms in a "batch"
He must give investors the info they actually want and stop trying to convince them that "soon" or "eventually" is a date. That's not what anyone wants to hear.
JMO
What expertise is needed to force a country into pushing regulations through without the process their laws require?
I dont think there is an expert on the planet that could do that.
Fact is Kim isnt slow. He is delayed and obstructed.
Otherwise he would have been in VN less than 2 years after MS was commercially ready.
The 5 year delay was not Kim's doing. And there was nothing Kim or any other expert could have changed.
Considering the last time they did the process the reeling took 6 weeks I think "months" is the proper term
That is also 300 million sold at .25 or better that were bought under .10. Those that bought and believed their money was good were proven correct1
Yes the people who bought a few months ago have not recieved their return of their investment yet.
But expecting that return so quickly is a bit premature.
If someone bought at .25 and are complaining because it's at. 19 have 2 issues.
They have not paid their dues and need to learn investing is a time game.
Or they just dont have self control and talked themselves into thinking that catching a falling knife was worth the risk.
Either one has to wait for their return.
But many will have taken a loss due to their hasty emotional decisions
Actually a good thought I had not considered. But I dont see that happening because Kim's supply doesnt exist yet. His first year production if far too small for a big contract.
And I doubt a bank would use future sales as demonstrated ability to pay till it is actually demonstrated.
If Kim had a single sale under his belt from VN he would have that ability.
JMO
Debt isnt dilutive at all its collateralized.
Kim has no collateral for any sort of massive financing.
As for your question about bankers, my answer is no they wont loan him a dime just because they know him.
Banks dont run on friendship.
If he wanted 10 million and had 9.5m in collateral friendship may approve the loan.
Most likely without collateral Kim will be stuck giving shares at about a 20% market discount with warrants for future shares.
As long as it isnt financing through convertible shares it's all good.
But unless he wants an OS in the billions he must RS first
We have had this conversation before. A MASSIVE amount of financing would be great but Kim isnt getting that. You hope hes getting that but you have yet to identify any form of non dilutive financing.
Never heard of anyone just handing out money for anything besides debt or equity.
I also have never heard an explaination for collateral for any form of debt financing.
My first year estimate being incorrect isnt really much of a difference.
The only thing that number really has any relevant relationship to is the guess of revenues needed to make this a $4billion company and uplist without a RS.
It simply makes the price per ton 75x outrageous vs 150 times unfeasible.
Thank you Hope.
Should have said it the first time.
I am trying to figure out where 4 came from.
Yes seriously.
You mentioned DS 2.0 and samples given in 2016.
Do you think the sample they saw is relevant now?
And when I say sample I am not talking about a spool of thread or square of cloth. I am talking about a prototype of a product that a client may wish to make.
For instance a shirt that is woven to a specific request to test.
Or a thread braided to exacting standards to attempt suturing tests.
A sample could and likely will be just more squares because that is the sample stage our VN silk is at.
I expect the batch Kim sent to the reelers will be sent to be woven into a few possible fabrics to see which one a client would like some prototypes made from.
I dont see those being tested and approved any time before june.
In the mean time Kim will learn to increase production and logistics to expand. By 2021 they should be ready to sign a 10-20 ton a year contract.
But as time goes on those estimates and guesses will adapt.
The conflict I see is the news of the $50m wont come before a RS.
We know we are a month from any production news. What will push the pps to .70?
He wont get a contract till hes got samples out. He wont get samples out for at least a month.
And with a 4 ton year estimate I dont see any contract until mid year after examples are approved and production can give a constant amount. Contracts beginning in 2021.
So if Kim could get to .50 and stable do a 1:10 RS, deal with the pps loss and keep it between 4 and 5 bucks with 85m shares.
But then the finance deal will be at least 15% dilution.
At that point the pps will likely touch below the $4 on dilution because we are not uplisted yet.
He needs to uplist before phase 2 I believe.
And has to RS before uplisting simply because of the time between now and production
No. My understanding is quite fine. I just dont assume Kim has a pile of PRs on his desk waiting for strategic release.
I think things are going to go just as Kim says. But Kim is a public company and never speaks in absolutes. And Ben doesnt either.
Because I realize that, I actually am supporting Ben's statement 100%
Because I believe that a 1:40 is the lowest possible RS needed.
Ben never said it wont be at the highest ratio.
While you are right I think you are expecting far too much at one time.
Kim has never been one to explain in detail. If he did it would be fantastic and honestly catch me off guard.
I do expect the largest RS. reason being it allows much more time for things to occur.
The pps can fluctuate and not be a worry about going below a threshold price.
Kim doesnt like to worry about the day to day price so he will buffer himself and have far more ability to finance with lower dilution numbers. (Which people like)
He also has very low productivity estimates for the next year. Beating those would be good but Kim doesnt have a record of beating estimates.
All this tells me the pps will be pretty volatile for the first year.
Best option for Kim is a steady release of progress news without a feast or famine approch.
Your 1:10 means Kim can get the pps to .50 and keep it there. It's possible but he will be hanging on a price threshold cliff.
At .50 the RS may drop the pps .10 and an uplist would be put on hold pending growth.
Why do a minimum RS risk your timing being off and having to do a second RS at 1:20?
JMO
I would like to see your way work out.
I agree with you if we only consider the words on paper.
But I am also including the pps needed to uplist and the fact that Kim's letter he stated " We held our annual shareholder meeting and gained shareholder approval for our move to uplist."
So if you take into account the $4 pps needed and the fact that the only "move" being mentioned in the shareholders meeting was to approve the RS.
It's fairly easy to conclude that there will be a RS and it is necessary.
The way I see it is people dont want to see a RS because they are afraid of what it will do to the pps. But insisting that there wont be one and trying to reassure people that there is nothing to fear since it wont happen is actually going to make people react worse.
A split is neutral. If everyone understood that and realized it's the value of the share and not the number of shares that is important a RS would have no effect at all.
I accept that there will be one and have no fear of it happening. I intend to take advantage of that fear when it happens.
But I am not going to pretend that Kim can get a $4 price with the current share structure just because I am afraid of a RS.
IMO he should have done a 1:40 when this was at .50 and got it over with. The PPS would not have fallen as far from the top if he had.
Golfer he is correct. The only vote that had anything to do with the uplist was the RS.
If you notice on the proxy card the vote topics are BOD the accountant. The RS and the uplist. But there is a side note on the uplist proposal
PROPOSAL 4- Uplist to a national securities exchange (this is an advisory vote).
According to the SEC...
Unlike a binding vote, advisory votes do not require the company or its board of directors to take a specific action. The company's board of directors may consider advisory votes and may follow up with other communications or dialogue with shareholders as part of its deliberative process in making policy decisions.
We didnt really vote on an uplist. We just let Kim know how we feel about it.
If the RS was only a "maybe" it also would have been an advisory vote too.
It was a binding vote. There will be a RS. The ratio is the only question.
JMO
I agree patrik.
If it was off the table and he said that in the letter the pps would be over .30 right now.
How Bob?
What do you see as a path to a 4 billion dollar company?
Production will for sure produce a higher pps but $4?
And the $4 needs to be maintained. This means the $4 billion market cap must be correct fundamentally.
Considering that Kim's estimate of 4 tons in the first year what would the price per ton need to be to produce the revenue needed to make the company worth $4 billion?
I suck at fundamentals but trying to find a comparison of a company with about the same share structure and pps lead me to LUMNF.
$4.05b market cap and about 600m shares.
The revs are $530m a quarter.
That would mean Kim would need a few hundred million dollars a ton for his silk to get the revenues to maintain a $4 billion market cap.
While I admit that this method is no way to accurately estimate the company it does show that Kim needs to do something besides make silk to maintain an uplist pps for a year.
Lowering the sharecount and making 100k a ton for silk could get the pps but without the RS kim would need most of the silk production in Vietnam under his control.
That wont happen for years under the best circumstances
JMO
We will see. Its JMO but Kim's statement...
They have an investor, Ron Potts. If they dont have him then they dont have asset control.
They have to be refrigerated or frozen for about 10 days before they will hatch.
But can be frozen for about a year without substantial losses if I remember right.
I think that there is more than one way to look at it.
Announcing a RS is bad no matter what.
He could announce it and have it a week later and the panic sell would require a larger RS.
Doing what he did eased the immediate drop a bit. But when the second announcement comes it will drop again.
Basically the same result.
The idea is supposed to be to increase the pps in the in between the 2.
That can still happen.
But I think where Kim screwed up he tried to buffer the first drop too much. He made a variable in the RS which I think would have been enough but added the uplist as well.
I am hoping he proves me wrong and I get to learn something but IMO that is impossible.
He needs the pps to uplist.
I believe his "uplist by thanksgiving" is actually split and apply to uplist by Thanksgiving.
It makes sence to me to RS on a short holiday week where the market is absent.
The last PR was intended to increase the pps.
It didnt work.
If I am right and Kim does the RS next week he didnt really lose anything. The PPS just continues down as it would have without the delay.
It was a gamble that didnt pay off (yet)
He still has a week.
In the end all of this is pretty much meaningless.
What matters is what follows the RS.
I'm still waiting for the final announcement or another 40 days when the next set of worms are ready
Never said it wasnt real. But if you have been here as long as me you remember all the various ramping up and doubling of eggs and first textiles and first delivery to reelers and first deliveries of rolls.
All also very real.
Fact is the unnamed amount to an unammed client eager to get their hands on samples wont excite anyone who is long.
It's the part after all that the longs are waiting for and is what will move the pps.
When Kim purs out a PR that says he has delivered the first ton of material to polartec for use in some product the pps will go insane.
If he puts out a PR without production but a binding commitment (like a 25 ton over 3 yeat contract with polartec) the market will go wild.
If JPMorgan purchases $25 million in restricted shares the market will go crazy too.
But for the most part we are desensitized to these sort of PRs
It was completely expected and priced in.
When kim delivers a stated amount of silk to a client with a name people will take notice.
But an unspecified amount to a mysterious client isnt enough to get hyped up about.
Longs have seen this PR before. The market wants a suprise.
We are just in wait mode
We will just keep crusing a long and losing little bits at a time till we get something new.
Thanksgiving was not a deadline for a RS and never was.
The deadline for the RS was july of next year.
Uplisting was what was supposed to happen by Thanksgiving.
The RS was assumed to be needed prior to that uplist.
So I think your assumption may be backwards.
No uplist by the deadline wont help the pps at all.
So it really comes down to what the market believes.
If the market is confused about the deadline like you are the PPS will climb.
But if they are waiting to see if Kim lives up to his uplist statements the pps will drop at the lack of uplist
I think you are wrong mojo. Kim was not trying any sort of direct contract with the military.
The military doesnt make it's own textiles.
Kim would never land a direct contract to sell the military silk.
He landed a testing contract.
If the army liked the fiber they would direct Kim to work with a vendor they use to produce a textile the army would want.
They would direct the vendor that they wanted a material containing our silk.
We would work with that vendor to produce items the military wants to test
It cant be. Which would make someone wrong. Since there is 10 pounds pictured on their website....
Do I need to state the obvious?
"Time is money".
No place is that more true than the stockmarket
No not at all. Their partnership deal is perfect.
They both agree not to exist without the other.
No need to prove you wrong. I am not the one looking for facts.
"Third party verification" is pretty open ended.
Maybe start with what you are trying to verify.
Tensile strength? There is a peer review out there that speaks of tensile strength.
Pretty unimportant on it's own in the grand scheme of things.
It's only a single figure in a math problem.
So clarify what you want verified and try googling that.
Don't get me wrong. Its doable but Kim will need hundreds of people.
That will take time just to find them.
And you are only looking at plucking the cocoons off the rack.
The feeding and food preparation Cleaning testing boiling reeling is going to take many more.
I think Kim's 4 tons in the first year is a decent goal.
While that 4 tons are being produced Kim will likely be expanding into many smaller locations spread out around the primary mulberry source.
He will be able to harness more communities that way and have more access to employees.
Employee transportation has to be considered.
They walk and bike a lot so working 20 miles away is a problem
Sure things have improved.
But consider your picture and realize that your 112m would require 70,000 of those pictures
If someone cant find something that doesnt mean it doesnt exist it.
You just need to look harder.
And I seriously doubt that Kim is a dumb dumb just because someone else cant figure out how to google search correctly
If you actually wish to know I suggest you go to the company website and search through the PRs for a few years and you will find what you are looking for.
Assuming there is no answer because someone wont do it for you is not how you find facts.
If you require a link this will work...
https://www.kraiglabs.com
Pretty much JMO but the entire draw of spider silk is its strength.
We dont need a new way to produce mundane silk and goo products are nowhere near mundane silk. Forget the strength of spider silk.
That actual biological function of silk proteins tying together is still an unknown for the most part.
What they are doing is basically pushing clay through a hole and wanting concrete to come out the other side. It wont work without the right chemistry
Yeah they bypass it with chemical reactions and machines.
But they cant seem to bypass the worm itself.
That's why goo is still years away form even coming close
Personal opinion is no. I dont think Kim wants the first commercial sale to be "trash".
That silk is definatly a sellable item but I think he would collect a large quantity of "trash silk" before selling it. And the batch of worms isnt large enough for a production batch.
There are uses for all the types of "trash silk".