Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
The AH price move is on 100 shares, so useless.
The end of day irratic moves are to confuse indicators. There are tons of people using scanners. Alot of those scanners use close prices in their calculation.
For instance we were in the red minutes before the close that would have meant a down day, obv being negative etc etc.
Now with this close we see a +21% upday (my platform shows a 17 cent close, google .145 close) which will trigger scanners. Stochastics will have crossed and the close is above the moving averages.
So many systems will notice this. Thats why ever so often the close isnt reliable. You will see it alot also on stock that have been steadily gaining dring the day, but the MMs didnt finish loading up. Last minute they just slam 50k shares or so through. Dont ever forget that they can see all our bids and all our stops.
Painting the tape is lucrative. But apart from the tape painting there is another reason why stock get end of day orders. Big boys often dont want to give away their intent untill the very last moment. This is something you will notice on delistings. Take the russell 3000 delistings for instance. Those were slammed down (in some cases up to 60%) in the last minutes of trading.
I am just posting this as a general remark :)
Entered my first hold 05/19/2009 @0.30 and ran a few scalps. But I dont see how that has anything to do with my comment on the non WAVE talk.
Noted specifically that the earnings date is kinda pressing short term :) So I hope they will respond
Perhaps take the non wave talk into private messages?
Price is below intraday 200 ma resistance. So it will have to break out again. Over multiple days we have strong support below us and next resistance in the form of a MA at 0.18.
I dont know if they hedge, just keeping up the option open. Thats why I asked for such info in a mail directed at investor relations of mesa.
Based on assets alone 0.40/0.50 would be viable. If the earnings are up we will see more.
I dunno, the only party that would benefit from lower fuel prices would be delta for instance, because they have to refund less.
The fuel benefits related to Go! are there, but that is of minor effect on the company.
The low fuel prices might even lead to losses related to hedges using futures or the likes. (just guessing here)
And does that company also have its fuel paid for by others?
Mailed the company with a few questions such as
1) when are earnings due?
2) would earnings have been positive previous Q without the tax charge and could we expect positive earnings since the one time charge is gone?
3) does mesa hedge fuel and is there a possibility of making a loss on that? Do the contracts such as with delta pay for fuel paid or fuel value. Basically that means that do they repay what mesa paid (including possible losses on hedges) or do they pay what you would have to pay at the pump (so they dont repay hedging mistakes)
4) to what extent would the employee reduction, debt retirement have an effect
5) does delta still pay the monthly money to mesa or have they discontinued paying? The latter would mean that Delta still owes a crapload of money to mesa.
Will keep you girls posted on answers
Wave is a long term play. Enjoy these dips. Scalp some shares and rebuy lower. When looking at the charts the downside is around 0.40 to 0.42. Will add 20k IF we get there. A short term trendline was broken and now we are looking for support or a reason to move above resistance.
With the sick lineup of deals/contracts it just means that this will move higher. This is a long term play in my book. Started a nibble hold by adding 10k shares today.
Just shove it into a deep dark hole and pull it out in a while.
Anyhoo gl on the trade and remember that low volume moves are quite meaningless. Use low volume dips to add / avg down.
Thats why OBV and other volume indicators are so usefull
OBV is simple:
Start at 0
Add total volume of day if it was an up day
Deduct total volume of day if it was a down day
So when people are accumulating OBV goes up
When people are distributing OBV goes down.
However it is important to notice how much the OBV moves up and down. Lets say that avg volume is 1 million shares and that the price moves up 50% on 10 shares. Then that would mean that the price made a big move, but the obv did not. Meaning that the move is not real.
Now applied to Mesa.
We saw HUGE volume on the upmove and minor volume on the downmove. The stock went down from 0.2 to 0.11 and the OBV hardly budged.
The only explanation that I can think of is the float dry up which allows for the stock to trade like a low floater. If there are only 50 available shares than that means that a 10 share buy could rocket the price up (or down).
I have not backtested my next statement:
I have the feeling that there is increased volatility right before a stock makes a real move. As sellers and buyers run out it means that there wont be people selling at my bid or the other way around. So the only way that a stock can make a directional move is to have one side of the trade (albeit bull or bear) to increase its buy price (or low its sell price) up to a point where the other side of the deal accepts to trade.
So normally shares flow freely in the price spread. But as shares dry up the spread becomes irratic and jumpy. Much like a low floater.
EXAGGERATED EXAMPLE NOT RELATED TO MESA!
In short it is possible that a stock of 100 million float with 1 million shares free to drop 80% on 100k volume.
The fewer shares are available the easier it becomes to slam a price down (well only if there are no big sizes on bid).
By slamming the price down people get spooked. They dont realize that it is happening on low volume and they start selling. That leads to an increase of volume and an accellatated descent.
The exact same is possible in the inverted sense. It is very easy to drive a price up when the volume has dried up. This is the kind of movement I prefer. Because such movements happen quietly and people will miss it untill it is nearly too late. Then people will flood in and buy the top driving the price up alot.
Remember the fewer shares are out there trading the more volatile the stock gets. It turns the stock into a low floater and those can go all over the place on minor volume.
So this is why you should distinguish between high and low volume moves.
after hours 0.16 is on 31000 shares or so. Pretty decent. Noting amazing though.
19:45 $ .16 9,300 pcs
19:45 $ .16 5,000 pcs
19:45 $ .16 16,877 pcs
19:43 $ .1525 11,500 pcs
16:01 $ .1321 101 pcs
16:01 $ .155 100 pcs
Ryanair has "profit explosion"
This comes from a news article where I live .. cant be bothered translating it to english. Just look up the ryan air earnings. THis is GOOOOD news for the sector. Would mean momentum.
Good luck peeps!
Seems so, hence my "let the shakeout start" post earlier. Depending on the dip I'll be adding up to 50k shares or so.
indeedily
What I particularly like about mesa is:
They have a good current ratio. This is the current assets to the current liabilities. The ratio is near or over 2. This means that they have twice the amount of money to pay of any short term obligations (debt, not the security)/ Basically they are not at risk of drying up their cash and getting insolvant. This is important because otherwise they would have to attract expensive credit lines.
There was a debt conversion which was VERY bullish. A dollar of debt was traded for 1 or 2 shares max (dont know the exact conversion rate). This is important because for one dollar one could have bought 5 or even 10 shares. But they traded a dollar to far fewer shares. That is bullish. They chose fewer shares but to remove debt pressure. THis is an indication that the debt holders have hope (or particularly desparate to get out).
The total equity grew right after the crash
As of 2008-09-30 109.66
As of 2008-09-30 125.97
As of 2009-03-31 95.56
The last line is lower because they took a 68 million tax charge related to the share issuance -> the reason why a share buy back is not going to happen.
Their total equity is thus 95.56.
The current market cap is 20.25.
This means that if the company were to evaporate over night that every share would be worth 95/20 = aboutish 4.5 times the current share price. 4.5 * 0.14 = aboutish 50 to 60 cents.
They have more CASH than the market cap. Basically that means that they have more money cash in the bank than that the share price currently is at. This is literally buying 50 cents for the price of 14 cents. The problem here though is the quarterly burn rate. Fuel is NOT a real factor in the burn rate. Well it is if there are losses on hedging. The personell cutbacks will decrease the burnrate and that is good. Previous Q they had a profit when not taking in account the tax charge. But we must not forget what the money earned on the share issuance has for an effect on the earnings/cash levels.
Mesa has flatlined as where its competitors have dropped and moved up again. One of the reasons was the lawsuit (well 2 actually by delta relating to 2 contracts) and that was won. The other factor in play here were statements made by the CEO referring to a possible BK. This is not an issue since the statement related to Uniteds contracts and that was extended. (or it was the other of the 3 contracts they have - not delta).
Mesa is a value play in basis, then an earnings play. On top of that it has set up for a nice swing. But the fun starts when we get to squeeze the 200 ma daily. We have an additional catalyst in the form of a complete float dry out (the reason why I keep reposting that we want slow and steady rise and not a bunch of chasing idiots). As long as the float stays as dry as it is then we get nice steady and very big upmoves. The more idiots come in the more erratic the stock becomes and the higher the chance that it may irrationally pop down, so it might only take longer to reach the levels where this stock is supposed to be.
If the big boys are playing this then that means it is no use to complain or cheer about price movement. They can toss the price (and us) around like there is no tomorrow. It strikes me as logical that they would try to slam the price down to load up cheap. So think twice about getting scared.
ps: added on edit: perhaps do some DD into the possible losses on fuel hedging.
After Hours Volume: 402 shares
After Hours Last: $ .1321
After Hours High: $ .155
After Hours Low: $ .1321
After Hours
Time (ET) After Hours
Price After Hours
Share Volume
16:01 $ .1321 101
16:01 $ .155 100
16:00 $ .1326 101
16:00 $ .15 100
1
the estimate is from 2007
Date Broker New Old Comments
4/4/2007 Prudential Equity Group Price target goes to $9 from $16. Reflects broker's move to neutral on regional airlines.
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/MESA/analystestimates?subview=snapshot
But im quite done trying to put in some sense into all the wild guessing and big number screaming. I'm in for a huge azz amount of shares. A spike to the $2s can easily earn me a nice house. I just really dislike all the wild hyping. Post after post after post containing the same information/BS rehashed.
None the less I expect that we will go to 40 cents to 50 cents initially. When we hit that I will think about partially selling, at least focussing on finding reasons to hold. If the earnings are particularly good I might consider holding longer.
A very noobish indicator that I use for post crash prices are shareprice right before the september 2008 crash. I do not see any reason why any stock would gain a higher price than the price they had at the top of an entire bull market... There are exceptions, wave being one or em. But there is no reason why mesa would be selling at THIRTY TWO times the price that it was in september 2008.
If people are in this for the long run than I dont see why they post so much on the short term. Think about that one. Allways think about what people post and why. In a general sense: Dont get suckered into dreams of golden mountains, no matter how much "proof" someone posts. Expecting the most will lose you the most. Allways validate the claims. Fuel is not relevant, the number of emplyees is not 1700 but 3700. The earnings estimate is from 2 years back.
Im not bashing this stock. Im just bashing the kool aid hyping. Its useless and it will get people hurt. Shamefull display of greed. None the less, mesa's current price is not logical, the fear that drove the price down is not rational and will soon be found to be wrong. Earnings will be good (enough) and us the early birds will reap the benefits of the market losing it's mind.
Technically speaking we are on a swing correction. Price flipped above the major moving averages and is now ready to be carried higher. There is a catalyst in place in the form of earnings. THe luck we have is that previous quarter was negative to the one time tax hit. That gave us ample time to load up a few hundred thousand shares. So good luck, watch the technicals, consider taking some profit right before earnings. Locking in profit wont hurt.
$16 is not far down the road, its not even ON the road.
That would put the price at the jan 1993 highs. This stock has not traded anywere near the 10 since august 2006. That is a date well before the market crash so that means that the company was not capable to sustain such highs on it's own.
Dont get me wrong. would be sexy as heck, but i'm just a bit allergic to these kind of make belief numbers. I would even go so far as if to say that these were statements to sucker people in. Not that there is alot that can go wrong here, but 16?? come on.
How the heck would they get a shareprice of $9 to be reasonable when their income is mostly fixed by contracts. Planes still cost money and the people dont work for free. So indeed. Lets start with $1 as a first HIGH target. 0.40 / 0.50 is alot more reasonable shorter term. And if he is waiting for those magical $16 numbers then I dont know why he is posting here since it would take many many years and some miracles to get to that price. So riddle me this, why would someone post such kool aid numbers?
/me is making friends, but seriously .. there is no need to try and get people drunk on imaginary numbers. I propose to be more realistic and conservative. Lets work with decent numbers, decent expectations. When earnings come out this will most likely run. So that is enough reason to get in imo
let the shakeout begin. Cheap shares soon! Someone slapping 500k shares at ask to scare peeps, perhaps even stop losses. None the less we will get a nice chance to add at a discount :)
Are you in a hurry then ? :) Support just got broken after the 30% upmove in 2 days. Just some consolidation before we move up again. 0.141ish is support as well.
0.126 is max downside for support
Here some relaxation music with a hidden message :)
Its often just a order to trick people into a pre market rush. 100 isnt a serious order size on a 0.18 price now is it? Comissions alone cost 3 times more. Only take premarket and after hours seriously when it is with volume (10s of thousands). Some stock like FAZ and FAS allways have massive premarket volume.
Premarket trading is nearly suicide though, rarely represents reality. Take the initial mesa spike. Up to 0.225 and never reached that again. (will soon though)
Kind have the gut feeling that we might go flat for a day or 2. But with earnings so close I might be wrong. Reason for the feeling is that we must reunite with the 200ma on the hourly chart. That has been the source of the last 2 smaller spikes.
Chart - currently at breakout level
http://rt1.c.prorealtime.com/ProRealTimeNew/tmp/img_12487018976274.gif
I know. It was 0.18 on 100 shares.
08:08 $ .16 900
08:07 $ .16 100
07:50 $ .18 100
So again: Allways check the volume on AH and PM prices.
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/ExtendedTradingTrades.aspx?selected=MESA&mkttype=pre
allways check the volume on nasdaq.com .. was 100 shares.
Sector Snap: Airlines stocks rise again
Airline stocks climb again after final batch of second-quarter earnings
* On Friday July 24, 2009, 1:13 pm EDT
The AMEX Airline Index rose 3 percent, with nine of its 13 component stocks higher.
That beat the broader market, which leveled off after Thursday's rally that sent the Dow Jones industrials above 9,000 for the first time in six months. Disappointing earnings from Microsoft Corp. and Amazon.com Inc. slowed the Nasdaq index and provided more signs that consumers are still spending cautiously.
The rise in airline shares also countered another small increase in oil prices. Benchmark crude for September rose 11 cents to $67.27 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at midday, as oil prices had climbed $1.70 per barrel this week.
Six of the largest nine U.S. airline companies reported profits for the second quarter, although the group as a whole lost about $600 million. Still, that was less than some analysts had forecast.
The peak summer vacation travel season is well along, and traffic always drops in the fall. UBS analyst Kevin Crissey said that while airline revenue has been improving, "the starting point, however, was a deep hole."
July revenue per capacity, a key measure of financial performance for airlines, is down about 16 percent from last July, August could be off 20 percent, and September "could be the worst month of the year," Crissey said.
In recent days, airline CEOs gave wildly ranging outlooks for travel demand, with US Airways' Doug Parker sounding upbeat and Southwest's Gary Kelly warning things could get worse for the airlines. On Friday, investors seemed to be listening more to Parker.
In midday trading, shares of US Airways Group Inc. jumped 34 cents, or 14.8 percent, to $2.64; Delta Air Lines Inc. shares rose 5 cents to $6.11; American Airlines parent AMR Corp. gained 18 cents, or 4.2 percent, to $4.47; and United parent UAL Corp. added 17 cents, or 4.9 percent, to $3.61.
Continental Airlines Inc. shares rose 53 cents, or 5.7 percent, to $9.77; Southwest Airlines Co. gained 5 cents to $7.18; JetBlue Airways Corp. picked up 14 cents, or 2.8 percent, to $5.06; AirTran Holdings Inc. rose 20 cents, or 3.1 percent, to $6.65; and Alaska Airlines' parent gained 48 cents, or 2.2 percent, to $22.50.
Would have to read em up in the quarterlies. I remember it saying something about only fuel mattering to the go operations. The go operations are 4% of the business. Rest of the fuel charges are covered by contract.
wouldnt that be 4% of cost of fuel and not rev?
NEWS ? New routes for mesa ? Or is this not 'our' mesa?
Airport announces Allegiant flights to Phoenix
Posted by admin on 7/26/09 • Categorized as Airport, News
Officials with Allegiant Air and the Central Nebraska Regional Airport on Tuesday announced the start of new air service to Phoenix, beginning Wednesday, Oct. 14.
***
Flights will leave Grand Island at noon and arrive at Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport at 12:30 p.m. Wednesdays and Saturdays. Flights will leave Phoenix-Mesa at 7 a.m. and arrive in Grand Island at 11:20 a.m. on both those days.
John Fenyes, Allegiant Air sales director, said the service will begin with an introductory one-way fare of $79. Those flights must be purchased by Aug. 12 and will remain valid through Jan. 31, 2010.
via theindependent.com
Source
Related posts:
1. Airport to negotiate with Allegiant about Phoenix flights The Hall C
2. New Allegiant route to give Phoenix-Mesa airport its 15th nonstop destination Allegiant
3. Traffic study for Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport MESA, Ariz
http://www.flyinsider.com/airport-announces-allegiant-flights-to-phoenix-10858.html
Can you please enlighten me how fuel is important to mesa, not airlines in general, but mesa in particular.
They have the contracts with delta, united and the 3rd. Then they have 4% of their revenues coming from GO!
The contracts indicate that fuel is paid in full up to a certain level. But I seriously doubt that such high prices were relevent during previous 2 quarters. The GO! fuel use is minimal compared to their entire set of income related to flights. So yeah lower fuel prices are relevant to 4% of their income or so ..
Please correct me if im wrong, i'm recalling that 4% from the top of my mind.
Im not good at making earning estimates so what I basically do is take the concensus and dividing it by 2. Then apply a P/E of 6. So lets assume crap earnings of 0.10 then we would still see 60 cents or so. Earnings will most likely be alot higher than the measily 10 cents I take as base. Heck we can even have earnings of 0.6 to allow for a near double in price. So even if we are off by a longshot we still double :)
So many things indicate higher profit though. 14 days till liftoff !
Q2 earnings transcript (THIS IS PREVIOUS QUARTER NOT THE ONE BEING REPORTED ON ON AUGUST 10TH)
http://seekingalpha.com/article/136964-mesa-air-group-inc-f2q09-qtr-end-03-31-09-earnings-call-transcript?source=bnet
shortsqueeze stats
Mesa Air Group Inc. $ 0.15
MESA 0.02
Short Interest (Shares Short) 1,934,300
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 0.2
Short Percent of Float 1.45 %
Short Interest - Prior 1,928,000
Short % Increase / Decrease 0.33 %
Short Squeeze Ranking™ -0
indeed 2 million shrot but percentual not alot 1.45%. If anything shorts were adding instead of covering. Earlier posts link a chart for the pennant chart pattern.
*barney the dinosaur mode*
And remember kids boredom leeds to overposting!
*exit annoying purple dino mode*
Often news lights up an entire sector. Take the bios for instance. Big news on a stemcell result immediately leads to its peers to get some bids as well. So you indeed have a point.
Good examples are the casinos atm.. One gets good news and most of em move up. LVS is a VERY nice buy btw (not in, but considering a hold with 18 to 20 target (long term play))
Following is not THE reason for spike, but a factor that surely has contributed to the spike. Also it is a generic description of the pattern that happens so often.
After the inital spike alot of the shares were in the hands of high buyers/chasers. Imagine the total available float as a single bar which is devided into sections. A large section was related to weak hands.
As the price followed a common chart pattern (the pennant) the section of weak shares became smaller and 2 other sections increased. One section that increased is that of the traders that bought at a lower price and are not yet hurting up to a level that they want to sell. The second growing section is that of long holders.
When the section of weak shares dwindles the stock stabilizes and bottoms out. There is just not enough volume left to push the price down. This often happens when a volume nearly equal to or greater than the available float swaps hands.
As sellers dry up so does the volume. That transforms the stock that behaves like a low float stock - volatile on low volume.
Then at some point there are no sellers left. Price dips the usual cent below support right at the moment it was supposed to break out of the pennant. And that ushered in the reversal.
Now the second conceptual part. Selling pressure. Say that I want to load up what would be the best way? Have the sellers sell em to me at my price instead of me buying at their price.
When the sellers dry up it is BULLISH and people often misunderstand why. They think that the price moves up because people apply buy pressure. Well it that were the case it would imply more volume. The reason is simple.. noone wants to sell at such a low price. That makes the sales at bid dry up. SO the ONLY way to get shares is to bid higher and higher. The people that didnt want to sell at low prices still dont want to sell. Those who bough stock on the way down also havent had enough pain to move em into a sale. Also remember that the volume dried up and that the stock behaves like a low floater then. So any buying pressure will toss this stock around. Then add the dumb traders that bought the top, sold the bottom (or near) and that dont want to miss out on the trade.
The earlier theory coined by someone that it was short related is NONSENSE.. there are only few shares short on mesa and those that are short deserve to be wiped out because it doesnt get any more stupid than this - referring to shorting a high volatility stock with positive court news finishing up a pennant formation.
Anyhoo .. any burst of volume will attract numbnuts that chase. USE THAT! Look at the patterns on CTIC march to june, WAVE may to june and so many others. It is a standard pattern. For every spike the section of dumb holders on the tradeable float grows. That section needs to reduce in size. Very often the selloff is in volume equal to the volume used for the spike up .. wierd I know .. but this is a number backed up in a number of books that deal on subjects of volume and float turnovers.
It blows up with dumb traders, it needs to deflate to smart traders, volume needs to dry up to the point that noone wants to sell, then the only way to get shares is to buy more. Low volume creates volatility and that leads to a breakout. That leads to dumb traders chasing and inflating the stock .... and repeat.
How do you think that will affect mesa? Merely airliner momentum leading to more sector interest or do you ponder about some direct action related to mesa?
and 2 weeks till i get half my house in cash *grin*
well it will be a bit longer but hey I got time.
Dont pressure peeps into taking too big a hold. People should not put in more than 20% of their money into 1 stock. On large accounts not more than 10%. Unless the position is hedged with options (kinda hard with pennies though)
Yeah, though I kinda dont care that much about short term. THis is a long term for me with an additional scalp pennyflip position. Would prefer to see low volume and few holders up till the 200ma break. Then the weak hands may flood in and buy the short term spike top so that we can re-enter with a free 20% profit a day or so later.
Though the earnings will be sexyness on a stick, so i dunno if the spike will sell off.
Lets just wait and see.