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where is the AWWWWMAAGGGEAAWWDD AH 0.19!!!!!!! post?
yes its 100 shares :)
nah, volume was just pathetically low today. Dunno if that is a bullish signal since it may mean that there are only few people willing to sell. Ergo only way to get more shares is by bidding up the price.
Dont want to be too early, but the hourly moving averages are all showing a rise. 50 100 and 200 are all curling up. This may be the start of a trend!
Need confirmation though.
we have a floor of a 100k bid
notice how such sized bids are used to drive prices up and down. Few days ago we had these sizes at ask and price went down.
Companies that want to buy or sell huge lots have the market makets split em up in lots of 100 shares. If they would sell 2.000.000 in one go the stock would either rocket or drop dead.
It is called an iceberg order. So when party 1 has an iceberg order and party 2 buys 50k shares. You may see TONS of 100 sized bigs.
thats the only explanation i can come up with atm.
the spreads are too small and the stock is WAAAY to low priced to normally warrant such trade sizes.
been mailing with a few friends regarding the 34,990 income last q. Might be related to "reduction in cost of revenue IE. operating expenses"
sexy :) thanks for sharing!
interesting close. Notice how other days were a selloff at close and this is a buy in at close. We are above short term support lines so we might be seeing an uptrend if volume picks up .
We also closed above the resistance line I spoke of earlier. Its kinda an anchient resistance, so i dunno how it will affect.
Volume was CRAAAAAP .. but so was overall market volume (consider looking at the SPY for instance, this doesnt bode well). A low vol test of new highs might indicate retrace. But since 1k is such an important line .. i dunno .. really dont.
we opened above a resistance line that connects the december pivot high to the july 2nd pivor high. nothing major though.
I think that the GS buy date was 2009-03-31 and that the buy was FILED 2009-07-16
anyone know what this is on the income statement?
Total Other Income/Expenses Net 34,990
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=MESA
Its positive and very high. Higher than the entire year before. It might have to do with the issuance of shares..
Made it very clear that its a rumor and I included the link where I found it. It is not my intent to start or fuel a rumor. We just have to verify its validity to be able to completely dismiss this but of info.
IMO this info one should completely disregard the rumor, dont let it mess up judgement.
What kind of actions could we undertake to find out whether or not the rumor holds truth?
Yep have to agree there. This makes em very dependent on the contracts. Delta will be terminated next year (unless there is some exceptional situation as in total recovery and whatnot). The other 2 contracts are sound.
btw sorry for overposting like a caffeinated gerbil with ADD, but I just feel that reevaluating a hold over and over is important. Especially with key dates coming up. I'll try to cut back hehe.
IBD states that EPS Due Date 08/18/2009
http://www.investors.com/StockResearch/StockCheckup.aspx?symbol=MESA
that might mean that we may have to wait till the 18th max?
BTW anyone here with a deeper understanding of their assets structures? As in which planes are property and which are leased etc etc. And how would depreciation work on leased materials? I take it that that is for the party leasing the planes...?
Thats the only info we can legally work with.
So that info does not incorperate the layoff of 1300 peeps at an average wage of 37k a year was it not?
Does anyone know how much debt was wat reduced in total? Being conversions, payments etc. The exact numbers.
We might be able to calculate how much costs these steps will spare (interest and installment payments).
BTW if for some reason they save up some large amount of money then I hope they use it to kill the debt. If that happens then I am a long long long player.
The reason why I think the $20 price wont be reasonable is simply because their income is capped. They fly by contract and have a minor addional income via GO!
This basically means that the only way they can improve their earnings is to either get more contracts or improve their margins. The latter wont warrant such a price.
As I understand they have tried expanding and failed. The china division etc.
My current problem is that I am starting to get a bullish bias. Basically meaning that I might start to blind myself for the bearish signals. But it's hard to find negative stuff. The potential is great. I am hoping to find reasons why their earnings might be bad to improve my overview, but as of yet I cant find alot to merrit crap earnings.
Exciting times. If this explodes there will be one house less for sale in the city where I live. Paid for in cassssshhhhhhhhh. Gotta love a debt free life. Oh and a vacation to hawaii ofcourse :) Wanna see this sucker up close!
Kinda was referring to the cash levels.
net current assets being 6.8 times the market cap.... seems too good to be true.
ah ok didnt see this reply http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=40122017
So we can safely assume that we are trading at a price which is 1/5th of the company value. AKA buy $10 at the cost of $2
Nice!
RUMOR MILL - can be total and utter BS
As quoted from the site linked at the bottom:
So I work at the PHX ramp for YV (mesa Airlines) and I came back to work today from a small vacation to many new rules, regulations, and one BIG rumor.
Last week, there was a super hush hush meeting at an ASU meeting hall in Downtown Tempe, AZ with a group of Investors for mesa Airlines. Apparently they are very unhappy with the stock performance and wanted to figure out ways to start making money. (BTW, stock closed today at $0.14 today).
One of the rumors going around is that Skywest might have an interest in mesa, and the other was that US Airways might purchase mesa and then get rid of all the Managers, Ops, and Corporate.
Does anyone out there in Aviation land have any insight as to what might be happening out here at PHX?
Any information would be greatly appreciated.
YVPHX
http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/4495040/?threadid=4495040&searchid=4495040&s=mesa#ID4495040
they can cover in 15 minutes at the open or close. So no this will not help. At all. If they would all cover at the exact same time then the price may move a cent or so. whoopy.
Can someone double check the following for me:
307.10 Total Current Assets
167.50 Total Current Liabilities
_______ -
139.60 NET current assets
20.45 Market cap
_______ /
6.8 x
That would mean that they have 6.8 times more cash in the register than that all their shares combined are worth.
Can this be true?
THIS ALONG would warrant a SP of $1.088 !
This would be EXCLUDING earnings projections.
btw one would do well to disregard posts made earlier by people claiming share prices or $10 or even $20 + .. these claims are nonsense and strike me as hyping. Consider the long term price history and you will see what I mean.
Some starts on shorts
Mesa Air Group Inc. $ 0.14
Short Interest (Shares Short) 1,934,300
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 0.2
Short Percent of Float 1.45 %
Short Interest - Prior 1,928,000
Short % Increase / Decrease 0.33 %
Short Squeeze Ranking™ -0
% From 52-Wk High ($ 0.57 ) -307.14 %
% From 52-Wk Low ($ 0.01 ) 92.86 %
% From 200-Day MA ($ 0.13 ) 7.14 %
% From 50-Day MA ($ 0.12 ) 14.29 %
Price % Change (52-Week) -71.40 %
Shares Float 133,650,000
Total Shares Outstanding 146,611,621
% Owned by Insiders 15.25 %
% Owned by Institutions 35.00 %
Market Cap. $ 20,452,321
Trading Volume - Today 2,771,494
Trading Volume - Average 10,076,400
Trading Volume - Today vs. Average 27.50 %
Earnings Per Share -1.30
PE Ratio
Record Date 2009-JulB
Sector Services
Industry Regional Airlines
Exchange NAS
******
The EPS is annualized I think. If the calculation is that they take previous Q and multiply that by 4 then they are making a nice mistake :) THIS IS ASSUMPTION AND GUESSWORK! (can you say taxcharge times 4?)
Anyhoo, there is NO SUBSTANTIAL SHORTING. So no use posting on that it the shorts that bring the price down etc etc.
What people tend to forget is that it can just be a LACK OF BULLS. That would explain the low volume. Buying AND shorting leads to volume. So no volume means NO INTEREST period.
To come back to statements I made earlier. I like to see things creep up on low volume. The more attention this gets the more idiots jump in. It's like pumping steroids into a growing child, bound to go wrong as it grows too much too fast. It's not healthy.
I am kinda confused on when the earnings will be. Has there been an OFFICIAL statement? The number of 10th of aug we are working with is the date that AOL has as tentative (can change).
08/10/2009 * 18:00 Q3 2009 Mesa Air Group Earnings Release
Currently im doublechecking my position and tripple checking my DD. Will post things of interest if they arise.
MY ORIGINAL POST STILL STANDS:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=39931383
Hmm interesting article.
One positive thing though. Delta hedged 9% so that is not alot of loss.
The delta contracts with mesa forfeit on a BK of either of the 2 parties. So the lower the "losses" for delta the better.
None the less over I dont think this will hit MESA all that much since only 4% of their income is based on their GO! operations. And that is where the hedging damage would be incurred.
The rest of the fuel is paid for by the contracts.
Wouldnt mind a close at 0.134 or below -> would mean stochastics would get oversold.
Would mean stronger buy signal monday
Volume is too low to trade this small a spread. So its not that.
These are iceberg orders. Very large orders split up in 100 share chunks to allow for accumulation (or distribution) without moving the price.
If a party would want 1 million shares they could slam it into 1 order and driving the price up like crazy. So thats why bots are used to buy/sell in small bits.
Often there are pauses and there is waiting for certain triggers such as moving averages, technical indicator signals and what not.
Regarding the up trend... we are right at resistance now including the 200ma on the 5 minute chart. That needs to turn into support first before we could even start an uptrend
On the hourly we are below both the 50 and the 20 ma.
Daily is looking sexy, only the 200ma above us, rest is about a cent or 2 below us.
But with this low volume all the short intraday support and resistance lines are kinda useless.
btw connect the highs of today and the 2 previous days. (on daily chart) Monday will be of interest, upmove or down a cent to support and then bounce.
Might even see a slam down over the moving averages to shake stops out and to scare people out of shares. Keep in mind earnings MIGHT be in 5 trading days.
Holding about 15k here after selling some at 0.60 from 0.30. Main horse im betting on is MESA :)
Niiice. Too bad some sold the bottom hehe. Again: VOLUME is king.
And the ask was eaten. another 135k shares in safe hands.
Who is the turd selling 135k shares at 0.14? Prolly impatient. That ask will get nibbled.
Correct me if im wrong but didnt the aloha renaming thing get shot down because the aloha name was sold directly to MESA instead of allowing for others to bid on the name? Or was that some other situation.
What would be the longer term branding benefit for using ALOHA?
Chart and some explanation
http://rt2.c.prorealtime.com/ProRealTimeNew/tmp/img_12490496233781.gif
Price retraced to the purple (50) moving average and is headed up to the 20 ma. This may lead to a wedge formation. The 50 ma is an obvious bounce line
Notice the TOTAL LACK of volume on the last few days. If there is NO volume at a support test, then it will hold. Same applies to a resistance test.
On such low volume it only needs 2 or 3 sellers to slam the price down (as happened). The price moved from 48 to 43 on 200.000 shares. Pathetic.
The stochastics is signalling a buy due to the crossover and being in the oversold are.
RSI is turning it seems. But nothing real.
OBVdidnt move that much on the down days.
Nice shakeout. Thanks for the shares. IMO
What court case?
As allways technical indicators should not be used alone. Use multiple indicators to support one another. Also keep in mind that certain indicators such as oscilators work well in one market condition (range bound), but give wrong signals in another market condition (trending). Stochastics is a good example of that.
A mess? They ditched their losing business segments. The only one that is left is packetvideo and that is becoming an industry standard. It is just a long term play.
Just noticed that a number of stock had steap selloffs in the close. Was kinda obvious someone wanted the price down since they placed 90k shares at the ask. If you would want to ditch such a position then you do it with a hidden sale.
We are near the support line, crossed it in the last minutes of trade. The volume at supoprt is pathetic. If im not mistaken it was about 85k for most of the day (pre close). This strikes me as people not wanting to sell.
Gonna do some extended charting when I get home.
Southwest Prepares $113.6M Bid For Frontier AirlinesLast update: 7/30/2009 1:35:17 PM
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) is preparing a bid of at least $113.6 million for carrier Frontier Airlines Holdings Inc. (FRNTQ), which will be sold at auction by a bankruptcy court next month. The bid is higher than that from regional carrier Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (RJET), which had offered to buy 100% of Frontier's stock upon Frontier's exit from bankruptcy protection for $108.75 million. Struggling Frontier, which has been operating under bankruptcy protection since last April, confirmed that Southwest had submitted an initial proposal to acquire it. The bid for Frontier comes at a time when U.S. airlines are downsizing to match falling passenger traffic. Southwest, which carriers more domestic passengers than any U.S. airline, has expanded low cost service to most major U.S. markets. But this year, for the first time in its history, Southwest doesn't expect to grow. However, the airline said acquiring other airline assets - such as it did with ATA airlines - wasn't out of the question. Southwest became a direct competitor to Frontier more than two years ago when it added service to Denver, where Frontier is based. Southwest Chairman and Chief Executive Gary Kelly said Southwest sees a strong fit between the two companies' cultures and commitment to customer services. The move would allow Southwest to expand its network and boost its presence in Denver, where Frontier is based. Frontier said it currently expects to emerge from Chapter 11 this fall. Interested bidders for the company must submit iniital proposals by Monday. Southwest's shares were recently up 18 cents at $7.85. -By Kerry Grace Benn, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2353; kerry.benn@dowjones.com (Ann Keaton contributed to this story) (END) Dow Jones NewswiresJuly 30, 2009 13:35 ET (17:35 GMT)Copyright © 2009 MarketWatch, Inc. All rights reserved. Please see our Terms of Use.
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****** This may add some momentum to the sector
that is kinda the range that I am thinking as well (not based on that analyst though). It could be more, but I just like to mentally increase bad factors and decrease positive factors. That way you will allways end up with very conservative numbers. If the stock is still a screaming buy ....
They have syphoned off people, that means they ditched excess people, but it may also mean fewer flights and what not (prolly not since they have contracts related to the amount of flights etc or was that seatmiles/hours ugh).
0.10 would be decent.
As a PE I use 6 in the current market.
So one buck should be doable when using these numbers.
Anyhoo a big ass multibagger!
Although I dont believe in analyst ratings there is something in our favor. There is only 1 analyst so that basically says nothing much. The estimate is 10 cents and imo there is a big chance to beat that by alot. So perhaps an earnings surprise.
0.42 0.43 is daily 50ma support
following is a general statement and not meant as a reply (aka im not lecturing hehe)
if that goes weekly support is at 0.38.
Doesnt look all that pretty indeed, but the upmoves were just sooo damn aggressive. This will have to bleed out its weak hands and consolidate.
OBV is turning into distribution which is kinda sucky.
btw 0.44 has been solid support in the past. So with the 50 ma moving up we might consolidate in the 0.41 - 0.44 range.
Todays down move was on VERY LOW volume, so it doesnt mean much.
Could be the float drying up.
Stochastics are moving into oversold land and we are nearly at a 50% retrace or so, just above.
Actually a nice time to add on deep dips.
Downmove resulted from attempting and failing to break 0.50 resistance a number of times. And with the high volatility we had before it means that alot of the shares held are in the hands of chasers. Those will absolutely have to bleed out first otherwise we wont move.