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nah I dont agree with this being a potential pump and dump. It would be if mesa had nothing to offer. Pumps often happen on the potential of for instance FDA approvals where it COULD be a golden mountain etc. I consider the standard you-hear-it-all-the-time buyout stories as pumping UNLESS there is real information backing it up.
But to come back to the point: if mesa had no money, if mesa was not cash rich etc etc then it might be a pump/dump candidate. But mesa HAS money, mesa has ALOT of money, their assets are so much higher than the market cap. So there is nothing to pump. There is nothing to artifically inflate, for now the only thing that could happen is the stock moving to the position where is should be.
Once the price moves up to a fair value THEN additional inflation would be risky. But we are nowhere near to that point.
So first the undervalued setup has to rebalance to realistic levels meaning that mesa price will have to move up (and it will).
When it makes that move up imo the intent should be the right one. If the price moves up in anticipation of a buyout then the holders gable on that. When the rumor turns out to be fake, they will dump. When the price moves up in the anticipation of reaching a fair share price to value then there wont be a dump. Perhaps a bad explanation, but I find it hard to explain.
All in all, we dont need pumping, we dont need wild cowboy tales that will only lead to false expectations (creating the wrong motivation to hold). The undervalued aspect, contrary to the buyout speculation, IS a real situation now and more than enough to expect a big move up.
On top of that will be the earnings...
It's good and all that people are looking into the potential, but imo it's not good to post about it in such a way that it's intended to attract more people and thus inflating the stock price with the wrong kind of share holders.
We have seen a nice and steady increase over the past few days and on the volume explosion we see a selloff. Gimme boring and steady 20% up a week over high volatility any time.
BTW do you peeps also feel that lately we have only been getting negative news? We have been newsless for a while and suddenly multiple sources start posting negative stuff. Opinions on that ?
heh, yeah sorry about that, I just have a very mathematical approach to things. I just dont see what the added value is to post 'hope' messages. What is the use of restating certain 'if this then that' situations over and over. Ofcourse takeovers should be discussed but why not level headed instead of if this happens then <insert some fantastic gain in dollar value here>.
Surely im not the only one that feels that such posts have certain emotional effects on certain people. It's not that hard to keep discussions factual, relevant and off of the sensational tone(hard to find the right words on that last bit).
I mean no offence and I know that I reason too abstract. But when there is alot of money riding emotion should not be a factor.
replies are prefixed with >>>
Found this post on yahoo board.
Hi 747, I'm a spar kit mechanic and have been in the business for 30 years. I am also an investor and follow the industry closely.
1st off, I like your posts and wanted to say hello.
I'm here to post some bullets on mesa
1. Mesa has the upper hand on Republic in HA due to fare pricing and service.
>>> the company setup and financial/debt structure are not comaparable. Fares may be in favor, but is that upper hand healty? If they are decreasing their fares up to the point of minimal gain or ver loss on flight.. then that argument is void (THIS IS A GENERIC REPLY TO THE TYPE OF STATEMENT, mesa is not doing this (as far as I know) I just dont agree with this kind of sweeping statement)
2. Idle planes has been a common problem in the industry for the past year or so. I service a lot of these planes with spar kit replacements, other works include vertical and hortizontal stabalizers, etc. These idle planes in the industry are being upgraded for sale and/or be put back in service. The idle planes that mesa has have to be addressed on the 8/18 conference call. If good news, that alone will dramatically increase share price.
>>> true, on top of that I expect that some service costs on leased planes are covered.
3. As you know, recently mesa won the injuction against delta on their contract with them but what I assume that most people don't know is that mesa filed separate suit for lost revenues on what I believe were the CRJ 900's. Any positive progress on this would be a boost.
>> Delta is "only" 16% of the income. I doubt that delta has cancelled payments. The WANT to stop paying, but they werent allowed by the injunction.. Am I mistaken here? Is delta paying its monthly dues or is it not?
4. Mesa moved from JFK to CINN. This has dramatically improved effiencies.
5. UAUA operations have greatly improved this past several months and so has united express.
( made a mother load on uaua past 2 weeks )
6. Mesa has restructered debt and issued 114 million shares. Cleaning up the balance sheet is a good thing and now over the last 6 months most of these shares have been absorbed.
>>> Issued shares? Didnt those shares come from debt conversion?
7. SEC is bird dogging naked short selling entities and front running MM's. I've been an investor for 30 years and have been sick and tired of all the unfair advantages the hedge funds and market makers have over retail investors for all these years. Well, the public has made a call to arms finally and the financial crisis has forced the crooked sec to act and work for the people and not their wall steet buddies. This is the 1st time in my life where I think their is going to be a for the better structural change.
>>> this argument is not relevant to mesa. This applies to the market overall and thus is not some aspect aimed directly and specifically to mesa -> thus void. If you give $10 to everyone noone gets a special treatment.
Best of everything to you....
>>> no need to wish for luck, with mesa's position we wont need it :)
I just like to disregard the ifs, anything could happen. They could have a merger, they could have earnings of 40 cents (yeah right), amy whinehouse could stop with drugs or the pope could bless the use of condoms. If is worthless most of the time.
So lets just stay sober and lets not post wild guesses, golden mountain theores and miracles.
There is no need to 'sucker' in the kind of trader that we (well I at least) dont want in. There is no need to post imaginary crap to blind those who lack a sense of normality.
Mesa is undervalued, they have restructured, the sector is improving. But please spare us the take over talks, the $.50 eps guesses etc etc.
Simple REAL facts. I am expecting a post in which you agree and then sum up some more 'hope' arguments to buy as I have seen a few times over.
The simple numbers of mesa should be enough. There is no need to hype or inflate this stock. It useless and if anything it will only mess up the natural progression of the stock. The more dumb chasers come in the sh1ttier the advance to its tre value will be. Personally I do not want this stock to mimic the market. That WILL happen when dumb traders get in. Best option for us is that this increase happens silently, steadily and surely.
So please, yet again I ask, stop the hype posts.
perhaps press the capslock.
half a million shares is real volume. It's related to an engine failure mid flight or something. There is some news out.
None the less, this does not change the game
(well it might if it was on a delta flight)
just wait for the selling to dry up - we need to find support though. Then reenter your scalp hold
yet again. chasers come in and we reverse :) Will they never learn.
surely they wont announce earnings just a few hours of actually broadcasting em. "Hey investors, dont forget to tune in end of day for the earnings. Sorry we didnt warn earlier, but earl, who was supposed to update you all, spilled coffee all over the memo."
btw you guys reckon that they will publish monday? No official news and announcing monday that they present after hours on that day sounds unlikely
Last year was 18th. GAAAH TWO MORE WEEKSSSSSSSSsss *chews last of his nails*
they are trying to press it below support. 59k ask and not much volume nibbling. Go git dem stops yeeehaaawww.
alot of peeps bought in the 0.19 range chasing (check volume during that spike) so shaking out those peeps wont be too hard. (" EEEK I'm down 10% in an hourrrrr" )
was just thinking, the real resistanec isnt 0.196 but 0.2
that is a big number and the sellers at 0.196 were just peeps playing it safe. Not surprised that we dont break the 20 cents in one go.
We are now nearly 2 cents (10%) away from the 20 cent line. So we will go up.
Just check the high open and then the spike up. We were overextended. Oh well. The pressure still remains with earnings coming soon. I just hope not too many shares go from smart traders to dumb traders.
But as was stated earlier.. they might want to beat this down to burn some stops.
0.18ish is support
Interesting Pre-Market Volume: 84,170
we are getting attention!
Pre-Market Last: $ .185
Pre-Market High: $ .198
Pre-Market Low: $ .17
Pre-Market
Time (ET) Pre-Market
Price Pre-Market
Share Volume
09:14 $ .185 5,000
09:14 $ .1876 5,000
09:14 $ .188 5,000
09:14 $ .1886 2,500
09:05 $ .18 100
09:05 $ .18 7,063
09:04 $ .1806 4,300
09:04 $ .1801 300
09:04 $ .18 4,951
08:54 $ .1887 4,200
08:51 $ .185 100
08:40 $ .1887 100
08:39 $ .1813 2,951
08:39 $ .181 500
08:39 $ .18 2,549
08:39 $ .18 4,000
08:37 $ .1859 500
08:16 $ .1859 10,000
08:15 $ .191 200
08:15 $ .19 2,751
08:14 $ .198 9,800
08:14 $ .198 200
08:12 $ .19 1,256
08:12 $ .19 749
08:08 $ .19 100
08:07 $ .17 9,000
08:05 $ .18 100
08:05 $ .18 90
and we have increased media coverage!
http://www.transworldnews.com/NewsStory.aspx?id=108027&cat=1
lately there has been an increase in news. this is good.
kinda miffed that we still dont have an exact date.
If the earnings are the 10th .. are they before the open or after the close? I seem to recall 18:00 but cant find that anymore.
if we gap up open too much I'll sell a lot of shares to rebuy at the gap close.
This is called a paint job. Same thing can happen to the downside.
If you are unfamilliar with this then please read closely.
There are people that run scanners. Scanners can be configured to find stock that match certain criteria. Was it high volume, was it a big selloff, did the 50 ma cross over the 200, was the open below but the close above the 200 ma etc etc.
Many technical indicators depend on the close price of a day. For instance a moving average takes the close of a day and computes an average over a certain period of time using those closes. Such a calculation is based on numbers, much like 3 + 3 or 5/6. So you REALLY have to understand that certain numbers DIRECTLY influence the outcome of such a formula. Imagine what will happen here
(( 2 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 2 + X ) / 6 ) when the X is another 2 or the X is 10.000
it is THAT elementary.
Now consider popular indicators that are used in those scanners. Take the stochastics for instance.
http://www.transitionstrading.com/Slow_Stochastic.htm
one of its factors is: %Kt = ( (Closet - Lown) / (Highn - Lown) )
see the close ? How would it be affected by a high or a low close?
So without going into the details, I just want to point out that it is possible to influence the results of those indicators and the the result of scanners.
This means that the closes are not to be trusted, same goes for the open (the open price is DECIDED by market makers and not some logical result of a transaction).
This is done by painting the tape. It looks nice (or bad when they want to keep the price down). When people dont look at intraday they will think WOOOW what a close without realising that an entire cent move was on 3000 shares. Heck someone could just have cancelled his sell order that acted as a break for the unlucky sobs that pressed market orders etc etc.
Same painting happens in premarket and after hours. ALLWAYS CHECK THE VOLUME TO SEE IF THE MOVE IS REAL
imo 0.18 is the 'real' close.
volume ramping. So previous post on eod sell may not become true. Would be cool to close at HOD for a gapper tomorrow. But that would attract the dumb kind of holders.
Expecting a minor end of day selloff where the day trading waste-of-times take profit.
I seriously dont understand day traders, grow some patience and book gains of 50% instead of $100 here and $300 there.
Currently kissing the 200 ma daily. HEAVY resistance. Might have sideways movement for a while.
Volume went kablooWHEEEE today so that will show up on scanners.
Read my posts earlier: this is why I dont like spikes :) Overreactions to one side lead to overreactions to the other side.
Lets just have the volatility eat up the asks on the spikes.
Simple check chart
http://rt1.c.prorealtime.com/ProRealTimeNew/tmp/img_12495773851701.gif
imo sellers will regret it :)
232.000 shares at the ask. That will go today! MASSIVE DAY!
But gice the ol' lady some time. She needs a breather ever so often.
When we see a small selloff it will be profit taking. We are up 20%, what else do you expect from penny flippers. If it dips it doesnt mean anything changed in the company. So dont worry.
BREAK! let the profit taking start. Dont worry. Let the penny flippers out.
Sold a fraction of my hold to buy me a macbook airrrrr :)
Volume is up alot compared to previous days; indicates change of sentiment as in they are more eager to buy
OBV made new high; accumulation bigger than distribution
RSI curling up; RSI between 50 and 80 is positive trending.
It's clear that we are trending.
Time to dump the range indicators/oscilators and check the trend indicators. (stoch wont be that usefull now for instance) .
Volume is looking very good.
Dont cheer just yet, spike up might be followed with a steady down move. Overall market is selling off so the chasers that just bought might chicken out. But dont worry.
Woop woop stair stepping
yeah check this one out
http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:UAUA
but might just be an MA crossover breakout. (well soo to be crossover)
daily 20 ma crosses above 50
lots of airliners in the green as well
the airlines sector ETF
http://www.google.com/finance?q=faa
Keep in mind that such an etf mirrors only a few weighted stock and as such doen not represent an entire sector. It is strongly affected by the movement of its components.
does it matter if it breaks now, in 10 minutes, today? We all know where this is headed so might as well be patient.
IMPORTANT ADDITION TO DD!!
1. Two peanuts were walking down a spooky road at night... One was assaulted.
2. A termite walks into a bar room and asks, "Is the bar tender here?"
3. "Waiter! This coffee tastes like mud."
"Yes sir, it's fresh ground."
4. What's brown and sticky? A stick.
5. Why are proctologists so gloomy?
They always have the end in sight.
6. What do you call a sleepwalking nun?
Roamin' Catholic.
7. What did the apple say to the orange?
Nothing stupid, apples don't talk.
8. What do you do with a dog that has no legs?
Take him out for a drag.
9. Why can't a chicken coop have more than 2 doors?
Because if it had 4 doors it would be a chicken sedan.
10. Famous last words of a mafia hitman: "Who put the violin in the violin case?"
11. How does it change many dyslexics to take a lightbulb?
12. What did Batman say to Robin before they got in the car?
Robin, get in the car.
13. What's brown and sounds like a bell? Dung.
14. What do you call a guy who never farts in public?
A private tutor.
15. What do you call spending the afternoon with a cranky rabbit?
A bad hare day.
16. Have you ever seen an elephant hiding behind a flower?
That's because he hides well.
17. What was the centerpiece of the annual
Anorexia and Bulimnia sufferers convention?
A cake jumping out of a girl.
18. Where do kings keep their armies?
In their sleevies.
19. Why don't anteaters get sick?
Because they're full of anty-bodies
sorry hehe
damn, this may be it.. watching closely! Where is my popcorn !
Ah nice one! Im glad that its not with a bang. That would only drag the impatient idiots out of the woodwork. I made a number of posts earlier how big moves end up in weak hands. Slow, boring, steady. We just want to keep the sell pressure low. That only works when the float is owned by people who know what they are doing (eg not dumb chasers)
Also I dont think we hae a resistance line at -.15 but more a resistance ZONE around -.15
Patience will show us.
Well that is rather usefull
No fundamental backup, just some random statement.
Something is a "potential q play" .. well britney spears is a potentially good singer and potentially you could have the capacity to make sensible posts.
Too bad for you though that potentially is useless without info to back it up.
But yeah I have to agree with you this "potentially" could end in a BK .. perhaps in 10, 20, 50 years? Potentially they could be the next google. Potentially anything can happen.
So please, if you have nothing usefull to add then stay out.
jeez calm down. Use your brain, pay attention to who wrote what. No need to start panic posts. We have a sensible discussing in this thread. So we keep it that way.
Dmaze misreads the reply which poster44ny made to my question.
Dmaze replies:
"i highly doubt they go bk that would prob be the last thing they do.. huge run about to come any day now... watch and see"
you then completely miss the point on that reply
"And you base your B/k predictions on what?????"
where do you read that dmaze 'predicts' that? Only thing I read in his post is why mesa would NOT go bk. Reading can be hard sometimes.
Follow the discussion thre is NO bk crap goign on. He is merely answering a question that i posted directed at someone else. So hold your horses. READ THE THREAD before screaming.
It's pathetic to see how people completely lose their minds when 2 letters are written. Read the thread.
There was a completely unknown dude that made some post (without any arguments) that this might be a future Q trade. Which is jsut total bullcrap.
Read my stickied post.
So stop talking about it. it is NOT an issue and you should NOT believe crap posts without a fundamental backup.
geeeeeeeeeez. some poeple
And with this you mean ?
Not that it will happen, but to answer your question:
Mesa has 3 major code sharing agreements, meaning that they fly under someone elses name etc.
Those agreements become void when one of the parties changes owner or goes BK