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Over 4 million shares between here and 0.2 .. we will not see alot of selling pressure below that. Maybe a fund will unload, but no fund has enough shares to press this down for longer than an hour or so.
retailers coming in.. so expect dip.
volume will show up on scanners.
The 200SMA is officialy broken. 0.23 is LAST STAND resistance wise. After that blue skies.
Targets estimated 50 to 70 cents range. Massive activity on some other boards.
BIG guys getting in! .. WE DONE IT!
BIG HEADS UP MASSIVE MOVE UP !!!!!!!!!! BIG PLAYERS!
Move over 0.18 one BIG volume. Breakout was on 500k shares in 5 minutes. Nice squeeze. There is a 100k bid at 0.185, that can be taken out in a heartbeat though.
Im guessing a possible retrace to 0.181
Most of the buying was mechanical imo.
Orders were big sized buy blocks in the range of 10k, 25k some even larger. This indicates big players and not retail.
Check google finance chart with 20 50 and 200 sma to see what happened.
If we close above 0.18 we have broken out of AND CONFIRMED the breakout of the daily 200 sma
in short
WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!
added: 180 bid just showed up at 0.187 WE HAVE SOLID SUPPORT!
100k at 0.185 150k at 0.187 and then the 500k shares that switched hands at 0.18 break that wont be sold easily since holders havent lost enough money on em to motivate a sell.
With a bit of luck 1 million + support at the 0.18
Insitution trades for august: http://www.mffais.com/mesa
Looks good. More funds loading up. Far less are selling.
@estrella: thanks :)
@the 250k sharedump at 0.17: struck me as a termination of account or something. Perhaps someone tried to forse a selloff. The timing was rather .. typical. One high volume candle. None the less. 200 d sma support held. Now we are fighting the intraday resistance lines. You could clearly see the volume dry up on the 5 minute chart the farther we got into the 0.17 test. Selling pressure wasnt really there. Lets see what will happen today. Overall market is kinda emotional.
I'm really starting to love the google finance flash charts you can add all kinds of technical indicators such as moving averages. Reason why I like that is because it is REALLY accurate. More accurate than my charting software that doesnt show sub penny.
You can see well what is happening atm.
Price can be pushed through the 200 1-minute sma due to the 20 and the 50 helping out.
test of 200 day sma chart:
http://rt1.c.prorealtime.com/ProRealTimeNew/tmp/img_12501736233038.gif
Very interesting pre market fighing here
20 cents is like the great wall of china.
http://rt1.c.prorealtime.com/ProRealTimeNew/tmp/img_12501667259632.gif
Blue line and circles accent the 20 cents line.
It was the top on the first big run .. so if there are still some chasers left in this stock then 0.20/0.21 will be break even time for em.
We would need some serious volume to slam through in one go, then we would need some buying pressure to stay above (as in not more profit takers than longers).
Some wierd movement on the price action though, hard to tell.
0.2 is an old and important top
0.2 is a mental barrier
0.21 is big resistance so peeps might want to get out early
On the + side a break over 0.2 might trigger stop orders to buy.
Price action is telling us this one will move in the short term imo.
Often you will see a gap up open right after a big day up (like yesterday). Scalps work OFTEN but not allways. So you might just wanna sit back and watch how it plays out. Better to observe the pattern a number of times before participating in it.
It can horribly backfire when it starts running!
PM gain is on 100 shares. Lets see if people will nibble the bait
Futures up big. Alot of signs of economic recoveries etc..
Going too fast if you ask me, but no use argueing with the market
btw can the stickied post I wrote be removed? The financial situation has changed due to the earnings. It's not accurate any more.
tomorrow possible a gap up open. Be sure to grab some gains and rebuy half an hour later.
We are doing the twist around the 200 day sma .. we arent breaking it with alot of conviction, but we will get there :)
A clean break of the 20 cents will start the run!
Check this chart .. where is the resistance?!
http://rt1.c.prorealtime.com/ProRealTimeNew/tmp/img_12501077852655.gif
apart from some minor resistances there is next to NO resistance up to the 29 cents area. 40 cents after that
was a simple retest of the breakout and there was a little bit of fighting between the moving averages on the 5 minute timeframe.
I spy with my little eye a close over the daily 200 sma..
longer timeframes all starting to look bullish and indicate trending.
Todays upday was on increased daily volume.
I do see a breakout on multiple time frames....
Watch for some bullish moving average crossovers.
DAILY starting to look alooot like the ASCENDING triangle pattern.
This means rising support (that thought is backed up by the rising moving averages).
BTW i hope peeps looked into XNN when I posted about it. Adding now would be chasing. Earnings in 2 days. Pull up daily chart to see why this one will be fun.
I'd guess that the base is still the 0.17+ area. We need more volume on the 0.18 to have a base form.
This kinda looks like that there were a number of parties were watching this stock and waited for a breakout to add in. Good sign imo.
Still cant get my head around the earnings but chart action is pointing to a steady move.
Volume boom was related to technical line breakout.
Check http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:MESA
Add techincals 20 50 and 200 ma (can add those just below the chart)
Then zooom out so that you can see multiple days (up to mon 3rd)
I use google finance because those lines are so nice and accurate. (at least alot more accurate sub penny than my charting software :S)
BTW added back 35k trading shares yesterday (so those are shares i have alongside my long account - which I have not sold at all).
Still kinda conservative, but there just seems to be a lack of selling pressure. Keeping my finger on the sell trigger on my trading account, time will tell me wherether to relax that finger or not).
RAN OUT OF POSTS for today :) Editted in my reply here:
http://rt0.c.prorealtime.com/ProRealTimeNew/tmp/img_12499256636478.gif
http://rt0.c.prorealtime.com/ProRealTimeNew/tmp/img_12499257184578.gif
retesting the breakoutline, that held. Then there are the MA's giving support (which are rising).
The specific timing of they buying is me thinks related to the 5 minute chart. Check the crossover.
THIS IS ONLY the technical picture and done quickly
Good luck, cant post more today, will extend my account when I get home.
I still have a load of shares. Terminated my trading account, not my long. Things are just a bit wierd and I want to play it safe. That will prolly lose me some money. Just a bit over cautious.
Stuff is looking nice now though.
Looking alot better now. Gonna move up nicely. Still havent rebought. Have a cent spare to not lose. XNN is where my money is now and that is doing wonders :) Gonna ride that and consider a rebuy of mesa
when I see how the market reacts and all :)
Support on 10 minute is coming to assist the price in a very short while.
It is interesting btw how the support holds.
that is correct. So it might just be longers catchgin the shares.
Somehow I feel that they are comparing the adjusted 2 cents this q to the UNADJUSTED 9 cent loss of last q. Can someone back this guess up?
If we would adjust the tax hit previous q then the earnings would have been 15 cents or so back then.
Wierd stuff.
Cash worries me.
need to recalculate some things here. Still holding shares, but reduced my exposure.
moved some funds into ljpc and ai
closed out 100k shares in total now. Sold 45k just now. AVG gain hmmmmmmmm :)
Grats to the longers. Will increase my hold when things settle down.
prolly aol site.
chart:
we have support on the breakoutline.
http://rt0.c.prorealtime.com/ProRealTimeNew/tmp/img_12499150353024.gif
Seems that that Total Other Income/Expenses Net of 35million did have its effect on the earnings.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=MESA
Made a post about that one earlier. That was the only factor that would lead to 10+ cents earnings after adding back the tax hit. That 35million is bigger in that 1 q than years totalled before. So it may indeed be padding.
25 to 50 cents was never an option imo. Wierd statement and its wierd how they were published. What also is wierd is the PM selloff friday - that wasnt related to the engine news.
None the less, peeps seem to be holding. Not seeing alot of selling pressure (nor buying pressure for that matter. Sold off my entire trading position at the open and rebought some of it back at 0.155 ish.
Bit worried about the cash (since most is restricted).
All in all I am still bullish. I like the twist the media gave to the earnings. Though I need to look into their calculations. They might be comparing adjusted values to non adjusted values.
Average price of my hold was pushed down to just below 0.07 cents so noooooooooooooooooooooooooo worries at all.
Kinda pissed off though that they didnt announce. I allways sell half my hold pre earnings to rebuy the usual drop. (exceptions to the selling and buying apply)
This is heavy volume indeed, friday sell volume was stronger though.
Pre-Market
Last: $ .1896 Pre-Market
High: $ .219
Pre-Market
Volume: 108,700 Pre-Market
Low: $ .18
Pre-Market
Time (ET) Pre-Market
Price Pre-Market
Share Volume
08:24 $ .1896 100
08:24 $ .1896 100
08:24 $ .1896 800
08:24 $ .1896 100
08:24 $ .1896 100
08:24 $ .1896 800
08:23 $ .1899 600
08:23 $ .1899 3,600
08:23 $ .19 5,800
08:23 $ .185 100
08:23 $ .181 5,000
08:23 $ .1806 5,000
08:23 $ .18 4,900
08:23 $ .18 5,000
08:23 $ .18 5,000
08:21 $ .19 100
08:21 $ .18 100
08:21 $ .18 100
08:21 $ .18 100
08:21 $ .18 4,200
08:20 $ .18 1,000
08:17 $ .18 100
08:16 $ .18 1,500
08:16 $ .18 8,500
08:15 $ .18 1,500
08:11 $ .18 6,000
08:10 $ .19 2,000
08:03 $ .195 100
08:03 $ .191 17,600
08:03 $ .19 100
08:00 $ .21 100
08:00 $ .21 2,400
08:00 $ .2188 10,000
08:00 $ .219 2,600
08:00 $ .20 1,300
08:00 $ .20 4,900
08:00 $ .20 2,600
07:57 $ .215 100
07:55 $ .21 4,500
07:47 $ .215 100
07:01 $ .198 100
Opinions on the earnings?
huh? 110M on a float of 140M while there was a MASSIVE dilution as of late. So pre dilution there werent even 110M shares outstanding. Wouldnt that mean that they would have more than 100% of outstanding shares? Are you sure that that number is correct?
0.226 right? previous pivot top. So that would be a good sell for a scalp to rebuy 15% lower or so (0.2 will be support then).
0.2 was a sell since its a 'big' round number.
But hey, all those things are related to the sheer volume.
Should have sold friday since the run up ended at a key time namely 10 to 10:30 (usual reversal point) Anyhoo I didnt take the risk for there wasnt enough downside potential (as I saw it) to risk selling 80k shares. We are very close to a breakout zone (resistance is 0.2 to 0.23 ZONE). Normally pre breakout zone the scalp sell would be a no brainer. On the one hand im sad that I didnt take the scalp (would have been a few thousand) no the other hand im glad that I didnt sell, for that would be a too high a risk a gamble.
In the end trading greed should not exceed the value aspects. For it would suck donkey nuts if one would sell out of greed and miss the run that is based on value.
btw he was spot on: http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=40302400
Good post and I have to agree with you.
The info you provide there is indeed interesting, its just that the 'buyout argument' is used soooo often on any stock. Kinda makes it void imo. But hey if there is a solid chance then it's good to post about it in such a way that it's intent is not to lure more peeps into the stock.
Regarding the charting, personally I combine long and short term trading. My trading position is aimed at scalping out more free shares that on my long term pile. For scalping short term charting is needed. My longer term view is based upon the financials.
So long term is my intent and the short term is to increase my position. I just recon that the charts are also usefull to the short term traders or nervous traders as well. Timing is just very important imo.
Anyhoo ill zip my mouth.
Some useless stuff about geese, the pilot falling asleep thing, the engine failure etc. I just find the timing of all that news in just 1 week after weeks of silence interesting.
Will prolly scare some peak buyers out etc, but nothing big and not relevant for the long term :D
the 17th is tentative as well, 18th is the max date right?