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Also consider the fact that a number of stock comprising the DOW are getting shorted like hell atm. AA and MSFT for instance.
As I posted a few days back: the more chasers we get the more the stock will mimic the market. It will get vulnerable to dumb price action due to idiots not knowing the stock. Alot of the float swapped hands in the run up. Alot of the float was distributed in the last 3 days. Overall the quality of holders will be better and there will be reluctance to sell. On climactic dips I will be adding nice blocks.
* 3M Co. (NYSE: MMM)
* ALCOA Inc. (NYSE: AA)
* American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP)
* American International Group Inc. (NYSE: AIG)
* AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T)
* Bank of America (NYSE: BAC
* Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA)
* Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT)
* Chevron (NYSE: CVR)
* Cisco Systems
* Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO)
* E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Co. (NYSE: DD)
* Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM)
* General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE)
* Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ)
* Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD)
* Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC)
* International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM)
* Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ)
* JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM)
* McDonald's Corp. (NYSE: MCD)
* Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE: MRK)
* Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT)
* Pfizer (NYSE: PFE)
* Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG)
* United Technologies Corp. (NYSE: UTX)
* Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ)
* Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT)
* Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS)
* Travellers Group
Chart included
http://rt2.c.prorealtime.com/ProRealTimeNew/tmp/img_12470692966989.gif
Price is in pennant range (check it - mostly bullish)
Massive resistance in the form of pennant, 50 100 and 200 below price. 50 will be closing in rather soon.
There is no real volume on the sell. That strikes me as that people are reluctant to sell their shares.
Market is bloated, this is not. This is bloody selling at BK pricing which is rather stupid seeing the debt restructuring (lowering their debt expenses) and tossing out well over 25% of their excess personell.
Gonna load additional shares on dips.
Will be watching odd lots to add
With all the red on the boards .. it is strange that we are down only 1/2 a percent.
Floor forming, bids coming in. 73k at bid
shall we just start with 50 cents lol !
Btw atm its suicide to have stock on margin. SP500 is a mere 2 points away from breaking neckline. Make sure you dont get margin calls on you asz
Spikes come from chasing. The spikes end when the smarter traders take profit from loading up well before the spike.
That overreaction to the upside will eventually lead to a drop, a slight stabilization. Then that stabilized price can easily be pushed below emotional barriers. That triggers an overreaction to the downside.
And there its cheap loading up again. Think about it .. its an easy 100% gain from riding this up and rebuying lows.
Indeed earnings starting this week. AA kicked off.
Lets see if someone will try and run mesa down a cent to load up some more.
Hehe someone is having fun here. If someone wants to dump 250k shares than someone would only show a small numbers of shares on L2.
THe only reason why someone wants to show his sell is to scare people into selling. Cheapo shares for whoever is doing this.
In L2 the numbers in the ask/bid may not be real. A 100 share ask at 10.00 could in actuality be 10000 shares.
A 100 buy at 9 could actually be a 10000 buy at 9.1
will look up the vid explaining this kind of crap
SPY 875 is vital! If that breaks market will puke its guts out. Thats why we want decent people in mesa and not nervous penny flippers. This will allow MESA to move independentl of the market
If we move above 0.17 we get a nice setup of a day range breakout play as well. 0.18 and 0.19 have nearly no resistance volume wise, but the 200ma is there.
So with a proper spike up we might see aloooot of people jumping in (triggering buys) -> keep in mind that price will retrace on such a break. Dont think we will hit that today though.
Stoch curlng up again, RSI looking very healthy, OBV dipped next to nothing on the sell days, MACD and ADX looking nice as well. ADX pointing toward a trend start.
OBV is making new highs. Niiice. Might signal breakout
Grr I never have the balls to dump the open and rebuy a 2 cent spread to the downside. Gap up selloff happens over and over and over and over. Bloody easy to grap a free 10% of shares.
Good morning peeps. Mesa definately is in play. Nice screwing around in PM. Stuff will get bumpy
Ok cool, got me convinced to read into it. Thanks for insisting and pointing this out.
this might be of interest:
http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20090707006326&newsLang=en
In addition, NexMed also announced that the results from the comparator study of NM100060 vs. Loceryl, a topical nail lacquer currently marketed in Europe, showed comparable safety and efficacy profiles for the two products in patients with mild to moderate toenail fungus. In the post hoc analysis of patients with mild fungus, NM100060 showed higher efficacy, which was consistent with the results from the two Phase 3 pivotal studies completed by Novartis in 2008. However, the study results were insufficient to support filing for marketing approval.
Vivian Liu, NexMed’s Chief Executive Officer said, “There were lessons learned from the studies which warrant further development of this product. We decided that NexMed will proceed with potential new licensing discussions. We have already received inquiries from companies with a focus in dermatology who are interested in commencing discussions.”
For instance Delta pays for the fuel. Perhaps the Go! operations benefit from the lower oil prices. There are different areas that mesa flies including areas which are not reparated by sea. Wouldnt low gas grant a traveller the option to go by car?
I'm just guessing here, not contradicting you :)
I'll be honest. Im not good at the numbers. Thing that I want to get some clarity on is the debt and to what extent they are making money (and how much of that is real - as in not clever accounting by adding one off income to earnings etc).
Im guessing that it's the profitability that might set it apart from the rest. But regardless of the profit (if any) the cap makes no sense.
Yes the layoffs will have a positive effect, but what effect will it have on the flights?
What a dumpathon ... good luck to the holders. What a pitty.
Hmm didnt think about that hehe. So it will be important to watch out on the newsbreak day whether or not the stock moves. If it doesnt it will indeed mean that the news was priced in.
But then again .. THESE prices for a billion dollar plus revenue company that trades at a 22 cap???
PacketVideo is owned by Nextwave. Nextwave used to have alot more business units but most (if not all) other were discontinued.
Packetvideo makes Twonky. Twonky is a tool that allows for mobile media sharing, but also as a media library.
It is quicly becoming the world standard and is used in an instane amount of things. Mobile phones, xbox, high end audio. They previously made deals with M$, google a number of telecom companies etc etc.
This will be a monster. They have a blockbuster app and people are not realising it.
In with 35k shares months ago (0.3 area) in my core long hold
In with a varying amount of shares in my scalping hold. This stock is just too sexy when it comes to scalping. The scalping pattern is deteriorating though.
The shareprice hasnt really reacted to the docomoodocodomummnsionocum news. Could be related to the dump day on the market, or that it was allready partially incorporated in the share price. I dont know and i dont care.
twonky site: http://www.twonkyvision.de/
Packet video HEADLINES
* July 5, 2009
DOCOMO and PacketVideo Form Strategic Alliance to Accelerate Innovation and Growth in Mobile Multimedia Software and Services
* July 1, 2009
Yamaha selects TwonkyMedia server to power MusicCAST2 Home Audio Product Line
* June 25, 2009
PacketVideo Music Client Powers Versatile Music Service for TeliaSonera Finland
* June 18, 2009
PacketVideo Nominated as 2009 Meffy Awards Finalist
* May 21, 2009
PacketVideo Powers End-to-End Music Service for Rogers Wireless
* May 20, 2009
PacketVideo's TwonkyMedia Manager Named as Finalist in 2009 American Business Awards
* May 19, 2009
PacketVideo's CORE Multimedia Player for Video and Music Powers 10 New NTT DOCOMO Models
* April 28, 2009
Panasonic Collaborates with PacketVideo to Provide TwonkyMedia Server Free to VIERA TV Users
* April 9, 2009
Buffalo Selects TwonkyMedia Server to Power Media Streaming on Nfiniti Wireless-N High Power Router and Access Point
* April 7, 2009
PacketVideo Announces Upgrade to Award-Winning TwonkyMedia Manager Software
* April 2, 2009
PacketVideo Broadens PlayReady Support to Include Multiple Mobile Device Platforms
* March 30, 2009
Philips Streamium Integrates PacketVideo’s TwonkyMedia Server
* March 11, 2009
PacketVideo Music Client Powers Versatile New Music Service for NetCom
* March 10, 2009
PacketVideo’s CORE Multimedia Framework Powers New SoftBank 830N Handset Manufactured by NEC
* February 17, 2009
PacketVideo Music Delivery and DRM Software Powers Subscription Service Launched by Vodafone in India
* February 16, 2009
PacketVideo Brings Live TV to the iPhone
* February 16, 2009
PacketVideo Maintains Commitment to Open Source With Launch of OpenCORE™ 2.0 for Android Platform
* February 16, 2009
PacketVideo’s CORE Multimedia Framework Powers SoftBank 930P Handset Manufactured by Panasonic
* February 12, 2009
PacketVideo Response to Android Security Vulnerability
* February 11, 2009
PacketVideo and Nagravision Turn iPhone and WiFi-enabled Devices into Mobile TVs
* February 10, 2009
New Mobile Phone From Fujitsu Uses PacketVideo Multimedia Software
* January 8, 2009
The Digital Home Has No Walls: TwonkyMedia Manager Ushers in New Era of Connected Home Media
* January 8, 2009
PacketVideo Demonstrates TwonkyMedia Server Support for Windows 7 for First Time at CES
* January 8, 2009
TwonkyMedia Server Quickly Becoming the Industry Standard for Connected Home Media
* January 8, 2009
TEAC Selects TwonkyMedia Server to Power Wireless Audio on WAP-4500 and WAP-8500 Devices
* December 9, 2008
PacketVideo Music Client Powers Versatile New Music Service for TeliaSonera
* November 5, 2008
PacketVideo's CORE Multimedia Player for Video and Music Powers 13 New Models in NTT DoCoMo
* September 23, 2008
If It's Android Entertainment, It's PacketVideo
* August 11, 2008
PacketVideo: Video on a Cell Phone Turns 10
* May 27, 2008
PacketVideo’s CORE™ Multimedia Player for Video and Music Powers 10 New Models in NTT DoCoMo 906i & 706i Series
* April 1, 2008
PacketVideo (PV) Provides First End-to-End Music Service for Mobile and Broadband Access for Canada's TELUS Mobility
* April 1, 2008
PacketVideo's New MediaFusion Content Management and Delivery Platform Crafts User-Centered Media Services
* February 11, 2008
PacketVideo (PV) Mobile Broadcast Receiver Delivers New TV Services to Existing Handsets
* February 11, 2008
PacketVideo's CORE™ Multimedia Framework Named Exclusive Player for Vmedia Mobile Handsets at Launch
* January 7, 2008
PVConnect™ Media Server Software Included in Select New HP Storage and Home Server Devices
*************
the financials kinda suck on this one, but that will come to pass.
http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:WAVE&fstype=ii
This shows that they dont have alot of cash
total current assets - total current liabilities.
That is quite bad.
Im also not liking the growing long term debt. That means that they need to pay alot of their income as interest. Could have grown due to a number of reasons: one of which being that they might have taken the debt to allow for unnatural growth. I doubt that that is the case. Does anyone else have a clearer view on this?
But with the amount of deals incoming and the docodmomdomcododmcom stuff I will assume that there are more people out there that trust this company to come around.
There are special end of day orders. These can be particularly vicious. Mostly used by funds wanting to dump/buy at the very last moment to not wake sleeping dogs. But they are also very nice to manipulate the closes. Most charts look at the closes, most indicators do as well.
So if a stock trades flat the entire day and spikes to 0.12 on minor volume the very last second of the day then all you would see on the daily chart is the big green 20% gain. It will mess with stochastics, moving averages, people will think that it was a pivot point and whatnot.
Thats why you need to check intraday on big gains.
http://rt0.c.prorealtime.com/ProRealTimeNew/tmp/img_12469975361084.gif
making a big low AND a big high in ONE 1 minute candle. Thats market makers for you.
Anyhoo they painted the close as if mesa closed at the HOD. Strikes me as that the MMs are done loading and want to ride this stock higher.
http://rt0.c.prorealtime.com/ProRealTimeNew/tmp/img_12469977780559.gif
OIL has nearly nothing to do with mesa. I thought that it did, but found out from someone on the google boards.
Delta pays for the fuel that mesa provides em etc.
Just bought a subscription. I hate paying for a board, but this one is nice :)
Damn nice close!
last post for me, and a heads up on WAVE (nextwave) !!
Patience on mesa now. Really pay attention to the market atm.
If the s&p500 breaks 875ish we are screwed bigtime on the market!
So take partial gains on spikes, when it looks too good get out partial. The more volatile this stock gets the more this gets into the light. That means that more weak hands poor in. The more the stock will mimic the overall market.
Partial gains will allow for a buffer. If you get a 20% gain scalp it means that the price may go -10% on your initial buy price before you make a loss.
Im patient with mesa, these levels dont make any sense. The recent spikes have also attracted stronger hands. So keep an eye on insider buying/institutional buying etc
http://www.mffais.com/mesa
GL and Have fun!
Will be back tomorrow for some more sexy mesa hehe
there will be some profit taking near the end of day me thinks. THe more day traders are in the more selling pressuse in the end (if the run was bullish, short covering near the end when the day was bearish)
PS Wave is up 2 cents from call hehe. $0.62 + target
The more weak hands we pull in on spikes the more this stock will mimic the market. So now the market turns a bit and the peeps get scared :)
Will add on dips.
ps only have one post left for today hehe.
I dont use bollinger. They are sitting pretty in my chart, but i forget to check em :)
Volume, moving averages 20 50 100 200, macd, adx, rsi, stochastics
Understand that oscilators are NOT usefull in trending situations.
When ADX is below 30 you can use range indicators (macd histogram, stochastics, rsi oversold condition
When adx moves up higher it means stock is trending, that will give all kinds of wierd signals when you use range indicators.
READ http://rapidshare.com/files/163396934/Technical_Analysis_of_Stock_Trends-8th__20Edition_By_Edwards_AND_Magee.rar
That book is god
really learn all the formulas for the indicators such as stochastics, macd etc. I dont mean that you should understand how to use em, I mean that you know letter per letter the formulas.
Think about what kind of price action has which effect on what part of which indicator.
And really really really do some reading into Pump and Dump. Check the patterns ESPECIALLY the patterns in the moving averages and how the distance between those MA's affects volatility.
It will seem as if when the MA's are spread out alot that the price will jump up and down to gather the moving averages. Once they are gathered it will wait for support (for instance 200ma rising from below). When the resistance comes falling down (for instance 200 ma) price will be pushed below some important support, that will scare people out and volume is created. At some point the price will crawl above quicker moving averages and those averages will push it over the 200 for a nice run.
Check your charts. Support came up underneath it and pushed it up. THat created volume and that attracted the very kind of people I have been talking about over and over. This is why we want slow and steady. These spikes wont last, they bleed a bit. Rest needs to return to the stock. Otherwise we will get negative overreactions from people that screwed up yet again.
Take the siri chart for instance. Same pattern over and over and over. On the pike the stock gets laden with dumb volume. X shares held by weak traders. Then the minor selloff and horizontal move. During that period there is a bleed where holders sell bottoms while the stock is resting on support. Often there is a minor spike down through the support to eat the stop losses and to scare the last people out.
Spike up, selloff, treading water, support rises from below, minor spike down to trigger volume, spike up.
Just look at the charts. The moving averages need to curl up. That way a minor price movement can eat up multiple resistance moving averages in one or 2 ticks.
Sell partial to rebuy later, looking climactic to me. +30% in minutes. Watch for signs of deteriorating volume.
Remember to sell into strength. By selling a portion you will retain shares if it moves higher.
edit: out 80k shares. wait for the rebuy, people will prolly try to add on the first sign of support. That will probably break. Might see some more bleeding. (this is the part of trading after a spike at which I suck)
Not yet. If you have real time quotes you should check the order sizes. When they get all dumbazz sized then its people chasing.
We need proper volume to truely break. Current candle isnt showing all that much volume. As i posted earlier i prefer slow and steady. Dont focus on the upside me thinks. I kinda like to focus on the emotional instability of other traders hehe.
Anxious chasers, prolly sold near the bottom resulting from being afraid. Now the fear turns into a fear of missing the run. That will prolly just spike a run resulting in those peeps again buying near a top. (although it is one of a cent or 2 :) )
10 minute stochastic is crossing the 0 line, that is rather nice.
Now we just near steady volume that can nibble away at the ask. Then we move up bit by bit.
Also consider that we ran into the 200 ma on the 5 minute chart. Can be broken though :)
Things are looking sexy, I just hope that the idiots stay out.
0.15 will be a total and utter brick wall unless we get climactic buying (which happens as I'm typing :DDDDDD)
Watch out for imminent drop of a few cents now !
0.13 to 0.16 is a 25% gain in just a few minutes. Profit taking is due.
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm toooold ya! Watch out for volatility now. People will prolly grab opportunities to get out. Big resistance at 0.14, but 0.13 support outgrew the resistance. Lets hope for the best, keep cool :)
OOOH 0.144 jsut one tenth of a cent and we move the candle up to 0.15! (10 minute resistance is there).
Volume coming in. Big orders at bid/ask. 0.134 is important.
That candle breaks 100 and 50 ma on the 5 mintue chart.
That candle breaks 50 and 20 ma on the 10 mintue chart.
That candle breaks 100 and 20 ma on the 15 mintue chart. But will be blocked a cent higher by the 50 man.
That candle has no meaning on the hourly chart.
Faz dropping, market might be reversion.
Mesa has been treading water on support for a while now.
Doesnt seem alot of zeal to sell the stock off - though with the renewed interest (volume) we might see higher volatility if the market makes wierd moves.
0.134 is importnat. THat is rounded down to 0.13 on a candle. 0.135 is rounded up and means an up candle.
@ poster44ny: Do some DD into GS's involvement. Cap + tax and environmental stim crap will be the next big bubble. And where there are bubbles + gs wierd things happen. Late to the party, but allways the one to crash it.
Should be enough to make money on.
read on another board a rather interesting observation: market needs to be down to sell all the bonds
kinda have the feeling market might turn around any time soon
market doesnt seem to have the vigour to break down the nexkline on the H&S
yeah strong reversals often happen on climactic moves. Much like a pump and dump buying spike you can invert the concept for a downward spike. That leads to tails on the chart. That also leads to side effects on a number of technical indicators such as stochastics. Look at the formula behind stochastics and think about how a tail affects it. A tail is a candle that has a relatively high open and close on the candle and a very long line below the close. Kinda like a christian cross.
particularly involving tails:
Alot of technical indicators use close values of candles.
Charting often uses highs and lows.
There are situations where climatics lows (of tails) lead to a downward sloping trendline while charting(when drawing on the lows/highs). But the indicator that uses the closes might give a more flat or even up line. This leads to divergence.
addition:
also think about the market maker wants. He wants cheap shares. Also keep in mind that the opening price of a stock is not some logical result of some trade. They chose a price - often related to orders in premarket which will be executed on open. So when you are bullish on a stock you can get cheapo shares when the stock gaps down.
This low opening, and being close to a 'round number' (in this case 0.130 since we are in a sub penny range) will lead to more pain and anxiety in holders. When such a support line breaks it will trigger stop losses and manual sell orders.
Smarter traders will be there holding a basket to catch the shares that peeps toss at em.
This is why climactic sales are so interesting (unless there is a real reason ofcourse (saytam a few months back)).
Just chek how much volume was slammed through in one candle on the first 0.13 break down....
What works against us atm is that tehre is no momentum in airline stock atm. That might make the stock a bit more news dependent. We will just have to see. At some point we get choppy, i'll flip a few pennies. Besides that there is more money to be used to average down. (unsafe stategy!)
I am bullish biased so my posts are prolly too optimistic.
reaction to rjblue: http://www.stockshaven.com/reiterating-buy-on-mesa/
heh, I dont use bolinger :) Im guessing that the main objective now is losing the penny flippers. Those are bleeding out steadily. The gap down open was interesting, might imply a MM wanting to load up (or not hehe).
The more weak hands we have in the stock the more it mimics the market. So thats what we are seeing now. Again I am at work so I cant use my technicals. Volume was very weak yesterday especially compared to the massive volume before. The technical selloff to 0.117 (selloff related to crossing the 20ma on daily chart) does look like a tail candle down.
But I honestly dont know where we are headed short term.
The overall pattern looks like a pennant and the volume backs that up. We might see 0.12+ to meet strong supoprt on the higher timeframe 200ma.
The stock is acting wierd, important news that was unexpected, that dragged in a nice load of (sarcasm) of flippers. So im just watching the volume dry up, as in running out of sellers.
Overall market sentiment is crappy so that could be abused as a catalyst to eat stop losses or cheapasz loading of shares.
News has been too big for this company to trade at BK level (which is current price). There are other companies that are worse off and have much higher share prices.
So im not worried here.
btw im not subscribed, so at some point I will run out of posts for the day :)
btw2 i make my posts lengthy, i just add my reasoning for those interested.
There is more to it, GS is also the group that pushed the stop on posting machine trading statistics.
GS is up to its usual crooked crap again. Oh well their earnings the 14th will be decent, so that will help the market.
Funny that you mention GS - sabotage!
http://www.themarketguardian.com/2009/07/is-a-case-of-quant-trading-sabotage-about-to-destroy-goldman-sachs/
Got a few sellers at 14 (15k) to be expected. Posted about that earlier. Key levels will trigger sell sentiments for people that rode the price down. That resistance might lead to some choppyness. But if that resistance can be nibbled away slowly it wont spark overreactions either way.
Dow just went green. So that is cool.