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since its above us it is resistance, once that gets broken it might act as support.
If you check weekly charts you will see that 20 cents will be where the 200 ma will be in a bit.
Will be a veeeery interesting level to watch since it would mean a 200ma break, round number break and breaking a huge volume level. If that level goes with volume ....
I agree with the undervalued statement. I just prefer to be conservative. My stance has nothing to do with not wanting to be disappointed by focussing on the worst. I jsut dont want to become overly positive in such a way that my judgement gets clouded.
Upcoming earnings will be very interesting indeed and im positive that they will earn us a pretty penny. I just like to focus on reasonably obtainable as I dont understand the use of posting overly positive estimates. But lets just not toss around big numbers.
Looks similar to that of the lehman brothers.
Dont get me wrong, I am very very very long on this stock. But lets just keep the hope mongering out of this. Such overly positive posting reminds me of pumping. I see no use for overly negative or positive posting.
That chart proves nothing, it adds no value, it's sole purpost is to create dreams of golden mountains. Please keep posts usefull. Hope has nothing to do with investing or trading.
Can't believe that I'm letting myself get dragged into this kind of discussion.
I was referring to the $3 statement. If that was the case then I am well on my way to becomming a millionaire.
But im just a bit allergic to posts containing numbers that would imply a 20/30 bagger.
If only they didnt have any form of expenses.
at least $200 bucks a share AND waffles. Shall we try not to post hyping numbers? Lets keep it sensible and realistic.
"Maybe", "if" and "possibly" are kinds crappy numbers to calculate with.
Ok this clarifies alot - thanks for the link :)
PHOENIX, May 11, 2009 - Mesa Air Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: MESA) (the "Company") announced today a second quarter pre-tax operating profit of $27.2 million from continuing operations and a net loss after tax of $37.3 million from continuing operations on operating revenues of $233.0 million. The significant after tax net loss is the result of recording $64.5 million income tax expense primarily driven by an IRC Section 382 tax provision affecting Net Operating Loss (NOL) carryforwards. Total operating revenues for the second quarter of 2009 decreased $87.3 million, or 27.3% primarily resulting from a year-over-year decrease in capacity and lower fuel revenue. The net loss of $37.3 million, or $0.43 per share on a diluted basis, compares to net gain from continuing operations of $17.5 million, or $0.51 per diluted share for the same period of fiscal 2008. Pro forma net loss for the quarter was $0.1 million or break even on a per diluted share basis compared to a loss of $4.1 million or $0.15 per diluted share for the same period of fiscal 2008. Pro forma net loss for the quarter includes adjustments for the following items on an after tax basis: $54.0 million adjustment to income tax expense, $1.7 million loss from equity method investments, $1.6 million costs associated with the Chinese joint venture, $1.1 million in lease return costs, a $1.1 million inventory write-down, $0.3 million in go! legal expenses, a $0.2 million impairment charge, and $0.1 million for loss on disposal. These losses were partially offset by a $22.9 million gain on extinguishment of debt.
Thank you, soryy for the crossfire of questions :)
1) do you happen to know by heart when the debt was restructured/paid (or however you call it). Was that this quarter or the first quarter?
2) And second when was the workforce reduced. Was that this quarter or the first quarter?
3) Am I correct to understand that without the one off expenses that the company was profittable? As in is there a chance that they will be positive this quarter even AFTER tax?
again sorry for all the questions, im not experienced with the financial stuff (yet, working my azz off to learn, but it's hard)
Hmmm dont quite know how that works, but I assume that since they sold new shares they had massive income. That income had to be taxed. Is that correct?
And was that during the first quarter (as in was that where the earnings too a hit)?
Could you please do some digging in the earnings? Will do so as well, but what I'm looking for is why previous quarter earnings were negative.
I got the timeline all screwed up atm.
There was the lawsuit settlement which was paid for
There were the layoffs as well.
What Im looking for is when and how the money paid for the lawsuit had an effect and if the results for that quarter were allready affected by the layoffs/debtpayments etc.
I hope you can see where I am going.
Because if the lawsuit money had an effect on the loss, but the expense cuts werent effective as of then .. then we might have an interesting upcoming result.
As in:
1) the one off loss related to the 52million fine pushed the earnings down, but that wont happen this quarter (AS LONG AS THE LAWSUIT WAS PAID FIRS Q THIS YEAR - otherwise this claim is void).
2) the expense cuts have yet to show its effect on the earnings (AS LONG AS THIS CUT WAS MADE THIS QUARTER AND NOT FIRST - otherwise this claim is void).
if and only if the one off lawsuit money paid was first quarter and the expense cuts were this quarter .. then we might see a huuuuuuuuge increase in earnings.
Another chart with what might be key levels
Weekly log chart
http://rt2.c.prorealtime.com/ProRealTimeNew/tmp/img_12473217210736.gif
Red is rising support
Blue is VITAL that must break to stop the downtrend imo
Notice they white line being hit repeatedly which lead to an immediate retrace. Last green outbreak candle penetrated it and closed ON it. Next week closed below it. Also note that this weeks high was the blue line. Previous high was 0.20 and top bollinger (though I dont use that).
Anyhoo, white resistance was broken once.
Blue resistance still in place.
20 ma is turning up and that MA has been carrying the entire downtrend for OVER 2 YEARS! (feb 2007 was first test and fail, since then price did not move over it. And when it did in april this year it was in a downward direction. That seems to be changing.
Lows we might be seeing are 0.11 -> if that breaks.......
Highs for now are 0.20 (green) or 0.17/.18 from the blue line.
Im expection that we will break white some time soon again.
Notice that the wedge will end at 30th or august. We will have earnings before that. Wedges weaken in moves the closer the price breaks out near the sharpest point, so if earnings are at teh start of august or something and postitive then we might see an interesting more that might well go to 0.52 (aug 2008 price)
Some charting.. messy charts
daily chart showing importance of april point
http://rt2.c.prorealtime.com/ProRealTimeNew/tmp/img_12473178373855.gif
the cirles show importance of the blue support
the fan of lines from the high are to indicate the importance of that node
we are currently being pushed down by a resistance from that very node (march 2008 one)
the 3 red arrows are interesting as well (the are located above the may june july 2008 spikes. because when we change the chart scale to logaritmic we see:
http://rt2.c.prorealtime.com/ProRealTimeNew/tmp/img_12473182888489.gif
This is to indicate the importance of a logarithmic chart as well.
also an interesting weekly logarithmic chart
http://rt2.c.prorealtime.com/ProRealTimeNew/tmp/img_12473203508936.gif
See how we slammed into triple resistance?
but ... something interesting here is the yellow 20 MA line
I walked the price down for ages. It broke above it onece, and rode it down again. But now it seens the ma is changing direction.
If we move up I think 0.23 is short term top
Been watching intraday 5 minute and 1 minute religiously for the passed few days.
Seems most action is automated. So often when an importan MA sucht as the 50 ma on the 5 minute chart is about to hit the current price we see the same actions over and over.
Minuted before a floor is added of for instance 180k shares at bid. Then another bid is set above it. Then momennts later a ceiling is put in often on a lower amount of shares (for example 56k shares).
Then the MA hits the price and we see a technical battle.
As I see it now we are riding the price down, but the stock is at MASSIVE daily support
Problem however is that a number of techincal indicators are not showing a buy as is.
Stochastics for instance are not a buy as is
http://rt2.c.prorealtime.com/ProRealTimeNew/tmp/img_12473083269001.gif
RSI is trending down
MACD is slowing its advance.
The 10 minute chart shows mixed signals as well
http://rt2.c.prorealtime.com/ProRealTimeNew/tmp/img_12473083782645.gif
Notice how the stochastics can move from overbought to oversold without the stock budging more than a cent or so. This is related to the lookback period of 12 units.
What worries me a bit is the steady, near paralel movement of the moving averages.
We need some tailwind, some news, because if most action is automated, then that could mean more downside. But again, updays are on higher volume than downdays. We are at support, overall market is showing weakness.
When are the earnings expected ?
Another thing of interest although im quite certain that im just seeing things: as in not a real signal
Check weekly chart seems like an inverted head and shoulders
not to mention the price being at support
http://rt2.c.prorealtime.com/ProRealTimeNew/tmp/img_12473087952802.gif
Old news. Please stick to posting NEWS and not old stuff
I told you peeps to move the stock up lol.
stoplosses taken out? Should have waited on my add.
Seems a push down by moving averages.
Damn .. that woul dhave been a free 20% !
chart: notice how it sold off to support
http://rt1.c.prorealtime.com/ProRealTimeNew/tmp/img_12471654393095.gif
closeup of 15 minute
http://rt1.c.prorealtime.com/ProRealTimeNew/tmp/img_12471655785786.gif
Off to buy some food. Get busy you people because I want to see this stock at $3 I get back. You have 30 minutes now GET TO IT HUT HUT HUT!
added 30k more just a minute ago.
To remail listed on an index certain rules need to be satisfied. It varies per index which rules apply. So its not related to merely chapter11. For instance WAVE dropped down hard the other day on insane volume just because it got delisted from the russell3000 index.
No ch11 there
News was known earlier it seems. Check adobe site. Whoopsy.
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Adobe Systems Incorporated (Nasdaq:ADBE) and HTC, a global designer of mobile phones, announced that the new HTC Hero is the first Android phone to ship with support for Adobe Flash Platform technology. The new phone delivers a more complete Web browsing experience and provides access to a broad variety of Flash technology based content available on the Web today.
"As the first Android device with Flash, the new HTC Hero represents a key milestone for Android and the Flash Platform. With close to 80 percent of all videos online delivered with Adobe Flash technology, consumers want to access rich Web content on-the-go." said David Wadhwani, vice president and general manager, Platform Business Unit at Adobe. "The collaboration with HTC offers people a more complete Flash based Web browsing experience today and presents an important step towards full Web browsing with Flash Player 10 on mobile phones in the future."
The new HTC Hero is a key element of the HTC experience and a new generation of HTC mobile phones and devices. Users can browse and discover a broad set of Web content and applications not supported by mobile phones in the past. People can also view YouTube videos using Flash technology, and enable full screen viewing mode by simply double tapping the screen.
"Adobe Flash is an important core technology for people interacting and experiencing the Web, it is only natural to be offering it on the new HTC Hero first," said John Wang, chief marketing officer, HTC Corporation. "We look forward to continuing our close collaboration with Adobe and to bringing Flash Player 10 support to our phones in the future."
The HTC Hero delivers powerful, compatible video playback performance using Flash technology, and interactive content enabled by ActionScript 2.0. Users can enjoy and navigate through Web videos using intuitive video controls. With progressive streaming of large MP3 audio files from a Web server and the local file storage, the HTC Hero provides a seamless audio experience. Support for Sorenson and On2 VP6 codecs enables higher quality video and playback of existing Web content. A demo of the user experience enabled by the Flash Platform on the HTC Hero and the Android operating system can be viewed at www.adobe.com/go/htchero.
HTC Participates in Open Screen Project
HTC also announced its participation in the Open Screen Project, a broad industry effort to deliver a consistent runtime across screens and to provide access to all Flash technology based Web content in the future. As a contributor to the initiative, HTC is collaborating with Adobe and more than 25 other industry leaders to bring Flash Player 10 and full Web browsing to the next generation of Android based smartphones and other mobile computing platforms and devices. For more details on the Open Screen Project, visit www.openscreenproject.org.
ADDED CHART: getting some heat. Seeing a massive loads of small orders coming through. (accumulation) Might be bot related, I have a feeling (so no proof) that it often has to do with price moving over MAs.
http://rt2.c.prorealtime.com/ProRealTimeNew/tmp/img_12471523371781.gif
And indeed MA related. Damn how I love those thngs. The patterns in tell so much more than all them fancy indicators.
chart 2
http://rt2.c.prorealtime.com/ProRealTimeNew/tmp/img_12471515073412.gif
+ closeup see other chart for comments
http://rt2.c.prorealtime.com/ProRealTimeNew/tmp/img_12471516752286.gif
I dislike a stock trading along the indices. DOW SPY NASDAQ kinda trade the same. What this signals to me is that there are still people in selling when the market goes down.
Ideally a flatline would be nice. That means that there is no intent of selling. Best would even be that the price doesnt really move, but the ask gets nibbled steadily.
That means that its under accumulation. Happens nicely when the moving averages are rather close.
When noone wants to sell a buyer would have to increase its bid to get in. Often you see that when volume completely dries out that it get accumulated, perhaps the big ask gets nibbled. On L2 you will then see next to no shares offered at higher prices. Price can move up fast then (this is VERY visible on low float stock).
yer was thinking about the same thing.
Chart
http://rt2.c.prorealtime.com/ProRealTimeNew/tmp/img_12471501024168.gif
Regarding the trading like the dow. When there is a complete lack of volume than its the same as trading a low floater.
Small bid can easily be overwelmed by a pathetic sale.
Keep your eyes peeled for dip additions. Low volume CAN lead to high volatility. In the end we will get some eratic movement with volume that will attract the pennyflippers. Those will be the volume we need to break the 200ma. When we break that take 1/2 profit on the spike.
Will do some charting about target prices for trading. But this IS a long hold for me. Doesnt say that I cant make some money off of the road to my targets :)
hehe was spot on with the open and selloff :)
Wouldnt know. Am holding a boatload of shares. If you check hourly chart you can see that the price is just reading water and waiting for the 50 ma to meet it from below.
Overall market day might be damn green. Gapup open, selloff to gap and then rise. Just a gut feeling here.
That BS about buying back toxic assets is just a desparate measure to pump the market.
Buying program yesterday EOD.
First reported earnings of a dow component company were good, so that sets the mood. July 14th will be interesting with GS reporting stellar earnings. Should do some DD into which banks and other financials are reporting soon. The good news will prolly be oozing out about how they filled the stress test requirements (using GAAP reporting tricks, lending money, booking one off income against the earnings and whatnot)
Related to mesa, downdays have been on pathetic volume, nowhere near the upmove volume.
As expected AA gave a beat. I just wonder if any gvt deals were present in this quarter hehe.
Also reuters posted:
US TREASURY, FED, FDIC ANNOUNCE PROGRAM TO BUY UP TO $40 BLN OF TOXIC SECURITIES - Reuters
No friggen way that they are letting this market drop that easily. Noticed the buy program towards then end? Should be a nice dollar volume per minute on that program.
Also keep in mind that there will be alot more earnings including financials. Those will all be very bullish. First off because of the new accounting rules which they can beautifully abuse to report all kinds of phantom earnings (mark to market leads to a lower report on debt. That lower number will then be booked as earnings.. no zhit).
They will also scream miracles about covering the stress test requirements.
I dunno, not gonna jump to conclusions about market direction just yet.
Note that the accum/dist drop is related to the russell3000 delisting of 26th of june
errr? This is good for us? As long as they are messing up the closes they are messing up the indicators. This allows for more scalps - since there will be volatility.
Those scalps will add to free share holds.
As long as this doesnt attact too much attention we can just nibble a few percent per day to bring the average price down. I REALLY dont mind scalping a bit of $ a day off of this kind of stupid painting.
All it tells us is that the movement we are seeing is not with real vigour.
we had a 50% retrace from the top and the OBV didnt budge
OBV is calculated as following
if a day was an up day we ADD the total volume to the sum
if a day was a down day we DEDUCT the total volume from the sum
So what we see is a biiiiiig volume add on july 1 and the 50% price retrace led to a whopping 3 million deduction. Whoopy.
As long as OBV is sexy there is nothging to worry about.
the more weak hands fall out of the stock (what happened on the 50% retrace) the stronger the urge to hold becomes. Meaning that in the near future the only way volume will affect the OBV will be by addition, since sellers are running out.
Again a paint job on the close
696k shares went through over a 2 cent range.
OBV flatline for the passed few days aka we have nothing to worry
http://rt2.c.prorealtime.com/ProRealTimeNew/tmp/img_12470834733834.gif
Just take it easy with wave. It is under accumulation. Better to just silently load dips. Keep an eye on the OBV. As long as that doesnt sell off all it well.
awww how cute a 200k sell right at support. Surely someone wouldnt be trying to drop the price now would he
(again .. if someone would be serious about selling, then he would make it a hidden bid).
Market rocketing up on an automated buy program and mr silly pants tries to shake people out.
Too bad so many people DO fall for it hehe.
added: what a surprise .. a 90k bid a few tocks lower.
Will depend on market EOD, but seems we are veeeeery close to getting some support.
And as posted at day open: we would see volatility to scare people out of their shares.
end of day will be interesting, if we tank i will add.
But there is next to no initiative left to sell. Outstanding available float isnt all that big, The more shares end up in long termers the better.
Important tool I use to decide whether or not to increase my positions
http://www.virtual-bubblewrap.com/bubble-wrap.swf
Then I use the following for confirmation
http://www.neen.org/demo/rozendaal.swf
yes im bored (meaning its a good steady day for mesa)
17 and 19 show alot of volume at those levels.
19/20 also are pivotal points from the past.
22 cents will be tough
20 is the current 200 ma, im guessing we will meet it around 18
for the daydreamers I have the following chart:
http://rt2.c.prorealtime.com/ProRealTimeNew/tmp/img_12470781350735.gif
The horizontal line is the september selloff. Dont be fooled though. Mesa has been selling off since mid 2005. So lets just hope for $1s
Hmmm the joy of having 150k shares.
10 minute chart shows the MAs damn close. Price is at support and a 1 cent move can eat the moving averages.
Just need stochastics in oversold mode or something.
http://rt2.c.prorealtime.com/ProRealTimeNew/tmp/img_12470752285551.gif