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ugh~ /ng & z7 vs Cash$ momentum reset. edit...
Cash$ +.17 @2.94
/ngx7 momentum reset "Penny over Cash" =
@2.95 today
contango is all over the board but last calced
3.136 /ngZ7 2.973 - /ngX7 = 0.163 + 2.95 =
DEC Z @3.113 momentum reset
exactly where my short started
This is where I'm supposed to trade out of my short and go long
I'm wrestling with this...
Not sure if it's stubbornness for the south trade
or all the contango and the possibility of capturing it down to Cash$ tomorrow if Cash$ is falling today
edit... of note: /ngV7 October expired @2.97
I've never seen HH up .17 before... smh
Daily volume for the front month Nov X is still leading over Dec Z daily volume.
By stockcharts.com's own rules, the chart-monkey will have to wait until tomorrow to hang the dec candle on the daily chart
... unless that volume changes today.
Obviously I want to see Dec open at 3.01-.05 tomorrow... good luck with that right?!
... fits a whole lot better on the daily chart
I imagine that would make the volume ratio change
then run it up
I sure hope Cash$ is working with me on this one
I'm playing this trade out
edit meant 3.20
Dec 3.22 = dgaz 23.85...
?
If given the chance today I'll add there 23.85 or lower 23.70?
otherwise I'm not messing with my trade south
will it gap down tomorrow like the gap up today
or start sliding today
sitting on my hands
Winter Watch:
https:// www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017102200&fh=30
Keep the date current in this url
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017102200&fh=30
cool tool with regions ensembles etc
=======================================================================
old school Forecast now for verifying tropicaltidbits
Side by Side: [Choose Chart Type] [Choose Chart Type]
................[Nth Hemisphere H500] & [Stratoshperic Temperature 30hpa]
Click: [Animation]
Click: [View Previous Run] ...if data is updating:
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=
========================================================================
Temp map forecast: https://digital.weather.gov
You can change it to "minimum temp" and more
Snowcast: see bottom of page.
Pass your mouse across the days.
http://www.weatherstreet.com/Snowstorm.htm
180hr Forecast Global Jet Stream Wind and 250 mb Pressure. Animated loop
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=glob_250
Noaa: West Pacific Satellite & Typhoon watch probabilities
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/Basin_WestPac.html
Current snow cover links
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_usa.gif
and http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/nhem/wv-animated.gif
chuckle spelling:-/ whether the weather! will effect the trade...
I guess I made a play on words
coffee
* #msg-125976320 <---some of that is in our conversation sticky/d to the dgaz board
* Playing the: Tween the two shall meet... odds
Demand/Cash$ should come up "weather" this week
... so I don't expect Cash$ to stay low this time around.
... since the cold doesn't drop in till the 24th, Cash$ could slip a bit more?
* x7 Friday high was 2.94= +.17 over Friday's reported Cash$ -.04 @2.77
Monday's upside risk being short = (+.03) over Friday's high =2.97 (+.20 over Cash$)
How much will weather drive Cash$ this week?
How long before x7 is pinned to Cash$ into expiration and where will it be?
If I get my wish, in the short term, 1-2 days;
* "Contango" between the front month "x7" meets "Cash$" somewhere below Friday's close.
* I want to see Dec printing candles in the 3-3.05 area before the chart-monkey strikes the daily $natgas chart.
Contango between x7 & z7 is another story for aL8r conversation.
I'm not so sure it can be captured "south" this time.
More related links;
* Cash$ chart: https://www.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas-contracts?page=chart&symbol=NGY00
~ an area where it could hang out for a2/few days?
* Whether: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017102100&fh=30
cold appears to be hanging on @ the end of this run
* 3 charts; $natgas x7 z7 #msg-135361055
* Larger sma's...200,300,400, check your 500sma #msg-135227930
Weekly chart: I think that covers it *
Dec 3.11 =.34 over Cash$ -.04 @2.77...
https://www.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas-contracts?page=chart&symbol=NGY00
In 1/2 position D@25.67 Dec@3.11= .30 over Cash$...
maybe this one needs .40 over cash to short
and why the 1/2 position
going for
~tween the two shall meet
would also be nice to add the contango drop with this trade
out @10.15. Not playing inventory report roulette suicide
Hey stockchart's follow your rules or change your policy statement.
You are looking bought and paid for!
holding long, ready to short at any given singe of weakness...
feeling like a fool for not shorting yesterday's strength
stockcharts's, chart monkey shenanigans
... I guess we'll see how this goes
Come Thanksgiving: hmmm in edit as I composed...
In edit: I wrote this post and started to add the rolling natural gas stockcharts.com chart and I see their chart~monkey has once again broke the current/forward month VOLUME rules of adding the next month candle.
Stockharts "chart~monkey" claims to not hang the candle until the next month's volume outruns the current month contract/s.
======================
original post before I knew the Chart~Monkey had struck...
Come Thanksgiving: We will look back at this daily /ng chart and say;
hmmm that's one way to break a chart out.
or
and that's how they deal with contango or ugaz decay... add infinitum
I saw gobs of contango .207 at one point,
as I was randomly checking it today
~wow~
all throughout this, I've been trying to fit a Dec candle on the daily chart w/Bbands
I feel like I'm missing the biggest short and sell the news to capture contango... in /ng history
but I see they've already "broke the volume rule" and added the Dec candle... SMH
I'm all shook up~ ...
We're asking/expecting a lot. Try hanging a 3.08 candle on a daily natgas chart
let alone a 3.17 candle
wash rinse repeat is u^p there I agree
but it's hard to believe It'll go that high again and then back down before the charts change.
Running out of time. I wanted it this low level yesterday morning.
I can agree with down and would understand why
where do I draw the line if Cash$ spooks me this evening
... like it has 2 times in a row
another feels like my position is living at risk of the overnight trade... scary
Was nice to see the futures 5min closing candle above the
z7 4hr 3.068 inverted shoulder line #msg-135450097
Not sure how this is going to wash with contango but
east side cold is creeping back into the ("end of this run") picture?
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017101800&fh=30
thanks~ Long way down if this shoulder doesn't hold...
would sure like to see the black box roll start back /up
lots of selling past 2 days. Go wash-rinse-repeat!
10.13 avg ...
@10.19 initial entry @Dec z7 +/-3.078
@10.07 added. Stop hunting bid "10.08 was the low before my order"
while waiting for Dec 3.063 alert to ring.
10.13 avg
Dec z7 price improvement since premarket. x7 has lost a penny since my entry
ugaz now printing 10.19 @Cash$ 2.89
That's no way to run contango out
I saw 18.7 contango few mins ago
launch this thing
1/2position @U10.19 "penny over Cash$2.90" still waiting for...
Dec z7 3.068 and 3.063 drawing alerts to sound
I will if given the chance
another interesting perspective is. edit...
part of this exuberance is; *
* Weather mentioned here 4 days ago #msg-135367615
watching cold drop into the east on the 24th till end of this run
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017101700&fh=30
It looks like the cold is blowing out at the end of the run now. "+4 days to the last run"
* And the roll out of x7 and into z7...
You can see it by comparing x7 and z7 Daily OpenInerest
Also by comparing x7 to z7 5min obv
* and speculation of a bullish report
Hang a 3.17+ candle on any natgas daily chart... coming soon
Are they really going to do this?
Run it up so I can short it before the charts change scenario:
I would love to see Dec z7 @3.22 congestion
"sell the news? inventory report/weather speculation"
Short it and hopefully ride contango down and out
a week and 3 days until x7 expiration...
The previous post/chart technical analysis is valid only IF the contago isn't ripped out of it in the coming days.
The questions become;
from where/level?
and
when/before or after expiration?
* I would like to see .20 over cash /ngX7 @3.07 "for today only" or soon.
Ever changing trade ideas stuck on the Cash$ yo yo
* z7 over Cash$ is huge again
would love to be short but can't seem to pull the trigger "right here"
I would like to know what screen you use to see this
/NGx7 ^ November contract ^ Cash$ +.10 @3.01 I don't like shorting when it's printing under Cash$
UGAZ/DGAZ ~locked~ trading in the Dec contract: almost .20 over Cash$ @3.01 +.20 @3.21
Lots of contango in this back down to the front month
But closing over the blue line is concerning. And it recently opened over the 3.10 gap
Cash$ +.10 @3.01... I'm out. I should have sold it all @25 instead of some like earlier in the day.
but who knew what cash was doing
I get your 2.98 now. It would be closing under yesterdays close.
Right now it looks like it filled today's gap and bounced.
Having a hard time deciding if I should close this trade
... rather than leave my short at risk of the Sunday trade.
It would be nice to see Cash$ down considerably tonight.
Thoughts
Thanks
Was that a typo? I don't want to hold this to 3.07<--- typo?
Hallelujah. Can't find 2.98 I see 2.976 is that the one?
Thank you sir. Looks like that gap we came up through is catching some support
would sure like to see it fail with accelerated selling
you running a stop? Dec 5min OBV dumping...
I like it but this is natgas
tapped the ask@24.15 filled @24.14 slight satellite internet delay
Thanks boss. Was waiting until equity open to see if they try to suck afew more longs in and freak the shorts out
just a hunch
just a tiny bit higher please
Here come the open. Will they drive it back up...
I really need to make some cash today
Thanks
looking @3.044-.045 scalp a profit taking friday south