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Sounds like wishful thinking. Can you cite a stock where this has happened?
RNDC big pop. Unfortunately I'm not in right now.
I was part of the Oregon State Fishery Research Team that used the FLIR system over on the John Day River. The John Day is a desert stream that holds salmon, steelhead and trout. The FLIR unit was mounted on a helicopter and flew over the river. We were trying to detect thermal refugia that the salmon and trout were using so they could survive the warm summer months. The FLIR system gave us a thermal map of the river. Once we identified the cold areas, we could study the fish and how they behaved around them. Pretty neat civilian use of a tool that was designed for the military.
FLIR news?
You make a good point. All of my small caps have been getting clobbered lately. Combine that with the losses in gold, oil and steel this week and it wasn't pretty.
Dan,
If XAU holds 93 do you like WTZ at these prices?
XAU back down to 93.
Jim, are you still watching RNDC? Today is sort of interesting. It's working on 2.45, if it breaks 2.50 I think it could go for a while.
XAU nice bounce off 93 earlier. Hope that holds.
Bought the boat used, it was already installed on an arch. It's pretty cool, you can raise and lower the panels depending on the angle of the sun.
Speaking of which....I was talking to a guy about putting some panels on my boat to keep the batteries charged. There is a solar panel shortage right now though....
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I've got solar panels on my boat. They keep the batteries topped off when I am away for extended periods of time. When I'm using the boat, they "pay" for the refrigeration during the daytime. It would be really cool if ALTI made a deep cell battery that could be charged in a short time off the alternator, thus eliminating the need for solar panels and gen-sets.
where did you read about China announced a steel glut ?
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Nancy, I couldn't find the original article but this one is similar.
nwsailor
UPDATE 1-Fears about China draw shorts to steel stocks
(Updates with steel index activity in paragraph 9)
By Reshma Kapadia
NEW YORK, March 16 (Reuters) - China's plans for increased steel capacity are starting to attract interest from short sellers betting that U.S. steel stocks and prices have had their last hurrah.
Investors snap to attention at the mention of China, which consumes a quarter of the world's steel. The nation's demand for raw materials fueled the recent surge in commodity prices, but some investors are now concerned its plans to ramp up steel-making capacity could have the opposite effect.
'I think we have seen the peak' in steel prices, said Longbow Research analyst Chris Olin. 'We continue to think there is downside to prices based on the Chinese factor. We have seen a small amount of capacity come on line, and it looks like most of it is planned for second-half of 2005 and 2006.'
As concerns grow that China could become a steel exporter rather than an importer -- and emerge as a low-cost rival to U.S. companies -- some investors are beginning to seek cover.
A handful of U.S. steel stocks has recently attracted the interest of short sellers, or investors who bet against the market and who profit when a stock falls.
The largest dollar-value short last month was for United States Steel Corp. at about $903 million, followed by $767 million for Nucor Corp. , according to a research note from Prudential analyst John Tumazos.
'What strikes me about Nucor is that the short interest is higher than it was most of 2004, and it's at one of its three highest levels in last 12 months,' said Bill Rhodes, founder of Rhodes Analytics. 'For U.S. Steel, it went from 10 million shares of short interest in August to about 14 million now.'
In the 30 days ended on Feb. 15, shorting occurred in 11.6 million, or 11.7 percent, of the publicly traded shares of AK Steel Holding Corp. and about 5.7 million, or 15 percent, of publicly traded Steel Dynamics Inc. shares. On average, most companies have about 3 percent of their public float shorted.
The Dow Jones U.S. steel index <.DJUSST> was down 3 percent at $172.60 in afternoon trading. The index has been falling since peaking at $192.20 on March 4.
PEAK OF THE CYCLE?
'The market still has very strong expectations for the industry today,' Longbow's Olin said, 'and given the trend in steel prices, we think definitely there is a risk to stock prices ... on the assumption the cycle might be turning over.'
Near-term concerns for the U.S. steel industry include production cuts from the automakers and higher inventory in supply chains, but increased capacity and China weigh on investors in the long-term, analysts said.
'Whether capacity is built in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, or in China, it is still capacity expansion in very cyclical industries, and it still comes on line at the peak of the cycle,' Merrill Lynch investment strategist Rich Bernstein wrote in a research note. 'Lower commodity prices undoubtedly lie ahead.'
He warned investors not to buy the hype about China changing the way cyclicals work.
While demand from China may have extended the cycle, these stocks will still act in the same manner and it looks like steel stocks are 'pretty much close to the peak,' added Prudential Chief Investment Strategist Ed Keon, who is neutral on the materials sector.
Permanent Portfolio fund manager Michael Cuggino said steel may be more vulnerable to talk of increased capacity in China than are other commodity stocks, such as copper and oil, because it takes longer to find and extract oil and minerals than it does to build a steel plant.
Cuggino, who thinks commodity stocks offer a good longer-term play, holds shares of Chevron Texaco and Phelps Dodge Corp. in his fund.
'I think (steel) was a good idea for a long time,' Keon said, 'but I hope people aren't staying too long at the party.'
((Editing by Lisa Von Ahn, Reuters messaging: reshma.kapadia.reuters.com@reuters.net; 646-223-6191))
Are you a Numismatist?
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I just look at the cartoons.
is Fed going to raise .50 basis point?
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I'm playing a .25c raise, no change in guidance, dollar sags, and a "measured' rally in SOX.
BU$$ anybody looking to buy this dip?
In edit: in at 15.65
I noticed you are following RIO. What are your current thoughts on this one?
Fred
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RIO is a LTBH for me at this point. The price increases they are getting are astounding. They are the worlds largest producer of iron ore and the buildup in China steel companies are adding a lot of pressure to the market. China will probably increase the mining of it's own ore, but it is an inferior product. Substitute products like aluminum might become more attractive but the energy costs are high there as well.
32 appears to be the low end of the box for now.
I've been playing commodities outside the country. Oil in Canada, iron ore in Brazil and (oops,) gold in SA.
nwsailor
If that was anything more than a rumor, the dollar would be tanking and gold soaring.
RHAT broke 10.50 bailed for small loss
RHAT looks attractive here at 10.50. I'm in.
Paul, I'm beginning to think I play the bios all together wrong. I have about 5 of them long and usually trade in and out until I feel like I have a comfortable cushion to hold for the long term.
I think a better play might be to short a basket of them with loose stop loss orders to protect against a DNA type of event. It seems these stocks take a beating more often than not. The chances of getting a product to market is pretty slim.
I've always held out for the homerun. Maybe I need to change my perspective and go for a strike out. (Wish I'd been short LJPC today).
nwsailor
Genentech Avastin aids lung cancer survival
Mon Mar 14, 2005 03:17 PM ET
WASHINGTON, March 14 (Reuters) - Genentech's cancer drug Avastin helps lung cancer patients live longer when combined with standard chemotherapy, the U.S. National Cancer Institute said on Monday.
Patients given Avastin, known generically as bevacizumab, in combination with the standard chemotherapy drugs paclitaxel and carboplatin had a median overall survival of 12.5 months compared to patients treated with the standard chemotherapy alone, who had a median survival of 10.2 months, the Institute said.
"This difference is statistically significant," added the NCI, which sponsored the study.
LJPC selling off hard here. Doubled up. Survivability issue. Do your own DD.
Well, here we are at 2040 and 1505. What next?
NEM Some miners getting wacked. Gold up $3.40 to $445.50 and Nemont down .04c.
but a person can make a decent living these days buying it under 4.1 and selling at 4.3x, ya know? <g>
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Yea, I've seen that too. I traded ALTI when the battery news first came out. I'm holding for long term now. I think they have a lot of potential in other areas as well. Not adding any more @ $4 because I'm pretty well loaded, hopeing for a break of $4.40 on the next news.
ALTI will $4.40 hold it back again, hope not.
AMGN I have an order @ 58.80
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Thanks, That might be the sweet spot. I had the low end of the box at 57. I doubt we hit that if 2040 holds. We've bounced here at 60.30-60.50 a couple of times, let's see if it holds.
AMGN looks pretty attractive here
RIO last week they announced price increases of 72% on iron ore. This week China announces a steel glut on the market. I thought gold was a manipulated market!
ECA bought back 1/2 position for a $3 discount, waiting on SU.
Party time in RIO
Thanks. I'll probably regret it, but I just sold 1/2 ECA (71)and SU (39.90). They just "feel" toppy right now. Holding the rest, but expecting a breather for now. This market wants to go up and can't do so until the oils give some back.
Oil stocks just keep flying. Everytime I look up they are making new highs. Here's one bubble that needs a good prick. I don't want to be left holding the bag. I'm going to sell 1/2 of my positions soon and set tight stops on the rest. Reminds me of the internet stocks a few years ago.
Where do you get your bio-diesel?
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This site (from Stow) has a listing of distributors.
http://www.biodiesel.org/
these guys are nuts. paying per mile? what a nightmare.
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What idiots! What this does is penalize folks who drive efficient cars. I think the gas tax in Oregon is per gallon. If they need more road money they should make it a percent of the price of gas. Gas companies don't like that so it won't get done.
Note my bias; I drive a Jetta TDI and use biodiesel. Gets up to 50 mpg.
SOX and BTK both negative here
SONS Remember this?
On Jan. 12, Goldman Sachs upgraded the telecommunications equipment industry to "attractive" from "neutral" and said it expected 15% to 30% upside for Sonus, Motorola (nyse: MOT - news - people ) and Netgear (nasdaq: NTGR - news - people ). "Underpinning our upgrade of the group is our view that valuations are broadly attractive with many CommTech players trading at, or even below, market multiples but offering better than market growth and returns," Goldman Sachs said. "Additionally, the strength in the industry's key cyclical and secular trends in our view allows us to comfortably look out to 2006 for several players." Since the sector upgrade, shares of Motorola and Netgear have fallen 17.5% and 8.4%, respectively, while Sonus is down 8.3% as of today's closing price.
Down another 18% aftermarket.....great call
ALTI Very hard for me to figure. Busted the $4.05 and then the sellers dried up, buyers appearing at $3.85-3.90. The attack on $4.05 successful but no follow thru. Hmmmmm.
GERN When do you plan on covering your shorts?
Thank you very much. What service do you use to get that level of detail? I get "level II" with my brokerage but it doesn't provide anything like that.