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re-open wound, add salt lol
lesson to flippers in this environment:
NCX nova chemical....was bought out for $6/share as Jax linked. A day before news hit, it was around $1.27. I know this because i had bought it on a sell off for $1.10 or so and sold it a week later for $2.05. Then i waited for the flip. Sure enough, it was coming back down, just as i planned, and I said to myself "self, wait for another dime",,,this was when it was trading in the upper 1.20's. Then all i can remember is one morning i said WTF about 10 times because the train had left the station and it was tappin $5.50 (in one day).
i don't intend on making that mistake here. (but you fellas can flip if you like, aint nothin holding you back)
what Jax said plus numerous others such as:
www.scmp.com
www.chinaknowledge.com
www.sec.gov (important one)
www.kccllc.com
www.chemtura.com
google is your friend....
and a host of others, but this is a start
mac,
don't know and don't care, as i'm only interested in the end game.
maybe some of there chart guys can tell you the day and time it moves??
jax,
you're right, but if there was as much effort put into DD as there has been in trying to draw lines on a chart, then i suspect we'd have alot more answers than questions on this message board.
i personally want to see some 'technical' analysis on the chart when the line goes straight up. do you think ol' claytrader will be able to tell us after the fact why or before the fact when it will happen?
we're not in a normal business cycle, obviously with the BK, therefore the charts aren't worth much more than visual entertainment. (but they sure can make'm purdy with all those fancy colors and such)
and go ahead and call up Lazard and tell them their redacting job could use a little polishing........
couple more court filings nunc pro tunc to may 11, 12th, ,,,possible services include asset sales,,,,same as filed day before yesterday i think about april 28 nunc pro tunc.
funny how they must have hired a dozen plus for the same services all over europe and everywhere else for possible asset sales, but they aren't selling anything (i smell bluff).
if i wasn't so lazy i'd count them up, but i figured that someone else besides me or mad would take the time to double check our DD, so could someone else volunteer to do some work to quell the 'sky is falling' folks?
all this jibber jabber and no one has noticed the filing that was nunc pro tunc to april 28, which is the exact same (on or abouts) as the other firms hired to advise in asset sales, amongst other things. cross check with the lazard billings if you like or would that be to much to do for some of you guys yappin about the sky falling and such?
seems to me that when a company hires more than a half a dozen law firms around the globe within a period of one week for the same services, which include asset dispositions, then someone ought to tell rogerson they're still trying to sell off parts of the company.
or maybe he could just tell us why they are trying to hide it.
blowing smoke or where there's smoke, there is fire. which one do you sky falling type guys think it is?
You've got some serious issues if you think the vermin are scurrying after posting mis-information of the magnitude that you did.
You must be a misguided soul, probably by your 'broker'.
If you wanted an EC, then that's all you had to say.
First off, bondholders and the unsecured creditors committee are not one and the same.
Second, you have no earthly idea who owns the bonds and you don't have any idea who owns 4.74% of the stock,,as this is the limitation by the court.
Third, while there is no limit to the amount of bonds one can buy, it is an asinine comment to think that bondholders haven't bought common stock,,as they may have bought their limit.
Fourth, the 2026 bonds are unsecured and carry just as much weight as equity, but yet they have been going up significantly,,,,blowing a big fat hole in your theory.
Fifth, the 5 year business plan aint got nothing about commons in it, and it is this kind of propaganda that someone needs to throw the BS flag up about it, so i guess that'd be me.
Sixth, if your broker was a knife, he would be a well used butter knife.
In closing, there is NOT ONE SHRED of paper out there that says commons will be cancelled. The first time you'll know anything is when the POR is filed, and it most likely wont be filed by the next deadline, as it will be extended once again.
I don't recall any of floyd's posts attacking anyone, maybe they were deleted before i got to take a look at them. I guess that if someone didn't like what floyd had to say, they could use the ignore button.
But i will say this, what 'bymor' said reminds me of a scene from 'Back to the Future' when Biff was rackin on that head saying "McFly, McFly".
I mean jeez people, a broker? Do you honestly think a broker will advise to buy a BK stock? Well of course not because they have a fiduciary duty to 'not' promote BK stocks and their arse can be put in a sling for doing it by some dirtbag lawyer..........which is the same reason any asset sale is downplayed by Rogerson.......
Why is this so hard to understand?
Until it is signed on the dotted line, any speak of sales or common's viability, is a legal liability. People don't want to be sued.
lol a broker.......that just cracks me up.....
and here i was thinking Elvis was the customer.......
typical surf post. why don't you chart that $99.75 bond?
That's laughable. You'll know when i attack somebody. lol If shootin it straight is misconstrued as a personal attack, then maybe i need to take it elsewhere.
If someone doesn't agree with what i have to say, i expect a reply, debate, attack, or something other than some cop out disappearing post. This is america buddy, and while i may not like what someone says to me or about me, i do take it into consideration.
Rodney, I'm sending you mail.
Looks like im headed to jail again,,,,to many disappearing posts. LOL
x2 on everything xenn said. To hell with re-financing. Although it would be great if they could roll over everything and common stayed intact, you would still be burdened with most likely higher interest rates than the ones that chemtura has currently. Higher rates will have the same effect as taking on more debt, and THAT is why it is imperative that chemtura dump at least some assets to knock down that leverage.
Listen folks, i'm all about keeping businesses that make money, but sometimes you have to punt and re-group, and if it means leaving something on the table, well that's just the price you pay for relying on the notion that you can always roll over debt.
Going from 7% to 10.5% is the same as taking on 50% more debt. It's time to punt and re-group, which is insurance to commons to stay 100%.
jax, to answer your pm, i can't recall that he did. BTW, after the recent filings scenario 3 could be looking real good.
And by the way, mad is right about the lurkers. There are court documents in the pilgrims case that have screen shots of the yahoo message board in them. And several of the posts have an old screen name of mine. Careful with the inside information hearesay.
You learned well, grasshopper. Sometimes you've got to let the brass drag the ground, even if you get some road rash.
That said, was is your deal mattchew?
Enough of the jibber jabba.
FYI, the stock will be driven by knowledge and calculated risk,,,,not by greed or fear.
And you chart guys, c'mon now. Jeez. Drawing those lines will only get you so far. Read the court docs for a change, will ya?
Right on brother
Edit: brotha
I'm gonna have to throw up the BS flag on this.
"i heard from a friend who heard from a friend who overheard somebody say at 31 flavors last week"
The dip loan was extended through the 1st quarter of next year per court filing.
======> Public knowledge from Rogerson they want to emerge 1st quarter. Makes sense.
Chemtura spends mucho bucks hiring Lazard and others to sell assets. Multiple court filings to this effect, INCLUDING re-filing documents that were washed over with "project hoover" where asset sales were previously mentioned.
======> Rogerson says 'asset sales are preferred in february', then spends mucho bucks since May (after BK), but now says 'asset sales not a priority'. Yeah right.
The first thing i do when i want to sell something is tell a potential buyer that 'I don't have to sell it, but i will'.
Translation: It's for sale but don't lowball me. Gimme fair value.
If I was Rogerson i'd be telling whoever that I didn't have to sell anything, as it makes the company seem to be in a stronger position.
But the fact remains that if the credit markets are still tight, then they have no other choice but to sell off assets or give it away to debt holders.
I'd rather sell it off.
PVC and Crop are gone. Either that or someone ought to tell Rogerson to quit pissin money away on it.
As far as expansions, they wont be doing any without any credit or cash, so i think it's safe to say that won't be happening until they sell something or the credit markets start feelings very generous.
they are as good as sold. gone. history. exchanged for cash in hand and a springboard out of BK.
honestly, if you can't see the trail of evidence in the filings as to a intended future sale, then you best have your heart medicine ready when it happens.
i mean, what the hell? you tell me why a law firm was hired in the netherlands for a potential crop protection asset sale 4 months AFTER Rogerson said it was for sale. Would you think they would have hired those folks to do the paperwork 'before' a sale or 'after' they had a buyer.
what do you think?
I made a comment about getting out the popcorn for this afternoon, but the intention was not to see a 5.5 million share dump in the last hour of trading.
Folks, use this as a lesson. A lesson that has nothing to do with selling, but a lesson to show what can happen to the price of the stock when we get some asset sale news.
When 20 million shares are bought in a hour, this thing will go straight up,,,much much farther than it went down today on the dump.
I can't say that i enjoy watching my account swing multiple 100's of thousands to the downside, but hey it's not like i haven't seen it go positive either.
PVC and most likely Crop Protection are gone. Mark it. The day will come when my account will see a smooth million dollar swing to the upside, so this little disappointment really has nothing to do with the end game.
take the damn stops out people
no, it means they are trading at $6+, and upon emergence you still have the same amount of shares, most likely still trading $6+, which in reality is 36% of the true undiluted value. Think of it like it should trade at $18, but dilution makes your shares worth $6.
All in all it shows that JBS thinks the company is worth a heck of a lot more than what it is on the books for,,,,,does that sound familiar here?????
now you ought to know better than ask that question. lol
I anyone could answer that and predict the future dynamics and related psychological reactions of human beings' buying and selling habits of a given stock, then they could make Buffet look like a popcorn fart.
Speaking of Buffet, don't buy in to the public strategy he tells. The underlying fact is the man is or was a calculated gambler. There is simply no way in hell someone can flop down $10,000 in coca-cola, sit on it, and become a billionaire. Not happening. The man is untruthful.
Pilgrim's is approaching $7 today after they filed their POR indicating severe dilution and intended relisting.
Just think of what an asset sale will do here.
Most likely a bunch of useless posts this afternoon....
like:
to the moon
omg
can't believe it
and lets not forget, 'its going back to 12 cents'
I like those kind of days myself.
not all of them.
So much for the morning walkdown. This may be a day to get your popcorn out.
Couldn't agree more. The long term cap gains tax is 'supposed' to revert back to the old rate. But on the other hand, this administration was 'supposed' to do just about everything opposite to what it has done so far.
Don't be suprised either when the rate goes from 15% to 50%.
that one vote must be arnold still looking for 12 cents, remember that?
Glad you brought that up because I think Chemtura is in alot better position. Pilgrims is basically selling out....albiet only 64%, but JBS gains total control of the company. Shareholders keep 36%. Not a great deal, but whatever since i dont own any anymore.
Chemtura has more options than Pilgrims. Pilgrims has one product stream. Chemtura has several. Therefore, Chemtura can sell off a portion and the shareholders can remain intact @ 100%. (hopefully) Pilgrims couldn't sell off a portion to amount to anything without competing with their former selves.
Also chemtura wouldn't be competing against whatever they just sold....like pilgrims would have to.
I'd much rather sell off 25% of the company and keep 100% of the stock, than do a deal like pilgrims did.
When the news comes that crop protection and plastic additives are a done deal, it should be the same time a POR will be floated.
Let the games begin. Final 15.........
nope, here is something to chew on. carrots:
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1091862/000114420409048488/v160486_8k.htm
The calm before the storm. Your question will be answered soon enough.
i digress. i think i managed a couple shovel fulls, we'll see.
I couldn't agree more with that first sentence.
now that's a million dollar question.
I've got 3 logical guesses.
1. value play, i.e. assets are way undervalued on the books.
2. solid inside information
3. back door leveraged buyout
i'd say it's a combination of 1 & 2 (mostly 2), and maybe a less than 10% chance on 3.
we'll see soon enough
phran,
i don't think it will double, i know it will double. And most likely double and move up. The main thing right now is to reduce the debt. The stock will love that. As far as who has the cash and the brass to scoop up the crop division, if i was these guys (link), i'd be making a move and get it while i could.
http://www.syngenta.com/en/index.html
bb50,
i've been following the crumbs, so far they haven't let me down.
when they hired that french law firm for 'potential divestures', the only thing they have in france is plastic (pvc) additives. then lazard's billing came out and mentioned pvc divesture, and site visits to the 'taft' facility, which is the plastic additive plant in hahnville, la. then came the news about pvc books going out. (it now says hoover visit or something, they changed it)
now, the crumbs are telling me that the dutch firm just hired (which is nunc pro tunc to may 11 or 13th) must have something to do with 'crop protection'. the only thing chemtura has in the netherlands is crop protection. they have to hire these firms that practice in local law jurisdictions. they can't just hire a 'do it all' firm, as certain law firms can only practice in certain countries and so forth.
if they weren't still trying to sell the crop protection division, then they wouldn't have hired the dutch firm,,,it's that simple.
nunc pro tunc is a fancy legal term that basically means "now for then" (latin). it means retroactive to that date.
all that means is that this firm, along with the irish one, and some others, are doing divesture work, among other things, starting around end of april, first of may. Now you can look at Lazard's billings and figure out that asset sale processes were picking up steam around this time. These law firms have been working behind the scenes, but they all have to come out of the woodwork prior to any announcements.
Is the crop protection division still in play??? You bet your ass it is. Can you say bamm, one day double if it hits?
Rogerson aint foolin me, i see what he's up to,,,,same thing he said in Feb.
but i bet he tells a good fishin story.......
if mr fisherman was paying attention, rogerson addressed exactly what fish is talking about. that last interview, in my opinion, was more of a psychological play at potential asset suitors, than words of wisdom to stakeholders.
when he was asked about asset sales, rogerson immediately shrugged off any so-called desperation, and said basically 'we got plenty of options besides selling assets'.
whether true or not, buyers took notice. it may be a bluff by rogerson, or may be a chit or get off the pot statement.
one thing is for sure, if anything sells, anyone else interested in other parts will come running, as the window of opportunity will be closing fast.