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dont tell him about surface tension
the best story about commercialization is one I heard of at a drug company. two companies have sister drugs. whoever gets them through trials faster will win market share, maybe 500 million a year. the drugs are about to start in phase three trials. so one company carefully looks at all the centers who have most of the patients needed for the trials and offers reimbursment for recruitment ( a usual). they nail every possible center that has 95% of the patients easily available and get an investiagtion started before the other company, so all these patients are on their drug. when company two tries to do trials bingo: no more patients easily found and trials will take an extra year.
so forget the time in chemical synthesis, in metabolic research, in assaying and hits, in tox work, in patents etc etc. It all comes down to how to steal patients so the other guy gets his trials delayed.
see why I like nose strips?
my gut says
i think a lot of mutual fund redemptions happened this afternoon and more will come in tomorrow morning. does federal reserves have any news for money injection.?
I am not sure the market is ruled by individuals making reasonable choices about valuations, but rather the herd mentality of the mutual fund redemtion: lets play whack a mole
my tracing stock is wg "analysts highest rated" p/e less than ten
always makes a profit etc etc. just the place a mutual fund would stick money yet it came down today.
anyone have any real facts about redemptions?
In fact I have spent about 25 years in a research lab, so I know that 1) a lot of stuff I struggle with has already been published and I did not know it. Even fractals and mandelbrot sets (talk about the stock market) were known about in one form or another almost 100 years ago, but no one connected the dots 2) when my controls fail, i really discovered something, so it is just a matter of doing experiments of any sort 3) doing cross border experiments, like having materials physicists doing biology and vice versa is a waste of time unless the biologist and the physicist is in the room 4)I have spent some time with tech transfer guys at national labs and there is a whole lot of unused stuff. 5) Science is slow, except when it is fast. Usually all the data for a publication is obtained in a few weeeks, although it took me a long time to convince myself I should get the experiments done. the faster it is, the more "AHA" is going on.
to me the problem is with commercialization and the difficulty in organizing, posing the commercial problem, convincing, raising money and yes building a production facility. and getting the artwork done for four color glossies might take more time than machining parts
there is a lot of neat ideas out there but to me nasal strips for breathing and whitestrips for peroxide are great inventions: cheap, easy to manufacture, and high mark ups. not exactly 50 nM biology or sub wavelength optical microscopy which is a whole lot cooler, but the market judges does it not?
other than just rambling I really do agree with all the views here. science is slow and solutions are hard. good inventions which solve commercial problems and can be undertaken with available capital are the key
does anyone have the sept 6 data from this site?
http://www.businesscycle.com/
I agree wholeheartedly. your scenario is completly accurate. the best invention would be to change that scenario. But as an optimist, I do not beleive that the problem is invention. there are really good things out there. the entire problem is speeding up commercialization and the reality process you describe.
augie, for us regular joes: what is gap resistance: a resistance to fill the gap meaning it will tank?
radioactive boat reported not being allowed to dock in Newark port. how is that for a rumor!
ok the trin was not high, the vix was not high, the put call not outrageous. so why did everybody sell?
is it precisely because the big traders were not in?
I mean the only guys operating were the internet types and the lackeys left in the office.
I agree with paul maybe its all a big set up.
on the other hand I do not know why things went up in the first place.
federal reserves may have the answer: no push of money in and some big repos today and tomorrow.
if the funds have no liquidity and everybody is expecting a fed lowering which does not happen and bonds have turned and a commodity like food inflation happens and mortgages go up
it means short everything. but here is already a huge short interest............
on the other hand, the world looks pretty good outside, the grass is green, I can fly anywhere I want for about 300 dollars
and a lot of really neat stuff is coming out of the labs to spark a new tech rally. remember that the internet has compressed time and exaggerated social emotions/group instincts so everything is more turbulent because it happens faster
in fact my merrill broker complained his computers were slow and they refuse to spend money on them. I also know that
very large real estate firms who mostly do email and .docs
use pentium threes from a few years ago and they work very well with win 2000
on the other hand a new p4 2 gig from dell with a 15 inch lcd screen costs less than a new ibm p3 900 without a monitor i bought 12 months ago.
so the prices will come down until there is some balance between need and power.
the new 1 ghz (yes gig : about 30 times faster than a cable modem) networking standard will require some horsepower, so if you are constatntly sending huge wads of data somewhere the horsepower is needed.
the killer apps will be embedded. there is no reason in the world that the cable companies cannot offer point to point
videoconferencing using your tv and a video cam right now. if they can sell you movies they could sell you this, and the processor that runs it will be somewhere in a black box for 89.95. point to point tv is just a matter of routing and using up all that fiber in the ground. and if you have a cable modem you can do it yourself right now for about 1500 dollars for both ends, but point to point tv is better. and I have seen single chips three years ago including the optics that would produce a monitor like a projection tv. thats why lcd is going down in price: the next generation is lurking
ps everyone i know is buying a p4 for 600 bucks for the kids in school. there just is no difference in price anymore.
so it all goes back to where is the capex? and where is the killer app? I think we are in a lag phase before a growth spurt like a 11 year old kid. but who knows when he will start growing
has anyone noticed the banks are coming down? gpt swbt wsfs etc all have double tops.
this anything to do with a huge a mount of money injected?
or just trailer mortgages?
this market makes no sense to me. not change in news and biotechs go up. csco and intel go up because they are "low"
maybe federal reserves is the best way to track the market.
shove money in and people will buy name brands and then they will buy any brands.
then thye will stop for the same reasons as above.
darts look good
commodities
can any one suggest a good commodities fund? although I am probbly too late, the news on wheat and meat suggest that commodity prices will go higher. I am brainless tryong to fund a commodity trading fund on morningstar. are there any of you who know abou this and can make suggestions?
many thanks
its all in a name
yup. but the amazing thing is that the news services do not talk about the distortion. what is the ownership of cnn and cnbc: is there any way to trace arab money.
I know nbc is owned by ge and gates owned? msnbc, but I wonder
if there is something else going on.
any news about how much the fed is pumping in for tomorrow
i suspect that the war will be very like what has already happened in the middle east: hiding military units among civilians and then crying "crimes against humanity" when the civilians get hit. but american tropps will not be there: it will be american special forces and jordanians and turks with the regular army only acting to find and destroy weapons of mass destruction and missiles.
what has amazed me is that denials of complicity and the claims that Osama did not pull off 9/11 for the two months following the event and now the al jazeera interviews with two planners of the attack. the unbeleivable capacity to lie is hard to imagine
trin
the trin does not look like there is any worth to buy in. how good is it as an indicator any way?