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an idea for october
unless the tenor of the overall market changes, two weeks before quarterly earnings come out(around 10/18/04) short everything in sight. Crap happens all the time. Warning season comes and it`s a blue light special for the shorts.
With that in mind, would be a powerful list if others posted what stocks got rock dropped this time around on earnings. Chances are pretty good that if those stocks have shown the same drops last quarter, there is a strong shot at another repeat in Ocober. If we are prepared, we can get short these stocks around 10/18 or so & just wait to ride them down.
Any help on naming the drops will be appreciated. Any comments on this idea also interested.
a comment on the markets in general
normally there may be 2-4 or 5 qualified ($5.00 or over, 100,000 minimum average volume, -12% drop or more) Major Droppers on a day.
There were 12 yesterday & 9 today. Take from this what you can, it doesn't make me feel to secure on the markets.
from an irc poster: funny- rips both candidates
'im sure everyone knows about this .. but if not .. funny as heck !!! http://www.jibjab.com/
jjkool_01- CACS panic sales over the 3 people who left the co. My thoughts yesterday were that it had done most of it's downward move. Today @ $7.00 I was bagging my head on the desk. Decent move back up to $7.42 & up a little more in a/h. Looks like best this will be is to get out even or near even.
On to the next one!
filled OVTI $11.50- mid term hold
in Major_Dropper CACS $8.06 in a/h on terrific history numbers for bounce back.
out with lunch money on INTC
Posted by: mflutie
In reply to: None Date:7/14/2004 4:35:04 PM
Post #of 22331
loaded INTC a/h $23.35,, AMD numbers out & dumpage there as well. INTC not quite a Major_Dropper. Looking for a modest bounce back of around 1/2 today's drop. Will hold this longer than the normal Major_Droppers 5 days.
took TASR profits in pre-market..another Major_Dropper giving nice profits
OVTI & TASR rockin' in pre,, add that to BLTI & I'm havin' one FUNNNNNNNNNNNN week!
nice CEO interview if you are a TASR long!
"we will be delivering Tasers to Iraq & the military is already using them"
4:46PM MSFT Cramer "Microsoft May Keep the Rally Alive -- Its buybacks and special dividend cap a day of positive data points that bode well for the action."
MSFT gonna help an up day tomorrow
OVTI nice close..so far _6.4% ..holding this one
in TASR long on Major_Dropper Day 1 numbers for bounce back
tho short side equally interesting
out BLTI $9.90 +12.5%/25% margin on swEEEET Major_Dropper
if drop back tomorrow will rebuy
BLTI +14/28% margin% to hod,,what a terrific Major_Dropper player this was!
OVTI rolling along nicely
out TRDO +3%/6% margin from Major_Dropper Thursday
Housing Starts -8.5% -bad # ..add in higher (slightly) mortgage rates.. not looking peachy
BLTI pattern history =bounce back
BLTI has had in it's last 3 1/2 years 9 Major_Dropper days of
-12% or more.
Of those 9, 8 went up at least +4.3%/8.6% margin within the next 2 days from the close on drop day.
Solid pattern history of bouncing back for long on the close Past performance quite indicative of future performance, if patterns are strong.
This is a strong pattern.
Conference Call
BIOLASE will host a conference call on Tuesday, July 20 at 11:30 a.m. Eastern Time to discuss its preliminary results for the recent quarter and to answer questions.
To listen to the conference call live via the Internet, visit BIOLASE's web site at www.biolase.com. Please go to the web site 15 minutes prior to its start to register, download and install the necessary audio software. A replay will be available on BIOLASE's web site.
To listen to the conference call live via telephone, please dial (800) 299-7635 from the U.S. or, for international callers, please dial (617) 786-2901, approximately 10 minutes before the start time. Enter pass code number 47195029. A telephone replay will be available for two days by dialing (888) 286-8010 from the U.S., or (617) 801-6888 for international callers, and entering pass code number 83000615.
"We're looking forward to providing our investors with assurances and clarity about BIOLASE's business and our expectations for the coming year," said Jeffrey W. Jones, BIOLASE's President and CEO.
OVTI on Briefing this morning
07:53 OVTI Omnivision Color (12.14 )
JP Morgan out on Omnivision saying concern that the mobile handset market could stall at the VGA level seems to be mis-placed. 1-3 megapixel camera cellphones are being introduced rapidly, and are likely to be material contributors to Omnivision revenues before calendar year-end. Kyocera, Nokia, Sony Ericsson, BenQ, have all committed to 1MPx or above. Samsung and Pantech Curitel are already promoting 3MPx handsets. Between 140 (Nokia) and 150 million (Infotrends) camera cellphones are expected to ship in 2004, approaching 25% of the global handset market in 2004 (Gartner puts global total at 610 million). Based on the mid-point of estimates offered by industry analysts and vendors, the firm expects camera handset shipment growth to exceed 115% in 2004. They see no signs of excess inventory in the channel at present. The firm reiterates its overweight rating noting that with the shares currently trading at 7.4 times CY05 EPS, they believe the stock is dramatically mis-priced.
RunninAmuck
"The problem here is that you guys (administrators) have been too tolerant of BUSH and his BS and have allowed him much more leeway than you have others ... most likely because his posts are pointed toward you (a board administrator), either directly or indirectly."
so correct.
If posts are deleted, censorship is immediately accused. So the posts have been left and not answered. Most individuals would have simply gone onto their own new board with their stated purpose of posting freedom & left everything for the old board behind. Since that has not happened & the posts continued, it was time to answer incorrect statements.
Again, no one has gone to the new Bush board to antagonise or be derogatory in anyway. Hopefully no one wil in the future. And hopefully if Bush wants to continue to post in the manner he has been, he can do it in his own forum.
RunninAmuck: you stated some interesting facts
Nobody has gone to the Bush board to provoke him into coming here and posting BS. Nobody here has gone there to post anything negative. I certainly have respected that it is his board & have not posted there once. His stated idea was to have his own board where he could freely post. Yet he continues to come back here to provoke.
You also stated
"you obviously have a deep-seated need to keep this thing going"
Bush has been attacking for many weeks. Many weeks ago I emailed Bush twice to discuss our situations in private & settle them off the message boards. He never bothered to answer those emails other than to continually spew his venon on the Winners Circle board. Today was the first time I answered them. The answers were simply because Bush posts as facts totally untrue comments. These twisted facts were pointed out in my post and answered with reality.
There is no need to continue the conversation. Winners Circle is for stocks. Bush obviously has problems with me & others here. If Bush will stick to his own board, no one will bother with him.
BushyBushyBushy.. some helpful suggestions for you.
the next time there is a 'self-appointed Sheriff election' you can use these as your campaign mottos
BushyBushyBushy...never met a fact I couldn't attempt to twist"
BushyBushyBushy makes the Outlaw Sheriff of Nottingham look like Mother Theresa
BushyBushyBushy....
your posts are showing more idiosy everyday
"1. You admit to being a big Raging Bull pumper now"
search my name fool, you will see maybe 5 posts on Raging Bull in the last years. A little difficult to be a Raging Bull pumper with just a few posts. As a matter of fact, search my name on any message board. I never, ever pump stocks. Pumps require constant posts on a stock. I never do it.
Dumb comment#1.
"2. You admit to being a big bb otc pump-n-dumper now"
Two OTC stocks posted about by me in the last many years. Both went up huge and both went up quickly. Profit made by anyone who got in on the plays. A little difficult to be a "big bb otc pump-n-dumper" having posted 2 otc stocks in years.
Dumb comment #2.
"I sold for a measly $150 ... and feel sorry for the person you convinced to buy it from me."
You sold the program that you claim is a disaster, yet now you supposedly feel sorry for the buyer. My 'convincing" the person was one post saying I would give that buyer the same updates as anyone else got.
What sort of leach believes something is a disaster, publically posts such over & over, then goes ahead & sells it to someone else! BushyBushyBushy, that's who.
Speaking of true colors as you do, this one is beyond dumb & goes straight to stupid.
And as far as comments about Lion. You were on the Pit under one name for a long time, then got banned because of dumb comments, ,, came back in under another name,,caused problems again there under the Bush2004 name & came to Winners Circle,, then got pissed here & went crawling back to the Pit,,, and now you post how bad Lion is. That adds up to about 5 faced, not 2 faced.
Your posts are fun to read BushyBushyBushy,, foolish, but fun.
Regarding Lion's numbers. I still track them. And I still tell people they are good on the upside if caught when they are called. What I also tell folks is that if the stocks move up, they are then great on the short side, because those that made profits on the call are then getting out & the prices then drop. So there are stratagies to playing the calls. Simply other ways to make money & good to point out to other traders. It was true in the past, it is true now. Currently have 60 stocks tracked back to March. While many of them went up on the initial call & made a profit, 47 of them are now solid with large short side gains from the very first call price. It simply requires patience.
Regarding the 90% figure you keep throwing out. That was never made by me. You are simply repeating something that Lion has thrown out regarding the systems. Factual numbers of success rates have been posted for years. The percent depends on the conservative level of profit one targets. There are very samll profit levels that have shown as much as a consistant 89%.
The ones used have always been the 2.5%/5% margin profit level, & 90% has never been the number stated for consistant success.
Try getting your facts straight in your bomber posts.
(btw: fun to see you knock me, magician lion, & now luckyluciano77...seems you need to knock all those that have proven time & again to be better than you are regarding stocks..another proof of your crybaby attitude)
OVTI Bargain Basement gift
Major_Dropper OVTI quickly paid for the Major_Dropper system going +
In doing dd on OVTI, the drop was also helped by a downgrade from Soundview stating " downgrades OVTI to Underperform from Neutral as the firm lowers estimates. The target is reduced to $10 from $19" & INTC weakness.
This was followed by some smackback upgrades. JP Morgan started the ball rolling with this upgrade.
"OVTI OmniVision added to the JP Morgan Focus List (11.14 )
JP Morgan adds OVTI to the Focus List with $19 price tgt; firm believes that there are positive catalysts ahead for the stock in the next few weeks, including the introduction of 1.3 and 2 MPx chipsets that address the requirements of the second- and third- generation camera cellphone market... believes strong results from SanDisk, announced last night, could turn sentiment around for OVTI... also thinks that the mkt is over-estimating competitive threats."
This was followed by AG Edwards Buy Target $20 and shortened the target time frame to 6 months. Add positives from Forbes as well.
As well, options expiration had an effect on the end of the week pricing. Market sluggishness & general summer doldrums also helped to bring OVTI down.
On Thursday it had a strong bounceback going +15.2% to hod & on Friday it went up +5.3% from Thursday close very quickly after the open before market forces pulled it back down. Friday close was only -2.4% and it is still +10.1% upbove the Major_Dropper close on Wednesday.
OVTI was $16's to $18's just 3 weeks ago. OVTI has the potential to move +25-30% from it's current $12's base within the next 1-2 months. Of course summer market can still pull it down some more from here, but conservative target area is back to the lower end of it's recent numbers into the $15-$16.'s
Do your own dd..imo solid buy for a strong bounce back. Some patience required here.
BushyBushyBushy.. too bad you missed both those otc stocks when they were gotten into. You might actually have made a profit for a change.
You can attempt to spin anyway you want but the reality is that SHGY was bot @ .11/.16 & is currently up 275% - 400%. The buy was posted on the Raging Bull board.
http://www.ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=SHGY&read=6
The info was then given privately to many on IRC.
The other one you refer to, GZFX only went up 50% in 3 trading days.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=3292585
btw: terrific calls by you on your new board with RHAT & MOSY & that beauty HOTT in the group of 10.
NOT!!!!
Just think how many losses were caused to those that might follow your posts in just the short time your board has been open.
BIGTIME ouch!
...and the systems that you were so vehement about,,they are a disaster, ripoff, loser, on & on & on....and then you go sell them to someone else.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!
last 2 weeks of qualified Major_Droppers posted here
in max 5 day hold period have done the following:
28 of 33 hit for 85% success long side
27 of 33 hit for 82% success short side
this success rate has been constant going back 2 1/2 years of trackings.
of 1300 Major_Dropper trades currently tracked going back to 1/2/02
long side +2%/4% margin has hit 84%
short side -2%/4% margin has hit 82%
of someone else's 'fuzzy math' claim that 'new formula testing...predicted "9 out of your 10 pics will hit 2% to the upside and also 2% to the downside" (90% success rate)
long side went 5 of 10 for 50% success
short side went 7 for 10 for 70% success
one of the 10 was hit for a -18.8% drop during the week as well.
not too successful
TRDO worked perfectly with Major_Popper history numbers today. Even with NAS very weak all day , TRDO had a +2.7% hod from yesterday's close. Easy money for anyone who saw the history numbers as posted yestrday.
"solid long Major_Dropper TRDO a/h @ $10.72..TRDO has a 6 for 6 record on Major_Droppers over the last 3 years of strong bounce backs off the closing price, which is $10.85
very weak short side history after Major_Dropper move"
in HOTT $16.40 on downgrade
solid long Major_Dropper TRDO a/h @ $10.72..TRDO has a 6 for 6 record on Major_Droppers over the last 3 years of strong bounce backs off the closing price, which is $10.85
very weak short side history after Major_Dropper move
This week's qualified Major_Droppers so far
this post will be referred back to on the coming weekend
ELAB 12-Jul close @ $30.54
CENT 12-Jul close @ $29.85
IPXL 12-Jul close @ $14.74
SCSS 13-Jul close @$17.99
SLNK 13-Jul close @$9.43
RHAT 13-Jul close @$15.73
BNSO 13-Jul close @$7.49
TZOO 13-Jul close @$25.20
ADTN 13-Jul close @$25.56
OVTI 14-Jul close @$11.14
RTEC 14-Jul close @$14.28
SIGM 14-Jul close @$6.32
bad number- U.S. JUNE INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT DOWN 0.3% VS FORECAST 0.0%
previous revised lower
loaded INTC a/h $23.35,, AMD numbers out & dumpage there as well. INTC not quite a Major_Dropper. Looking for a modest bounce back of around 1/2 today's drop. Will hold this longer than the normal Major_Droppers 5 days.
XNVA- Xenova: initial anti-smoking vaccine trial a success
At week six, 19 out of the 44 subjects receiving TA-NIC voluntarily gave up smoking or reported reduced pleasure when smoking compared to only 1 out of 11 receiving the placebo.
retail numbers not pretty
8:30am U.S. JUNE RETAIL SALES FALL 1.1% VS. -0.7% EXPECTED
8:30am U.S. JUNE RETAIL SALES EX-AUTOS FALL 0.2%
8:30am U.S. JUNE RETAIL SALES BIGGEST DECLINE SINCE FEB. 2003
8:30am U.S. MAY RETAIL SALES REVISED TO 1.4% VS. 1.2%
8:30am U.S. JUNE RETAIL SALES EX-AUTOS, EX-GAS DOWN 0.1%
8:30am U.S. JUNE AUTO SALES FALL 4.3%, MOST SINCE FEB. 2003
Smile_B..sold that one quite a while ago..that was when all the 'no otc on the board ' posts were first out.
Smilin_B
regarding your post. I have sold & rebought my trading shares a number of times.
Still hold the shares originally bought @ .11 @ .16. Google IPO is probably now at the end of July. I'm staying in for the gamble of bigger returns.
My 1st posts were on the SHGY Raging Bull board when I got in @ .10/.11., then on the IHub SHGY board & then at WC. Fun to see the negative people try to make a stand on the post made in the .70's and ignore the fact that the stock was posted @ .10/.11. Also they conveniently avoid mentioning the fact that the post specifically said it was a gamble on a sympathy move against the Google IPO. The post also stated it had already gone up 600% in 2 weeks (making sure anyone reading the post knew that it had already had a terrific run) & that IMO it could have another 100% in the next 1-2 months. That post was just 1 week ago. Some patience just might be required.
Everything was stated straight forward.
The run could still happen & I'll hold it to see. If it crashes, I was wrong on the hold. The profits already experienced way more than offset any downside.
brokerages must be major short & are desperately trying to hold back any market moves up.. downgrades yesterday & now again this morning UBSW downgraded about 50 stocks.
They all are cognizent of the fact that last 19 election years, May is the worst month followed by Apr, best Aug Jul Jun in that order
The games they play...
Major_Droppers
this post will be referred back to on the coming weekend
Last weeks qualified Major_Droppers were:
VRTS 6-Jul close @ $17.00 -36.0%
EMBT 6-Jul close @$8.60 -26.9%
MUSE 6-Jul close @$5.17 -20.1%
KVHI 6-Jul close @$10.15 -18.8%
LSCC 6-Jul close @$5.65 -15.3%
ESPD 6-Jul close @$11.39 -12.5%
SCUR 7-Jul close @$6.33 -36.3%
FILE 7-Jul close @ $23.04 -17.5%
AIRT 7-Jul close @$16.05 -15.1%
LWAY 7-Jul close @$16.62 -13.6%
IPIX 7-Jul close @ $10.72 -12.4%
PLCE 8-Jul close @$19.30 -15.9%
ARIA 8-Jul close @$5.81 -15.3%
SEBL 8-Jul close @$7.98 -13.4%
IDSA 8-Jul close @$10.81 -12.8%
ESMC 8-Jul close @$10.46 -12.5%
ZIXI 8-Jul close @$5.96 -12.4%
BLDP 9-Jul close @$7.26 -18.7%
MOSY 9-Jul close @$5.35 -12.3%
This week's qualified Major_Droppers
ELAB 12-Jul close @ $30.54
CENT 12-Jul close @ $29.85
IPXL 12-Jul close @ $14.74