Old and still drinking water and eating dry white toast.
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It's the unwritten RULE that the first person up makes the COFFEE....
...GOOD MORNING ALL
I back the TRUCK up at $19, $9 and the $3.75....
...this OLD truck is READY to RUN.
But only after you SELL early and then BUY at the TOP because you miss the RALLY
...and then WATCH the entire MARKET turn against your TRADE.
Looks like I sold early - and I slept during the 250 point rally.
Waiting for a AUD/USD pullback - hopefully during the Tokyo lunch-hour...slow rollover on the 5 min chart.
Closed LONG AUD/USD - 35 pips
LONG AUD/USD...
...it's moving as fast as HONEY
We may have to change your name to Doctor Doom (Victor von Doom)....
Animal names have always been apart of the wall street lore....what better way to learn trading FX then having FX-pair names.
Turtle
Beast
Ugly Sister
Alot of the FX-PAIR naming was from CaT ((Ataglance2))
days when he was the RULER of the FX-SANDBOX....
....it was the SECRET HANDSHAKE of the FX-IHUB clubhouse.
Pick pocket Sunday is a name that cAt uses to describe the various FX-trading sessions. Babypips has a lesson on the best times to trade the markets...as noted below.
One could WORK only a two day week - TUES and WED and go with the MONEY FLOW FX-trades
Best Days of the Week to Trade Forex
Ok, so now we know that the London session is the busiest out of all the other sessions, but there are also certain days in the week where all the markets tend to show more movement. Below is a chart of average pip range for the 4 major pairs for each day of the week:
You can see that during the middle of the week is where the most movement is seen on all 4 major pairs. Fridays are usually busy until 12pm EST and then the market pretty much drops dead until it closes at 5pm EST. This means we only work half-days on Fridays. The weekend always starts early! Yippee!
So based on these three simple pieces, we’ve learned when the busiest times of the market are. These are the best times to trade because they give us a higher chance of success.
Link - http://www.babypips.com/school/best_days_of_the_week_to_trade.html
House Panel Sets Hearing on Mark-to-Market Accounting
A House Financial Services subcomittee has scheduled a March 12 hearing on mark-to-market accounting rules -- a dry-sounding topic that likely would have a massive impact on the struggling big banks and the wider economy if it were altered.
Simply put, mark-to-market accounting rules, enforced by the SEC and the government's designated accounting oversight group, require a company to value -- or "mark" -- assets on its books based on the price they would bring if they were sold today.
In theory, mark-to-market provides good information for potential investors and prevents businesses from assigning any value they choose -- likely a higher one -- to things they own.
But mark-to-market can cripple businesses when no market for an asset exists, like now.
Big banks are struggling to survive -- shares of Citigroup, once the world's largest bank, closed at $1.02 today -- because their balance sheets are poisoned with assets for which no market exists. Chiefly, the mortgage-backed securities based on lousy mortgages. No one wants to buy them right now, so that means no market exists.
Some day, there will be a market for those securities. But until there is, banks have to account for them at fire-sale prices, and that's what's making the banks sick.
Many in financial services sector have argued for a relaxation, or temporary suspension, of mark-to-market as a way to help out the sick banks.
In theory, if banks no longer had to account for these valueless assets on their books, their balance sheets would suddenly improve and -- this is the important part -- private capital would start to flow back into the banks. Right now, an estimated $9 trillion to $10 trillion of private capital is sitting on the sidelines because it doesn't want to invest in sick companies.
Again, in theory, if mark-to-market were temporarily lifted, the big banks could get well almost overnight.
(Another way to achieve this goal is the creation of a "bad bank" that would take all the toxic assets off the books of private banks and put them in one federally run bank, possibly called The Worst Bank In the World.)
The downside? If mark-to-market is lifted for good, or is made too lax, companies could create balance sheets that are pure fiction, giving potential investors zero insight into the health of companies.
So this is why, next Thursday at 10 a.m., Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D-Penn.), will convene a hearing of the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Capital Markets, Insurance, and Government Sponsored Enterprises to talk about mark-to-market.
"Illiquid markets have resulted in great difficulty in valuing sizable assets," Kanjorski said in a statement. "Some have therefore complained about fair value accounting and sought to eliminate it. While companies need stability, investors still need accurate information. We therefore cannot allow for fantasy accounting that wishes away bad assets by merely concealing them.”
link - http://voices.washingtonpost.com/economy-watch/2009/03/report_house_panel_sets_hearin.html?hpid=topnews
Is Harvest Energy Trust's Premium Valuation Justified?
by: One Blog March 04, 2008
Harvest Trust Energy (HTE), a Canadian Oil and Natural Gas royalty trust formed in 2002, had its initial public offering [IPO] on December 5, 2002. It raised $34.5M at $8 per share then and a secondary offering in February 2003 raised another $15M at $10 per share. The trust also initiated its monthly dividend distribution immediately after the IPO. The distribution started at 20c per share and progressively went up to 38c per share and remained at that level for a couple of years before the recent slash to 30c per share.
The business plan at IPO was to acquire mature properties and eke out additional value by using production enhancement and optimization efforts. The initial acquisitions were mature oil producing properties in Eastern Alberta. Since then, the company diversified into natural gas properties although production is weighted 70% in favor to oil. In October 2006, they acquired North Atlantic refinery for C$1.6B.
HTE is structured as a Canadian Royalty Trust (CanRoy) and has a monthly dividend distribution policy. CanRoys have certain tax advantages that are set to expire by 2011. The company announced a 20% dividend cut in mid-November, which prompted an immediate sell off. The yield is now close to 15%.
Business Issues
Harvest Trust Energy classifies itself as an integrated energy company reflecting their presence in both the upstream and downstream businesses. This is a moot point though, as logistical issues prevent them from using the oil produced in their refinery. The refinery needs around 110,0000 bbls per day while upstream production is only about half of that. Further, the feedstock requirement is medium sour crude oil while the production is spread-out over light, medium, heavy oil, and natural gases.
Considering the refinery output to be around 115,000 bbls per day, the acquisition price for North Atlantic Refinery can be broken down to be around 14000 per flowing barrel. This price was at the upper end for refineries at the time. The rest of the business is valued at about $3.6B.
The company also employs an extensive hedging strategy. It is planned such that there is only minimal or no cost in a low price environment, when Harvest would otherwise be less able to afford the cost of such ‘insurance’.
The three types of hedging in place are:
Crude Oil Hedges for Upstream,
Refined Product Hedges for Downstream, and
Currency Exchange Rate Hedges.
Currency hedging is essential to mitigate the operational risk of costs being in the local currency (Canadian dollars) while the revenue is in US dollars. The complex nature of the remaining hedging types indicates more of a throwback to hedging strategies employed by the acquired companies rather than an optimized strategy allowing for the business risks. Specifically, a much simpler strategy should be worked out, which takes into account the fact that roughly half of the feedstock requirements for the refinery need not be hedged since production is in that range.
Harvest along with other Canadian royalty trusts is negatively affected by a Canadian tax law change that comes into effect in the 2011 timeframe for existing trusts. When the tax-exempt status on distributions expires, the trusts will pay taxes like other regular corporations. The probable scenario then is for Harvest to act like a regular corporation with the lion share of its cash flow going for capital expenditures to fund future growth as opposed to distributions. Similarly the shareholder base will also experience a shift from income-oriented investors to growth-oriented investors prior to that timeframe.
Provincial royalties also has an impact on Harvest. Specifically, Alberta recently unveiled plans for increased royalties in the 2010 timeframe and Harvest has a major portion of its upstream business in the area. The counter measure from the company was to reduce capital expenditures in the area. While this can help send a message to regulators, the company needs to organize itself better for a high-tax scenario.
Outlook
Harvest’s upstream oil and gas production is weighted approximately 73% in crude oil and liquids and 27% in natural gas, and is complemented by its long-life refining and marketing business. The company’s current focus is on sustainability. Weak natural gas, high cost in western Canada upstream business, royalty framework increases in Alberta, and the strength of the Canadian dollar are the current challenges facing the Harvest. The company’s course is to adapt by implementing a growth strategy using very selective capex investments.
HTE’s sustainable growth strategy in its upstream business is dependent on its access to over 2B BOE of reserve. The recovery is less than 30% and the contention is that 20M will be added to its Proven and Probable [P&P] reserves for every one-percentage increase in recovery using technological advancements. Since that amounts to 10% of the existing P&P reserves the potential is huge. The execution of this strategy requires high oil prices, as its OOIP reserves are either mature properties or oil sands, both of which are capital intensive. The downstream business is by nature highly cyclical as indicated by the crack spread.
The company is valued in the high end of CanRoys. This premium valuation is somewhat justified, given its oil weighting and refinery diversification. The dependency of the company’s prospects on the highly cyclical refinery crack spreads and uncertainties surrounding the royalty and tax effects should together keep the shares volatile for the foreseeable future. It should act as a good trading stock in diversified stock portfolios.
Pick pocket Sunday are always slow....
Time to break out the PIP'S protein powder...
FX markets to open one hour early this weekend...
....daylighting saving.....SPRING forward and FALL backward.
I've been trading only the AUD/USD and AUD/JPY for the last month, since I'm still trapped in my LONG AUD/USD.
I'm using a SHORT AUD/JPY as an insurance policy to protect my downside risk on my LONG AUD/USD, when the trade goes against me.
WORN has a cracker for you....
...I'm making a run for the Mexican BORDER next week.
You have to look pass today....
...and look toward it's future worth, the sun will rise tomorrow and so will my retirement accounts.
If not on to Plan B.
Tiny steps...
...by the summer you will passing the rubberband man in the hallwall...and the end of the year you be the CEO.
Not today - but maybe in a few months
A few more months and the sweetness will return
Time to back up the truck
Your bottom is here
Sorry to here that - I'm not sure that I could last for 6 years of unemployment and try to manage the different career changes during that time.... GOOD-LUCK
I've only been out of work for six months out of the last 12 years, so the last two months of unemployment has given me more time to spend with the Family and try to plan our future....
...only one more week before the next Chapter of my life begins to unfold.
The plus side is it's a JOB and it counts as experience on the resume, but only it you accept the position. GOOD-LUCK
I would take the real job....and pass on the FOREX for the time being.
Yep - that why the stock is in a FREEFALL - time to average down or WASH sale depending upon where it's being held. GOOD-LUCK
Bought some more shares for my Retirement acocunts - holding for the Long-term.
Glad to see you climb out of the spider hole - the Budettes were 24-7 WORN-worry. GOOD-LUCK staying out of trouble.
...Federal TAX refund just appear in the BANK account today...
....I'm planning on paying off the credit cards, before the wife SEE the money.
Samoas bars - Hmmmm....
...time for a cookie run.
Selling Girl Scout Cookies...
Europe’s banks face a $2 trillion dollar shortage
European banks face a US dollar “funding gap” of almost $2 trillion as a result of aggressive expansion around the world and may have difficulties rolling over debts, according to a report by the Bank for International Settlements.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 8:41PM GMT 04 Mar 2009
The BIS said European and British banks have relied on an “unstable” source of funding, borrowing in their local currencies to finance “long positions in US dollars”. Much of this has to be rolled over in short-term debt markets. The currency mismatch has become a potential risk for banks as the dollar continues to climb against the euro and Swiss franc, and especially sterling and Sweden’s krona.
“The build-up of large net US dollar positions exposed these banks to funding risk, or the risk that their funding positions could not be rolled over,” said the BIS.
The report, entitled “US dollar shortage in global banking”, helps explain why there has been such a frantic scramble for dollars each time the credit crisis takes a turn for the worse. Many investors have been wrong-footed by the powerful rally in the dollar against almost all currencies, except the yen.
British banks have borrowed some $800bn in sterling to make dollar investments and loans. By mid-2007 they had accumulated what amounted to a $300bn net “short position” on the US dollar. The latest BIS data up to the third quarter of 2008 shows that this exposure has been trimmed by “deleveraging” but it still largely hanging over the UK financial institutions.
Swiss banks had a funding gap of $300bn at the onset of the credit crunch, an extremely high figure relative to Swiss GDP. German banks were $300bn short, and Dutch banks were $150bn short. Belgian and French banks were neutral.
The BIS said the total “funding gap” in dollars was around $2.2 trillion at the peak, when money market liabilities are included. This had fallen to around $2 trillion by the time of the Lehman Brothers collapse. The data is collected with a lag but it appears that there are still huge dollar liabilities to be covered.
Simon Derrick, currency chief at the Bank of New York Mellon, said the implications are obvious. “The global bullion of the last eight years was funded on dollar balance sheets, so the capital destruction we’re seeing leaves banks starved for dollars. Dollar is clearly going to appreciate a lot further,” he said.
Bank for International Settlements
The US dollar shortage in global banking
http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt0903f.pdf
Asteroid NEAR miss, DOW low...time for the OBAMA rally and WORN to come out from under his BED.
Phew! Asteroid's passing was a cosmic near-miss
PASADENA, Calif. – An asteroid about the size of one that blasted Siberia a century ago just buzzed by Earth.
NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory reported that the asteroid zoomed past Monday morning.
The asteroid named 2009 DD45 was about 48,800 miles from Earth. That is just twice the height of some telecommunications satellites and about a fifth of the distance to the Moon.
The space ball measured between 69 feet and 154 feet in diameter. The Planetary Society said that made it the same size as an asteroid that exploded over Siberia in 1908 and leveled more than 800 square miles of forest.
Most people probably didn't notice the cosmic close call. The asteroid was only spotted two days ago and at its closest point passed over the Pacific Ocean near Tahiti.
Lucy, I'm Home.....
Obama Says Now May Be Good Time to Invest in Stocks (Update3)
By Roger Runningen and Robert Hutton
March 3 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama said falling share prices may mean bargains for investors with a “long-term perspective.”
Obama, who is seeking to boost public confidence in his strategy to pull the U.S. out of recession, spoke a day after stock markets tumbled. The Dow Jones Industrial Average yesterday dropped below 7,000 for the first time since 1997. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index closed at the lowest level since October 1996.
“What you’re now seeing is profit and earning ratios are starting to get to the point where buying stocks is a potentially good deal, if you’ve got a long-term perspective on it,” Obama said at the White House today while meeting with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown on battling the global recession.
The sell-off in the S&P 500 yesterday left companies in the index valued at their cheapest relative to earnings since 1986. The measure traded at 12.2 times company profits from the past 10 years, according to data compiled by Yale University professor Robert Shiller, who uses a decade of earnings to smooth out short-term fluctuations.
The S&P 500, the benchmark measure of U.S. stocks, has dropped 23 percent this year following a 38 percent decline in 2008 that was the steepest annual retreat since 1937. The S&P 500 fell 4.49 points to 696.33 in New York today. The Dow fell 37.27 points to 6726.02.
Helping Confidence
“Whether you agree with how he’s going about it or not, he’s trying to help confidence,” Bill Stone, who helps oversee about $110 billion as chief investment strategist at PNC Wealth Management in Philadelphia, said of Obama’s comments. “Certainly a piece of the confidence is to get the market stabilized.”
Obama compared the daily market fluctuations to a tracking poll in politics and said he wouldn’t be adjusting his policies just to meet daily market expectations.
“If you spend all your time worrying about that, then you’re probably going to get the long-term strategy wrong,” he said.
The president also said that consumer confidence is “taking root” with enactment of the $787 billion package of spending and tax cuts he won from Congress last month.
“There are a lot of losses that are working their way through the system,” Obama said. “And it’s not surprising that the market is hurting as a consequence.”
‘Unusual’ Comments
Presidents often steer clear of detailed comments about the markets, making Obama’s statements today “unusual,” said Steffen Schmidt, a political science professor at Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa. Obama’s decision to speak at length on the topic may have resulted from criticism that he’s spent too much time talking down the economy, Schmidt and other analysts said.
“The president appears to be realizing that his persistently gloomy outlook on the economy may be spooking consumers and investors,” said David Primo, a political science professor at the University of Rochester in New York. “This may be a calculated attempt to balance earlier remarks.”
Diane Garnick, who helps oversee $354 billion as an investment strategist at Invesco Ltd. in New York, said Obama’s remarks aren’t going to influence big investors.
“I’ve never heard of any professional investor saying that part of his investment strategy is to listen to the president’s opinion,” Garnick said. “They may listen to an economist or the Federal Reserve, but not a politician.”
White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said Obama wasn’t necessarily recommending the public invest in the stock market.
“The president has, on many occasions, talked about brighter days for our economy are ahead,” Gibbs said. “It’s not his job to comment on or react to what the market does, up and down, on any given day but instead to look at the longer term and longer horizon.”
Along with the stimulus plan, Obama also has announced plans to revamp regulations for U.S. financial markets and moved to shore up banks as part of his economic recovery strategy. Obama’s budget seeks standby authority for as much as $750 billion in new aid to the financial industry.
Obama and Brown said stabilizing the banking system is crucial to reviving economies around the world.
“We’ve got to isolate bad assets,” Brown told reporters. “A bad bank anywhere can affect a good bank anywhere.”
Brown, who will be the host for a summit of the Group of 20 developed and developing countries in London on April 2, aims during today’s pre-summit talks with Obama to forge a partnership to fight the financial slump.
We are ALL DOOMED....
...no place to hide from the Demo'crap Rob'n Hood
Prepare and send him an invoice for the cleaning service, ....
....he's working and he should be able to afford the 5-star Hotel accomodations.
I forgot your one of the 60's Flower girl....
She's still a SPRING chicken...
Bruce Springsteen - Atlantic City
Can I answer your questions, after I take my DOG scuba diving?
Worn is using Play money....
....and Jester is playing with REAL money.