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This should be at 13 already
Thanks for tget
Nothing there either. You invested here?
Anybody here?
howdy....in or the long haul
Why isn't TD allowing me to buy?
Nothing bad about that
Wonder what will be
Anyone here?
Didn't they just do a reverse split? 1/10?
How is it that this trades for $53 on the London exchange and only $3 here?
Hey Johnson nice to see you again. Can you tell me quickly what is the deal with this stock?
They will eventually request to change it
When the "sellers" want to convert their c shares into common, that's when you'll realize
Dude get real. He's buying it for a place to stay when he wants to go on vacation free of charge. Why not?
This guy is too funny. He's using CDFT as his own piggy bank. Wow am I glad I got out of this when I did. The guy is a crook like no other. I spoke to him a couple of years back, sounded like a crook then too.
Hello! Anyone here?
Why wouldn't they buy Path as well. They can still get a steal of a deal and own the only two drugs out there for this type of pain.....no brainer if you ask me they already spent almost a billion what's another 200million
Wow! I thought you were kidding. That is a nice premium.
I still think you are wrong. If they were selling you would see large blocks on the sell side. This is not happening. The blocks are tiny and any slap brings the stock up/down
Your assuming that they WILL dump it. How do you know they won't hold it for more profits in the future. Also, 15m is hardly a large number to dump and be finished once and for all.
I'm just curious, if you are so sure the insiders are dumping then what are you doing here? Why waste your time, why invest in a stock where insiders are dumping. Give me a break you have been proved wrong many times.
NuPathe Raised to Strong Buy From Buy by WBB Securities >PATH
Last update: 1/22/2013 8:08:18 AM
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 22, 2013 08:08 ET (13:08 GMT)
How do you figure? Just trying to make convo not testing you ;)
I did some reading up on our executive team. I gotta say they all have pretty impressive backgrounds.
I hope they put their experiences to use and make this company into a billion dollar one.
That was not my post. If you follow the prior postings you will see that.
A poster on yahoo boards. I know never to trust YB but I tend to read them.
-------
if anyone followed my postings closely here starting late yesterday he could have made a ton of money like I did - so what's going on with PATH ? Why the underwhelming performance today? Some answers for you:
1.
Approval wasn't in fact a big surprise as efficiacy was clearly demonstrated in clinical trials. The company screwed up the last FDA PDUFA date only because of manufacturing issues. So this time around it was quite clear they adressed this issue in the meantime.
2.
Despite the good clinical data the company was required to start as much as three post-marketing trials to address remaining safety concerns. This was clearly unexpected and the company did not mention it in yesterday's approval press release either. Costs for the additional trials are estimated to be "a few million dollars". While post-marketing trials are sometimes required by the FDA in this case based on the strong clinical data NuPathe should have been able to avoid them - also the news was poorly communicated - at least one analyst was clearly puzzled on the call.
3.
In order to stay afloat the company did a brutally dilutive equity financing in October 2012 selling 14 million shares and warrants at $2 - (at this point the stock was trading at $4.34). With the warrants now in the money the diluted share count rises to at least 43 million. On a positive note the company will receive another $28 mln in cash from the exercise of the warrants so at least they will get something in exchange for another 33% dilution. With 28 million new shares bought at $2 there is a sizeable oversupply of in the money shares at this point. The owners of these shares will pocket nice gains even at a price point of $ 2.20 - so I would expect ongoing distribution going forward (with the stock having closed at day lows this prediction isn't that difficult). With trading volume to cool down going forward the oversupply of cheap shares might weigh even more on the share price so this one might see $2.50 before these shares are fully absorbed.
4.
The conference call offered little to no details about the commercialization path going forward with the few insights being decidedly negative. Currently there are no advanced discussions with potential partners at hand, so they are actually starting almost from scratch now. In this context the very late launch date (4th quarter 2013) becomes somewhat more understandable. With management seemingly having no real conception about what kind of partnership they would like to pursue I got the impression that they just tried to survive until approval and now will start to work again finally. Again I was puzzled when the CEO was talking about hiring a sizeable salesforce (up to 90 salespeople) - for exactly these kind of duties small and big pharma companies establish partnerships. Obviously they are already preparing for a worst case scenario with a weak partnership agreement or even a go it alone approach.
5.
Management made quite clear on the call that the company will need much more money to prepare the drug launch. Until I heard of the salesforce hiring plans I was wondering why as they will get another $28 mln from the exercise of warrants pretty soon which would leave the company with cash on hand above $50 mln before any upfront payments from a potential partnership. The company already filed a $100 mln shelf recently so another huge financing round is likely a matter of weeks or even days. If they pull the full amount at a stock price of perhaps $2.50 this would add another 40 million shares (close to 50% dilution again). With then at least 83 million shares outstanding the market cap would be a whopping $200 mln (at just $2.50 a share). With Zecuity peak sales estimated to be around or slightly above $100mln annually even at $2.50 the shares doesn't exactly look like a bargain.
6.
Given the fact that the company did close to nothing so far to prepare for the drug launch even the late launch date looks ambitious at this time (one analyst was asking about this on the call, too). A further delay most likely caused by a weak partnership deal without salesforce sharing or the need to go it alone would kill the stock.
Bottom line:
The stock is suffering from multiple pressures which will stay in place for some time going forward. To get the shares back on track the following things need to happen:
1)
Work through the oversupply of 28 mln cheap shares issued at $2.
2)
Avoiding another desastrous financing round like that in October - with the approval as a tailwind the company should have some more negotiation power this time. Investors might already be prepared to cheer a financing round which leaves them only 10-20% in the hole this time (quite understandable as most of them acquired the shares at $2). On the other hand another discounted financing with perhaps as much as 40 mln shares will again create a giant overhang here. If they are really pulling the full shelf registration the share price will most likely stay depressed for years.
3)
Announcing a well negotiated partnership deal with a HUGE upfront payment which helps to avoid further dilution for equityholders - such a deal would be applauded by analysts and investors but I doubt they will be able to negotiate something really big. Given the rather cautious language from management on the call I wouldn't bet on a great deal here but as they are just starting discussions only time will tell here.
So short term the stock still looks like a good bet on the short side as another huge financing round is close at hand. The company can't wait for a partnership agreement which most likely will take months to be completed. If they wait though this would delay the product launch so either way they lose here.
Longer term it's all about negotiating a great partnership deal which helps avoid further equity dilution and might even move forward the product launch. If they fail to announce a good deal or won't be able to secure a deal at all the stock should see new lows before the launch. So keep your fingers crossed that big pharma bites into Zecuity soon and strong.
I'm scared after reading about all the up coming dilution. I'm at a fork, don't know what to do. Cut my losses or tread and hopefully get picked up by a massive cruise ship.
Hope you're right ;)
Go for it. Consider yourself lucky. My average is much higher.
I don't understand the question you sent me.
Insiders were not dumping, they can't unless it holds above $4
As someone posted earlier, the volume on Friday was churning volume. Only a little over 4m was traded.
My advice is there is great potential here for a nice sized gain, why take a loss when you can wait a bit and make money.
On for the long haul, they don't need to sell much to turn a respectable profit.
maybe someone can help me.
If the float is only around 14million how do we trade half of that?
Where are the shares coming from?
youre wrong about insider dumping. read page 9 of your post. there are specific price points at which they are allowed to sell, all of which are $4 and above. so this cant be them.
what DD is there besides for them getting approved? I believe this is a raid by the short sellers.
im long......but is that wishful thinking? we should be skyrocketing if that was the case.
how do you see that? look where we are, we were at 4.10 now under 4 again.
why are we tanking?
They have. An astronomical amount of debt