Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
IAC: - you didn't talk me out of anything; my daily chart on Thursday flipped a hollow red candlestick right on support going into a Friday. I somewhat expected a reversal, if anything to profit take on short positions before the long weekend. I was also considering the never ending stream stimulus packages, and the short-term effect on the markets.
...and if I remember correctly I asked you what your opinions were, not the other way around.
Speculate away--that's what this thread is for.
Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble [video]
Tony Cherniawski, The Practical Investor discusses comments made by investment guru, Jim Rogers. Sometimes gurus make calls ahead of their time, but they can still be profitable with a little help form technical analysis.
I kinda sat on my hands... covered my short on the S&P500 on Thursday - but stayed long gold only because of what the ADX indicator is reading - there's trend strength in those gold charts.
...and I'll try and recapture my short here this morning, then back to sitting on my hands.
Marc Faber, Ph.D. "Dr. Doom" [audio]
http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2009-0214-2.mp3
Jim Rogers abolish the WB and the IMF [video]
Triangles or Pennants? [video]
Dubai is in Turmoil [video]
OT /// TOUR OF CALIFORNIA
here's the direct link for the live feed on the internets -- it's a flash based webpage with GPS data, play-by-play, chat room and the race.
http://tracker.amgentourofcalifornia.com/
...and an alternate:
http://www.steephill.tv/tour-of-california/
Start List
http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2009/feb09/california09/?id=startlist
IMHO, the best cycling chat board in the world:
http://www.podiumcafe.com/
...and the best place to find links for all events related to cycling:
http://www.cyclingfans.com
...thanks for the welcoming message...
I think I'm glad to be back...but I'm not so sure...sitting in front of a computer for 8-hrs (or more) per day is not exactly what I would call freedom from employment. It's like my iMac has become the warden in my life, dictating my hours, dictating my moods, dictating my networth...?
Gotta be a better way...
Anyway, my return has something to do with seeing the end of capitalism. I want to experience the final trade--short of course, before they finally pull the plug on the NYSE.
...and why not? With all of these bail-out packages, they forgot to legislate honesty, which is key to our economic recovery.
Btw, Happy Birthday....!!!
...and welcome to the club of old men.
okay, uh... I got nothing to offer...no trades...sitting on my hands.
I'll wait this one out until it becomes a no brainer.
I'll be around in the tomorrow morning to post some links for the Tour Of California--prologue is tomorrow afternoon and they're apparently broadcasting on both Versus and the internet.
...and have a great weekend...!!!
later.......
thanks...eom.
I'm wondering when and at what price I take the SPX short again--gold has been a great contrarian indicator but has been rather quiet here today, and my favorite gold index is nearly in a coma--actually, so is the SPX.
Bear markets are notorious for having bad Fridays and even worse Mondays, but what do I do here in the last hour...?
hmm...
the daily on the SPX screams short... and the daily on the XGD screams caution.
...again, this breeds more indecision...
cash...?
Obama Team May Not Be Friendly To Gold
by John Embry
February 20, 2009
Sprott Asset Management
#msg-35579034
just teasing Kastel--he apparently has no style--which makes the him Bruce Lee of the hedge fund world.
anyway, I'm in total agreement with what you're saying -- for me as a IT trader I wouldn't even think about being in this market because it has become short term market. As a short term trader I have a tendency to suffer from fatigue, and without a properly oscillating chart I soon suffer from burn-out.
...so we'll see if I can adapt to a new reality, but then gold is trending...old habits die hard.
later...
Looking like tomorrow will be a big gold day (or the potential is there).
I'm thinking the same thing--if only Kastel could trade with your style. <vbg>
okay, stopped out -- cashed up on the SPX -- lost the dot on the hourly, hollow red on the daily.
SPX is now acting like a junior gold stock--talk about volatility...?
...
yeah... it's there--blue lines and all.
That said, I'm working with a 21-day hourly, so I'm slower to turn neutral than you are. I also need the last hour of trading before I'm comfortable with making a "call" on what I might think will happen tomorrow.
-- I posted my proxy of the S&P (see chart below) and simplistically enough, I trade around the SAR dots and as long as they're overhead, and below the centreline of the Bollinger Bands--my position pretty much stays static unless I see some huge volume cross.
I'll think about it--I'll reply within the hour...
yes, I can see it... btw, we all trade with different psychology--so I'm not saying that you're right or wrong--just an opinion...
XGD: we've had very little volume, so far, today. Yesterday, the volume happened essentially in the first two hours of the day--with no follow up at the close. So I'm not surprised that we're flat today, if anything, I expected a test of the horizontal support line (in the chart below)...so I'm thinking the index is consolidating in mid-air, which to me says there aren't too many people who think this thing is going to come down. So if we get a high positive volume swing into the last hour, my guess is that we'll see another monster up day tomorrow.
well... I've been silent because short the S&P500/long gold has been working for me--and fwiw, I see no technical reason to cover my short. or close my long positions.
okay... back to sitting on my hands.
the volume has dried up on the gold stock indices--weird...!
...but I wouldn't be surprised to see it snap back to green in the last 5-minutes or so.
The Recent History of Gold, 1954-2009
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/the-recent-history-of-gold-1954-2009/
K...I figured it would be a small correction--if/when we finally break-out (as noted on the hourly), possibly tomorrow, we could have a very profitable Wednesday, Thursday, Friday--and we could very well see POG over a $1000.
the GLD is now trading below the 9-day MA -- this in itself isn't a bearish call --but I do not buy anything that trades below it, and in the times that I have done so, it costed me.
What I would love to see happen today (or tomorrow) is gold finding support at $900 , it'll do the small cap sector wonders once this is in play.
very left brained mathmatical type folks - myself and my wife
but it's not too late to change. <ggg>
I used to have a large amount of useless info like trigonometry tables pretty much memorised, and able to guess what the outcome of a mathematical formula just by looking at it.
I'll explain this one on the weekend, it may convince you that it really is over.
you already know--I'm back to take it short, it'll be my last trade.
<vbg>
that said, on the weekends I'll keep posting the end-times stuff--you can view it as entertainment or take it seriously--in the end we're all dead anyway.
I'll also add that your comment about getting into some really hot chicks...my speculation is that we'll see the endtimes in a Rome kinda a way--public orgies because it doesn't matter anymore...?
I do believe it'll be a chaotic free-for-all, which is not conducive to bull markets.
IAC: - the only exception I'll take from your post is the "OT" at the beginning.
"a complete fabrication and a chance for a lot of people to cash in."
-- no doubt, there's a whole industry being created around these esoteric stories--I mean really, there's a long list of people touring around the country selling tickets to their seminars, posting those seminars on youtube/google, selling DVDs, books, subscriptions to website, newsletters, message boards and even cable tv is getting in on it.
To me this is significant.
Once this becomes mainstream public knowledge (next year...?), probably led by the born-again, moral majority types--and with the markets grinding everyones networth down to nothing--without money all you have left is your spirituality.
...its "probably" bullshit, but I see a trade in it.
Gerald Celente on the Financial Sense Newshour - 2/7/09 pt1/2
K...you can tell I've been away for awhile...I hadn't realised that you're now running a broad based hedge fund(?). I normally just hold cash when I'm defensive (with no apparent trend), and short the indices when the trend becomes strong enough to breed confidence. At the moment, my style is to keep it simple, it really boils down to shorting the S&P500, long various mid-cap gold stocks/short the index when bearish, same goes for energy, long certain stocks, short the indices (when bearish). But a long laundry list of stocks from various sectors is ruinous for the type of manager that I am--I find that I can outperform the markets just by playing the markets, no confusion there.
Thoughts on physical gold...
--HUI vs gold chart shows that gold, once again, is outperforming the mining stocks...that said, trading the indices that have gold leverage isn't a bad way to go (x2 funds are great)--hence my fascination with the Betapro group.
Esoteric 2012 material.
David Wilcock interview on Coast To Coast
Part 1 of 7
OT///--an advocate for legalization?
yup, if only to end police corruption.
The Grow Show with Marijuana Man - Cops Selling Prohibition [video]
Marc Faber Ignore Rating Agencies [video]
GLD - T/A commentary:
•• Baltic Dry Index {BDI} thru Feb 6th ••
#msg-35420064
•• CoT Data Charts thru Feb 6th ••
#msg-35420113
On this next chart--you'll see that even if the S&P500 takes a massive shit on Monday--gold has been disconnected from the broad markets--what this says is that gold is the only game in town--if you insist on running a long only portfolio.
K...to answer you both publicly and privately-I want to make one thing clear, I'm a permabear. I reckon that in the next 2-years the markets will grind down to zero. I'll even go on the record and say that this board is going to be more about gardening then about the stock market--I believe that capitalism is finished.
...and as far as I can tell by the market action, specifically the S&P500, is horrendous - see #msg-35268155
...so about gold - "short-term" on an hourly - let's look at XGD (stock index)
OT /// yeah, Tom Boonen is a superstar, in Europe his name is just as big as Lance Armstrong.
...as for myself, I used to race with the aspirations of turning professional. Unfortunately, I was having health problems at the time (more than twenty years ago)--things like losing my eyesight under full exertion--so after a few medical tests, the doctors gave me a diagnosis of Multiple Sclerosis.
...and my competitive ambitions ended right there.
That said, with a proper diet supplemented by a large herb garden, I still manage to ride 10,000km (6600 miles) per year.
-- no wheelchair for this guy.
as for traveling, it's rare that I leave the province of Alberta, and when I do its usually to visit friends on Vancouver Island.
France...?
I'm French Canadian, I would love to ride France...I would love to ride up L'Alp-d'Huez, I dream about it even.
To ride in France, I would probably book a tour through some of the ex professional riders, some of these guys start tour companies, and some of them even offer tours based on the person abilities. The biggy here is that you get to see the roads of the legendary races.
The two that come to mind are:
Andy Hampsten
http://www.hampsten.com/
and here in Canada
Steve Bauer
http://www.stevebauer.com/
XGD - up by more than 2% in the first 1/2 hour of the trading day.
I'd say this is a significant break-out - but the timing is wrong, there should be some selling here because we're going into the weekend. Whenever we have such a positive week, I always expect that Friday becomes a great excuse to profit take.
...so I wouldn't chase it here.