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JW... Hi there, it's been awhile.
well... My initial question was seasonality, simply because of the difficulty in trading this market...I feel the same pressures as you do.
------- beware commentary below:
My guess on direction, that since the US government and the Fortune 500 have officially merged (and accepted by the financial communities) we could see a broad market rally that could take us into September - energy may be the best place for us Canadians to make back all of the money that has been taken away from us - long C$ is another great idea.
Both SnP and the energy sectors are moving in lock step - but according to Marc Faber this countertrend rally is a response to massive $ devaluation.
whoa...!
by the pullback...?
you have the CCI indicator sitting damned near at 300 - I would say that's an amazing break-out...!
How I would play it...?
I'm long energy as it is... a move like this tells me we could push through $60 barrel oil - yes, yes, yes... buy the pullback, possibly Monday morning - this kind of a move will make the papers, so I expect follow through tomorrow.
I like my energy position even better now.
thanks (I think)
IAC: are you betting that "seasonality" is back...?
I wondering because gold shouldn't be acting this well at this time of the year - is that why you're "too biased FA wise?"
I also noticed that you're bullish on energy, same reason - "seasonality?"
That said, I really hate the way the market is acting - you pretty much have to role the dice on the day before (last hour of the previous trading day), knowing full well that the markets could gap up or down given whatever mood swing develops overnight.
K...the only thing certain with gold is the volatility...incredible...!
Quite a turnaround in all things gold.
HEU.TO (energy ETF) check out the hourly chart - possible pivot point - just tip-toed my way in.
the size of my portfolio is approximately 10% of my networth
...and I basically swing the whole works at once (all it takes is 1 or 2 trades to be all in), that's why I've decided just to trade the indices.
K...there's nothing passive about 5% return every month - 60% return per year...?
Actually, what I'm trying to do is NOT burn myself out...so whenever I make out like a bandit - I take a break.
K...what I've noticed here is that both Fridays and Mondays aren't something to be feared anymore (?) so I'm guessing the SnP will run for awhile - I see a bit of a pullback tomorrow but nothing I would short...it isn't that overbought, at least not yet, not even on the hourlies.
Big winner today had to be the drilling index - OMG...!!!
So much for taking some time away from the markets - I'm sitting here at 100% cash - completely missed today's move - so I've been thinking... a good time to venture back in would be April the 1st.
seems fitting.
...as for gold, I would love to see a 100% retracement of the last move...maybe that's where I'll look.
Nevertheless - my goal was to have a specific portfolio size and have the darn thing pay me a return of 5% a month ... I did way better than that this month, which is why I'm not sweating my cash position.
what a day - the US economy is "toxic" and the SnP is going to close up by 6%...?
we live in a bizarro world, don't we...?
...so say we all...
trading gold ain't for the timid...
let me tellya...!
ah... no, I haven't a clue what the US ETF would be ... nevertheless, at the time I mentioned it, it was up more than 20% - not unexpected with a 2x NG fund.
fwiw, we have a buying frenzie...which essentially puts me out of the market until things settle down a bit...my lesson here is to wait until the charts are perfect again...I don't want to put myself through that whole gold debacle I"ve been suffering through since last Thursday...it's nice to be overweight cash, and I intend on staying that way - today, tomorrow and Monday morning.
...just plug-in HNU.TO on your quote screen...
I might have missed that one...
thanks...
I just sold half my position - and now it just took off again.
wow...!
"I'd rather deal w/deflation personally."
That's what I thought the deal was - on my return I was targeting ZERO for the whole market - I'm so bearish that I was speculating that I wouldn't even have the opportunity to cover my short position because the NYSE would be permanently closed.
...and here I am long...at least for now <g>
nuts...?
hahaha
I was typing an email to someone (geez I wonder who?) had my browser minimised so I wouldn't suffer through the pain of a losing position.
crazy... and I'm sitting long with a 2x fund.
like I was saying, a really bad day, turned terrific.
...just catching up now...300 billion in bonds, eh...?
doesn't sound like much <g> I'm used to "trillions."
I see they tanked the $US also, what a day...
we'll soon see what the close indicates...but my intuition says LONG
...and getting a mediocre price/position is just fine, the risk imho is being left out - if we get follow through tomorrow, you'll quickly forget the price.
Well, I'm long... I even added to a losing position because I was so sure...I've got plenty of gold leverage at the moment. That said, what was turning out to be a very bleak day turned into a very positive one.
I'm not touching anything - long gold, long SnP.
we were down by more than 3% - I look up and we're +2% on the day, all in a 5 minute period - I was thinking about selling it because, "poof" I'm holding a profit after tolerating what looked like a devastating loss.
I have no idea what to do.
hey...!
didn't I call it...?????
I'm soooo cool.
NOT
okay, who's fucking with my quote screen...?
gold is up...?
It just occured to me that if I keep reading your posts - It'll transform me into a troll.
I'm deleting the bookmark - and sorry to the regulars on the thread.
Using "sin" as man's problem is meaningless in this context - because there is no such thing as "original sin," certainly not in the bible. The word I'm thinking of is SELFISHNESS, that would have been more appropriate.
IAC: if I would have stopped myself out of my PM posirtion first thing this morning, I too would have had a great day.
Note the volume bar and the bounce off the BB centreline...I was already bullish because I liked the daily, so it wasn't hard to buy the pivot point once I seen it in place.
in regards to the gold stock index - I would say there's another 5 to 7% to come off the index - or maybe what I'm saying is that I'll tolerate another 5-7% before stopping myself out.
I'd love to see it rally here - simply because I fucking hate being wrong.
...but that's life.
ouch...!
but then I've been holding a long position in gold since last Friday.
ouch is also directed at yours truly.
K...you should be more worried about Nikki on "Big Love" than the Nikkei - go skiing, will you....!!!!
potential "hollow red candlestick" close on both the GLD and the XGD - not always a great reason to buy if you look at how many times "hollow reds" have failed in the past couple of months - but worth noting.
WOW...!!!
The markets are in the red - erasing what looked to be another great day...!
-- gold anyone...?
I noticed on other boards, yeah I read a couple others... the traders don't like gold stocks here, lazy, sick, boring...?
I think not...
although we're not quite into the green, the action is good, all things considered.
XGD: HOURLY
35-minutes past the hour - let us see what the XGD has to offer.
-- financials have gotten ahead of themselves --
I'm thinking the health of the financials are directly correlated to the health of the mining companies...I'm thinking some of the crappy gold miners, the leverage to debt slaves, might just start screaming for freedom.
sorry, piss poor analogy - but I think you catch the drift.
Has anyone noticed that gold stocks are now reacting first over bullion...?
Could our banking problems in regards to the natural resource sector finally be over...? -- meaning, equities will radically outperform bullion...?
...just a thought...
What occurred to me this morning is the strength of the market. What I've been witnessing in the previous sell-off was incredible weakness on both Fridays and Mondays - what we're seeing now is just the opposite.
I could see the markets selling off slightly tomorrow, because without a doubt we're short term overbought (on the hourly charts), we're not overbought on the daily, so yeah... this puppy can run for a little longer.
Not a short, not a buy either, it's a hold...until the next buying opportunity.
jmho.
Gold Stock Index: I find it funny how we can be strong into the last couple of minutes of an hour--and be weak the first couple of minutes of a new hour.
I'd say watch this thing after the first half hour - if we start building strength into the close of this hour, I think we'll see a strong close at the end of the day.
...just a gut feeling...