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...about NG
I'm actually starting to think that we should approach this sector as "investors." I mean really, do you think that $3.25 per unit of NG is sustainable...? Either oil is grossly overbought, or NG is grossly oversold.
I guess one way top play it is with drilling stocks - but... I'm expecting 8 to 10% off this index too.
yeah, I figured you'd notice...
anyway... you're tempted to go long? When IMHO the markets look rather exhausted. My wild ass guess going forwards, and probably starting tomorrow is a mild correction - possibly as much as 10% - the kind of correction that's mild and somewhat a tell of how bullish the markets will be for the next couple of months...so yeah, buy the pullback.
...as for gold - gold stocks suck horribly, it's like goldbugs have left the sector to play bank stocks - but the physical is where the better bet is and will be as long as there's a gap between the $GOLD and XGD.TO - I'm still long the index only because of the chart on the physical is so nice...and it's working inversely to the US$ as it should - so if it continues to rise, I'll buy one of the funds that tracks bullion.
- note: as of the time of this post $GOLD has yet to be updated to todays date.
US$ down 2% against the Swiss Franc, down 1.5% against the euro, down 0.7% against the C$
KBE up 28% in 2 days - gotta luv free markets.
Fed makes biggest agency debt purchase to date.
NEW YORK, April 13 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve
bought $5.15 billion of Fannie Mae <FNM.P>, Freddie Mac <FRE.P>
and the Federal Home Loan Bank's debt on Monday, the New York
Federal Reserve said, in its biggest purchase of agency debt to
date.
Dealers submitted $7.93 billion for consideration in the
Fed's purchase of debt maturing between April 2010 and March
2011.
The Fed has so far bought roughly $60 billion of agency
notes, of the up to $200 billion it said it would purchase by
the end of the year as part of efforts to lower borrowing
costs.
For more details on the operation please click on:
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/pomo/display/index.cfm
(Reporting by Kristina Cooke and Lynn Adler; Editing by James
Dalgleish)
If my portfolio doesn't bounce on Monday - then I'll liquidate....until then;
Have a good long weekend.......!!!
20%
love it.
19%....?
...and KBE is being bought right into the close...
smells like a bull trap - but then I'm long in an opposing sector that's doing the reverse.
I smell wishful thinking... <g>
wow...!
KBE up 18.5%
the action on KBE is reminiscent to the gold action on April's fool day - will it finish on a high and suck the bulls in for the slaughter as the banks report earnings next week...?
...and how will this affect the currency markets...?
...and is this why that both gold and silver haven't sold off here today...?
KBE up 17% after breaking support yesterday - I just noticed that I'm suffering from a headache....shesssshhhhh....!
In a crazy kind of way - this is massively entertaining.
looking at a 6-month chart of gold you'd think we're headed back to $680 - looking at a 2-year chart you'd see a giant reverse HnS pattern which suggests $2000 gold by the end of the year.
IAC - 3 things really... 1) possible double bottom on the EUR/USD 2) KBE broke support yesterday 3) I like the symmetry of the hourly charts on both gold and gold stocks...so obviously that was the wrong move because what I sold is WAY up and what I bought is down, but not WAY down...although I haven't reversed my positions just yet - it does hurt like a MF seeing everything move up so strongly.
That said, I primarily lay the blame on the KBE index for what has happened to me here today...I now see that the surprises are to the upside.
Fwiw, I'm still long PMs because I still think I'm right (???) - but then again it's easy enough to stop loss this little endeavor.
Btw, look at the hourly on the GLD and tell me that doesn't look bullish and the 200-day MA on the daily is apparently (?) support...unfortunately the gold stock index is reflecting the bullishness of the broad markets.
I might be nuts, but I just took the gold sector long - don't forget; for every good call I make, I have the habit of making a bad one.
2 things - G.M. bk and some of the stories hitting the wire about the insolvency of insurance companies.
Check this out:
Insurance Companies - The Next Shoe to Drop?
http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/forecasts_trends/archive/2009/04/07/insurance-companies-the-next-shoe-to-drop.aspx
so even if I'm wrong, I suspect my loses will be temporary.
KBE breaking down. <eom>
tepid, yes... no kiddin, USO up more than 4% - energy index 1.5%
my WAG, without going against what IAC was just saying - start looking at HGU.TO - EUR/USD is looking somewhat bullish (double bottom - highlighted by 2 dojis). I'll also add that the tepid behaviour of the general markets suggest another down day tomorrow...and the gold sector may be hammering in a new pivot point.
We shall see...
But now what...?
I need to see what the charts say towards the close...
that said, I hope I'm not running your portfolio - kinda like remote control - you do realise that I'm completely insane...?!? <g>
K...I'll say it again; the worst part about the "AM" is the damned gap - it doesn't seem to matter what direction the market takes, it gaps at the morning and remains flat throughout the day.
here's a great example on the energy fund - note that the rectangle highlights the gap, where it also becomes resistance.
I think it's going to be buy the bad news after inventories tomorrow - that said, I need a pattern, a good one before I start getting excited, and besides we're going to close below my 9-day MA (my safety mechanism)...unless we see something very cool around 20 minutes before the close...we're up now, but it's too soon.
yes the volume is somewhat light - but if you're not watching in RT then you missed it - it shot up to $29.50 and it's been selling off ever since - like quickly.
yup, shit day all around + inventories tomorrow...we could see that elusive pivot-point in the energy sector after the anticipated "bad news."
well... ugh... scratch that thought - USO is mighty volatile - down again.
But I do have a sneaky suspicion that I'm going to be yelling "break-out" somewhere around here, hopefully it doesn't have to test the 50-day MA.
...uso...?
...recovering...??
...pivot point....???
George Soros on Stocks, Gold, and The US Dollar
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/george-soros-on-stocks-gold/
Dr. Doom was Right Again
Anthony Cherniawski, Manager of The Practical Investor, LLC explains the importance of the 50-day moving average as it relates to the S&P 500 Index ability to achieve new highs. The question, "how long might the rally last?" may find an answer in this video.
$800, sure why not...?
It may take $800 gold to finally see the indices in sync - for now I'm sitting on my proverbial hands....or if you're an excellent trader; look to the short side and short whatever relief rallies that appear over the next couple of weeks.
I suppose this thing will flatten out by August where traditionally you could start buying again, in a seasonal kind of way.
...but again, these are interesting times we live in.
IAC ... fwiw, I'm holding nothing but CASH....CASHED up yesterday towards the close.
...as for buying gold stocks...?
I would need XGD and gold to be more in sync with one another - once that happens I'll start looking for a pivot point before buying.
K...yes, the PRO is an actual trading platform with direct access - I'm using the lesser platform of the two (web based java app) - but I'll say this there isn't a moment in the day that I wished for direct access because the simple trading desk feels so real - I can taste the fear even though it's steaming through their main feed - it's almost the real deal that's how direct it feels, in fact, when you buy or sell "at market" (if the liquidity is there) it happens instantaneously.
IMHO, don't concern yourself with PRO if all you're going to do is trade Canadian and US stocks - I'm setup with both US$ and C$ accounts, but no short account because I trade the bear funds instead.
K... depth isn't reliable, not because of the platform but because the brokerage houses have gamed the system - things like bid stacking and posting trades "anonymously" effectively eliminated this tool from my toolbox.
- and do you really need to send me into a rant over the "decent news" comment you made...?
That said, the switch from etrade to itrade didn't change what I think is already a top notch service - so give it a go!
Btw, on the platform services - I ran a very simple Linux set-up for years and it ran flawlessly until I fried the MBoard - I now run it on my HP laptop (vista) now and again but I mostly use Stockcharts on my iMac which IMO is my favorite set-up.
By default I have both the market trader and the trading desk options - "Pro" means that you're trading more than 150 times per quarter...which IMHO means you're reacting to the "matrix" as opposed to speculating within it...which means you'll eventually trade yourself into the poorhouse with the "Pro" option.
excuse me while I pinch myself
this is a dream right...?
gold stocks...amazingly strong...put in new highs of the day right at the close...very strong...and here's hoping that the bulls that were buying at the close aren't sobered up at the open tomorrow since today is April Fools Day.
That said,
If I were long, I'd let the market stop me out - and if this is for real; I'll be buying the pullback.
K...I'm trying to understand the move in the PM sector...on the chart below, we went from a HnS top, and it stretched out to become a double-top - but if that wasn't bearish enough it decides to break out again today without a corresponding move in the bullion, silver or gold for that matter.
Are the stocks leading to something that I'm really going to hate to miss...?
fwiw, I don't like the pattern. I don't like the ADX - no trend strength - it signals a sideways market. But I do like the OBV, accumulation is what's leading this stealthiness in the charts.
Anthony Cherniawski, Manager of The Practical Investor, LLC discusses the latest pullback in the rally and what it means for investors. Due care should be taken, since the risk of a substantial pullback is high.
agreed...I was thinking the same thing just a few minutes ago when I was trying to decide what to do with my energy position. It really became a question of "when" will I buy more than should I be cautious and sell.
Quadruple Confirmed Evil Knievel Formation
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/quadruple-confirmed-evil-knievel-formation/
...about self destructive hubris
yeah... which is why I use these threads to keep me honest - it also helps in keeping me focused.
FWIW: When I look at a chart I make damned sure that I'm aware of my eyelashes and the tip of my nose. If you're not focused in that way, then say these magic words 5-times in a row: -- "my concentration is perfect" --
If you're not aware, it means your far far off on another world, playing another stock market where the caviar, the champagne and the women are cheap - when it's this truly expensive world you should be focused on.
...so maybe pride wasn't your only problem.
IAC:...just trying to understand what was primarely driving your views - as for me, whenever I get the idea of what's driving the market, I'll run with it until it hits me right back in the arse.
Anyway... I'm thinking what were seeing here today and probably Monday/Tuesday is end of the quarter clean-up...I'm still long energy, but it's not a full position - it will be later next week if the trend lines remain supportive.
Marc Faber Says US Stock Rally May Have More Legs 24 March 2009