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another reason to be cautious on oil - the CCI indicator on the C$ chart rarely if ever exceeds 200 without a correction.
problem: Am I too much of a contrarian.............?
...after listening to the first hour of Coast To Coast (AM) this morning, some analyst was calling for $250 oil due to the possible Iran/Israel conflict, and possible Taliban control over nuclear Pakistan....and not because of renewed demand--we're in a depression.....????
...and I though fuck that, time to sell.
I guess it depends on which one...
I just took profit on the crude etf, after I said I wouldn't but here I am full of cash (among other things), probably not much more than a week later; I was up 20% - reason? - the $C/markets are short term "overbought" a breather is in order.
Btw, take a look at the hourly on the HQU.TO index fund - it's like the Naz is going to turn back up here before the close....but it too is ST overbought, OTOH it's trending very strongly and could keep an oscillator like a CCI overbought for a long time - note that the RSI is finally showing some strength since bottoming out at the end of last October.
Gartman - Proper Labeling Of Swine Flu - Bloomberg
K.Co - I forgot that it's Friday.....!!!
so have a great weekend my friend.....!!!
everyone else too...
later
Hey Frank....!!!
are you still long crude, and what about gold...?
Great question Frank, and btw you look marvelous...!
so yes, I'm long crude - a bit of a break-out today - pierced the SAR and it did it with good volume - we could see a wee pullback Monday morning but I'm long until it becomes painfully obvious that we're in the overbought category on at least 2 indicators and a violation of a MA.
Gold on the otoh has a lousy looking hourly chart, and the daily shows quite a bit of indecision. It's littered with hollow red candle sticks - which says massive panic selling at the open follow up by rational buying during the day.
You can draw several conclusions from this; 1) traders lack confidence in this metal and are willingly shitting their pants before the open 2) we all know that if that hollow red candlestick fails it's a race to the bottom. 3) smart money is accumulating later in the day which is bullish (maybe).
I would wait to see if the hollow red fails before going short, and the same goes for going long - wait for a proper break out.
K... IMHO, there's only one index that really, truly matters and that's KBE - seems to me that it dictates the direction of both oil and gold. Fwiw, the meme that I have floating through my brain at the moment is; to stay long until it becomes painfully obvious that we've topped.
anyway....
...we're trending, so follow the trend lines.
ouch.........!
Marc Faber The FED will continue Printing Money
Eva ... dunno, I used to have her email address, don't anymore ... I'm thinking she took my lead and decided to preserve capital by disappearing from these boards a couple of years ago.
anyway... I'm not surprised with the up day in the markets and I'm also seeing that NG is finally in the green, so is the XNG index - I thinking that USO should follow along shortly.
Btw, Alberta just announced 2 cases of flu.
K...yes, that's her name on SI - you have a great memory...!
IAC . . . since you have no position in energy I'll say this:
The C$ is one currency that's not being clobbered.
CADUSD -.8%
EURUSD -1.6
CHFUSD -1.4%
does this mean the inflow of foreign capital into the C$ as well as the US$...?
if that's the case, then energy should remain a good deal as it will move with the market. We could see a bounce upward as soon as tomorrow.
Note the high volume trading in NG.
fwiw, I'm still long the crude ETF, stopped out of NG last Monday.
anyway, I'm outta here - I also have housework........:)
SEX . . . I never know how to respond to your posts - your quite a challenge. :)
Nanotechnology..............??? -- there won't be a renaissance unless the Federal Reserve/military industrial complex is finally put to rest . . . it's the politics of fear that keeps us in this box and it doesn't matter what the box is made of - bronze, iron, plastic, silicon, bird flu or even nano particles.
...just history repeating itself over and over and over again.
Eva ... stick around, there's too many guys on this thread as it is - in fact you wouldn't happen to know a poster by the name of "Chary" she used to post here regularly - I think she also goes by the name of; something blond, or temporarily blond or not quite blond- something like that...???
IAC . . . I'm still around, too much to chat about - and I can't think of a better place to anonymously vent my spleen for all to see.
so yeah, I'm NOT going to quit, but I am on holidays this summer.
...and I'll even be courteous enough to stay in touch while we're gone since most modern coffee shops have wireless assess.
GB ... I'm not going to totally quit - this bird/pig/human/laboratory flu has me watching the market again . . . and the situation in Mexico has me thinking that:
1) did someone try to assassinate Obama?
2) did Mexico release the virus as their own 9/11 to maintain a military presence throughout the country?
3) an attempt by the government to replicate the market action of 1918 where the stock market broke out and went ballistic for 10-years as the biggest flu virus ever known to man wiped out 100 million people around the world...?
Well... by the market action and the way that the US$ just took off, I'm betting that "they" found a great way to raise the GDP of the country.
Howz that for my first post back...?
K...I'm quitting.
Anyway, I sat here for what? Four months and I've have nothing to show for it.
I'm winding it all down, and by Friday I should be completely out of the market.
...for good.
There's so many other things I'd rather do then living in this shithole city spending all my time in my fucking office cursing at a fucking computer screen eight fucking hours per day. For one - riding my bike, getting myself fit and then spending the summer on Vancouver Island watching my heart rate zoom between 80 and 180 bpm and maybe even participate in a few races.
By the way, my wife has finally given me the freedom of leave Edmonton (as long as I take her with me) this past weekend.
...and do a little bit of real-estate shopping while I'm there in Victoria...possibly rent something because prices in Western Canada have yet to collapse.
...and you...?
any super cheap r-e deals in your end of the country...?
I'm thinking cottage country, like, I don't have any need to live in the city although my wife isn't crazy about moving to Southern Ontario it's still better than here...maybe Quebec...? I actually don't give a shit where I live, but Vancouver Island is like a "zone 11" and I love gardening.
I'll be around tomorrow afternoon.
later
Michael.
Yes, John - it's Friday, tomorrow is Saturday followed by Sunday . . . which means;
HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND..............!!!!!!!!!!!!
I'm outta here...
I'm going to maintain both my positions HNU and HOU (2/3) - and there's still 1/3 of my portfolio in cash - if HAU wasn't so illiquid I'd be in that one too.
...then life must be good...?
The more KBE rises the harder the PM indices get hit.
GOLD/SILVER - I'm thinking that it's a question of liquidity when it comes to silver outperforming gold here to the downside. I'm also thinking that shorting physical gold would make more sense presently due to the god awful way the PM stock indices have performed over the past week. But, when the turn comes it's the PM stock indices that will shine since gold itself has hardly been touched (comparatively) through this sell off.
...just added HOU.TO - a hot streak...?
K...I actually thought it would bounce, but after the first half hour - nada - that was enough for me.
Btw, both the XNG and OIH are still incredibly strong - which is why I started buying HNU.TO - enjoying a nice pop at the moment.
K...I'm stopped out (finally) of gold and I bought HNU.TO
...as for the gold sector, yup, we bounce tomorrow.
OIH - XNG - are a match
HNU.TO - $NATGAS - are a match
...but why don't the two sets match one another...?
K...I absolutely despise junior stocks - I have a list of them set-up on myYahoo page. I started the watchlist when most of the juniors were already down 60% from their highs. My pretend investment got wiped out by 90% and ironically they've only recovered about 5% of that. Stocks that were trading at $5 are now at the penny level with no liquidity.
So why would we speculate there first...?
...anyway... just noticed that gold is collapsing bigtime - starting to wonder if I should wait until tomorrow to stop myself out.
K...I'm officially down 12.5% - tomorrow is Friday, I expect some short covering to work my way out of this deal.
- but if everyone you know of is bullish on gold - then yours truly better stand aside.
how about: HAU.TO and HNU.TO......?
...because according to the chart below - the rise in the US$ has only begun and things are looking mighty fine.
you mean they're measuring this by weight...?
WOW
short it AFTER tomorrow - gimme a chance to get out of the way...!
lol....!!!
K...right now I'm marveling at the thought that Lance Armstrong's team "Astana" is apparently tits-up . . . they haven't paid their employees in over a month, yet they have the strongest stage racing team assembled in the history of the sport.
...and they can't make a go of it...
oouooff (that's about how articulate I am at the moment)
oh, I don't know...I'm sitting here watching gold down 1% and the gold stock index down 4% . . . the only reason why I'm still holding is because we're still above the 200-day MA - and tomorrow is Friday.
My position in HGU is now down a whopping 12% since my bright (or not so bright) idea of a snap back up to previous highs.
My view of "long term" is tomorrow - so I haven't got a clue about this summer - that would be like asking me if there's life on Mars.
...so what I have learn from this little episode of drama that I call my life...?
patience... there was and is no need to be in a hurry.
K...yes, as long as gold holds steady, if not...?
then we could see the index cut in half - and gold @ $680
HGU.TO - this is my speculation (see chart below) using the vol/price indicator I'm speculating that some catalyst from out of nowhere will push the price back up to the next big congestion area - a possible 40 to 50% gain is dangling in the back of my mind which is why I've been holding so patiently, but a breach below support and I'm out.
yup, it did .16%
the SPX was freaky - one of those flagpoles - 1.5% up in one shot.
My gut refuses to answer me...
...so as long as HGU.TO is trading above $10 I guess I shouldn't complain and wait for the break-out or break-down and adjust accordingly.
but it's been a long week holding this crap without anything to show for it.
K...what's your gut telling you on gold...?
I'm almost at the point of stopping myself out.
Anthony Cherniawski discusses an interesting technical pattern in gold. What are its implications?
...and one other thing that has NOT been mentioned anywhere on these boards:
- real-estate prices in Edmonton are only off by 10% from their highs -
...so you have to assume that the "speculation" of the return to $150 crude is still out there in the tar pits.