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well, you know-- tomorrow could very well be a short covering day.
you never know until it happens-- I'll be more comfortable with this tomorrow afternoon.
ohh, I dunno-- I'm bullish on the damned $US -- and the daily charts of commodity related stocks (ETFs) look broken to me.
we shall see.
USO down over 3%
WOW...!
new comments from cyclocosm
http://cyclocosm.com/
Lab admits to 'typing error'
http://www.velonews.com/race/int/articles/11202.0.html
actually, I'm still riding except for today-- there's w-a-y too much snow -- have you seen all that flooding on the West coast in the news? Here in this town it isn't water falling from the sky.
Hopefully, I'll be out tomorrow.
it doesn't hurt to drop your name and address down there on a piece of paper on the off chance someone steals your bike and you get the chance to prove it's yours.
you know-- I hadn't thought of doing that...!
ohh, about the gadgets-- when I'm on holidays my wife goes off on her own with the car while I ride my bike through a mountain pass or something-- my biggest problem is her finding me again.
She always underestimates the distances I can travel, so then my location is always something of a mystery to her.
maybe a two-way radio...?
it would be neat if she could watch my location through GPS
yeah, I recommend Coke too if gatoraid isn't available-- the trick is to drink a lot of it immediatly after a ride. Believe it or not it dramatically helps recovery ... as for diets-- I lean heavily on "The Zone Diet." For supplements, I use something called Nitro T3 (inhances testosterone, blocks estrogene), ester-C and vitamine D-- I've also experimented with creatin, but to be honest, I can't tell the difference.
I have a few other things I might try come spring-- but I'm feeling pretty strong right now as it is-- so I'm thinking I should focus more on the 15 extra pound I'm carrying around.
What else...?
uhh, drink plenty of water, but not too much-- enough so that your pee is clear ... never start a ride unless you're fully hydrated.
...about the twenty minutes in-- I'm the same way. I start the ride feeling old and tired and badly busted, gray and winkled and can't be trusted-- just a dirty old... oh, never mind.
Presently you'd have to look real hard to find a bike that didn't have a carbon fork. A full carbon fork (crown and steerer) is miraculously lighter than a steel fork-- and stronger to boot.
I'm pretty sure that there isn't any major frame builder today supplying steel forks.
and in my humble opinion, the fork makes very little difference in ride quality, the two areas that do matter; are the top-tube and the down-tube of the the main triangle.
--frame builders rule of thumb; thickness of the metal determines strength - diameter of the tubing determines ride quality.
below is a pic of my steel road bike with carbon fork-- and I had the stays chromed because I thought it would be retro funny ... it turn out to be retro cool. I get a lot of compliments because the bike looks so alive compared to all the dull looking carbon everyone else is riding nowadays.
I started riding again at 41 (again...?), the goal was to bring my weight down from 205lbs to something less piglike-- 45 minutes a day.
last year, my rides were extended to 1-1/2hrs
this year, 3hrs
...and now I weigh 175lbs (racing weight: 160lbs)
now I ride to recover, recover to ride--- I hate to say it, it's become a science ... gatoraid, energy bars, carefully balancing the protein/carbs ratio in my diet.
imagaine how intense I'd be if I had a racing license...???
It's actually an amazing hobby-- combination of torture, recovery and science mixed in with some really cool toys.
...about that power meater (Freudian slip) I'd really like one of those things, along with that GPS unit I have my eyes on.
<vbg>
just paging through some charts, and I see you're doing well with HL-- nice going....and like I was saying last Sunday #msg-14725548 it's almost time to start buying commodities again.
my answer is-- I don't know.
I've had a lot of positive testimonials about the campy shifting and the solid reliability of their products. Actually, the testimonials are so positive that they almost verge on the supernatural-- kinda like Tom Cruise pumping scientology.
You have to believe in Campy-- it's very cultish.
I had two situations last year that turned me somewhat negative towards Record-- 1) I test road a ti Marinoni with Record-- the bike shop is located at the top of a hill-- my first impression of the rear derailleur shifting was that it felt clunky, like the old Suntour XC Pro stuff I had on my MTB about 15 years ago. The shifting under power wasn't smooth like Shimano.
The front derailleur performance-- is another story altogether, It's stiff and it takes about 3 cranks of the lever to move the chain from small ring to big, unacceptable if you're riding a cyclocross bike on rough terrain. You're forever shifting from large to small and back again-- and your hands are tired from the pounding of a long rough ride, so the stiffness is unacceptable.
2) I had me wife test ride a Centaur equipped bike, she couldn't shift it whatsoever-- yet she's perfectly happy with the Ultegra bike I bought her after the ill faited test ride.
That said,
It was only a test ride-- I've never lived with the stuff ... and I've been assured that once I do-- I'll wonder why I never had the stuff in the first place.
The T/A is bad, no sign of a bottom-- didn't help that NG was down 4% today-- but I was expecting something that generally resembled Fording Coal-- massive washout followed by light distribution with the occasional rally.
CNE/UN not unlike FDG/UN has had 6 negative days in a row (if you count the black candle)-- the odds of a bounce have increased substantially-- it's rare to see more than 6 down days in a row and you have to look real hard to find 8 or more. Look for a quick jump back up to $16 (9-day MA) but it's only a buy after another blow-off.
...and it's really close to blowing off again.
...and this is for a trade, nothing else-- okay...!
On a more positive note-- good strength in VLO, this bodes well for both oil, gasoline and yes, NG (both are purchased at the consumer level) and CHK traded well today too.
fwiw, I bot BVX.TO towards the close-- still very bullish on energy.
Probably too bullish for my own good. <vbg>
hint of desire
yeah, but it was still Dura Ace rather than the more expensive Record.
Was Dines' day dawning? Looks like it
Commentary: "Original Goldbug" has impressively reinvented himself
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B70C125F6%2DD92D%2D4890%2DB202%2D79AA2BD1F9C...
HL looks good-- if it closes at this level or better you've got a good bet.
yes, the US$ is confirming a bottom here today
I'm not a big believer in drawing a lot of lines-- and then turning them into absolutes...there's an old traders' rule that says before any large move, the market takes out the stops.
your currency chart is the most interesting-- the euro (and the swissy) imho topped out on Friday-- the US dollar imho bottomed on Friday...so if gold were to move up substantially from here-- it would be doing so without the other commodities in tow, and doing it against all other currencies.
now that would be bullish, if it were to happen.
technicals...
I have no other reason to offer why I can be bullish one day, and bearish the next.
I don't even have the tv on.
-- look at the hourlies, then the dailies-- you'll quickly surmise that if we go lower, it won't be by much.
What's with the black?!
I dunno-- fwiw I dress like that too.
I even own a white helmet...!!!
the correction is done <in oil>
photo of Ullrich training from home-- it's interesting to see what a world class athelete trains on when he has to buy the stuff himself.
from the photo, it's hard to see the brand of bike, but I can positively identify Dura Ace components.
big volume cross on XGD-- big enough to stop the drop right in its tracks
you've had it for a while, going by the cranks, 9 spd...?
nice classic bike.
yeah, no kidding-- even though the Disco paintjob is shared on some of their cheap consumer bikes it's still better than what happened to Davitamon-Lotto-- which is now Predictor-Lotto.
The main color will be the salmon pink tint that is used for the packaging of the best known product in the Predictor range, the pregnancy test kit," according to the team's website.
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news.php?id=news/2006/nov06/nov08news
another Basso Disco shot-- note that the kit is too big, the bike too small.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/soxiam/294886729/
My reasons for looking elsewhere, at other sectors, happens when I can't stomach the volatility of where I normally hang out-- it's a safety switch as to not blow myself up.
while you're at it, check out KLIC, KLAC and WFR
Anyway, the Almanac says that next week is normally a bullish period before option expiration day (Friday)-- if there really is a ST top in energy-- it should bode well for the markets.
...and speaking of volatility
CUX.TO, an international gas play was just taken out ... hopefully that adds strength to that group, specifically FCP.TO
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh03998_2006-11-12_12-41-34_l12...
note on the chart below, how FCP held the 20-day MA-- it got pasted on Wednesday, hammered on Thursday and settled on Friday-- CRB somewhat resembles FCP, which suggests weakness on Monday, a hammer on Tuesday and hopefully a buying opp on Wednesday.
an Italian superstar on a Trek-- yuk...!
Basso sure is thin-- the kit doesn't even fit properly.
Homebuilders
MSFT
longer term look at INTC
cup and handle...?
Energy Hedge Fund Bites The Dust
http://www.forbes.com/business/2006/11/10/ritchie-hedge-fund-shutters-biz-cx_1110ritchie.html
INTC -- bullish going into next week...?
note the support at the 50-day MA
K... I almost hate to admit this-- but I'm completely out.
have been for about a week.
you're right, bubbly to say the least.
nevertheless-- the no denying that NG is in a strong uptrend-- otoh, there's no denying that the market for NG levered juniors has dried up since the trust debacle.
Big name like Chesapeake did mirror the upmove (ECA lagged a little)-- both charts indicate that the ST top was put in last Thursday.
...and about crude oil.
Check out VLO-- it has the tendency to lead the PoO, nice basing pattern.
I still think we'll see a good winter for energy trading from the long side.
Over-Competitive Lance Armstrong Challenges Cancer To Rematch
http://www.theonion.com/content/node/55032?utm_source=yahoowidget_rss_1
CD ... when looking at the data, take into account that the 7 Bcf draw has happened when there's normally a build. If there's continued cold weather as the forecasts suggests, next week we'll see the 3rd week in a row of draws, when there should have been builds.
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/ngs/ngs.html
-- scroll to the bottom of the page, you'll see that storage is still at historic high levels, hence the discount in gas weighted stocks.
I also follow the rig count
http://www.bakerhughes.com/investor/rig/index.htm
ECB's Weber says oil prices may rise again
By Kevin Plumberg
NEW YORK, Nov 9 (Reuters) - Lower oil prices have improved
the outlook for economic growth and inflation in the euro zone,
but there is still a risk that energy prices will rise again,
European Central Bank Governing Council member Axel Weber said
on Thursday.
Global economic expansion is still solidly under way, but
the "gravity" of growth is shifting away from the United
States, Weber added.
Speaking in New York, Weber also said lower oil prices were
favorable for the German and U.S. economies, but that it was
too early to say if prices would stay low.
"Growth rates may be somewhat higher than they were
expected to be a few months ago, and it has produced a more
favorable inflation outlook," Weber said.
However, there is "considerable risk" that oil prices may
start rising again in the future, said Weber, who is also the
president of Germany's Bundesbank. "The likelihood of them
falling again rather than rising is much smaller," he said.
Oil futures were trading up 2 percent on Thursday at around
$61 a barrel, but were still down around 22 percent from a
record high hit in July.
Weber also said the U.S. current account deficit was a
"joint responsibility." He added that China needs a more
flexible currency, reiterating a shared view amongst Group of
Seven nations that a stronger yuan is needed to correct the
imbalance of large U.S. trade deficits and surpluses in Asia.
A week after the ECB left its refinancing rate unchanged at
3.25 percent, Weber offered no thoughts on monetary policy in
the euro zone.
On Monday, the Bundesbank president said the inflation
outlook in the 12-nation euro zone was "alarming," with
consumer price pressures set to top 2 percent in 2007 and
possibly beyond.
Most economists expect the ECB to raise interest rates
again in December to help keep a lid on inflationary pressures.
The European Commission on Monday boosted its forecast for
economic growth next year to 2.1 percent from 1.8 percent
previously.
(c) Reuters 2006. All rights reserved.
earliest draw ever in history from NG storage in the US. In Canada there's really nothing left (in storage) and winter has only just begun.
The question I have is, will NG stocks be the uranium stocks of the future...?
<vbg>
a massive overreaction today for gold-- it needed to play catch up to energy.
since they seem to take turns-- will energy continue to lead, starting tomorrow...?
yeah probably.