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GLD - new pivot point put in place this hour (on the hourly) LOWER HIGH...!
...soooo, I've sold my position in the gold stock index (HGU.TO) into the close for $12.04
Let's see what the markets gives us in opportunities tomorrow.
IAC - my guess is that gold bullion telepathic, it's looking into the future, the market otoh is running on momentum.
What I'd like to see (when looking at the Nasdaq chart) is a big day tomorrow, blow-off (on the hourly) leaving a double-top on the daily - I'd love to take the market short tomorrow afternoon.
As for me buying the gold index this morning - it was hugging the 9-day MA and I thought; why not? That's about the level of thought I gave that trade this morning.
- long the gold stock index - HGU.TO @ $11.70
Have a great weekend all...!
see y'all Tuesday - in one piece.
PEACE...I'm outta here.....!!!
I covered my energy short for a cool 4% - the only thing in my portfolio for the long weekend is gold bullion - HBU.TO
ohh, we're trading again finally - my portfolio hadn't moved for about 30-minutes.
Canadian markets have stopped trading due to a technical problem.
SPX broke down on the hourly - I did not expect that - what's next for Tuesday...?
We're touching the 20-day MA, if we don't bounce from here a drop to the 50-day is not out of the question - a drop and bounce off the 35-day MA could set-up an H&S top.
to follow up my "AHHHHHHHHH...........!" post - markets kinda flat, expecting a bull run into the close.
I stopped out of financials right at the open - went short on energy, still maintaining a long position in gold bullion.
I expect we'll finish in the green today, and into the green on Tuesday - not because I'm Kreskin, but for statistical reasons.
The Amazing Kreskin: Kreskin's Predictions for 2009
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/the-amazing-kreskin/kreskins-predictions-for_b_154531.html
K.Co...yup - did the long-weekend come early or something...? It's dropping below zero at night around these parts - my tomatoes are pissed at being carried in every night...May is not what it used to be.
futs are negative this morning - we shall see for how long.
anyway, I have a date with the Giro this morning.
later.
AHHHHHHHHH...........!
tomorrow is Friday..............!
up day for US stocks + banks
down day for drillers, crude and PMs
hopefully there's enough fear out there (because of the low volume), that at the open tomorrow we gap down (and flip a hollow red candlestick) so I can cover my bank short and go long...?
crazy market, but that's what I think we'll see.
my biggest problem with the markets in general is the distinct lack of volume - which makes an already manic market even more sensitive then what I can normally stand.
IAC - maybe I've gone totally nuts, but I just sold down my position in the gold stock index-- and now I'm short banks.
...still maintaining my position in bullion.
Nice close on the gold stock index - keep a close eye on this, maybe, just maybe we'll get a "too early in the season" break-out.
I'm off for a much deserved bike ride.
K...I don't think it moved because of hurricanes, but it could-- certainly not out of the question.
But....!!!
If the solar flare cycle ever decides to start again, and it should have restarted at the beginning of the year we could get an incredibly hot summer, without it - cold and wet is the forecast.
you mean gold...?
I'm not recommending it to anyone - in fact, I'm somewhat apprehensive about my position because 1) you're not exactly warm to the idea... 2) not in season.
fwiw, I'm following the 9-day MA and the chart pattern - a double bottom without piercing the SAR.
...and about seasonality and cycles.
again, "FWIW" in a cosmic sense, time is speeding up (I'll explain later) so are the cycles/seasonality, if gold breaks out here on decent volume then September came early, which wouldn't surprise me.
IAC - when I look at the SPX daily - it hasn't gone parabolic so I remain neutral. I see a sideways consolidation, unless "something hits the fan." I'm guessing a lot of the move from the bottom was driven by the recovery in banks - which sector will be next to fly, dunno... but it'll be the next driver that will further this rally.
Btw, I'm long gold - bought the HGU.TO index fund last week @ $11.06 and then it moved up to $11.11 as I looked up to my clock which read 11:11.
weird, eh...?
lol
thx.
especially NG scoffing at every fundamental
K...the fundamentals have more to do with the Obama administration taxing the coal fired energy producers out of existence.
have a great weekend...!
be safe.
agreed... the KBE index is somehow still putting pressure on the gold index. The currency markets have broken out, or down depending on your perspective.
Btw, I'm surprised that your selling down your position in gold - short term indicators show it to be overbought, but... it has to potential of being extremely overbought if there was ever any kind of volume involved...US$ chart looks especially bad with a strengthening down trend.
EURUSD +1.7%
CADUSD +1.6%
CHFUSD +2.1%
VERY VERY VERY tough day for the US$
It's "almost" surprising that gold isn't up at least as much.
-----
actually this is fucking crazy - so let me get this right, the CHFUSD +2.1% and the SPX is up about the same amount - yup, that's one hell of a bull market in our global village... (...sigh)
GOLD - GLD Chart Analysis
EURUSD +1.5%
CADUSD +1.54%
CHFUSD +1.9%
VERY tough day for the US$
It's "almost" surprising that gold isn't up at least as much.
EURUSD +1.25%
CADUSD +1.28%
CHFUSD +1.56%
tough day for the US$
gold breaking out....?
which brings back the old argument of does price movement precede volume...?
stopped out - I'm in cash.
It looks to me that this mornings gap has become a support level - I'm teetering on covering this short.
...just took a short on energy.
I took a small gain from my bank short - let's see what tomorrow brings.
I can imagine that this adds to the volatility - although I wasn't trading in the days before this kind of automation.
A...I don't envy MM position - trying to predict the price movements of gold...???
thanks for posting.
In bear markets Fridays and Mondays are normally hellish days - the reverse is true in "bull" markets.
IAC - I use CCI to determine the validity of candlesticks. A CCI stronger than 200 is the only time I'll consider a candlestick as an indicator of pivot points. This set-up works best in a non trending reactionary market. I believe the two indicators work best on a 6 month chart - ST.
I use RSI, ADX, and Moving Averages as a team - that's how I determine the quality and strength of the trend. I use those three indicators on a 12 month chart - IT.
Long-term....?
I'll leave that to the gurus.
here's what I look at day to day:
Banking index is now up 25% on the week
scratch that... after a second look.
...actually, I'm close to flat on that short position - due to big time volatility...
IAC ... yes too early to short - ADX is strong, strong enough to eclipse the CCI indicator which is now pushing close 300 - whenever I see the CCI indicator this hot I start looking at EOD candlesticks.
gold, oil and banks are green, but it's the stuff that's in the red that has me scratching my head.
...nevertheless... since I'm sitting here in front of a monitor I did take the banking sector short about an hour ago and I'm up close to 4% (2x bear fund)
the banking index - WOW..!!! up more than 10% (again) and of course it's taking crude with it - and gold (?)
"I'm going to try NOT to trade less until things start acting rational again"
good call.
I have a guy on SI calling for 15$ oil, US collapse...
agreed, you'd need a "collapse" for $15 oil, BUT
Real Estate valuations are actually turning UP here locally - house are still selling, smart money...? or is it fools after the fact...?
airline index is up 4-1/2% - if the markets turn up without crude, then the airlines will shine in a big way tomorrow.