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I'd be careful with that... Angiotech to acquire Cohesion Technologies @ a 64% premium over yesterday's stock price. At this point the market is extremely oversold-- and with M/A activity like this, the markets might be stronger than you think. I'd say weak in the morning, with a stong close.
National Gold Commences Trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange
http://www.nationalgold.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=43028
Silver exec not worried by digital camera market
http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/020930/minerals_silver_silverstandard_1.html
Michael
Well now there's a serious debt to equity situation, like it wasn't serious before? Methinks there's gotta be a better way to profit from the markets.
...a news story:
http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/business/RTGAM/20020927/wxvox28/Business/businessBN/...
Michael
I'd be careful about BGO... Kinross is in court with the Russians over some permits in the Magadan district in Siberia that'll probably have them marched out at gun point. Just ask Pan American's management about their court system.
So I'd say keep a weary eye on the Kinross' court proceedings before adding anymore Bema to your portfolio.
Michael
ahem! I use Yak Communications for my long distance calling. I wouldn't argue that the company is a POS since I haven't looked at their financials-- but the service is great.
Michael
The next drop could come sooner rather than later? I see gold holding onto $320 -- which makes this correction in the last 3 days a measly 2-1/2%????
Seems to me the selling of gold stocks was a tad overdone here today-- but I guess this might be another case of where the equities are leading the direction. Or, and more likely, the equities are in the hands (weak hands) of the amateurs.
Michael
Hi Tim. I'm glad to hear that-- I wasn't sure exactly where to post. I figured this thread is as good as anything around IHub. I'm also interested in energy and not just oil, I speculate on everything from nuclear to coal.
I'll keep you filled in on my position in Noranda-- as in when I sell it, real time of course. :)
Here's a comparison chart between Noranda and Phelps Dodge:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=PD&d=c&k=c3&c=nrd.to&p=m200&t=1y&l=on&z=l&a...
You'll notice that NRD is slightly less volatile than PD; this is because of two things. One, Noranda is an integrated miner-- more than just copper. They're into nickel, aluminium, cobalt, zinc and even gold... Two, they pay a $0.20 dividend per share quarterly-- which translates to 5.25% yield after today’s close.
My stop lose is @ $13.70 -- and my target price is $18.19
Michael
Tim... I hope this isn't an intrusion for this thread but I feel at this stage of the game - natural resources are the place to be.
Copper Chart:
http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/chart/CP/W
CRB Index:
http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/chart/RB/W
Added Noranda this morning @ $15.19
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=NRD.TO,uu[h,a]dacayiay[db][pd20,2!b50,200!f][vc60][iut!U...
Michael
The point of the book is in reference to investing in the right sectors and not so much about the stocks in themselves. It's about the W5 (who, what, when, where, why) of position trading. The chapter on risk is especially good-- I mean really good, you owe it to yourself to reread it and if anything, memorize it.
Michael
dood... reread the book, it had nothing to do with buy and hold-- you misunderstood what I consider the bible for swing traders.
It's one of my favs.
Michael
That's exactly my point. I'm not a momentum investor; I'm quite the opposite - a contrarian. I normally sell a third of my gold stocks into strength, like I mean real strength-- I've already had a 25% move in Kinross since the beginning of September and I expect another 25% going into the war.
When everyone is scared, I'm a buyer-- I do the opposite in the face of greed.
Michael
...since the end of August I've been fully invested in the gold sector with Kinross being my biggest holding-- my sell signal will be the actual tangible beginning of the war with Iraq. I'll only sell about a third of my position, and use the proceeds to go long in the markets.
Now I'm just hoping I'm the only one with these thoughts. :)
Michael
I'm not sure what you consider a buy signal-- but the strength of stocks like Kinross and Harmony must be discouraging for the broad market players.
There's a story out this morning about the possibilities of $100 crude, certainly not bullish for the economy. It looks at thought crude and gold are joined at the hip for now.
---------------------------------
Yamani: oil may hit $100 a barrel
By George Trefgarne, Economics Editor
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2002/09/25/woil25.xml&sSheet=/portal/2002/0....
Michael
I guess it goes to show that the gold sector is still a contrarian play...
Michael
Well, here we are a couple of days later and the stock is still dropping. I'd be more worried about a BK if the whole market wasn't falling too, but that isn't the case, so it's hard to tell how deep the doodoo is.
So to answer your question - no.
Michael
Thanks for posting, I think... The author alluding to a conspiracy-- but generally consumer cyclicals have done well this past little bit.
Michael
Is this board dead or alive?
POG at $326, Sinclair's "bullish catapult" is now in effect.
Michael
We must be getting closer to war, gold is now sitting at $325. This doesn't look good for the markets::sheeessshhh another down day.
Michael
It's been an absolutely ugly 4 weeks... My impression is the market hammers the good along with the bad. BTW, I'm not short - ain't long either-- it was just an observation. Anyway, QCOM does have an interesting chart - and Z's entree point looks good for now.
Michael
It seems to me that QCOM is out of step with the market. It'll get killed tomorrow while the rest of the markets bounce, no?
Michael
I'm actually surprised that gold was as strong as it was during the night. I think elections in Germany and currency problems in Mexico will have folks running to the US$ at least in the short term.
Michael
Zeev, I'm certainly not going to pound you over the head with it -- gold is gold, and at the moment the 200 day MA on my favorite mid cap gold producers are pointed in the Northern direction.
From what I can tell, gold and the US$ index have an inverse correlation -- gold stocks and the broad market indexes also have an inverse correlation. We've seen the Nasdaq soar from 1000 in 1995 to it's peak of just over 5000 -- we've also seen the US$ go from 70 (1995) to it's peak of just over 120.
Might be an off handed remark but I think both the DOW30 and the US$ have some catching up to do, no? High profile scandals at GE, IBM and CAT could be the catalyst for a new round of US$ weakness and it's round trip back to 70.
Oh, I dunno... I've been long on gold stocks since the beginning of last December because I thought the Euro was going to cause anarchy. Duh, silly me. The US$ dropped and gold shot up instead because it was accepted-- I got lucky.
Anyway, I'm fully invested in the mining sector and will return to a more conservative 2/3 by the end of October. My intention is to invest 1/3 into the broad markets - just not in the stocks that are played here. I think if there is a huge correction-- investors (not speculators) will migrate to stocks that are paying a healthy dividend. My top pick in this category is Cummins (CUM).
Michael
Zeev, I agree... gold is expensive if you're still viewing it as a commodity. At $320 it's still incredibly cheap if you consider it money. As the world begins to realise the U.S. dollar isn't the safe haven that it once was, gold will then retake its position as the worlds only true currency.
Michael
I agree... I look at things in the same way -- the longer the outlook the more fundamental I get -- the shorter the more I rely on T/A.
-
...in regards to oil, a lower price stimulates demand and a higher one doesn't. Big picture :: without a resolution for Iraq, we'll be reintroduced to stagflation.
Big fat neck ties here we come...
Michael
You have to keep a certain type of post off this thread not so much as it is off-topic, but redundant to an already too-busy thread. I'm guessing the mindset is that the "news" is already factored into the market.
Michael
In regards to the pasted release - does this mean National Gold intends to have a listing in the U.S.? - Seems rather optimistic for a $0.40 stock, no?
==================================================
National Gold announces that the Form 20-FR Registration Statement, which it filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on July 17, 2002, became effective on September 17, 2002.
National Gold Corp. is now a fully reporting company to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission under the 1934 Securities Act.
Michael
Joe... what makes this thread humourous is that know one will admit to being whipsawed ... how many people were stopped out this morning only to see the markets go in hyperdrive in the afternoon?
We'll never know...
The fact is the government in the U.S. has never been larger, security has never been tighter and the markets have never been this manipulated. If they can't tax it, they'll regulated it and if it won't move they'll stimulate it.
Michael
Matt... I noticed in "tools" it shows how many people have bookmarked me ... I figure it's you guys tracking my posting activity and to make sure I'm not taking any cheap shots at Zeev. So anyway, I'm curious... how many people have me on ignore, I'm certainly bearish - why wouldn't they ignore me?
Do you have a top ten list of the most ignored members of IHub? Would you dare publish one? Or how about adding the count to the "tools" menu?
Michael
Oh I dunno... I see the other way around - the stock market is falling day after day after day - the nice folks out there sense this, they withdraw their money from their accounts and pay down debt.
'tis the season for austerity ... in bad times people stop buying jewellery, they stop buying electronic gadgets and eventually stop buying cars and houses.
This isn't much of a bullish scenario for the precious metals (or even mining in general) until you factor in the eventual "investment demand" scenario.
I say go long - take an outlook of 3 months to 3 years and don't worry about the daytrading noize that's prevalent on these boards.
Michael
Good luck to all.
I'd like to remind everyone on this thread that the whole purpose of investing is to have more cash afterwards. Cash to be used at a later date, no? From what I can tell, this thread is more about gambling than about investing.
FWIW…There is too much non-systemic risk out there to validate technical analysis - yet, I see the charts posted and the chartists assembled for the inevitable death march Mr. Market is so intent on giving y'all.
A truism... the markets will return to its historical averages.
Good Luck for those intent on gambling - good hunting for those who choose to invest.
Zeev, I'm not pounding on him, nor am I laughin at you ... my dig is at Matt the chihuahua slayer ... yeah you're wrong you have been for quite some time - although I do respect your staying power - I hope your followers aren't getting killed by your blind eye.
from Briefing.com the other day The most recent index of refinancing activity from the Mortgage Bankers Association revealed the fifth highest reading ever.
Just out of curiousity - would you dare call another market rally after October going into Christmas?
Michael
George, what if I told you, here on in, gold moves with oil, vice versa? At the moment Mr. Bush has done what's probably the best politicking the world has seen, they're just too stupid to recognise it. - as for you? Think about a minute... Oil is money and nothing else even comes close - our friends the Russians are at our table shipping/supplying our strong dollar policy - and now the U.S. can continue with the security cleans.
Michael
George, this is getting kinda of boring, don't you think? If anything the Bush administration has done an admirable job at keeping this thing together - without the Republicans at the helm, the POG would of hit a record high by now.
Is that why you're pissed?
Michael
hmmm... I wonder if they'll delete your message? You're critizing the stock trader and not the stocks - oh yeah baby you're a goner.
Michael
Allegedly?
There's nothing alleged ... John Embry from RBC has talked openly about his report after it leaked - openly, nation wide, across Canada on all the major outlets.
Michael
Sun Micro Hammered on Loss Outlook
By K.C. Swanson
Staff Reporter
07/19/2002 07:54 AM EDT
After three straight money-losing quarters, Sun Microsystems (SUNW:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis) gave itself a pat on the back when it finally reported a tiny profit after the bell Thursday. The only problem: it 'fessed up that next quarter, it expects to backslide into the red once again.
http://www.thestreet.com/tech/kcswanson/10032703.html
Michael
accounting irregularities ... What else could it be?
Michael
if kitco isn't working for you - try ino.com
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=i&w=30&t=c&a=12
Michael
The news here is that precious metals are acting like they should -- it's a big ol'middle finger aimed at those criminals on Wall Street.
Michael