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Walrus: Do yourself a favor, and learn how to trade futures. There is so much opportunity to make money right now, it's ridiculous.
The day trade margin on e-minis is $400.00. The average daily range for e-minis for the last 120 days is 21 points. Today is a classic example 1037.00 low, 1058.00 high. On a 1 lot that's $1050.00. With a $10,000.00 account you could conservatively trade 5 lots. That works out to $62.50 a tic, $250 a point.
With disciplined money management, you could be 50% profitable on your trades and still take out 10% range, or $525.00 on average. With a little experience and practice you could increase your per cent of profitable trades to 60%-70%+. Your probability of making $250,000.00, one-day-at-a time, $1000.00 a day for 250 trading days, is much higher and far less riskier, than a five year buy&hope&pray strategy, with any stock.
Besides e-mini s&ps, you can trade bonds, euros, crude oil, e-mini naz and the mini dow. If you want you can trade electronically at night. The dax and the stoxx50 are both great trade.
Commodity prices are rising in response to a falling dollar ...primary reason. Look at a chart, it's not a coincidence.
Think for yourself, and form your own opinions by OBSERVING, not by parroting some article you read. Journalists get paid to write articles, regardless of their accuracy. Most of the articles you read, and most of what you hear on CNBC is utter nonsense, factually incorrect, or just plain wrong. You're doing yourself a great disservice trying to educate yourself from these sources.
“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” – Mark Twain
CYRX (ADJUSTED FOR 1:10 REVERSE SPLIT) 0.07 CENTS LAST
BONDS going to 155.00 SPX may look like it's trading @ 999, because we might be looking up at 666.
The global economy has one foot in the grave, and the other one on a banana peel. However, bearish sentiment is way to high right now, for a collapse. One more minor cyclical rally, just to get everybody bullish and complacent again, and then "splat".
Take you pick which driver(s) it's going to be that pushes the economy off the precipice.
CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT
Historic Unemployment rates in G7
US STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT
Unprecedented budget shortfalls & funding problems
BOND BUBBLE
Historically high Bond Prices... yes, but not until everybody stops talking about there being bubble and it bursting
RISK REVERSAL
Historic level of financial market participation and dependency (i.e. pension entitlements)
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
Market Values are down 45 - 55% with little write downs as of yet being taken by banks, insurance or financial holders.
RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE – PHASE II
Shadow Inventory, Strategic Defaults, Looming Option ARMS ‘python’, LTV levels.
CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
The Sub Price of Europe – Level of borrowing in non sovereign currency (EU loans)
PENSION – ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
Unfunded Pension Liabilities - > $100T in US
SOVEREIGN DEBT - PIIGS
Insolvency and Inability to stimulate economies
EU BANKING CRISIS
Bank Ratios of 50:1 and toxic debt on and off the balance sheet
US BANKING CRISIS II
Deferred accounted write-downs for Real Estate, Commercial Real Estate & HELOCS
IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
Israeli attack on Iran - Middle East escalation
FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAMS EXPIRATION
Withdrawal of Financial Crisis Triage Programs and interest rate normalization
FINANCE & INSUR. BALANCE SHEET WRITE-OFFS
Accounting for Commercial Real Estate market values, loan loss reserves
RISING INTEREST RATES
Reversal in Interest rate and impact on government financing budgets
NATURAL DISASTER
Presently: Gulf Oil Spill Economic fallout and possible hurricane impact
PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
Impact of Obamacare, Dodd-Frank Bill and others in reaction to present environment.
JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
Ability for Japan to continue to fund national debt with shifting demographic patterns.
CREDIT CONTRACTION II
Bankruptcy & Mal-Investment Catalyst
US FISCAL, TRADE AND ACCOUNT IMBALANCES
Inability of the US to finance imbalances
NORTH & SOUTH KOREA
Geo-Political tensions - Escalating
CHINA BUBBLE
Real Estate & speculative growth bubbles
GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE
Fannie, Freddie, Ginnie, FHA, FDIC, Pension Guarantee backstop funding.
CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES
Reverse Gearing & margin pressures
SLOWING RETAIL & CONSUMER SALES
Impact of slowing consumer sales and increasing savings rate on 70% consumption US Economy
PUBLIC SENTIMENT & CONFIDENCE
Growing social unrest and public rage
US RESERVE CURRENCY
Emergence of alternative solutions such as SDRs. Inflationary repatriation impact
SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
Slowing Corporate Top-Line revenue growth rates
US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
Domestic Inflationary Pressures, but let's not forget- there's still a 25% chance would could fall into a deflationary cycle
GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
Global Overcapacity & Under utilization
OIL PRICE PRESSURES
Shortages, Peak Oil & Asian Growth demand.
FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
Production shortages, distribution break-downs with growing Asian demand
US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
Over-Valuation and unrealistic earnings estimates.
PANDEMIC
Unknown black swan
TERRORIST EVENT
Unknown black swan
AND LET'S NOT FORGET THE IDIOT IN THE WHITE HOUSE AND THE 535 DEMAGOGUES ON CAPITAL HILL !!!
It's the most frightening thought of all.
Chudd: Term limits may be the start, but it is certainly NOT the answer, nor is the solution, a simple one.
Amen, it's a rigged game. We are virtually impotent and helpless to do anything about it. Time for a populist revolt....ANARCHY!!!
Read this slowly, let it sink in, VOTE in November
This is about as clear and easy to understand as it can be.
The article below is completely neutral, not anti republican or democrat.
Charlie Reese, a retired reporter for the Orlando Sentinel has hit the nail directly on the head, defining clearly who it is that in the final analysis must assume responsibility for the judgments made that impact each one of us every day.
545 vs. 300,000,000
EVERY CITIZEN NEEDS TO READ THIS AND THINK ABOUT WHAT THIS JOURNALIST HAS SCRIPTED IN THIS MESSAGE. READ IT AND THEN REALLY THINK ABOUT OUR CURRENT POLITICAL DEBACLE.
Charley Reese has been a journalist for 49 years.
545 PEOPLE -- By Charlie Reese
Politicians are the only people in the world who create problems and then campaign against them.
Have you ever wondered, if both the Democrats and the Republicans are against deficits, WHY do we have deficits?
Have you ever wondered, if all the politicians are against inflation and high taxes, WHY do we have inflation and high taxes?
You and I don't propose a federal budget. The president does.
You and I don't have the Constitutional authority to vote on appropriations. The House of Representatives does.
You and I don't write the tax code, Congress does.
You and I don't set fiscal policy, Congress does.
You and I don't control monetary policy, the Federal Reserve Bank does.
One hundred senators, 435 congressmen, one president, and nine Supreme Court justices equates to 545 human beings out of the 300 million are directly, legally, morally, and individually responsible for the domestic problems that plague this country.
I excluded the members of the Federal Reserve Board because that problem was created by the Congress. In 1913, Congress delegated its Constitutional duty to provide a sound currency to a federally chartered, but private, central bank.
I excluded all the special interests and lobbyists for a sound reason. They have no legal authority. They have no ability to coerce a senator, a congressman, or a president to do one cotton-picking thing. I don't care if they offer a politician $1 million dollars in cash. The politician has the power to accept or reject it. No matter what the lobbyist promises, it is the legislator's responsibility to determine how he votes.
Those 545 human beings spend much of their energy convincing you that what they did is not their fault. They cooperate in this common con regardless of party.
What separates a politician from a normal human being is an excessive amount of gall. No normal human being would have the gall of a Speaker, who stood up and criticized the President for creating deficits.... . The president can only propose a budget. He cannot force the Congress to accept it.
The Constitution, which is the supreme law of the land, gives sole responsibility to the House of Representatives for originating and approving appropriations and taxes. Who is the speaker of the House? Nancy Pelosi. She is the leader of the majority party. She and fellow House members, not the president, can approve any budget they want. If the president vetoes it, they can pass it over his veto if they agree to.
It seems inconceivable to me that a nation of 300 million can not replace
545 people who stand convicted -- by present facts -- of incompetence and irresponsibility. I can't think of a single domestic problem that is not traceable directly to those 545 people. When you fully grasp the plain truth that 545 people exercise the power of the federal government, then it must follow that what exists is what they want to exist.
If the tax code is unfair, it's because they want it unfair.
If the budget is in the red, it's because they want it in the red ..
If the Army & Marines are in IRAQ , it's because they want them in IRAQ. If they do not receive social security but are on an elite retirement plan not available to the people, it's because they want it that way.
There are no insoluble government problems.
Do not let these 545 people shift the blame to bureaucrats, whom they hire and whose jobs they can abolish; to lobbyists, whose gifts and advice they can reject; to regulators, to whom they give the power to regulate and from whom they can take this power. Above all, do not let them con you into the belief that there exists disembodied mystical forces like "the economy," "inflation," or "politics" that prevent them from doing what they take an oath to do.
Those 545 people, and they alone, are responsible.
They, and they alone, have the power..
They, and they alone, should be held accountable by the people who are their bosses.
Provided the voters have the gumption to manage their own employees...
We should vote all of them out of office and clean up their mess!
Charlie Reese is a former columnist of the Orlando Sentinel Newspaper.
What you do with this article now that you have read it......... Is up to you.
Sales Tax
School Tax
Liquor Tax
Luxury Tax
Excise Taxes
Property Tax
Cigarette Tax
Medicare Tax
Inventory Tax
Real Estate Tax
Well Permit Tax
Fuel Permit Tax
Inheritance Tax
Road Usage Tax
CDL license Tax
Dog License Tax
State Income Tax
Food License Tax
Vehicle Sales Tax
Gross Receipts Tax
Social Security Tax
Service Charge Tax
Fishing License Tax
Federal Income Tax
Building Permit Tax
IRS Interest Charges
Hunting License Tax
Marriage License Tax
Corporate Income Tax
Personal Property Tax
Accounts Receivable Tax
Recreational Vehicle Tax
Workers Compensation Tax
Watercraft Registration Tax
Telephone Usage Charge Tax
Telephone Federal Excise Tax
Telephone State and Local Tax
IRS Penalties (tax on top of tax)
State Unemployment Tax (SUTA)
Federal Unemployment Tax (FUTA)
Telephone Minimum Usage Surcharge Tax
Telephone Federal Universal Service Fee Tax
Gasoline Tax (currently 44.75 cents per gallon)
Utility Taxes Vehicle License Registration Tax
Telephone Federal, State and Local Surcharge Taxes
Telephone Recurring and Nonrecurring Charges Tax
Not one of these taxes existed 100 years ago, & our nation was the most prosperous in the world.
We had absolutely no national debt, had the largest middle class in the world, and Mom stayed home to raise the kids.
What in the hell happened? Can you spell 'politicians? ' I hope this goes around THE USA at least 100 times!!!
YOU can help it get there!!!
GO AHEAD - - - BE AN AMERICAN!!!
PS.
If you do the right thing and pass this on - which is entirely up to you -
please do the right thing and highlight and delete any addresses you receive with it.
Thank You
Why should someone be punished for being more productive than someone else? Taxing the wealthy isn't the answer.
The Path To Success
Along with filling my tires with air and my tank with gas, I always wash my car before embarking on a road trip. Not only is a clean machine more pleasing to the eyes, but a clean windshield is more transparent to the eyes. This pristine condition however, is about as ephemeral as the freshly filled tank of gas. Between the smoke and dirt, to pollution and oil, it is amazing how quickly, dirt and gunk can collect on a clear windshield and morph it into an opaque sheet of glass. Even after, I generously apply my spritzers, I cannot not attain the level of transparency I had achieved at the car wash.
Just like car windows, we go through life, and as we progress, we all collect some level of gunk on our souls and subconscious minds. This gunk consists of misinformation, prejudices, conflict, trauma, and myriad other experiences, that form negative layers on our psyches. These layers form an opaque film, that prevents us from seeing the world in the way it truly exists. And being unable to see reality clearly, will severely limit one from fulfilling their true potential.
Enveloping us, this obscuration and its destructive effects, are often exposed and magnified when trading. Negative habits and emotions cause more trading losses, than misreading a chart or misinterpreting market fundamentals. It is often said that the eyes are the window to the soul, but anyone who has ever traded, knows that trading can expose one's weaknesses, and open up a Pandora's box of vulnerabilities, that are there for all to see and quantify.
The only way traders are able to shed this fabric of filth is through self-discovery. You can read as many books on trading as you desire, and create new indicators and ways of looking at, and analyzing the market, but if you don’t look at, and analyze yourself first, it will be difficult to find success.
The road to self-discovery inevitably leads to the path to success, but you must first be able to chip away at the layer that obscures your vision and clouds your view of the road. By determining and eliminating your weaknesses, negative habits, and negative emotions, you will then be able to trade with a clear head and clear vision.
One of the reasons I enjoy writing, is that allows me to express my feelings and emotions, and vent my frustrations in a positive way. It not only also forces me to think about what is happening around me, but also what’s happening within me. It is my path to self-improvement, and it helps provide me with guidance and direction throughout my life, and my trading.
In his book The Daily Trading Coach, Dr. Brett Steenbarger writes about the importance of keeping a cognitive or psychological journal, along with an educational and trading journal. He place equal importance on all three categories, but recommends beginning with the educational, following with the trading, and progressing to the psychological.
The idea is to use the cognitive journal to keep a real time record of what you're thinking and feeling while you are trading, so that you can become a better self-observer. This helps you to identify problems as the occur, so that you can keep them from affecting your trading.
His suggested progression is logical because perfecting the psychological skill is the most difficult one to achieve. Traders not only have to learn what do correctly, but have to unlearn bad habits, and deeply embedded negative emotions.
The sooner in the day they begin to assess their emotional status, the better. Therefore, best practice calls for writing in your journal, first thing in the morning. This initiates the process of clearing your mind for the remainder of the day, and better prepares you for the trading session.
Acquiring the knowledge of trading mechanics, tactics, strategies, and risk management is relatively easy and a finite process. Developing the mental skills of focus, discipline, objectivity, and self- confidence is much more demanding. In fact, it’s the one area of trading performance that is a continuous learning experience, and for some a continuous struggle.
For the most part, electronic traders are all participating on a level playing field. They all have access to powerful computers, large band-with, the same front ends and pipes, and resources. The traders that rise to the top, however, are the ones that have achieved mental mastery along with trading expertise. They have found a way to clean that gunk off the window, and obtain a clear view of life, the markets, and themselves.
Oh My G:
1 Month Bill 0.14% -0.010
3 Month Bill 0.14% -0.010
6 Month Bill 0.18% UNCH
1 Year Note 0.22% -0.010
2 Year Note 0.46% -0.020
3 Year Note 0.73% -0.030
5 Year Note 1.38% -0.040
7 Year Note 1.99% -0.050
10 Year Note 2.57% -0.060
30 Year Note 3.64% -0.090
Stella, 666 is the 2009 low, and the low-of-the-move of the crash, in the SPX.
There are certain things in life, one has no control over - dreams are one, and stocks is another... that is unless, you’re goldman or j.p. perhaps.
The price action of CYRX is sending investors a message, but they are not listening to it.. and while they continue to search for the “cryopot-of-gold”, they are missing the gold mine of opportunities, that are all around them.
Cryoport is dead money. It would be foolish to have more than 5% of your investment dollars invested in CYRX, when those dollars could be used to actually make money.
I'm not discounting the effect China is going to have on inflation in developed countries, just the reason why. Either way, we'll never really know if it's wage demands or consumer demand in emerging countries that causes higher commodity prices, but it will undoubtedly be weaker currencies in developed nations that does contribute to higher prices.
As far as the bonds go, they are still going. Everyday someone says they can't go higher...they go higher, and my P&L gets bigger. I could care less what anybody says, as long as they keep going higher. When the bonds, finally do show signs of price exhaustion, I'll be out, and I'll get short, for the ride back down.
When I first started trading bonds, they were in a secular bear trend, so trading them from the short side is all I knew for a long time. All bull markets are followed by bear markets eventually, and all bear markets have greater velocity than bull markets, especially at their inception. But, I'm not going to get out of my longs and get short short until a top is in place. That could be at 135 or it could be at 155.00. I'll let the market tell me , and not the "pundits" on CNBC or on some article I read on the Internet.
BTW: Bill Gross is still long treasuries, but the higher the market goes, and the further out the tails, the greater the risk, and the higher the probability, that a top could be made. When you are managing as much money as he is, and your bond position is as large as PIMCO's, you can't wait till the top is put in and the market is already on it's way down. He has to plan ahead and start scaling out of his position, well in advance of the top.
dwalrus: I posted this comment earlier this morning, pre-market. I would appreciate you feedback.
http://tradestrongmanagement.blogspot.com/p/market-matters-08-16-17-2010.html
dwalrus: I'm thinking about it, although I don't think I would give trade recommendations in the literal sense. Instead, the daily commentaries would explain how I view the markets and how I approach my trades. It would be geared toward short term time frames and intra-day trading, but would still keep in perspective the intermediate and long term trend.
I could easily see the SPX breaking down to 875. However, if there was another "black swan" type of disaster, ie., a geo-political event of great magnitude( Israel attacking Iran) we could conceivably take out the 666 low.
Catching these moves are critical. As a result of structural changes to the global economy and global markets, mean reversion strategies are less effective as returns now cluster around what have become fatter, larger tails.
In other words, for the last 25 years we were in an investment environment, where perceived risk was small, and actual risk was great. There was a predictable, almost "laissez faire" government policy, controlled inflation, and predictable business cycles. In order to generate returns in this low volatility environment, investors used great amounts of leverage to achieve returns that were bunched around the mean.
In the current investment environment, perceived risk is great, and due to central bank accommodation, actual risk may not be as great. Increased government regulation is now de rigeuer, there is great economic uncertainty, and eventually, we will transition to an inflationary economic cycle. Lenders will have to account for the greater uncertainty and risk, and the cost of investment financing will rise. All these factors will serve to discourage the use of leverage and magnify the importance of "getting the tails right."
Investors who don't understand the implications of these changes and adapt accordingly, will not be successful.
The SPX closed down 3.8% for the week, the DJIA -3.3% and NASDAQ -5% with Wednesday’s gap down testament to risk aversion, accounting for the majority of the weeks range and damage. Call it what you may- implied easing, QE Lite, or just plain old monetizing the debt, the market and investors, were neither pleased with the Fed’s actions, nor Dr. Benanke’s downgraded assessment of the U.S. economy.
Only the dollar, gold and treasuries, traded higher as investors seeked saftey, with the 10 YR closing out the week yielding 2.67% and the yield curve widening to almost 120 basis points. With earnings out of the way, option’s expiration, and little in the way of major economic releases next week , we could be in store for more low volume days like today’s, as we close out the Summer.
After a 3% plus rally in the SPX the last 3 weeks of July, and a fresh influx of capital the first week of August, which led to a minor rally from 1088 to 1130, the “pundits” on CNBC were all calling for the next leg of the summer rally.
The “smart money” however, did not wait for this Wednesday to get out of equities. The hedge funds and institutions started moving out of equities and into treasuries July 27. While the market rallied, and bullish sentiment swelled, institutional money was flowing out of equities. The rate-of change (ROC) , and the money flow index (MFI) both fell as the market traded higher, indicating institutional selling and what may have been a “prescient” move from "risk on" to "risk off."
For now uncertainity best describes the market. Fewer reliable investment strategies are available to investors, and asset classes with quantifiable returns -on- investment are scarce. Current market behavior and volatile movements of capital should perpetuate, as money chases fewer “safe” assets, and investors capriciously switch back and forth, from risk aversion to risk taking.
Roger that, Stella.
If you would like, you can check out my blog. Now, I won't have to vent on the CYRX board - I can do it there. I also plan on doing a daily market commentary on the blog.
http://tradestrongmanagement.blogspot.com/
"doghouse" is in the process of building a website for me. You will be able to access it by clicking on the picture of the CBOT.
For now, TRADESTRONG only offers one-on-one mentoring, but I am considering expanding into asset management.
Oh yeah, I forgot. Betcha FedEx, eventually picks up Cryoport... on the (very) cheap.
I don’t think I am going to take the first bet, but I’ll definitely take the second.
Your presentation was fine. As a matter of fact, your writing and and knowledge of the markets have improved dramatically over the last few years. However, you have a tendency to support you arguments, and draw conclusions, from miscellaneous “headline” facts that often belie the big picture, represent only part of the picture, or contradict reality.
While the economies of emerging nations are breaking out and almost constitute half of the global economy, they are not demanding “a similar lifestyle afforded to Americans.” In fact, the economies of emerging nations are geared to produce for export, not internal consumption. Western style consumption is actually antithetical to emerging countries’ cultures. Conversely, developed nation consumers are maxed out because of too much debt. It is this lack of global aggregate demand, resulting from too much debt in parts of the global economy and not enough in others, that is the essence of the problem and the reason treasuries continue to rally.
While Germany’s economy may be experiencing an uptick, it shouldn’t be a surprise. Germany has the least amount of debt, and historically, the strongest economy in the eurozone. Unfortunately, the rest of Europe is still in the midst of a deflationary drag, and there are serious questions about the very makeup of the eurozone, and the financial stability of its banking system. Therefore, in Europe we’re unlikely to see any signs of inflation over the next few years.
Japan faces similar problems as the U.S., however their problems pre-date ours, and their susceptibility to inflationary concerns lags behind ours.
Will the bond rally last forever? Of course not. Is it ending anytime soon...doubtful. Inflation is a lagging indicator of the economic cycle; it takes a while for inflation to turn in either direction, either up or down. It’s not uncommon for inflation to ramp up a year or so after the economy recovers, and I don’t think you will see that happening till the latter part of 2011.
When the bond rally does come to an end, will it be because of one of the reasons you enumerated? (“ inflation do to external pressures, an improving domestic economy or investors demanding higher yields for greater risk” ) Most likely it will be a combination of factors that first brings about inflationary concerns, and the first reason you mentioned may be part of the problem. Higher prices for the goods that the developed economies import from emerging countries could either cause in part or exacerbate existing inflation. Higher wage demands from emerging country workers, combined with devalued currencies of developed countries would lead to higher commodity prices. In fact, we are experiencing higher commodity and crude oil prices, and a weakened dollar currently.
Demand based inflation due to economic growth may be exacerbated by capacity constraints as economies start to recover, leading to the possibility of higher inflation. However, the “new normal” appears to be a reality. Slow growth in the developed world, insufficiently high levels of consumption in the emerging world, and seemingly inexplicable low total returns on investment portfolios, bonds and stocks. For now, there is plenty of excess capacity and the money supply is still shrinking. Even if money supply were to begin to grow, it would take a year or two until it’s inflationary effects were felt on the economy, so I don’t think you will see demand based inflation, from an improving economy for a while.
In a risk adverse environment, yield loses importance, and safety and liquidity become a paramount priority. We are seeing that currently. Historically low yields, yet they are still buying treasuries, (and corporate debt for the yield) because of their perceived safety. Investors are content to buy short dated maturities, and are not venturing out the curve in search of higher yields.Demanding a higher a yield for investments does not cause inflation, inflation cause investors to seek higher yields, in search of real returns. ,
More likely, the cause of the next bout of inflation will be caused by the actions of central banks or governments and then exacerbated by higher commodity prices, and supply demand imbalance due to capacity destruction. Central banks may be too late in reigning in extraordinary accommodation or may even feel that another QE is necessary. Finally, some governments will be tempted to use inflation as a solution to fiscal deficits during an era of low real growth. If a country doesn't see an easy way to grow out of its budget deficit, it could adopt inflationary policies such as debt monetization or currency devaluation as ways to solve its budgetary problems.
Your analysis of the bond market makes about as much sense as your interpretation of the employment data, and it's bullish connection with CYRX. Bonds are going substantially higher and not coming down anytime soon. Cyrx is another story, altogether.
No matter how you slice it, non-farm payroll declined by 131,000 in July. Friday’s news also included unfavorable revisions to data released in previous months. Plain and simple, Friday’s employment report was disappointing. The most significant concern is the duration of the high rate of unemployment. Just like a security builds value the longer it trades at a particular price, the longer the unemployment rate stays at these elevated levels, the harder it will become to overcome it’s current state of inertia.
So while there may have been an uptick in job offers in the shipping and freight industries, those sectors were also the hardest hit during the recession. The Baltic Dry Index underperformed the S&P by as much as 40% YTD, and FedEx underperformed the S&P by as much as 30% post crash , and is just starting to recover. It stands to reason then, these sectors lost the most jobs. Consequently, they have the most ground to make up, and would logically be the areas where you would see the most initial hiring.
The 2y note fell below 0.50% for the first time ever; and stayed there; It didn’t sell off when the stock market rallied back in the afternoon. The short end of the bond market seems to be in some disagreement about the equities market's and your assessment, of the employment numbers. While poor employment numbers Thursday and Friday, met with initial selling in the broader market, stocks came back both days, and closed strongly. Shortsightedly, the stock market now considers weak economic numbers to be bullish. They believe it could lead to further quantitative easing, which could sustain and even accelerate the current cyclical rally. Either that, or they believe that the stock market will be a good hedge against inflation. Because, further easing by the fed puts us that much closer to ending the disinflationary cycle we’re in, and will surely, (don’t call me Shirley) usher in the beginning of inflationary expectations, and subsequent inflation.
While the bond market won’t keep going up forever, and eventually will come down, it won’t be for a very long time. And for Cryoport’s sake you better hope it stays up. Because, if the bond market takes it on the chin, as bad as you think it will, its going to be because of extremely high inflation. That would mean a drastically weakened dollar, and drastically higher commodity and crude oil prices, but this all would be taking place still, in a low growth environment. Investors would be forced to venture further out in the curve, in search of positive nominal yield, and as a result, the yield curve wouldl invert, with short term rates rising dramatically. Think it’s hard to borrow money now, wait till then. It would be the the old “snowball’s chance in hell “ scenario, not only for Cryoport, but for a myriad of other companies also.
For the second day in a row the SPX sold off on the employment stats, (or lack thereof ) and for the second day in a row, the market staged a late day rally closing in the upper 1/3 of the week’s range, and closing higher and above the 20MA on the weekly chart. The VIX made near term new lows, the dollar closed lower making a new 5 month low, and futures closed well above value and the VWAP. All these factors support the theory that the market is heading higher. Additionally, Friday was the second consecutive session in which S&P futures did not trade above the previous day’s close. Historically, that’s an indication the market is short-term oversold and likely to bounce the following session.
However, not to be ignored is the continued flow of capital into the short end of treasuries and the ever widening yield curve, as the 2s and 10s made new highs, and the 30 year lagged behind. The short end is of course reflecting the economy’s current state, while the long end is portending an end to our current near- deflationary state, and the transition to inflation in the future. See the huge rally in commodities, the bump in crude prices, and a falling dollar.
The disconnect between the bond market and equities cannot last much longer, and my past experience tells me the bond market usually wins out. So while I think the market will begin the week strongly and trade higher, the rally will be short lived, and an intermediate top will be put in.
I'm not sure about CYRX, but the broader market definitely wants to trade higher. The SPX staged a strong comeback and closed strong, after getting hit hard pre-market in reaction to an uptick in initial claims. Futures traded even higher post-market, nearly making up 100% of the ground it lost after the report, and is now trading well above today's value area and VWAP, indicating the market is rotating higher seeking higher value. The VIX, dollar, and treasuries all closed on their lows, and volume in E-Mini S&P futures was approximately 20% below it's normal levels. When this large of a drop in volume coincides with a lower high, low, and close for S&P futures, it’s normally a short-term bullish indication. Low-volume sell-offs rarely precede a sustained move lower. SPX could see the 1135-1140 area tomorrow or soon thereafter.
hstrader: If someone is privy to some news about Cryoport, they are showing incredible restraint, because we have not seen the the volume that would be attendant with a "leak". For whatever reason CYRX is moving higher, the psychology of traders/investors has changed. It may simply be that recent news has changed the perception of some investors. They viewed a sub $1.00 price as "unfair" or a good value, and rejecting that level, SP is now probing higher seeking value at a different level. It is the reaction of these investors to news and their interpretation of the news that drives price and determines value, whether that perception is correct or not.
CYRX experienced a huge deviation in SP, so it should not come as a surprise that there would be some attempt at mean reversion as investors psychology turns more sanguine. CYRX is now rotating higher seeking a new value area that will be determined when there is a market balance achieved between buyers and sellers. I think that area will be $2.00. Over 425,000 shares traded at that price, and markets tend to rotate back to previous levels of high volume and market balance. Then it's up to the buyers and sellers to once again decide if they are going to reject this area and drive price back down, or if they are going to probe higher looking for the next value area.
hstrader: The SPX will have made a bull hook reversal if it can manage to close above the 1100 level once again... which I think it will. The market was up (3%+) in the three weeks leading up to the last three days of the month, and then we sold off from 1115 down to 1088, which I assume was some profit taking into month-end. I think you will see a fresh influx of buyers next week, during the first week of August. However, I don't expect this little bullish seasonal window to last much past next week or the 1140 level.
hstrader: SPX was off .69% on a relatively low volume-narrow range day yesterday, but closed above Friday's high/settlement, which is near term support ( SPX 1100). It is important that we hold that level today if we are going to move higher. Interesting to note that with the SPX trading more than 0.5% below Tuesday's low, new 20-day lows remain at 224, well below Tuesday's final reading of 311. Typically you’ll see an expansion of new 20-day lows when the SPX trades below the previous day’s low, given that this is a much more sensitive measure than the 52-week high/low data. When this doesn’t occur, it’s a bullish sign for stocks, and the S&P has a strong record of posting a subsequently higher close within the next four sessions. Of the last 30 occurrences, all 30 led to a higher SPX close within four days. I'm looking for 1140 during this time frame, and then I'll see if it's time to start looking for a place to hang my shorts.
Thanks, Stella.
While Joe echoes my sentiments, the market doesn't. The points he and I raised take time to play out before their effect is felt in the markets. But the fact that treasuries haven't sold off as the market rallied, is a divergence that should not be ignored.
Nevertheless, the market has been firing on all cylinders since last Thursday’s close. There's no reason to fight it...for now. Participation is about as broad as it gets, and the market internals are about as strong as they ever get. While the market may be overbought, an overbought market that stays up is very bullish. Like you said, the trend is your friend, even if that trend is short or intermediate term, so I am not interested in looking for a top quite yet.
Gotta disagree with you. This is a sucker’s rally. I am highly skeptical that the current “recovery” is sustainable. While the U.S. and the rest of the world has experienced a bounce, industrial countries remain below pre-crisis levels of GDP, wealth , and employment. The bounce has not translated into the type of job creation and corporate investment, we would normally see during an economic recovery.
Corporate profits are up, but this has mostly been to cost resizing. The biggest bounce has probably been the banks, but their road back to profitability was fueled by the steep yield curve, and not by making loans. These sources of growth, including the stimulus and inventory restocking are merely a temporary fix, and are not sustainable drivers of growth and employment.
The U.S. economy is still experiencing low to medium growth, and deteriorated public finances, and is now going to be facing greater government regulation and most likely, inflation somewhere down the road. Consumer confidence is down, as is the housing market, and the money supply continues to shrink. It is in this context that Obama and the Democrats want to raise taxes, leaving the U.S. vulnerable to more domestic financial instability.
I'll let everyone decide for themselves, but I think it would be more profitable, to base your investment decisions on what is happening, and what is most likely going to happen, rather than what you would like to happen.
Macro fundamentals are deteriorating, the economy may be double-dipping (bond market is confirming), housing is certainly double-dipping (if it ever recovered, at all)-- jobs aren't going to be created anytime soon, the Democrats are regulating everything they can get their hands on before they lose control, and taxes are about to get jacked up.
The technicals of all the equity markets are horrible; indexes failed miserably from regaining their respective 200 Day MAs on Friday, and are right back to the flash crash lows.
The last place I want to put my money is in equities, especially a company that is down 80% YTD, has laughable revenues, and is raising capital (once again), within months of executing a follow-on offering which resulted in 90% haircut of the company's valuation.
Our global economy, our use of debt, and our financial markets have been structurally changed to the detriment of everyone. If the economy was robust or even remotely good, Cryoport would stand only a 30% chance of success. But that would be the time to take a shot...you want to buy equities in a bull market, not a bear. Right now, I just don't see that happening.
I know you are not doing it intentionally, but you are giving false hope to the same people, who made made the same mistakes before, and are quite possibly leading them and others, over the cliff once again.
"To make great sums of money, you must first learn to how to lose much smaller sums when you are wrong". Trading is is a game of probability, and trading the pennies is the ultimate numbers game. Going in you need to realize the odds of a penny play working (2X-3X) is probably 20% and the odds of hitting a 10 bagger or more is probably sub 5%. So it should come as no surprise, EXTO didn't work...the odds were against it. And perhaps the next 4 or 5 penny plays won't work either; but there is always going to be a 10X play somewhere around the corner, regardless if the company is real / legit or not. That's why you need to play a large sample of stocks, and cut your losses when you're wrong, and ride and add to your winners when you're right...and most importantly, hit the "exit" while SP is still on the way up... before everyone else decides to dump. Good luck to all on the next one, and the next one...
I guess OT doesn't get my sense of humor. Glad you get it, Stella!
CEO: More likely it will be a dead canary!
Lotto123: Thanks for the invite to the CLT board. It's been very frustrating living in Philly, after having lived in Chicago my entire life, especially now with the Blackhawks playing the Flyers in the Cup. Its even worse during football season, and of course, the food here just doesn't measure up to Chicago. I'm craving Mr. Beef, Wiener's Circle, Super Dawg, and Malnati's, to name a few.
Blackhawks need to step it up a notch or two, or I'll be treating my friend in Philly to that hoagie at Sarcone's.
Chudd: Friendly wager; loser treats the winner to a hoagie, bag of chips, and a soda, from Sarcone's in South Philly.
GO BLACKHAWKS !!!
Living in Philly now, but grew up watching the 2 best hockey players ever, to lace up a pair of skates... Bobby Hull and Stan Mikita. Blackhawks in 6.
Go to the "tigertrader" archives and read my posts on the "Spongetech" message board...hardly pumped the stock.
I first recommended spng when it was trading at 0.02 as a technical trade, not a play based on the company's fundies, and it took 6 months to work, but it was a big trade.
When I noticed subsequent spikes in volume and activity, I made mention of it, strictly as as a trade.
Timing and money management are everything. I got back into the stock and lost money, but it was minor compared to what I made initially. I also pleaded daily with a member of this board, in private, to bang out of his position, and never look back.
Everybody remember this press release issued by WiFi Wireless Inc. I know I bought stock thinking WiFi had the patents.
Apr 11, 2007 08:00 ET
WiFi Wireless Announces New Patents for Cargo Container Device Tracking and Monitor Systems
"We are very excited that after several months of due diligence and certification of our system, Baker Botts LLP has obtained two patent numbers. The recently patented technology provides an entirely new class of cargo security that is ideally suited for homeland security," said Eugene Curcio, Chairman of WiFi Wireless, Inc.
Reality was, WiFi Wireless Inc. was not issued patents. In fact, they were eventually denied patents, because their technology was "me too" technology. In other words there was nothing unique about WiFi's product, that would justify a USPTO patent.
In addition, the patent applications were not in the name of WiFi Wireless. They were applied for under Eugene Curcio/Diamond Arrow LLC and another Curcio controlled entity called Container Trac LLC, whose only officer is Seguros SA of Zurich, Switzerland. Makes one wonder what would have happened if Wifi was issued the patents.
http://nvsos.gov/sosentitysearch/CorpDetails.aspx?lx8nvq=V5x4zTDiWc7oPNVEJmaT1g%253d%253d&nt7=0
Where's Waldo?
For those of you who are not aware of the current status of WiFi Wireless, and it's Chairman Eugene L Curcio, I will bring you up to speed. WFWL failed to file it's 10K and was subsequently downgraded to "STOP/ NO INFORMATION, by Pink Sheets. Apparently, Curcio was too busy skipping out on his landlord, Abdollah Khademi, and sticking him for $24,000.00 in unpaid rent, to file WiFi's 10K. WiFi's hardworking Chairman and his wife Shelley, appear to have gone underground for the time being. One might find this a bit disconcerting, because essentially Curcio is WiFi's only "employee", although Curcio would be quick to deny ever receiving any compensation from Wifi.
From all appearances, the company has simply been deserted and left to die on the vine, having already served its purpose of enriching Curcio. I would therefore advise anyone who is worried about their investment in WFWL to contact it's President, Lynn Peterson @
949.842.2572. He can also be reached at his place of employment at APT Electronics, 241 North Crescent Way,
Anaheim, CA 92801-6704 Telephone (714)687-6760
Inmarsat was recently awarded a judgment in a civil lawsuit against Gene Curcio, and Planetel. They had already been awarded a judgment in England, but this represented their efforts to have a local judgment handed down. It most likely in the $5,000,000 range. This represents the $3,000,000.00 he allegedly defrauded from Inmarsat, plus interest, that had been accruing at about $1400.00 a day.
Inmarsat also owns 1,483,051 shares of WFWL. BTW: Curcio, under oath, denied owning any WFWL stock, (at least in accounts with his name on them.) This may explain why Curcio refuses to take any steps to monetize Wifi Wireless Inc. and increase shareholder value. Inmarsat would immediately grab any stock he laid claim to, and their WFWL stock would be worth something...all that work to rip them off and Inmarsat gets their money back with interest. So Curcio continues to refuse to do anything with this company. Instead he screws the shareholders so Inmarsat does not get their money.
Curcio was even offered a chance to bring value to WFWL, but turned down a deal to have a group of revenue producing companies back into the WFWL shell. Based on the revenues of the companies, WFWL could have been a $5.00 stock.
It is obvious he has no intention of commercializing WiFi's "product", or selling it's "tech",( both of which, are obsolete and outdated) or providing a return on our investment, or most important... returning our investment. He has lied to the shareholders and continuously disseminated misinformation. He has been stringing us along for 5 years, dangling various "carrots" in front of us, but his game and our patience, has finally reached its mathematical limit.
He has raised millions of dollars from unsuspecting investors, yet WiFi has 0 employees, 0 revenues, no IP protection, no proof of concept, and stale unproven technology. He has sat idly by, while competing companies have continuously consummated deals, generated revenues, grown their businesses,and formed the Dash 7 Alliance to comply with the Dod protocol. He has not attempted to build WiFi's business, move the company forward, or increase shareholder value. He has turned down or dismissed one opportunity after another, failed to apply the capital he raised, to the company, and repeatedly issued false press releases and allegedly sold WFWL stock through alias accounts.
Wifi Wireless Inc. is nothing more than a vehicle for him to defraud innocent victims of their life savings, and a way to finance his lifestyle and perpetuate the "successful entrepreneur" facade he created. The truth is he has a track record of fraud and embezzlement dating back many years and is nothing more than a run-of-the-mill OC con man.
In fact, Eugene Curcio isn't even listed as an officer of the corporation...only Lynn Peterson and Curcio's daughter Karly are officers. Doesn't that seem odd. You have to wonder if they have been drinking the same Kool-Aid, or are they complicit with Curcio?
http://egov.sos.state.or.us/br/pkg_web_n...
WiFi Wireless Inc. continues to exist for the sole purpose of enriching Gene Curcio, and not the shareholders who invested in the company.
Stay tuned for Part Two. The real stories behind, The Curcio Group, Phone Time Resources/ Venture Partners, Crescent Communications(where's Waldo), and Avalon RF. Plus Iridium, Globalstar, and Inmarsat.