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The secular bear market started in 2000. The March 2009 rally from 666 basis the SPX, was a cyclical rally, within the secular bear market. The market is down 20% since 2000.
Well take the "tea" leaves out of your bong and read them again, because there's been a plethora of divergences on this rally. It's just a matter of time. BTW, it's this rally that's the pull back; we're still in a bear market.
C: You can form a minyan and say kaddish for the market...it's toast.
Don't forget, my wife's Asian. My in-laws go there every year, but I sure wouldn't rely on them for a current economic appraisal and future economic forecast. On the other hand, the PIMCO article and view on China appears to be objective, insightful, and not self serving.
Either way, I think you are jumping on the China bandwagon at the top of the hill, just before it goes crashing down.
C: I'm not doing this to bust your chops, but where do you get your information on China? The boys at PIMCO seem to have a slightly different view on China, than yours.
http://www.pimco.com/Pages/Complex%20Structural%20Changes%20in%20China%20and%20the%20Global%20Economy%20Spence%20April%202010.aspx
Excellent article, relevant to your discussion.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/29/opinion/29friedman.html?_r=1&th&emc=th
Nothing personal baseball fan, because I have the utmost respect for you. But were you born yesterday? What do you expect the " Cold Chain Logistics Sourcebook" to say about the state of cold chain shipping? Hardly objective and impartial!
Echoing Ceo's realistic and topical statement, as to what is actually happening, not what you would like to be happening, is the following link. R&D is the first area that is cut back at drug companies in an economic downturn, especially when R&D isn't producing tangible results in the first place. Even in a robust economy, they would rather spend the money on marketing than on R&D.
Cryoport can have all the agreements in the world, with all the shippers in the world, but if the shippers don't have the business from the CROs, then it doesn't matter. And it's only going to get worse as the economy continues to deteriorate.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE65Q3IM20100627
In my opinion, Cryoport may have missed it's window. Due to Peter Berry's managerial ineptitude and lack of vision, Cryoport is behind the developmental curve and behind the revenue growth curve. Had the company already been cash flow positive, they would have been in a much better position, to weather the next economic downturn. I'm afraid that they run the real risk of running out of money in the future because they are so far behind where they should have been. Great product, but perhaps...very bad timing.
QE2 is going to be the mother of all fades, i.e., buy-the-rumor-sell-the-fact. The rally in equities in September was due to almost $10 billion dollars a week of Fed intervention, and institutional "front-running of the fed" in anticipation of a QE2 announcement on 11/03/2010.
The more the market rallies ahead of the announcement, the more the easing is going to be priced into the market, and the harder the crash in equities that follows upon actual implementation. Bonds are going to skyrocket as well as gold, even from these lofty levels, and the dollar is going to get crushed even further.
My advice is that you sell into any strength, if you are so lucky to get any in CYRX. It may be your last chance for a very long time.
Yeah, Yeah, deflation, hyper-inflation, or both...who cares? It could be Bears vs. Jets in Super Bowl XLV!
I believe they have 45 days after the end of the quarter to release their financials.
CEO: Thanks, I get it now. The options are valued at fair value and not intrinsic value.
CEO: de facto backdating?... either for balance sheet dressing or for ls's personal tax situation?
Liquidity rebate trading has been around for a while, but they are just starting to crack down on it now.
My point is that the market has not fully priced in the current and future state of the economy due to government and central bank intervention and manipulation of the markets and monetary system, but will do so sometime in the future.
S&P is down 20% over the last ten years, adjusted for inflation it is down close to 60%. The market made a cyclical bottom in March 2009, but the secular bear market dating back to 2000 is still intact, and as I predicted on 12/31/09, the market will take out the March 2009 lows.
BTW: The market is not trading higher in September because it's pricing in a republican victory in the midterm elections. The rally has been a direct result of:
1)Almost daily Fed POMO intervention and the subsequent ramping up by the PMDs of large cap tech stocks and stock index ETFs.
2)The market pricing in the expected QE2
3)Short covering - NYSE short interest was its highest levels in over a year at 14.4 billion shares
Top Ten Reasons The Market And The Economy Are Going To Progressively Deteriorate
In the 1987 film “House Of Games”, written and directed by David Mamet, Lindsey Crouse 1/2questions-1/2 states to Joe Mantegna “a sucker is born every minute”, to which Mantegna replies, “and two to take him.” This exchange sets the stage for what is arguably one of the best films ever made about con men and deception and also, the unpredictability of human nature.
Drawn into Mantegna’s game, Crouse and the movie's viewers, become unwitting victims of Mantegna's deceit and deception, all the while thinking they are in on the game, only to find that inside every con is another one. What the viewer soon realizes, is there is an eternal gulf between the shark and the mark, between the con man and his victim. And there is a code to protect the secrets.
Not unlike the characters and viewers of Mamet’s compelling movie, the American people have been part of a very complex shell game perpetrated and perpetuated by the the banking system for many years. The chief ruse of this confidence game was convincing us to mis-allocate and over- leverage the majority of our personal wealth into homes we could not afford. They convinced us home prices never went down and always went up. And that the equity we "built up" in our homes would always provide us with a ready source of capital, and a long term retirement asset.
Unfortunately house prices like other assets in their giant Ponzi scheme, were artificially inflated by the Fed. The Fed continues to keeps interest rates artificially low by rigging the credit market. Continuing to rig the credit market without destroying stock prices means the Fed now has to artificially inflate stock prices by funding the primary dealers, with money created " ex nihilo" to buy government and mortgage backed debt so the PMDs can buy large cap tech stocks and ETFs. This unfortunately devalues our currency and raises the fear of inflation, so they manipulate the currency and precious metals markets in the Fed's own version of three-card Monte.
The barely perceptible uptick in the economy created by the economic stimulus, quantitative easing, and inventory restocking has all but disappeared. However, the Obama administration continues to try to con the American people with rhetoric about job creation and business activity. In reality unemployment remains stubbornly high and the problem is becoming structural in nature. Consumer credit continues to contract while small companies find it difficult to access new bank lines of credit. Housing activity is falling, and home values are poised for further declines as foreclosures increase. The trade balance has taken an ominous turn, with exports stagnating and imports surging.
The Fed and the Obama administration continue to apply Keynesian solutions to problems caused by Keynesian policies, failing to acknowledge that government controlled interest rates are the real cause of the boom bust cycles that have plagued our economy. Continuing to "bait and switch" the public by rigging the price of money is a solution that has failed miserably, but has made transparent Obama's real motive of replacing the free market system in favor of one controlled by the government.
Central to Mamet's theme but ignored by Obama and Bernanke, is that human nature is complex and human beings are not passive non-adaptive subjects. When money is too cheap or too available, you cannot count on individuals to invest wisely or frugally. And when confronted with the extreme trauma of the near total destruction of one’s wealth, you cannot count on individuals to re-inflate the economy with continued deficit spending.
Admittedly, Obama and Bernanke did not cause the problem that is before us today. However, they continue to "do the same thing over and over again expecting different results." As Albert Einstein said, this is the definition of insanity and the primary reason why the market is headed lower and the economy is going to continue to deteriorate for the unforeseeable future.
And ten more reasons why...
10) Continued Credit Squeeze- 2 years after the 2008 bailout, the economy continues to struggle with a lack of credit. Credit (or debt) is issued by banks and is the source of virtually all money today. When credit is not available, there is insufficient money to buy goods or pay salaries, so workers get laid off and businesses shut down, in a vicious spiral of debt and depression. Even though liquidity was added to the banking system with QE1, banks did not provide loans, choosing instead to take advantage of a steep yield curve and play the carry trade. They continue to avoid risk and perpetuate this practice to date. In addition, the central banks’ “central bank”, the BIS, recently raised Tier 1 capital requirements for commercial banks. The banks most affected by this decision are the banks that lend to small businesses thereby stifling bank lending even more.
9) Lack of Consumer Spending/ Housing Market / Destruction of Wealth - 66% of Americans own their own home. But for +90% of them, their house is also their largest financial asset. House prices therefore drive a lot of the majority of Americans’ “wealth effect’ – the portion of their spending that is driven by how well-off they feel rather than how much they make. It is estimated that there is 2 year inventory build up of homes which indicates that home prices have further to fall. Additionally, their 401ks and pension plans have been decimated leaving most Americans with only a fraction of their former net worth.
8)Slowdown in Industrial Activity- Key indicators (differences between indexes of new orders and inventories in various surveys, including the ISM’s) point to a significant deceleration in the near term.
7)Structural Unemployment/Labor Weakness- In past recessions employment bounced back rather quickly, signaling a recovery. This recession is glaringly different due to a structural change in the kind of worker. There is a shortage of skilled workers and a glut of unskilled workers, which will inhibit recovery.
6) Inflation-Deflation Hybrid or Disinflation/Deflation- Not a threat? How come the Fed keeps printing money and the money supply isn’t growing and the velocity of money isn’t picking up? One possible reason is the gradual disintegration of the shadow banking system which was at one time larger than than traditional bank liabilities, but is collapsing at a rate of $4 trillion a year annualized rate. The amount of leverage used and the opacity of the various transactions involved this unregulated industry, surely contributed to the financial crisis, but also provided a source of liquidity that is obviously missing today.
5) Secular Bear Cycle - The markets and the economy are still in a secular bear market that began in 2000. Secular bear markets can last up to 15 years and we have not seen a sufficient capitulation statistically or in sentiment that would indicate a secular bottom.
4) Polarized Government- We are experiencing a period in history where the two major political parties have never been more polarized, which totally prevents effective economic policy making. Not to mention the fact, the President and what’s left of his economic advisers don’t have a clue as to how to solve the problem.
3) Regulatory/Taxation Overhang- Business owners don’t know how much Obamacare will cost them, and along with financial services regulatory reform, CEOs don’t know what the future holds for their ability to access capital and wwhat their labor cost structures will be like. Higher taxes for the already overburdened, indebted consumer, woulalso restrict consumer spending.
2) Global Problem: Industrialized and Emerging Economies- China’s private sector debt is as bad as ours and their housing has become unaffordable which may be leading to a bubble of their own. While Beijing is implementing additional structural changes to reorient its economy toward domestic consumption, the pace remains measured; and will do little to help sustainably rebalance the global economy. Debt solvency in some eurozone countries (Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain) remain high.
1) Debt /Deficit Spending - The balance sheets of Americans, states, municipalities, federal government, much of the euro zone, corporate defined- benefit pension plans, et.al. are in various stages of near insolvency.
Total U.S debt is now $13.6 trillion with publicly traded debt running at $8.5 trillion, but estimated to grow to $14 trillion by 2015. Interest on this debt would be app. $1 trillion. Revenues in 2009 were app. $2.1 trillion. If they were to grow by 50% to $3 trillion by 2015 then, the interest payment on the 2015 debt would be 30% of 2015 revenues.
CEO: Perhaps it's a bullish sign...timing the options grant to precede good news, or perhaps it was just advantageously timed for tax purposes.
Not all traffic is equal. Big boosts in traffic don't always lead to big boosts in sales. I was on Aston Martin's website yesterday-doesn't mean I'm going to buy a DB9 anytime soon.
A quote from the CEO of Wal-Mart:
I don't need to tell you that our customer remains challenged…You need not go farther than one of our stores on midnight at the end of the month. And it's real interesting to watch, about 11 p.m. customers start to come in and shop, fill their grocery basket with basic items – baby formula, milk, bread, eggs – and continue to shop and mill about the store until midnight when government electronic benefits cards get activated, and then the checkout starts and occurs. And our sales for those first few hours on the first of the month are substantially and significantly higher.
Welcome to the modern day bread line...
And that POS who is impersonating the President of the United States would like you to believe the economy is recovering.
LJT: Sorry, I am unable to make it to the conference...wish I could accommodate.
SO, HE WASN'T THE BEST CHOICE FOR MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL, BUT HE HAS THIS ONE RIGHT!
For those of you who don't like Dennis Miller, who is not Jewish, you may want to reconsider after reading his brilliant comments that follow. For those who don't know, Dennis Miller is a comedian who had a show called Dennis Miller Live on HBO. Although he is not Jewish, he recently had the following to say about the Middle East situation:
'A brief overview of the situation is always valuable, so as a service to all Americans who still don't get it, I now offer you the story of the Middle East in just a few paragraphs, which is all you really need.
Here we go:
The Palestinians want their own country. There's just one thing about that: there are no Palestinians. It's a made up word. Israel was called Palestine for two thousand years. Like 'Wiccan,' 'Palestinian' sounds ancient but is really a modern invention. Before the Israelis won the land in the 1967 war, Gaza was Owned by Egypt , the West Bank was owned by Jordan, and there were no 'Palestinians.'
As soon as the Jews took over and started growing oranges as big as basketballs, what do you know, say hello to the 'Palestinians,' weeping for their deep bond with their lost 'land' and 'nation.'
So for the sake of honesty, let's not use the word ' Palestinian' any more to describe these delightful folks, who dance for joy at our deaths until someone points out they're being taped. Instead, let's call them what they are: 'Other Arabs Who Can't Accomplish Anything In Life And Would Rather Wrap Themselves In The Seductive Melodrama Of Eternal Struggle And Death.' I know that's a bit unwieldy to expect to see on CNN. How about this, then:
'Adjacent Jew-Haters.' Okay, so the Adjacent Jew-Haters want their own country. Oops, just one more thing: No, they don't. They could have had their own country. Any time in the last thirty years, especially several years ago at Camp David . But If you have your own country, you have to have traffic lights and garbage trucks. And Chambers of Commerce, and, worse, you actually have to figure out some way to make a living.
That's no fun. No, they want what all the other Jew-Haters in the region want: Israel. They also want a big pile of dead Jews, of course --that's where the real fun is -- but mostly they want Israel .
Why? For one thing, trying to destroy Israel - or 'The Zionist Entity' as their textbooks call it -- for the last fifty years has allowed the rulers of Arab Countries to divert the attention of their own people away from the fact that they're the blue-ribbon most illiterate, poorest, and tribally backward on God's Earth, and if you've ever been around God's Earth, you know that's really saying something.
It makes me roll my eyes every time one of our pundits waxes poetic about the great history and culture of the Muslim Mid-East. Unless I'm missing something, the Arabs haven't given anything to the world since Algebra, and, by the way, thanks a hell of a lot for that one.
Chew this around and spit it out: Five hundred million Arabs; five Million Jews. Think of all the Arab countries as a football field, and Israel as a pack of matches sitting in the middle of it. And now these same folksswear that if Israel gives them half of that pack of matches, everyone will be pals.
Really? Wow, what neat news. Hey, but what about the string of wars to obliterate the tiny country and the constant din of rabid blood oaths to drive very Jew into the sea? Oh, that? We were just kidding.
My friend, Kevin Rooney, made a gorgeous point the other day: just reverse the numbers. Imagine five hundred million Jews and five million Arabs. I was stunned at the simple brilliance of it. Can anyone picture the Jews strapping belts of razor blades and dynamite to themselves? Of course not. Or marshalling every fiber and force at their disposal for generations to drive a tiny Arab State into the sea? Nonsense. Or dancing for joy at the murder of innocents? Impossible. Or spreading and believing horrible lies about the Arabs baking their bread with the blood of children? Disgusting.
No, as you know, left to themselves in a world of peace, the worst Jews would ever do to people is debate them to death.
However, in any big-picture strategy, there's always a danger of losing moral weight. We've already lost some. After September 11th our president told us and the world he was going to root out all terrorists and the countries that supported them. Beautiful. Then the Israelis, after months and months of having the equivalent of an Oklahoma City every week (and then every day) start to do the same thing we did, and we tell them to show restraint.
If America were being attacked with an Oklahoma City every day, we would all very shortly be screaming for the administration to just be done with it and kill everything south of the Mediterranean and east of the Jordan.
Stockdood...Obama Turns Focus to Trade as Way to Encourage Economic Growth
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-16/obama-turns-focus-to-trade-as-way-to-encourage-economic-growth.html
FedEx Forecast Trails Estimates; 1,700 Jobs to Be Cut
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-16/fedex-posts-profit-that-trails-estimate-announces-plan-to-cut-1-700-jobs.html
I wouldn't be surprised if the Fed was complicit and is buying gold. They are concerned about deflation and have been printing money as fast as they can, but inflation is not happening, and consumers continue to save and not spend money.
But if gold were to go up, the dollar would devalue versus gold. If gold goes to $2000, the dollar is depreciated by almost 50%. If the consumer becomes afraid that his purchasing power is diminishing, then perhaps he will go out and start spending while his money is still worth something. Or at least, that might be what the Fed is thinking.
If so, gold goes even higher, and the dollar gets trashed.
And this one is for you...
It is beyond a joke now: ICI's latest data discloses that in the week ended September 8, domestic funds saw outflows of $2.2 billion, following last week's massive $7.7 billion. And yes, ETFs experienced outflows as well. So far September has experienced nearly $10 billion in outflows, even as the market has ramped by over 6%. Who is buying this shit? Just ask The New York Fed and Citadel: they may have a few pointers (wink wink). This is the 19th sequential outflow from US stocks, and amounts to $65 billion in redemptions for the year. With the market pretty much unchanged YTD, it means that mutual funds can not resort to capital appreciation as a substitute to outflows, and most are on their last breath (Janus: blink twice if you are still alive please). The kicker: the S&P is at the level it was when the outflows began back during the flash crash. If that doesn't restore all your confidence that Uncle Sam will be so good at managing the market (just like he has done with everything else), nothing else will. Throw in a little HFT, a little subpennying, a little Flash trading, a little DMA trading, a little quote stuffing, a little hedge fund clubbing, a little specialist front running, a little daily flash crash in big caps like Nucor Steel, and you can see why next week we will most certainly have our first inflow in 20 weeks. Or not. It doesn't matter. Nobody that is made of carbon, or who doesn't already have direct access to the Fed for zero cost funding, is trading stocks anymore.
Personally, I am very interested in what you have to say. It gets pretty lonely up here, in the ivory tower ( not to mention the occasional nose bleeds and draw-downs), so I would miss your posts if they were to disappear.
BTW: You got me going... who's the evil seller, pray-tell?
The problem is they are all Keynesians. They think they can simply throw money at the economy and make it grow, and they expect an already bankrupt or debt-ridden consumer to re-inflate the economy.
dwalrus: That is exactly what is happening. There is so much interference by the Government and the Fed that the markets have become distorted. The result is that people are afraid to allocate money to the markets because they can't get good information from the markets. And the more the government and the Fed meddles, the more money will flow out of the market and flow into less risky assets( bonds, gold, commodities), or just sit on the sidelines.
I'm assuming you are either referring to David Kosten or Jim ONeil, but in either instance, I would have to hear under what context they made that statement. In other words, was he referring to economic (macro/micro) fundamentals or individual company fundamentals, because there is big difference in their respective implications.
But as a general rule Goldman, Pimco, and others of their ilk are always going to talk their positions, so I take whatever they say with a grain of salt. Additionally, Goldman is arguably the largest private manipulator of the markets, so of course they are going to say that it's fundamentals, and not their HFTs and bots that drive the markets.
Both numbers 1&2 are plausible scenarios, but it still boils down to, if someone thinks the price is going higher, why are they selling here?
Now here's the fascinating thing about #3 and what's left of the markets in general, and you don't have to take my word for it, because it's backed up by some very interesting statistics.
First, on the macro level, the average 52 week correlation with the S&P 500 for the following asset classes: average 10yr yield, 2yr yield, CRB Index, Crude Oil, Gold, and Dollar Index is now 60%. It was below 0% as late as 2007. These are completely different asset classes with completely different cash flow streams, that are now approaching positive correlation.
Moving on to domestic equities the trailing one month cross-sectional correlation for the largest 1,000 stocks averaged roughly 20% for the last half of the 20th century, which makes perfect sense, because the 80% variance in prices is of course, explained by the different fundamental factors within each sector, industry, and individual company. However, the implied correlation has now skyrocketed to close to 80%.
In other words, as the correlation gets closer to 100%, sectors, industries, even individual company fundamentals, take on less and less meaning.
The implications of this are:
#1 the market is a HFT-ETF- Algo driven cluster and not the price-discovery-capital-formation market for financial assets it once was.
#2 the markets are essentially a single asset, (or at least trades like one), so it really doesn't matter what sector or what exchange a company's stock is listed on
#3 the market comes with a built in put option guaranteed by the fed and underwritten by the federal government, i.e, QE1 and possibly QE2.
What it means:
Economy: price signals(fundamentals) have become distorted resulting in capital to be inefficiently allocated
Markets: the financial environment has become riskier than ever
Result: The farther prices get away from their mean and the further they are pushed away from their underlying value, the greater the adjustment will be.
Ever wonder if you're getting played? Ever wonder who is on the sell side of all the recent transactions in CYRX, which was down 12.5%, on big volume, on "good" news.
According to Bloomberg, for the week ended September 10, corporate insiders bought $0.5MM in shares in 4 different companies. This was offset by sales of $332MM in 72 different companies, a ratio of 651 sellers to buyers. At least companies are making their opinions known on the viability of the latest bear market rally. Still think it's a contrarian play?
* SPY accounted for over 10% of the total domestic principal traded.
* The cumulative volume of the top twenty equities, sorted by average daily principal traded, represent over 26% of domestic principal traded.
* Once you reach just the 112th ranked symbol, you have accounted for over half of a day’s volume.
* The first 1,029 names account for a full 90% of all volume.
* The remaining 17,349 equities* account for the remaining 10% of all dollars traded.
Where do you think CYRX is in the above groups?
The retail trade is out of the market, as are the hedge funds, mutual funds, and the pension funds are next to go. All that is left are the indexers and automated traders, and the concentration of stocks they are trading is getting smaller and smaller.
In essence, what's left of the equities markets, is solely a vehicle for technical traders and robots. It has ceased to function as reliable mechanism for price discovery and is decreasing in importance and functionality as tool for capital formation.
The markets are trading purely on technicals and not on the fundamentals, because there are no fundamental traders remaining in the market. So if you are waiting for the market to reflect CYRX's robust fundamentals if they ever get any, you'll be waiting a very long time.
And I have 4 questions for you, all of them a bit more relevant to the Cryoport discussion.
1) Why did you promote and tout CYRX to this board, as you simultaneously sold out the bulk of your position at $8.50?
2) Why did you neglect to inform the board of this fact?
3) Why have you continued to promote the virtues of Cryoport all the way down, when you had already liquidated the majority, if not all, of your position?
4) Is it just easier for you to question someone else's principles, than to live up to them yourself?
COLD: You can't have it both ways. CYRX might out-perform the overall market, which means it might only take a 30% haircut instead of 50%, but SP isn't going to out-perform to the point of appreciating, if the market gets crushed again.
Even AAPL lost 60% of it's market cap during the last collapse. Not to say that CYRX is currently held by institutions that are going to be liquidating the stock, but they won't be buying it either.
Nice try, but your little self-righteous, indignant, martyr act doesn't fly with me.
I think you conveniently forgot, that I took the time to write a rather detailed letter to Stambaugh, with 10 suggestions for improving Cryoport's business model.
So, while I am critical of management, and realistic about the economy, the market, and the probability of survival for start-ups, I have actually tried to do something constructive for the cause.
BTW: Don't give up your day job as captain of the Cryoport cheer-leading squad, quite yet. You're as equally inept as a psychoanalyst, as you are as a stock analyst.
Yeah, in normal times “smart money” could play the contrarian and fade an overwhelmingly lopsided sentiment, and catch a bottom or top, or a contra-trend move. That set-up may appear to be the case for CYRX, and for the broader market also, but it's far from the case.
What you fail to take into consideration is for a stock to go up there has to be someone to buy the stock, and for a company to generate and grow revenues, there has to be a need and demand for the company's product, no matter who is shipping and promoting the product. In other words, you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink.
You just witnessed the biggest short-term equity-return-upswing in history on the smallest net amount of positive inflows...also in history.
That tells me 2 things:
1) Investors are out of the market; smart money and dumb money. In the week ended September 1, domestic equity mutual funds saw a near record $9.5 billion in outflows: the biggest one week outflow in 2010 since the $13.4 billion redeemed in the Flash Crash week. First mutual funds, then ETFs, then Hedge Funds. Bloomberg reports that the smartest of the smart money have posted an outflow of $2.9 billion in July, or 0.2% of total assets: the most since January, based on TrimTabs research. "July's number follows an outflow of $2.7 billion in June. More startling is the fact that the market now has a 5 to 1 ratio of HFT to retail participation.
2)The rally is engineered. It is built on nothing but momentum and QE. Goldman and other primary dealers are using billions of brand new printed money, courtesy of the Fed's permanent open market operations to chase whatever stocks they can find. And the administration is making sure that the (pre-election) government data that is released, is positive and facilitates this pursuit.
Which leads us to the inevitable reality...
INVESTORS ARE OUT OF THE EQUITIES MARKET, AND THEY ARE NOT RETURNING ANYTIME SOON!!!
Which means...
There isn’t going to be anyone to buy this stock, especially the kind of investors that can drive share price higher after all the past and yet-to-be dilutions, as evidenced by the paltry rally on the DHL news.
The economy is not recovering. Even the Fed admitted it in it's last Redbook; "Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggested continued growth in national economic activity during the reporting period of mid-July through the end of August, but with widespread signs of a deceleration compared with preceding periods."
* Wages and salaries are still down 3.7% from the prior peak;
* Corporate profits are still down 20% from the peak;
* Real GDP is still down 1.3% from the peak;
* Industrial production is still down 7.2% from the peak;
* Employment is still down 5.5% from the peak;
* Retail sales are still down 4.5% from the peak;
* Manufacturing orders are still down 22.1% from the peak;
* Manufacturing shipments are still down 12.5% from the peak;
* Exports are still down 9.2% from the peak;
* Housing starts are still down 63.5% from the peak;
* New home sales are still down 68.9% from the peak;
* Existing home sales are still down 41.2% from the peak;
* Non-residential construction is still down 35.7% from the
peak
And for those who like to cull obscure headlines from mainstream publications, comes 2 very interesting quotes from the WSJ.
“Campbell Soup Co.'s fiscal fourth quarter profit jumped 64%, helped by cost cuts, but the food maker posted weaker sales as its soups battle competition from cheaper meals and lower consumer outlays on groceries.” BTW, this is what happens during deflationary times and depressions. You add a lot more water to the tomato soup. Or you trade down to the no-name brands and hope your kids don’t notice.
More relevant to the issue at hand, is this quote; “Like other drug retailers, Walgreen’s pharmacy department has faced profit pressure, with consumers cutting back on doctor’s visits, opting for generic drugs and buying medications in bulk.” Soup is one thing, but when people start cutting back on their meds, you know things are bad.
These examples are indicative of the extreme austerity measures people are taking, which are are only going to get worse. Try growing a struggling company under those conditions.
DWarus; Don't worry; you have a perfectly good reason to be critical of Cryoport's management.
As always, Cryoport's judgment is impaired by his own unique blend of "hopium", naivete...and whatever his personal agenda may be.
Just when I thought I have read it all, along comes his most ridiculousness statements to date. Very inspirational and positive, but as dead wrong, as all the other consistently "dead wrongs" he's managed to register over the last 5 years.
Funny how certain people on this board question my motives for posting, when all my caveats have come to startling fruition, and not one of Cryoport's has even come close to being grounded in reality. But people would rather hear what they want to hear, and cling to false hope, then face the truth.
We both know it's not the end-of-the-world that is coming, but it is going to get real ugly, especially for equities. The market and the economy are headed lower, and they are going to drag Cryoport down along for the ride. If Cryoport doesn't go under, it will have to conduct another financing, and everyone will be diluted even further. The company will NEVER do well enough for the older investors to get out from under the financing/dilution cycle.
Cryoport has been dead wrong for 5 years, but he need not worry, because CYRX will probably not be around for another 5.
Investors can choose to do whatever they wish, but consider who's been right, and who's been wrong.
And I thought my posts bordered on being rambling, incoherent, delusional, and paranoid.
I'll just let my posts speak for themselves, as yours do.
bull, I'm sorry,
but have you ever contributed anything, positive or negative, to this board?
So, who the hell are you, to tell me to stop posting?
Non-shareholder is a very relative term. On-again, off-again shareholder would be much more descriptive. I've been in and out of this stock quite a few times, and have done very well. It's a very easy read. That's why I have a special affinity for this stock.
Traders are a very superstitious lot, and when they find something that works, they have a tendency to stick with it. No, I did not get stuck in CYRX. I was fortunate enough to get let out of my last position, by investors that were trying to "price" the offering.
I do not espouse the avoidance of risk; I promote risk management. That not only means, limiting your losses and letting you profits run, but includes position sizing or capital allocation sizing. The riskier the investment, the smaller the amount of capital allocated. I try to adhere to the 5% rule on any one investment. This way you need a "perfect storm" to get wiped out.
There is nothing wrong in taking a shot on Cryoport, if you are only investing 5% of you available investment capital. But to invest any more would be foolish , IMO.
BTW: The blog is for fun...thought discipline might enjoy it. I am not trying to monetize it.
Inconsistent and manipulative? You must be talking about Stambaugh.
Failing to answer tough questions ? Ask me an intelligent question, and I’ll always respond.
At best, Cryoport has just turned on the ignition of it’s heavily financed car, looked in the rear view mirror, and began to pull out of it’s parking spot. To say that it has rounded the corner, because of an uptick in sales for one quarter, is absurd. Especially, when that uptick was from a previously negligible level of sales. Not too difficult to improve on almost zero!
Either way, it’s a moot point. There is no one around to buy the stock. Investors realize that even at these levels, there is a disconnect between stock valuations and economic reality. Capital is flowing out of the market, as evidenced by large mutual fund redemptions, hedge fund closings, early withdrawals from retirement plans, and the rallies in treasuries and gold.
Investment banking firms have essentially morphed into trading houses, that front run and manipulate the markets through algorithmic and high frequency trading. Neither the “smart” money nor the “dumb” money is currently in the market, which is virtually an unprecedented event, and does not auger well for the future.
For someone who has traded the market every day for 40 years, I can feel the difference in the way the market trades and behaves. There is an ongoing deterioration in the markets structure that I can actually sense and feel, and that shows no signs of abating anytime soon.
Equities are being shunned for a reason; they're no good. So even if my some miracle, Cryoport would be able to generate and grow revenues, it simply won't matter.
Discipline:
Thanks for the props.
Whatever, happened to performance based compensation? Apparently, Fed Chairman, Congressman, and President, aren't the only jobs where you can earn an exorbitant amount of money for producing negative results. It's a rigged game out there, and the American taxpayer and investor are helpless victims. It's really not any different than getting mugged in the streets.
From my blog (http://tradestrongmanagement.blogspot.com/), published Sunday afternoon.
Weekend at Bernanke’s 2
A pair of losers try to pretend that their murdered employer is really alive, but the murderer is out to "finish him off”. No, the losers are not Andrew McCarthy and Jonathon Silverman; they are Ben Bernanke and Barak Obama. And it’s not a corpse they are propping up, but a lifeless and morbid economy that is about to finish off the markets and what’s left of America’s wealth.
The original “Bernie “ film, although premised on a ludicrous story line, was actually rather funny and a box office success. As with Bernie 1, QE1 was rather "successful". It created artificially low interest rates and along with the fiscal stimulus, it enabled and forced capital to flow toward riskier assets. With risk mitigated by an acknowledged Fed put and a low yield environment that offered minimal returns on safer assets, the market responded with a 83% rally in the SPX off the March 2009 lows.
However, QE2 the sequel, appears destined for box office failure. While the original “solution” may have propped up the market the first time around, investors don’t seem to be buying into the story this time around. In spite of record low yields in the bond market, investors are staying away from risky assets, and are hunkered down in the perceived safety of treasuries, commodities, and gold.
Investors realize the current “recovery” is unsustainable. While the U.S. and the rest of the world markets have experienced a bounce, industrial countries remain below pre-crisis levels of GDP, wealth, and employment. The bounce has not translated into the type of job creation and corporate investment, we would normally see during an economic recovery.
The U.S. economy is still experiencing low to medium growth, and deteriorated public finances, and is now going to be facing greater government regulation and higher taxes. Consumer confidence is abysmal along with the the housing market, and the money supply continues to shrink, leaving both the domestic and global economies vulnerable to more financial instability.
It is under this context that the market rallied Friday, following Dr. Bernanke’s speech in Jackson Hole. However, there are a confluence of technical indicators that suggest this rally may be as short lived as all the other rally attempts of late.
There is a downside gap overhead in the SPX that is filled at 1067.08, along with the 9MA at that same level, which provides the closest level of resistance, and a multitude of other factors that lead to a high probability of the market trading lower, which Rennie Yang discusses on his “ Market Tells” site. I am planning on coverings my longs from Friday afternoon at 1073.25 against the R1 pivot on Sunday evening, and waiting to reassess the market tomorrow morning.
No, you are just in touch with reality. Yes, CYRX has rounded the corner, but unfortunately there was an open manhole, and it fell headfirst into the hole.
Cryoport and especially R&R has done absolutely nothing, to support the SP post-offering. Rodman has never taken any stock. All they do is stay off the bid and move away when there is any chance their bid might get hit.
If they won't buy the stock, that tells you something, not the other ludicrous nonsense that is posted.