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"I love math" - Is StockDude really John Nash?
You've been watching Suze Orman, haven't you?
dwally: Yes, the equity markets were pretty strong today, but they were also strong right before the s++t hit the fan, when the sub-prime/CDS bubble burst. Just because the financial markets and investors are choosing to ignore what is inevitable (once again), for a little while longer, doesn’t mean the end game is not imminent.
Every day that markets rally based on China no longer hiking or Ireland being bailed out, gives you a better level to get short. For the S&P futures 1,204/1,213 is the area where you want to take a shot at fading this bounce. If that resistance zone is bypassed you can choose to play the melt up again, although it won’t be like September and October, because QE2 has been largely priced in, and they aren't front-running the POMOs anymore.
Nevertheless, you just don’t want to fight the Fed above that level. Keep your powder dry and wait for events to play out; geopolitical/macro-economic events take time to develop before their effects are finally felt.
Now I am assured the top is in place and the game is over. Stockdude has decided it's time to get on the China/Emerging Countries bandwagon. What he doesn't understand is the Chinese economic miracle is just another bubble, facilitated by massive, and unsustainable stimuli from the Chinese government.
What he and C-Port don't get is that the emerging economies are extremely immature and hence incredibly vulnerable to credit shocks and uncontrollable inflation. The growth they have experienced over the last 3 years is unsustainable because it has been artificially created by government stimuli and has grown way beyond natural export and domestic demand.
It's all unfolding before our eyes. In the past several weeks the data and government actions out of China, the renewed rising in U.S. interest rates as a result of Bernanke's emphatic commitment to an ill conceived QE2, and renewed economic stresses in the EU, are currently pushing the global economy to the brink of another economic collapse.
And now, as is evident by the flight to safety to the U.S. dollar, and growing evidence that China will soon try and effect price controls in addition to raising interest rates and significantly changing the rules for their vast network of Local Government Funding Vehicles (LGFVs); the writing is on the wall. The game is over.
You should be short every asset class other than the U.S.dollar. QE2 is the catalyst that has precipitated what will undoubtedly be a negative feedback loop of historic proportions.
Anyone with half a brain should take the their tax loss, and sell their position in CYRX, and buy puts in anything but the dollar. They will make all their money back, that they lost in CYRX, and then some.
I agree. As soon as Rodman moves out of the way...whoosh.
O: Like I stated previously...you're delirious. I have been self-employed for 35 years, and retired for the last seven. The only thing I've been shorting lately, are the S&P, and the 30year(until today)...and it's all futures and options on futures. I haven't owned any stock for quite some time...the market is in the process of taking a 50% haircut.
dwalrus: Bernanke's intentions were to prevent a Japan style deflation, and to force investor's out of treasuries into riskier assets, i.e., the equity market. He hoped this would in turn, create a wealth effect resulting in more consumer spending, and a reflating of the economy.
The econmic problems he is trying to solve however, are a deficit problem, risk/price instability problem, and unemployment problem. You don't solve these problems by debasing the dollar, incurring more debt, fostering more risk taking and price instability, and forcing investment overseas.
Investors. in anticipation of QE2 front-ran the Fed, and bought treasuries, gold, commodities, and equities (in Sept & Oct.) while they sold the dollar.
After QE2, investors took profits as the Fed began purchasing treasuries. The result has been rising interest rates, a flight to the dollar, and falling commodity and energy, and equity prices.
If this asset deflation continues, inflation is not going to be the problem, but exactly what Bernanke was trying to prevent, will be the problem...deflation, continued trade deficits, and continued unemployment.
dwalrus: busy trading....will get you after the close, but I think you seem to get it - it's bernanke that doesn't get it
BBF: Your explanation was fine. Omphalos is absolutely delirious. The short interest was never more than 2% of the outstanding shares, which wouldn't even pique the interest of the SEC, nevertheless incur the kind of attention and reproach he referred to.
10 years in development kind of disqualifies Cryoport from entitlement to the nomenclature of "start-up", and I would consider submerging stock, as a much more appropriate description of CYRX than emerging.
Unfortunately, your betting on Cryoport being the next home run, isn't going to make much of a difference. Without institutional participation, CYRX stands about as much of a chance of trading higher, as the CUBS probability of winning the World Series in 2011.
And unfortunately once again, we all know that institutional fund managers look at certain performance metrics of a company, before they purchase a prospective company's stock for their fund, i.e., revenue, EBITDA, etc. How else can they come up with a valuation for the company , and determine if the SP is overvalued or undervalued?
A good story from the mouth of the CEO or the IR/PR person, might be good enough for you, but it ain't gonna cut it for a professional fund manager.
CYRX will be trading between $0.40 and $0.50 by the end of the year.
The stock price is not depressed...it's trading at 20X revenues. If anything it is way above fair value. It should be trading in the $0.40s. The only thing that is depressed are the company's revenue growth, and the shareholders.
We have incurred losses since inception and had an accumulated deficit of $48,782,434 through September 30, 2010.
Ooopa!!!
6 years, $50,000,000 invested and the Cryoport has a run rate of app. $500,000.00 in annual revenues...s/b $25,000,000.00 at this stage of it's development. But what do the founders and seed investors care, they already had their liquidity event and cashed out?
SP is already rich relative to revenues, that kind of dilution should give you about a 0.42 cent stock.
It's never been the intentions of CYRX to grab market share domestically, the product was never intended for that. The company stated publicly on their web site, the BRIC nations is where the attention is focused. Look at following link below the 2nd paragraph, nothing is shipped domestically. Two little dots in California.
Your quote is not only an complete distortion of the facts, it's patently false.
From the Cryoport website:
The needs that the CryoPort Express® Shipper provides include:
* Distribute small to medium volumes of life materials nationally (US) and internationally
The map that is displayed on The Cryoport website simply shows where they have a global presence. There is no mention made that the BRIC countries is the market they are targeting or that the majority of their "revenue" is derived from those countries.
Focus on the Market
* Focus on needs of our customers and freight carrier partners
* Get out into the market and listen, observe and learn
* Possess a global view
This doesn't mean that the international market is their primary focus, it means they are not limiting their target market to just the U.S., but are targeting the international market as well.
Cryoport hasn't been able to grab market share domestically. Don't put too much hope on Cryoport grabbing market share internationally. India is arguably the most difficult place in the world for a foreigner to conduct business or grab market share for a myriad of reasons; language, corruption, cultural differences, chauvinism, and xenophobia, to name a few. China presents the same problems and it doesn't matter if a company like FedEx is doing their bidding, just look at Google.
DEADLINE for 10-Q: for Quarterly Period Ended 09/30/10 due Monday, November 15, 2010
Assume there is another economic collapse, or just a gradual economic deterioration and slightly negative to zero growth, or the status quo of barely perceptible slow growth is maintained. Do really believe Cryoport is immune from the effects of any of these scenarios?
I honestly believe you know the answer to your own question, but you choose to deny it. If not, ask dwalrus or ceo...they get it.
Things aren't always what they appear to be.
GDP +2.0%
Change in inventories: +1.44%
Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 0.6 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 0.9 percent in the second.
Reality Check: Economy is barely holding on.
excellent answer!
C: Below is a link to a Bill Gross article. It's not one of his best articles, but is compelling nevertheless, not because of what it says, but because of the implication of what he says and why he says it.
http://www.pimco.com/Pages/RunTurkeyRun.aspx
What Bill Gross did in this letter is to create the ultimate hedge for himself. He didn’t say these things earlier when they were just as true as they are today and certainly must have been clear to someone of his intelligence. He said it now. He said it now because he can see the writing on the wall. The important thing is not that he ultimately defends what the Fed is doing (which he unfortunately does) but that he felt the need to hedge himself and distance himself from the system.
What that article tells me, is that things may be far worse than I had ever imagined.
I like the concept...very creative. However, Cryoport's product is not targeted at the consumer.
Cryoport's shipper is a B2B product and it's marketing strategy has to be tailored to a commercial end user and not a consumer end user.
It's more important to emphasize the differentiated value proposition than to make an emotional appeal about the product. With a B2B product it's more about cost benefit and bottom line than anything else. Cryoport's customers need to be convinced there is going to be an adequate return-on-investment to justify switching to the Express Shipper.
Today, ICI reported the 25th outflow in a row. Total YTD money redeemed is now $81 billion. From the market bottom in July, all the way to the current 2010 highs, the market has seen $51 billion in 16 sequential outflows. So to recap: mutual funds are not buying, pensions are not buying, retail is no longer even remotely interested in touching stocks...the Fed can prop the market up for only so long...and then splatt.
Now that I think about it, AQR might very well be your naked short seller. If the warrants were trading below fair value in their models, then then their algos might have been shorting the stock against the warrants .
Sorry to burst your bubble, but AQR owns CYRX common stock along with the attendant warrants in their Diversified Arbitrage Fund, which is not a growth or value fund, but as the name implies...an arbitrage fund.
In this particular case they are attempting to "take advantage of inefficiencies in the prices at which different classes of a publicly traded company's stock are trading" This is commonly referred to as "dual-class arbitrage".
There is no consideration given to the valuation of the underlying security (present or future), except as to it's relative value to the derivative security. They are simply taking advantage of any mis-pricing in one security or the other. They do this by buying by one security and selling the other when the pricing is out-of-line, and then wait for them to converge.
My previous statement stands, and is correct. The company does not have earnings, but they do have some revenue. Companies that are relatively new in a high-growth industry are often valued off of their revenue. Revenue-based valuations are assessed using the price/sales ratio.
What do you think fund managers base their decisions on? They have certain metrics they look at, before making a decision. Especially with new companies , they are often priced on multiples of revenues.
A good story will only get you so far.
Forget about SP if you want to get an idea of Cryoport's valuation. It doesn't really matter if CYRX trades at 0.20 cents or $1.20. The very notion of "current market price" is an illusion. It doesn't exist. It's a total farce, always has been, always will be.
You need to know what the last quarter's revenues were - plain and simple. I don't think you would be too pleased with the company's valuation, if you used the past 12 months trailing revenues that are currently available.
Hopefully, there has been some revenue growth and subsequently a higher valuation would be justified. It would have to be quite a jump however, for the company's stock to be considered a value play for an institutional investor.
Even at $1,000,000 in trailing revenues, Cryoport would have a price/sales ratio of app. 15-1. Value investors are looking for companies with a PSR of 1.00 or below, as an indicator of value, and you can pretty much forget about CYRX being considered a growth play, at this point in the company's development.
Gentleman? Politeness is the ultimate hypocrisy. The problem with the majority your posts, is that you don't even get the facts right, before you distort them. Your knowledge and perspective of the markets are anachronistic, and contextually incorrect. But, that's what happens when your thoughts and ideas are cut and pasted.
BTW: You are much better suited to debating dwalrus, although I honestly believe he would smoke you in any discussion of the economy or markets.
Hardly...the short interest is 2.5% of the outstanding shares, which is a relatively negligible amount in terms of having a negative effect on share price. I have seen short interests that were actually larger than the total outstanding shares. LTV comes to mind, where the short interest was 140% of the outstanding shares.
I will pray for you...
If they were generating those kind of sales, why is SP so soft? Believe me, they wouldn't be keeping news like that a secret.
$00.40 is much more probable...
That's the first intelligent and honest statement you ever made on this board.
Today is the day the Fed will likely overtake Japan as the second largest holder of US Treasurys. Recall that Japanese holdings of US paper were $821 billion as of July. Well, as of September 30, the Fed held $811.7 billion in Treasurys, and in the days following, there were two POMOs: one for $5.2 billion and one for $2.2 billion, bringing its total to $819.1 billion. Which means that if today's POMO operation, which launches imminently, is larger than $2 billion, the Fed will become the second largest holder of US paper in the world. And it won't stop there: China is merely $25 billion away. At a run rate of $10 billion in POMO purchases per week, the Fed will be the largest holder of US Treasuries in the world before the midterm elections.
My hand is in a loose fist, thumb facing up, like I was holding an imaginary carrot, and it is slowly moving vertically...up and down.
Without looking at the DTC/NOBOs, there is no way to ascertain exactly who is shorting the stock.
However, I would seriously doubt that it is a speculative short seller.
If you look at the dates of the jumps in the amounts of short sellers, they just so happen to coincide with the recent financing.
Reasoning follows then, that is highly probable that the increase in short interest, is hedge related to the financing.
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
* CryoPort Executes Purchase Agreements for Approximately $3.2 Million Private Placement
Friday, August 20, 2010
* CryoPort Announces Close of $3.2 Million Private Placement
Short Sales
Date Short Interest - Avg. Daily Vol.
Sept 15,- 211,339 - 54,830
Aug 31, - 213,495 - 20,287
Aug 13,- 80,448 - 45,626
Jul 30,- 1,550- 2,883
Jun 30,- 0- 3,890
Jun 15, - 73- 4,406
May 28, - 687- 2,186
May 14, - 539- 6,365
Apr 30,- 6,670- 13,613
Apr 15,- 2,120- 20,002
That being said, there should not be any impact on SP due to this occurrence. Excluding the economy, and the broader market, all that matters is that Cryoport starts generating revenues, revenues, and perhaps, some more revenues.
StockDude: "Naked short selling, or naked shorting, is the practice of short-selling a financial instrument without first borrowing the security or ensuring that the security can be borrowed, as is conventionally done in a short sale. When the seller does not obtain the shares within the required time frame, the result is known as a "fail to deliver". The transaction generally remains open until the shares are acquired by the seller, or the seller's broker, allowing the trade to be settled.
In 2005, "Regulation SHO" was enacted, requiring that broker-dealers have grounds to believe that shares will be available for a given stock transaction, and requiring that delivery take place within a limited time period," which is within the standard (T+3) three day delivery period.
CYRX qualified for the SHO threshold list because there are more than 10,000 shares that were failed to deliver in the past five trading days and the level of “fails” is a minimum of 0.5 percent of the shares outstanding.
2 Year UST to a fresh all time low of 0.4066%, and gold to an all time high of $1,320. Just a matter of time...
scratch preclude...meant to say a precursor to market collapse
J: Just to set the record straight. I'm not just jumping on the bear bandwagon now. I predicted this at the end of last year, in post #4934 on 12/31/09. I just think that the market is currently setting up for a sell-off.
Yes, everybody was bearish the beginning of September , and that was one of the reasons the market rallied, along with $10 billion in Fed intervention, and front running the Fed ahead of an expected QE2.
What is interesting about the sentiment currently however, is that the bears are terrified to short the market, because they now fear the Fed can prop up stocks indefinitely through open market operations and QE2. Traders who bought significant out of the money protection on stocks are suffering big losses on their insurance due to the rally and the action in the VIX. This has resulted in a shift in sentiment, that may now preclude a market collapse.