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I'll bet you it's between $1.00-$1.20...if you're lucky.
Volume has obviously dried up significantly, now that the CSTI show has gone on temporary hiatus. As CEO has suggested, the next catalyst for a renewed move( in either direction) will probably be the release of the registration statement. The technical picture is not very promising at this point in time, however.
>>I hope when we see the 10Q for the 1st Quarter 2011 in 3 months. It better look better than the 4Q Rev.<< StockDude.
Faith, hope and prayer should be reserved for church and synagogue. Once you begin to apply the practice to an investment or trade, it means it's probably too late.
That was yesterday's target, baseball fan. I'm afraid CSTI is going to be at this for several days. He now knows he has the longs by the short hairs, and he is going to continue to march the share price down as low as he can.
If you notice he is making a two sided market, but is playing around with the the spread. He will widen it and then tighten it up - trying to control the pace and the price of the market, i.e. slowing the pace when he spreads the market wide, and drawing traders in when he tightens the spread, and then pulling his bids.
However, sometimes we get a weak bounce following that second reversal. This push does not result in new price highs, but is a part of the overall topping, reversal process. The important elements are the drying up of volume to the upside, the false upside breakout, and then the scrambling of the longs out of their positions, adding downside volume, which of course, plays right into CSTI's hands.
All I know is the price action is classic, and that the move was orchestrated by CSTI. So if it walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it's probably a duck who is short.
CSTI ran the stock up yesterday with a tight spread just so he could average his position, then he spread the market wide and stopped the move cold in it's tracks, so he would be able take it down yesterday afternoon and some more today. Now he is tightening the spread once again to draw in more sellers.
What CYRX is going to be left with from a technical standpoint is a classic reversal.
The pattern for the reversal began with a momentum high on 1/25/2011, in which price moved higher on strong volume. Following the momentum high, CYRX saw a 50% pullback. Once the selling abated, the market went sideways for 3 weeks, and then we saw a breakout and a new high (price high) on 02/22/2011.
This new price high (unlike the momentum high) however, was largely fueled by short covering and CSTI's manipulation, and consequently quickly sold off. This tells us that higher prices could no no longer facilitate trade and a failed auction was the result.
Following the price high is the current pullback which will probably be more severe than the first one, as it retraces the most recent move to new highs, led by former buyers scrambling out of their positions, adding to the downside volume.
As a very rough rule, the longer the time period separating the momentum and price highs, the deeper and more protracted the subsequent reversal. In CYRX’s case we have an extended topping (almost 1 month apart), which means more bulls are ultimately trapped and are contributing to the downturn.
When we get a transition pattern on a daily chart like we have with CYRX, the reversals can be quite important.
The SEC extended and expanded the rules to remove exceptions and to cover all companies, including market makers, in response to the claims that aggressive short selling had played a role in the Lehman failure.
http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2009/2009-172.htm
That may be the case, but CSTI is the MM who was most aggressively chasing the market, and feeling the pain. The real question is - what happens after they are finished covering their shorts?
After Friday’s breakout move, on good volume, traders had a chance to digest the action over The President’s Day holiday. While the move was undeniably bullish, the question on my mind was do we buy this breakout? Was there enough new buying by strong hands or was this rally caused largely in part by stuck market makers covering their short positions?
After the January rally on the expectation and the release of the FedEx announcement, CYRX sold off retracing 50% of the move. Whether this was simply profit taking in true “buy-the-rumor-sell-the news” fashion, or the market pricing in the upcoming dilution caused by the offering, the market was unable to hold onto it’s gains.
Nevertheless, I came out Tuesday with a cautiously bullish bias based on continued internal strength, the fact that CYRX held the 0.90 cent level in the face of a relatively large offering and it’s attendant dilution.
But what was clearly the case today, was that there was indeed stuck short term traders who were forced to chase the market higher, in order to cover their positions. While CYRX closed 0.06 cents higher on good volume, it made a new high, failed, and closed in the bottom half of it’s range.
CSTI appears to still have some shorts to cover, but his urgency has diminished, and I believe he is close to being finished with his order. Without the shorts paying up to cover their existing positions and providing a natural short covering bid, CYRX may well have more room to move to the downside. The 10Q certainly didn’t provide any reasons for new buying to come into the stock.
Why would you have to wait 3 months? They only keep bad news a secret...not good news.
Dude: Probability-wise...about a 1% chance of that happening.
Stock price (base case) at day 4
0.76 0.004 0.996
0.85 0.020 0.980
0.94 0.061 0.939
1.03 0.140 0.860
1.12 0.256 0.744
1.21 0.396 0.604
1.30 0.539 0.461
1.44 0.725 0.275
1.57 0.854 0.146
1.71 0.929 0.071
1.84 0.968 0.032
1.98 0.987 0.013
Median:
1.27 0.500 0.500
CSTI should be close to being finished covering his shorts - market should settle back to $1.19-$1.24.
CSTI is stuck like a pig in a poke!!! This is definitely short covering right now.
You forgot to put "LOL" at the end of your paragraph...LOL.
As we have seen so many times before, CYRX moved dramatically higher after a long period of consolidation, although this current period lasted only 16 trading days and encompassed a 0.21 cent trading range. A very rough guideline for determining a price target for this “breakout” move is to add .021 to the top of the recent trading range, which would give CYRX an initial price target of $1.31.
What makes breakout trading so difficult for traders is that they look at price only--not at the ability of price to attract large trading volume and more importantly, large traders. As a result, they assume that any move out of a range is a breakout. This leaves them vulnerable to sudden reversals caused by market makers who are looking to short over-valued stocks or stat arb traders initiating mean reversion trades.
Friday’s trade was not quite as dramatic of an example of a breakout trade, as I would have liked. The volume could have been greater, and there was definitely some short covering that added to the rally, but price did move above value in a convincing manner. However, it isn’t just about the ability of those breakout prices moving above value that makes a breakout trade; it’s the ability of those breakout prices to attract large buying. When you see a true breakout move that doesn’t return to it’s prior trading range, it’s because the market is repricing value and the strong hands are buying.
Friday’s volume was close to 221,000 which is about 33% greater than it’s 10-day average volume and 350% greater than it’s 90-day average volume. And 70% percent of the volume was generated by purchases of 5000 or greater shares, which shows that some larger buyers are coming into the stock.
CYRX is short term over bought once again and is right up against the 50MA on the weekly chart, which proved to be resistance 4 weeks ago. However, on an intermediate term and longer term timeframe, the market is gaining efficiency to the upside.The sellers appear to be exhausted and the buyers seem to be emboldened, having consistently pushed prices higher on increased volume since the end of December.
While this bottoming process may seem like it’s taking a long time, the longer it takes, the more extended the move in the opposite direction. That being said, CYRX will soon face countertrend resistance at $1.31-$1.35. It is important that CYRX does not lose momentum, because the journey can be as important as the destination. Stocks have see better returns on average when recent price action has been strong, which suggests that it isn’t just the stocks rise in value that leads to favorable expectations, but the velocity of the rise.
Hopefully, there will be some large follow-through buying next week followed by some good news the same week or next.
...and somewhere in the billowy clouds high above the stadium, there will be 6 falcons flying high and tight in perfect Delta formation, led by a solitary falcon wearing an old Koufax jersey, contentedly whistling "take me out to the ballpark."
Hey, nobody's perfect. I was only off by 0.04 cents, although I did think they would have made it more difficult, by shaking the "weaks" one more time.
Post #7664...CYRX broke the 4SD-Lin Reg bull channel off the Dec. lows, however it is short term over sold and could bounce back up to $1.08-09, before it sells off and tests the $0.85-$0.79 level. If it doesn't hold 0.79, it's back down to $0.64-0.63.
And from my blog (1/27/20110)...Although I am trader by nature, I have always had a desire to own this company as a long term investment, but CYRX's price action made it extremely difficult to hold. The CEO now appears to have made changes to a legacy system that was obviously ineffective, although further adjustments in the business model may be necessary to insure scalable growth.
This retracement would present an opportunity to either initiate a long position, or add to an existing long position.
Oviously, something is afoot in Lake Forest, which most surely portends that the baseball metaphors will be flowing out of the "land of 10.000 lakes" faster-than-a-Michelob Golden Draft-turns-to-pee at a Twin's game in July. So please allow me to take a few swings before the man from 'up north' steps up to the plate.
We all know this can be agonizingly slow game that is is often won in the bottom of the ninth. Some may argue with the skipper's managerial style, but a lot of curve balls were thrown his way. Remember, this guy was no rookie CEO, and while it may have appeared that he dropped the ball on occasion and committed some pretty egregious errors, the game took some crazy turns that were beyond his control. But this is a game of averages, and apparently LS knows how to play them. He had to make some difficult decisions and consequently had to make some risky moves - but you can't steal second, if you don't take your foot off of first.
There is often a fine line between foul and fair, and between success and failure, but while he has yet to hit the ball out of the park, or even hit for average, LS has not struck out and is definitely back in the game; perhaps stronger than ever. Investors stand the very real chance of being left out in left field, if they don't get into the game now. We're definitely going into extra innings in this game, But If LS wants to make it in the Big Leagues, he is going to have to cover all his bases, not make any more errors, and possibly one of his big hitters will hit a walk-off home run to win the game.
CSTI is a stuck short.
BBF: BTIG is on both sides of the market, most likely just turning over stock.
Just because a MM is on the offer doesn't necessarily mean he is a seller, and conversely just because a MM is on the bid doesn't mean he is buyer. If a MM wants to hide what he is doing, he can put out a large offer, and then have a buy order with another MM, for example. They like to disguise what the are doing especially when they have to move size.
BBF: It's a bet!!! I'll sell Dec12 $20.00 Calls at any price, all day long.
Oh yeah, so what's your point? It doesn't mean that it's not common practice.
Just watch what happens when BTIG backs off or moves out of the way.
BTW: CEO is the one who said he wanted to short CYRX here...not me. I just agreed with his fundamental assessment of the company. Personally, I wouldn't short such an illiquid stock - instead I would buy it on a break.
All I am saying is the stock is probably going lower before it goes higher, and if and when it does go higher, investors should be a little more realistic in their expectations.
$20.00 now?...not even if consumers confuse the dewars for blended scotch whiskey!!!
What it would take for this stock to soon be $8-10!
Here are my top 10 reasons what is needed for this stock to be $5.00 or more soon:
10) Cryoport does another 1-10 reverse split
9) Steve Jobs replaces LS as CEO of Cryoport
8) Customers receive a free I-pad with every Cryoshipper
7) Cryoport offers Groupons for their shipper
6) Their customers consult Facebook before choosing a frozen shipping solution
5) Google decides to acquire Cryoport instead of Groupon
4) Primary dealers direct QE2 liquidity purchases to CYRX instead of NFLX, AAPL, and GOOG.
3) Commodities and Gold lose their lustre as hedge against inflation and are replaced by CYRX
2) C-port wins the Powerball and invests it all in CYRX
1) Oprah recommends Cryoport on her frozen-shipper-of-the-month list
Do you really believe that Cryoport is going to be able to ramp sales from current levels to 10,000-12,0000 units in such a short period of time, and command a valuation of 10X revenues. Google trades at a six times revenue multiple. Groupon trades at half of that - a three times revenue multiple - that would be a $6 billion valuation in 2012. Is a three times revenue multiple reasonable? Yes, to the extent that Groupon is growing much faster than Google, but it’'s also twice the $3 billion valuation at which Groupon's been raising funding. So it must be that Cryoport’s margins are so large it will justify a 10 times revenue multiple.
Here's a slightly more rational and objective assessment of where the CYRX might be trading in the next 100 days. It is based on a lognormal distribution curve of price. This is a probability study that inputs the following variables: CYRX's current price, historical volatility, expected ROR, and time period for the study. I used the information supplied in Cryoport's most recent 10-Q to derive the input values and used 100 days as the time period for the study. I did not take into consideration the upcoming dilution or factor in future revenue growth. Nevertheless, this provides a more realistic estimate of future price.
The first column is the future price of Cryoport in the next 100 days. The second column is the probability of CYRX trading below that price, and the third column is the probability of CYRX trading above that price.
PR. BEL. ABV.
0.22 0.034 0.966
0.45 0.227 0.773
0.67 0.450 0.550
0.90 0.624 0.376
1.24 0.789 0.211
1.58 0.880 0.120
1.92 0.929 0.071
2.25 0.957 0.043
2.59 0.973 0.027
2.93 0.983 0.017
3.27 0.989 0.011
3.61 0.993 0.007
Median:
0.73 0.500 0.500
C: I agree.
The reason CYRX isn't selling off in anticipation of the of the impending dilution is the because the stock is being supported, most likely through BTIG. The stock is supported EVERY time they do a capital raise, until the offering is closed. This is fact, not speculation - it's the way it's done. When they did the public offering, Rodman supported the stock, and when the offering was finished and they had completed the unloading of the stock on their retail clients, Rodman backed off and CYRX sold off.
Naked short specialists seek out these very opportunities amongst varying other kinds of over valued stock plays. If you look at the Level 2 of CYRX you will see the MMs, CHDN, STXG, CSTI, and PUMA - they are all naked short specialists. They are in CYRX for one reason and one reason only. They are circling the wagon, waiting for the right time to strike.
Just watch what happens after the offering is closed, and pay close attention to what these particular MMs do.
Frozen: Funny, but I don't remember that little tidbit of information being disseminated to the public. Must be nice to be privy to inside information, and better yet to be able to profit from that information. Of course, it's not so bright to advertise the fact you possess this knowledge in a public forum.
C: This wasn't a public offering - it was a private offering to accredited investors. There is no quiet period.
CP,OT, and all:
The contention that I use the Cryoport message board to manipulate the share price of CYRX is ludicrous. Even the most staunch advocates of “self-fulfilling prophecy” wouldn’t buy into that theory. While neither jcoukr nor dickyt possess the experience, knowledge, or current practice to make such an accusation, doghousemine does.
He knows full well that it would be virtually impossible for me to influence the price of CYRX for an extended period of time, even if the members of this board dogmatically adhered to what I wrote. Dog understands how the markets function and knows that in the long term, the laws of supply and demand always prevail, and in the short term, there are more dominant forces (other than myself) that are manipulating the share price.
Cryoport is no different than any other immature publicly traded company.They face the same problems and risks, and they make the same mistakes that are universal to all start-ups. They misinterpret or underestimate costs, competition, timing, and the necessity to practice fundamental business practices.
It would follow then, that their probability of success along with the behavior of their share price, would follow a normal distribution. Additionally, the probability of seeing a normally-distributed value that is far (more than a few standard deviations) from the mean drops off extremely rapidly. As a result statistical interference using a normal distribution is not robust to the presence of outliers (data that is unexpectedly far from the mean, due to exceptional circumstances, i.e., news, irrational sentiment of investors, etc.) This tendency for the market to revert back to it's mean, is why extreme moves in share price can be faded (the majority of the time) with great success.
Combine this knowledge of price behavior with the knowledge of how investment bankers and certain market makers “conduct business” and manipulate the markets, and it is relatively easy to predict both Cryoport’s progress as a company and CYRX’s share price.
There are very few, if any, members of this board, that believe anything that I write in the first place, so I find it impossible to believe that anything negative I would write, would have an influence on CYRX’s price.
C: “When you state in your post, that there are more competitors and fewer competitive advantages, nothing wrong with that, but who are these competitors that offer a FROZEN end to end solution?”
The very fact that you assume Cryoport has no competition in the frozen shipping space lends proof to the claim you are questioning. A company may assume they have a compelling product but still remain virtually ignored if they neglected to fully understand the end user.
If we are to believe that the size of the frozen shipping market is as big as everybody assumes it is, then Cryoport’s current share of the market is in the meager to barley perceptible range. That means that another company or companies ( a.k.a. the competition) holds the lion’s share of the market. Obtaining a piece of the market amongst other popular, well established companies is the primary challenge that faces Cryoport.
In general, most new companies entering a niche market often fail to understand their target market, including what the buyer specifically wants along with their motivations to purchase the product. CEO specifically explained how this claim relates to Cryoport and why there might be some resistance to adopting Cryoport's product by established end users.
...and I probably will be, but not at these price levels, nor at these sentiment levels. I'll be buying it when the sugar high wears off, and everybody has their tails between their legs, moaning how the stock is back down and sales are not up - and then I'll sell it on the next big news event, when everybody starts talking about CYRX being a $10.00 stock again.
"Balls," said the queen. If I had them, I'd be king.
"Nuts," said the prince. I've got them, and I'm not king.
"Crap," said the king, and 50,000 loyal subjects squatted and strained...
"Revenue," said Stockdude. If Cryoport had them, it would be $10 in a year.
"Customers," said Baseball Fan. If Cryoport had them, it would be $5.00 by March.
"Half-a-Brain," said CEO. Anyone with one, would realize that the the probability of either event occurring is 0%.
CEO: I have to agree with you on both points you raised. #1), Every venture has more competitors and fewer competitive advantages than it thinks. If there is money to be made by satisfying a pressing need in the marketplace, you can be sure that plenty of others are gunning for that same dollar. Cryoport's "obvious" competitive advantage may be overestimated. #2) They supported this stock at $0.75 so that R&R could unload stock on it's retail customers, and then they backed off and the stock promptly sold off to $0.43. Now they ran up the stock up up $1.35 and are holding SP at the $0.90 level so Emergent can complete the current placement. Based on it's historical performance, I see no reason why CYRX's future performance wouldn't follow the same distribution and sell off once the financing has closed - it's just a matter of how far!
Until Cryoport starts generating sufficient revenues, investors are going to remain stuck in the financing/dilution cycle. The longer it takes to generate and grow sales, the longer the cycle will persist, and the greater the dilution to the investors.
In case you ever wondered why...
As most have you noticed, the number of market makers that quote a Bulletin Board stock seems to have dropped off over the last year. Some quote systems in fact, have two separate bid and offer quotes for the same stock; one that is quoted Pink Sheet and the other Bulletin Board.
As you might also have noticed, Knight Capital (NITE), the largest market maker of OTC securities, has stopped quoting many stocks on the BB and only quotes certain stocks on the Pinks.
The reason is that OTC Bulletin Board Market Markers are now billed participation fees by FINRA based on the number of positions during a given month. (A position is defined as any quotation that is priced or unpriced, firm or non-firm, one-sided or two-sided, or any indication of interest entered by a MM in an OTCBB security) These fees have made it challenging for market maker firms to maintain markets in a huge number of stocks that are not active. Therefore, MMs simply drop from making markets on the BB for many stocks, or drop making a market altogether.
This is why you see some MMs making a market for CYRX on the BB and some making a market on (Pink) OTC Markets - OTCQB.
dwally: needs to back & fill to the 0.75 level
The 0.75 cent level is also the intermediate term POC for CYRX, and should be near term support if CYRX continues to rotate lower.
C: Bought the stock between 0.52-0.55 on 01/06/2011. 2X in 2wks... My only regret is I didn't buy any 0.43s, but I wanted to see some consistent accumulation. I'm pretty confident I'll be back in before long...long.
Meanwhile, keep your fingers crossed for a Bears/Jets Superbowl.
"I think we hit $5 by the end of March" Other than the fact, a $5.00 share price makes you feel all warm and fuzzy inside, what criteria do you use to derive that target?
200MA on the daily is $1.10. RSI(3) is +98.00. Personally, I am taking profits here. It's highly probable the news is already been priced into the market. They have been accumulating stock since the low was made at the end of December, and the odds are the announcement of any news, will be a "sell the fact" event.
Should go to $1.15...200MA
Very unusual... and impossible. There's a seller for every buyer. Unless you have the open interest figures, one can't determine if it's new buying or short-covering. Although, one can assume it's accumulative buying, because it closed up 28% on good volume.
Happy New Year!... Go Bears!