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Yes, golds fly from here, both on 81day cycle swing trade, but on cyclical and secular basis.......noone beleives in gold bull market, yet. Buy heavily here then out in May and stay away (or re-evaluate then at least)
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid={F90F13A6-2C98-4038-88C7-F1B82AB32737}&siteid=mkt...
"Posted by: onedrill
In reply to: Bernard_Barouk who wrote msg# 90871 Date:3/25/2003 5:55:47 PM
Post #of 90929
Nice recovery in HUI at TD.
So, you thing this means we move up from here.
I agree as other technicals look due to go up"
We are smack in the middle of the 81 trading day cycle for the HUI.
It has been in place for 7+ full cycles, and you can count on it working here, especially in light of the war setbacks and Zeevs view of the Naz.
We are due for a moonshot rise in gold stocks for the next 40-45 trading days. Possibly breathtaking.
Posted by: mainehiker
In reply to: None Date:3/25/2003 2:25:24 PM
Post #of 90867
bernard ...do some magic and make my golds go up thank you
How have you two yanks done in your gold investments over the last 5 years?
Posted by: ItsAllCyclical
In reply to: mainehiker who wrote msg# 90626 Date:3/25/2003 8:45:39 AM
Post #of 90629
>> bernard..wish i had a nickel for every time youve mentioned those <<
If you did it would probably be enough for several thousand shares...enough to move these micro of micro-caps.
I've long ago concluded that Bernard has an agenda.
mainehiker I would take a penny for every wiseass comment from you on this board.
GSS, BGO, CUSIF.ob and BENGb.ob are getting ready to do a reprise of what they did last 2 years in March through May timeframe.
USERX is a good illustration of this.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=USERX&d=c&t=1y&l=on&z=b&q=l
However I have been doing this since the mid-80's and can tell you individual micro-golds, done right, will give you much greater upside.
GSS 2x within 3 months
CUSIF.ob 2x within 3 months
BENGB.ob 3X in 3 months, 5X this year.
BGO 2X within 3 months.
MNG has some voodoo in it as I rememeber. I only look at mines with proved out high reserves/$ market cap., low or no debt, and have huge mothballed mining capacity that will give 10-20X in this gold bull.
"Posted by: Bullwinkle
In reply to: Bernard_Barouk who wrote msg# 90573
Gold looks ready to launch, what do you think of BGO, MNG & GSS?"
"Posted by: Bernard_Barouk
In reply to: Bullwinkle who wrote msg# 90324 Date:3/24/2003 4:39:17 PM
Post #of 90620
Gold shorting/the dollar ramp was politically brilliant in the '90s', but the hangover will be thermonuclear in scale.
The surplus never existed, the strong dollar fundementals never existed, just like $200 Ariba didn't really exist except on the tape, then went to money heaven.
The short squeeze coming in gold will be breathtaking. Accumulating more micro-golds every day in anticipation."
Gold shorting/the dollar ramp was politically brilliant in the '90s', but the hangover will be thermonuclear in scale.
The surplus never existed, the strong dollar fundementals never existed, just like $200 Ariba didn't really exist except on the tape, then went to money heaven.
The short squeeze coming in gold will be breathtaking. Accumulating more micro-golds every day in anticipation.
http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7078991&tid=cde&sid=7078991&...
"Posted by: Bullwinkle
In reply to: Bernard_Barouk who wrote msg# 90094 Date:3/24/2003 1:09:56 AM
Post #of 90572
BB,
Just curious why so many people feel like yourself and are ready to jump on the last administration for the problems we see today? If I remember correctly there use to be a surplus and some pretty good market action back then...
Happy Trading,
Bullwinkle"
Art Cashin on CNBC (straight shooter)now says that the talk on the trading floor is that traders believe Saddam is dead or in a coma and that the war will be over before Monday.
He says if it's not over this weekend there will be a lot of rethinking.
All Mtn Ski, probably not. The economy and markets were cooked and began trend line in March 2000, courtesy of the last administration.
Posted by: All Mtn Ski
In reply to: None Date:3/21/2003 7:54:03 PM
Post #of 90093
Now this is interesting:
Study: War Costs Stock Market $1.1 Trillion
Friday March 21, 7:01 pm ET
By Michael Kahn
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Even before the United States went to war against Iraq, the threat of conflict had drained $1.1 trillion from the value of the U.S. stock market, according to a study released on Friday.The research, which was released as the market posted its biggest single-week gain since the jump that followed the Sept. 11 hijacking attacks, tracked the performance of a novel financial instrument called the "Saddam Security," essentially a bet that the Iraqi leader will be deposed.
The researchers at Stanford University and Harvard University looked at how much value the U.S. stock market lost as online bets increased that the United States would go to war to oust Saddam Hussein.
While the S&P 500 index rallied 7.5 percent this week in anticipation of a swift conclusion to the war, the rising probability of a conflict had already knocked 15 percent off where the stock market would have been if the United States had not taken on Iraq, the study said.
Most of those losses came in shares of consumer goods companies, airlines and technology companies and those relying on discretionary spending, researchers said.
"All the news this week has been about timing," said Eric Zitzewitz, an assistant professor of economics at Stanford's School of Business who co-authored the study. "The cost of war was priced in a while ago."
To assess the impact of war jitters on the market, the researchers tracked an online bet offered by a Tradesports, an Internet-based "betting exchange" based in Ireland.
Since September of last year, Tradesports (www.tradesports.com) had been offering a financial instrument that pays $10 per share if the Iraqi leader is ousted by a certain date.
'SADDAM SECURITIES'
The trading in those "Saddam Securities" provides a proxy for how the market saw the probability of concluding a war ending in Hussein's ouster, the researchers said.
For instance, the March "Saddam Security" last traded at $7.80 on Friday, implying a 78 percent chance Hussein will be ousted by end-month. That was up from a previous close of 65 percent and up sharply from 17 percent earlier this month.
The researchers then correlated that record of market-based probability to changes in oil and stock prices and related futures and options to see how markets have reacted to the war risk, the researchers said.
"A lot of experts have looked at the budgetary costs of the war," Zitzewitz said. "We thought that was only looking at the tip of the iceberg. We wanted to look at the effect on financial assets."
Other experts have estimated that the direct cost of a U.S. war to the government would be between $22 billion and $140 billion, depending on how long the conflict runs and how willing the United States is to fund Iraq's reconstruction.
Meanwhile, the stock market has priced in a 70 percent probability that the eventual impact of the war on the market will lead to a decline of zero to 15 percent and a 20 percent chance of a 15 to 30 percent dip, the study said.
The worst-case scenario was what the researchers said was a small but significant 10 percent probability of a steep plunge of more than 30 percent.
"What this means is that by mid-March, about 95 percent of the war's effect on the U.S. stock market has already been priced in and $1.1 trillion of the nation's wealth has disappeared," said Justin Wolfers, an assistant professor of political economy at Stanford Business School.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/030321/iraq_usa_cost_2.html
Mainehiker. Accumulating these golds.
Look at the left side of this graph, mid-March through May of last year. Did same thing in 2001 as well.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=USERX&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=...
I expect a bigger move in these individual stocks than the gold fund shown.....GSS, CUSIF.ob and BENGB.ob. You will make 2-3X your money in the next 3 months form here. Possibly 4X if extends another month into summer.
TINNER, we will levitate next week. The funds need to close the quarter up, and the Japanese will fall on their sword if we don't, as well, per below.
"Posted by: tinner
In reply to: techanalyst1 who wrote msg# 89985 Date:3/21/2003 3:35:51 PM
Post #of 90075
Are the shorts covering before the weekend or staying short? Any opinions?"
"Posted by: Bernard_Barouk
In reply to: Bernard_Barouk who wrote msg# 86880 Date:3/21/2003 2:07:20 PM
Post #of 90075
Huge capitulation in SNP shorts and golds longs.
The market-makers are killing the SNP shorts on purpose today, due to expirey of options tomorrow. Hedge funds rule (for a very short time longer).
The Japanese HAVE TO HAVE NIKKEI OVER 8200, and Yen over 122ish by month end, or their banks go insolvent.
So what do they do? Float the Hussein is dead rumor as they intentionally ramp the markets and crush gold (wagging the dog).
If you buy golds like GSS, VGZ, CUSIF.ob and BENGB.ob. You will make 2-3X your money in the next 3 months.
Book it.
"Posted by: Bernard_Barouk
In reply to: Zeev Hed who wrote msg# 86626 Date:3/14/2003 8:31:43 AM
Post #of 89908
BUY GOLD & MINERS NOW
hui rsi and williams%R most oversold since nov 2000. best buying opportunity since then.
shorts to the slaughter now.
at the bottom of a 2 year channel, had six weeks down now will have six weeks up.
weekly and monthly bars still in uptrend, still long term bull market.
weekly bars: williams%r making higher low = buy.
in this last downswing the close long signals were monthly bars, jan. at 139.48. weekly bars week of jan. 12 at 142.12. daily bars jan. 14 at 142.58.
hourly bars: buy signal march 13th at 10:00 am.and another at noon.
buy like crazy now. gold and miners."
Brinkers cost basis on the QQQ's is still 80. How do you play that?
George, Saville stated yesterday he is expecting gold stocks to rise with the SNP. Have we deviated from his outlook?
Huge capitulation in SNP shorts and golds longs.
The market-makers are killing the SNP shorts on purpose today, due to expirey of options tomorrow. Hedge funds rule (for a very short time longer).
The Japanese HAVE TO HAVE NIKKEI OVER 8200, and Yen over 122ish by month end, or their banks go insolvent.
So what do they do? Float the Hussein is dead rumor as they intentionally ramp the markets and crush gold (wagging the dog).
If you buy golds like GSS, VGZ, CUSIF.ob and BENGB.ob. You will make 2-3X your money in the next 3 months.
Book it.
"Posted by: Bernard_Barouk
In reply to: Zeev Hed who wrote msg# 86626 Date:3/14/2003 8:31:43 AM
Post #of 89908
BUY GOLD & MINERS NOW
hui rsi and williams%R most oversold since nov 2000. best buying opportunity since then.
shorts to the slaughter now.
at the bottom of a 2 year channel, had six weeks down now will have six weeks up.
weekly and monthly bars still in uptrend, still long term bull market.
weekly bars: williams%r making higher low = buy.
in this last downswing the close long signals were monthly bars, jan. at 139.48. weekly bars week of jan. 12 at 142.12. daily bars jan. 14 at 142.58.
hourly bars: buy signal march 13th at 10:00 am.and another at noon.
buy like crazy now. gold and miners."
BENGB.ob and CUSIF.ob, and GSS will be 2-3x from here in May, as we saw in both 2001 and 2002 this time of year. Then out in May and stay away."
BUY GOLD & MINERS NOW
hui rsi and williams%R most oversold since nov 2000. best buying opportunity since then.
shorts to the slaughter now.
at the bottom of a 2 year channel, had six weeks down now will have six weeks up.
weekly and monthly bars still in uptrend, still long term bull market.
weekly bars: williams%r making higher low = buy.
in this last downswing the close long signals were monthly bars, jan. at 139.48. weekly bars week of jan. 12 at 142.12. daily bars jan. 14 at 142.58.
hourly bars: buy signal march 13th at 10:00 am.and another at noon.
buy like crazy now. gold and miners."
BENGB.ob and CUSIF.ob, and GSS will be 2-3x from here in May, as we saw in both 2001 and 2002 this time of year. Then out in May and stay away.
What happens to golds in a worldwide full blown depression? Big cap gold stocks go 10X and small caps go 30X.
Felix Zulaf in Barron's explains very very well.......
"But the one really long-term theme I'm recommending is gold. Historically, it's been a hedge against inflation and fiat currencies.
Q: Mostly, it's been a hedge against capital gains.
Zulauf: That's been true in the past 20 years, but it's changing. The price of gold moves in steps. From 1971 to 1980, the price went from $35 an ounce to $850. From '80 until the past few years, it fell from $850 to $250. Having put in a bottom around $250 an ounce, it's now trading $100 higher. We all know the history. Now the central banks in the U.S., Japan and, later, in Europe are trying to solve our economic problems by throwing money at the system. The end result will be more and more new money, without a counterbalance in the real economy. They created money out of thin air, which means the value of paper currencies goes down. That's the history of fiat currencies.
The whole process has been accelerated by the problems in the U.S. Personal consumption has been going up over the past 20 years. Instead of solving the problems of underinvestment and rebalancing the economy, which would be painful for a while, the central bank just throws money at the system and entices consumers to take on more debt. At best, the U.S. is in for a long period of stagflation, very low growth or worse. At some point, the world will begin to understand that the U.S. economy is fundamentally much weaker than generally believed.
Q: Then what?
Zulauf: The U.S. is the largest debtor nation. About $3 trillion are held by foreigners, if calculated at the purchase price, and foreigners are still buying U.S. assets. Last year they bought about $45 billion of U.S. equities, but that will change at some point. When people realize there are fundamental problems in the U.S. economy, the dollar will begin to decline in a major way. The process actually started in 2001. Other central banks will at some point then try to support the dollar, because if it declines too much, it hurts their exports. They will be forced to adopt the same policy as the U.S. central bank, and you will have the whole world creating more fiat currencies. That's when gold will really run.
I use a timing model -- gold versus stocks, or the Dow Jones Industrial Average divided by the price of one ounce of gold. In 1929 you bought gold and sold stocks. The ratio was at 15 to 1. In 1942 you sold gold and bought stocks. The ratio was 3 to 1. In 1966 you bought gold again and sold stocks. The ratio was 28 to 1. In 1982 you sold gold and bought stocks because the ratio was 1 to 1. In 2000 you bought gold and sold stocks, because the ratio was 45 to 1. It's now 25 to 1. I don't know exactly how low it will go, but I'd guess somewhere between 1 to 1 and 1 to 3. We'll see in 10-12 years. That's why gold is my long-term call.
Q: Are you talking about buying gold itself, or futures?
Zulauf: You buy real gold. In real terms, after accounting for inflation, it's about at the level where it sold in the 1930s. In actuality, it's where it was in the early 1970s. It's dirt-cheap.
Q: But you've got to store it. You've got to pay interest for the storage. You don't get any cash flow from it.
Zulauf: If owning gold is not attractive, you buy gold stocks. But that's a different ballgame because you have corporate risks, managements that could mess things up, companies with liabilities. There is not much gold around. All the gold mined in the world equals 143,000 tons. That's a cube of 20 meters. At current prices, that gold is worth $1.5 trillion. Compare this to the U.S. debt of $31 trillion, and it's tiny. It's peanuts.
Gabelli: The last time gold was at $400 an ounce, the XAU [the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver index] was about 180. Gold today is $355 an ounce, and the XAU is at 80. The contracts haven't moved.
Zulauf: Well, the XAU is composed of different sorts of gold companies, and the heavyweights are those that hedge. They don't benefit from the rise in gold prices. Placer Dome and Barrick Gold hedge. They do not move up with the price of gold. Among the large-cap stocks, Newmont Mining has started taking its hedges off. It wants to go fully unhedged.
Gabelli: The index has changed since 1994 because of mergers.
Black: Isn't there one fallacy in your reasoning, Felix? Let's assume M2 or M3 [measures of money supply] grew by 7% or 8%, which is what happened in the past year. What happens when you're getting productivity gains of 4% and 5%? Ultimately, you're not going to have inflation.
Zulauf: The policy of the U.S. central bank is going to destroy the dollar. Confidence in the U.S. currency at some point will collapse, and you'll have a run on dollars. Money can't go to other currencies, because they have to support the dollar. Gold will act as a monetary currency -- a currency without the liabilities of ill-guided central bankers. Another way of looking at it is to say the U.S. has underinvested in capital investment to supply the goods that U.S. consumers are demanding. You have spent your money by buying on credit instead of investing. The Chinese are investing. They are building an empire.
Samberg: With our money.
Q: Felix, do you like any gold stocks?
Zulauf: I am not a stockpicker in this field. I would just go with names that don't hedge -- for instance, GoldFields, Meridian or Newmont. Buy them and hold them. They will all be 10-baggers over the next 10 years."
"Posted by: jbennett53
In reply to: Bernard_Barouk who wrote msg# 84930 Date:3/10/2003 12:35:03 PM
Post #of 84939
Bernard Barouk, What happens to gold in a worldwide depression?"
NEM vastly oversold relative to gold action.
As in 2001 and 2002 seasonals, look for bottoming action here and extreme upside strength into late May.
Ignore the Iraqi situation, it is noise relative to worldwide competitive currency devaluation race, deflationary business environment and rising inflation pressure in the U.S. (read stagflation coming faster).
Cusac, Benguet, Golden Star, Bema, Caledonia and Vista Gold Star are set to rock.
George Cole. This analysis (below), coupled with the 81 day cycle and 2 year bull market seasonal trends in gold and gold stocks, indicate accumulation in golds through early March, then a HUGE push up into late May.
We are are talking 3x higher from here on small caps I have been following. If this were to coincide with a military upset, the multiples to upside could be very much higher.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$HUI,uu[r,a]daclyyay[de][pb50!b200][vc60][iud21!um13!la3...
http://stockcharts.com/education/What/IndicatorAnalysis/indic_CCI.html
Gold stocks are well set to rumble, as $ and SNP take a tumble.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=783138
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$usd,uu[h,a]daclyyay[dc][pb50!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!Uh15,...
As usuual my fav vehicles for this ride will be GSS, CUSIF.ob and BENGB.ob
Good luck stock market longs.
Gold Stocks........what to expect.
Click on 10 year chart.
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
See the lip of the bowl back in 1997, gold suppourt at 376/380 broken? What is once broken becomes resistance. We are talking a MAJOR MAJOR 4 year support line crushed there. And that is now our true resistance.
That overnight break to 390 was a manipulated fabrication by banksters wanting to go mega-short, to hold the gold market down. Doesn't count as closing Comex is what gets on the charts. That break was a commonly seen foreshadowing of the future, however.
Once gold breaks back over 376 and stablizes in the old 380-400 range, small golds will go 3-5X from here gradually, as all good bull markets do.
DROOY, CUSIF.OB, GSS, AND BENGB.OB, as others, will do very well, if you can hold on 3-7 months.
CDC contact informs me it is nothing, minor.
The mall fire at Gwinnett mall outside Atlanta is co-incidence.
GOLD - basserDan,
With all respect, the only suggestion on how to play gold much seen here is buy some NEM and play a swing trade for a few weeks. It will be a good short term trade, but you miss the big money of the seasoanlity of gold stocks in this bull market.
In both 2001 and 2002, 2-4X 's were very common in the stocks I mention between January and June (check for yourself please). They have re-trenched and are vastly more undervalued now, than in the 2 prior years, relative to gold prices.
I have been trading gold shares up and down for 13 years, follow closely, and hold several hundred thousand shares of each of these companies. I know from which I speak, becaues I have put my eggs in 3 baskets and watch them very, very carefully.
I have held and built GSS, CUSIF.ob and BENGB.ob positions for 2+ years, not trading. I have 2-3X in them already.
How do you propose the less enlightened profit from this bull gold market? And do you know of anyone much, including Zeev, that actually "trades" gold stock successfully short term?
Bernard Barouk
Posted by: basserdan
In reply to: Bernard_Barouk who wrote msg# 76382 Date:2/14/2003 12:58:24 PM
Post #of 76484
GOLD - Bullion is making new lows for the move yet PM stocks aren't. All that remained to be done was what is going on now - taking out the stops below 350. Fair warning - get on board. The next advance in bullion takes PM stocks to new highs.Comex closes at 12:10 for Presidents Day Monday.
Peace does not break out over long weekends.
GSS, CUSIF.ob and BENGB.ob are excellent buys here.
GSS intermediate move to May = 2X higher.
CUSIF.ob intermediate move to May = 3X higher.
BENGB.ob intermediate move to May = 4X higher.
Hi Bernard,
Addressing your post to me is somewhat akin to "preaching to the choir" as I consider myself to be the resident 'token' gold bull of Zeev'e humble abode. <vbg>
While agreeing with much of what you say about the Au market in general, I feel a need to tell you that I find your repeated 'heads up" recommendations of the BENGB.OB et al trifecta to be somewhat indicative of having a self serving personal agenda. This is about the upteenth time that BENGB.OB has been your centerpiece and I can't let it pass without giving you some feedback from a fellow gold bull.
GOLD - Bullion is making new lows for the move yet PM stocks aren't. All that remained to be done was what is going on now - taking out the stops below 350. Fair warning - get on board. The next advance in bullion takes PM stocks to new highs.
Comex closes at 12:10 for Presidents Day Monday.
Peace does not break out over long weekends.
GSS, CUSIF.ob and BENGB.ob are excellent buys here.
GSS intermediate move to May = 2X higher.
CUSIF.ob intermediate move to May = 3X higher.
BENGB.ob intermediate move to May = 4X higher.
Gold manipulated down on rumor French have changed their minds and joined in support for war against Iraq.
NFW! French President had to run for re-election to avoid corruption charges and jail.
French basically sold Iraq its' nuke program.
French oil majors have strong contractual hold on Iraq oil development.
Gold dumped on farce to support SNP into option expirey, nothing more, nothing less.
Gold stocks a screaming buy here and now. Gold stock strength here tells the story, not the Comex.
Can still catch Benguet Gold, if you hurry, moves 2x DROOY on upside.
BENGUET CORP B (OTC BB:BENGB.OB) - Trade [edit]: HARRISdirect
Last Trade
2:33pm · 0.174 Change
+0.024 (+16.00%) Prev Cls
0.165 Open
0.140 Volume
188,300
"GSS and BEGNB.ob have tons more leverage to the rise in gold.
GSS got 20% mark-down due to raising $40MM to open mines, an excellent value here. Was 10X higher in 1996 and will revisit that level.
BENGB.ob, at .16 was once 4th largest miner in world, with a dozen mothablled mines ready to open now that gold and copper have broken out. Could easily see 15X from here. Appears that their KingKing property alone has an ounce of gold and 26 ounds of copper for every $4 of market cap,,,,a steal.
Very selective in golds I follow, listed below, I have a few I have followed a decade or more.
"Posted by: antman
In reply to: Bernard_Barouk who wrote msg# 375 Date:1/27/2003 5:49:48 PM
Post #of 379
Can you do an Elliot Wave analysis on YWO.V?
Thx in advance-"
Gold, and especially micro-cap gold companies, look like they are in the process of starting an incredible second big upmove move here, in a huge Elliot Wave 3 take-off.
Micro-cap golds, especially Cusac (CUSIF.ob), Benguet (BENGB.ob) and Commerce Group (CGCO.ob) look ready to launch a Wave 3 advance, after a dramatic 4X up Wave 1 and a 50% hair cut Wave 2.
Typically one looks for Wave 3 to be 300% X the %of Wave one advance.
That means that we expect a 900% upmove on this run in these three stocks, by this fall. These are stocks I am currently playing aggressively.
CUSIF.ob, CGCO.ob and CUSIF.ob.......... all have four key things in common that make them a huge buy right here:
- They are each outside the U.S. (CUSAC - Canada, BENGUET- Philippines, Commerce Group - El Salvador)
- They each have just come off multi-year bottom, had a huge 3 bagger+ Elliot Wave spike up Wave 1 up and have NOW completed Wave 2 down. They are lagging the majors, and RIGHT NOW they are entering Big Wave 3 up. We all know this is the biggest and most attractive part of a bull mover. From examining the charts I expect each to have a 8 to 10 bagger.
-All three are idle mining companies with good reserves, which is like buying an out of the money call, HUGE upside leverage. None have significant callable debt, and basically need $350+ stable gold prices to be 10-20++ baggers. Each has proven out and high probable reserves, ready to crank it up as things improve. If you believe we are in a bull market for gold this is how the dough is made.
- All three are not really followed by "The Street" yet. Sure a couple of newsletters mentioned Cusac, but no one, I mean no one but me remembers CGCO.ob and BENGB.ob in their glory days of being 30-50X higher in price then they are now.
Cusac, which I have 250,000 shares of, is prone to being highly promoted as bull markets progress, it has great fundamentals, but a little push from the blabber-mouths doesn't hurt. Big range of gold ore inherited from Cyprus Amax (Cyprus had to abandon option due to financial problems), plus Table Mountain mine in place (all it needs is a little higher gold prices, and the latest in mining tech will make this baby hummm). The symbol you would use in your brokerage account to look up Cusac would be CUSIE (possibly need to add .ob, depending on the service).
BENGB.ob. I have followed the stock for decades, currently own 200,000 shares.
It trades at $.15, but go to www.bigcharts.com and pull up a quote for bengb for the past 20 years, you can see it has traded as high as $8.
There are 2 "wild cards' that will make this one pop:
- It inherited, free of charge, the massive KingKing copper and gold range from Echo Bay, when Echo Bay had proved it up, but did not have the money to bring it into production(again, a forfeited option). Effectively Benguet has a lot more ore/share going into this bull market than last.
- The Philipino Peso, like the South African Rand, has totally collapsed, meaning mining at Benguet will be done cheap in Peso, and sold in more valuable $US, which is what has made DROOY move like it has due to Rand collapse.
I see it moving from $.15 to at least $3 in the next 15 months, or around a 20 bagger.
All the elements that took this thing to $6-7 are still in place, all we need is a little higher gold prices. The added KingKing will insure success.
Buying high leverage in a gold bull market, you do not want to buy gold miners that has been producing. The miners that kept producing during the gold bear market supplemented their cash flow by selling gold forward at prices much lower than now, and as a result are carrying "derivatives bombs" (read huge losses), on their books.
Small miners such as CUSIF.ob, VGZ and BENGB.ob all mothablled production when gold prices dropped, have little to no debt, and have huge gold ore in the ground per market cap dollar, thus, as gold stablizes to rises here, when they re-open their mines, share prices will skyrocket.....10-30X from here is very possible.
When I was a NYC firm trader in the 80's/90's I positioned clients in a company called Global Marine at $.60, because it had great assets to stock price. As I rememeber a few years later it was taken out in the $20's. Same effect with these golds.
BENGB.ob is the one I most favor. A crude analysis of their reports shows for everey $4 market cap, there is an ounce of gold and 26 pounds of copper, just in the KingKIng range. Big cap, big name golds like ABX trade as high as 25X that.
"Posted by: willcan
In reply to: Bernard_Barouk who wrote msg# 67587 Date:1/24/2003 8:24:54 PM
Post #of 68974
BB, Do they have enough cash to reopen/restart? I don't get it..
>>VGZ - Only American miner that is debt free and ready to rock and role with big gold ore ranges to go through.
For the nine months ended
9/30/02, the company reports no revenues vs. $817 thousand prior. Net loss according
to U.S. GAAP totalled $4.1 million, up from $1.2 million. Revenues reflect the stoppage
of gold production. Higher loss also suffered from unfavorable U.S. GAAP adjustments
Posted by: Bernard_Barouk
In reply to: ItsAllCyclical who wrote msg# 67565 Date:1/23/2003 10:58:43 AM
Post #of 68974
Gold stocks will roar as we breach 372 and move to 415. Gold stocks in general have lagged, but some of the smaller mines have been totally ignored.
CUSIF.ob - big ore, mine in place, all waiting for is assurance $350 is a new bottom.
BENGB.ob - Peso collapse has made this potentially the lowest price copper and gold producers in the world.
VGZ - Only American miner that is debt free and ready to rock and role with big gold ore ranges to go through.
What do they all have in common? They were mothballed when gold hit the 200's.
These miners will creep up to be 4-8X in the next 6 months to a year waiting for mine opening announcements, at which time they will sharply correct.
They won't be laggards long with today's action carrying forward."
Gold Commercials NEVER pervail. Study carefully.
http://lvlamb.itgo.com/charts/20020909/cotau.png
Posted by: ItsAllCyclical
In reply to: porter who wrote msg# 67586 Date:1/23/2003 11:04:45 AM
Post #of 67597
>> The Commercials always prevail. <<
WRONG. Look at the '93 run in gold to 400+. Commercials were short the entire time. There are quite a bit more FA items in alignment on this run. Commercials will get crushed.
Gold stocks will roar as we breach 372 and move to 415. Gold stocks in general have lagged, but some of the smaller mines have been totally ignored.
CUSIF.ob - big ore, mine in place, all waiting for is assurance $350 is a new bottom.
BENGB.ob - Peso collapse has made this potentially the lowest price copper and gold producers in the world.
VGZ - Only American miner that is debt free and ready to rock and role with big gold ore ranges to go through.
What do they all have in common? They were mothballed when gold hit the 200's.
These miners will creep up to be 4-8X in the next 6 months to a year waiting for mine opening announcements, at which time they will sharply correct.
They won't be laggards long with today's action carrying forward.
Posted by: ItsAllCyclical
In reply to: None Date:1/23/2003 10:31:57 AM
Post #of 67582
THE RECOVERY IS HERE!!!!
Not the economy stupid, gold. Looks like the start of a new multi-year gold bull as we took out multi-year resistance lines today. Dollar index broke 100. Now all we need is for the HUI to break 155.
Long KGC, WHT, BGO, HL
With modern mining techniques, cash cost of $200 an ounce for the KingKing very doable, once up and running.
Posted by: oeo2oo
In reply to: Bernard_Barouk who wrote msg# 66818 Date:1/21/2003 2:59:29 PM
Post #of 67071
Bernard,
What is their expected cash cost per ounce if they restart KingKing?
oeo2oo
The reason BENGB.ob is down was $255 gold mothballed existing mines and has delayed start-up of the KingKing. Benguet was the 4th largest gold and copper miner in the world in 1986, among peers such as BHP, Cyprus Amax and Freeport-Macmoran. Bre-X never "was" anything.
Posted by: Vegas_Man
In reply to: Bernard_Barouk who wrote msg# 66811 Date:1/21/2003 12:00:30 PM
Post #of 66815
So basically they bought these mines with a ton of gold and copper and the stock sells off from $8 to $0.17. Sounds a little Bre-X ish to me.
VM
Posted by: Bernard_Barouk
In reply to: Vegas_Man who wrote msg# 66788 Date:1/21/2003 11:57:20 AM
Post #of 66815
Why did ECO pay $20MM at BENGB.ob to develop the KingKing range, bankrupting themsleves in process?
Because the KingKing range 6 million ozs gold, and 3 billions lbs of copper.
This comes out to paying $4.00 for each ounce of gold and 26 pounds of copper in the ground.
Go to www.benguet.conm and do your own research.
This stock is at .17, all time high of $8 BEFORE KingKing was discovered.
My original post was just the technical consideration of when it makes the next leg up. Last leg up was a 3x, and tech look good for turn here.
Gold stocks are what I trade for a living, since retiring from a big NYC wire house.
"Posted by: Vegas_Man
In reply to: Bernard_Barouk who wrote msg# 66786 Date:1/21/2003 11:16:45 AM
Post #of 66806
Re: BENGB
whats up with this stock?? Ive seen lots of pumping for this stock the last couple of days, but still cant find any reason why someone would want to own it.
VM"
"Ready to turn up?
by: DASH_RIVIERA 01/21/03 11:01 am
Msg: 80488 of 80509
Will it go as far as last time?
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/research/chart.gsp?lotemp=&period=30020&chart1=ma &s=BENGB&compare=&time=30m&i0=3&chart=bar&i1=6&scale=linear&i2=10&i3=9
Why did ECO pay $20MM at BENGB.ob to develop the KingKing range, bankrupting themsleves in process?
Because the KingKing range 6 million ozs gold, and 3 billions lbs of copper.
This comes out to paying $4.00 for each ounce of gold and 26 pounds of copper in the ground.
Go to www.benguet.conm and do your own research.
This stock is at .17, all time high of $8 BEFORE KingKing was discovered.
My original post was just the technical consideration of when it makes the next leg up. Last leg up was a 3x, and tech look good for turn here.
Gold stocks are what I trade for a living, since retiring from a big NYC wire house.
"Posted by: Vegas_Man
In reply to: Bernard_Barouk who wrote msg# 66786 Date:1/21/2003 11:16:45 AM
Post #of 66806
Re: BENGB
whats up with this stock?? Ive seen lots of pumping for this stock the last couple of days, but still cant find any reason why someone would want to own it.
VM"
"Ready to turn up?
by: DASH_RIVIERA 01/21/03 11:01 am
Msg: 80488 of 80509
Will it go as far as last time?
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/research/chart.gsp?lotemp=&period=30020&chart1=ma &s=BENGB&compare=&time=30m&i0=3&chart=bar&i1=6&scale=linear&i2=10&i3=9
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/research/chart.gsp?lotemp=&period=30020&chart1=ma&s=BENGB...
BENGB.ob look like a turn?
Will it rise as far % wise as last time?
"Posted by: WarrenTSI
In reply to: None Date:1/21/2003 11:02:06 AM
Post #of 66783
Gold bouncing here. get ready . . . Hi Rich"
Gold 418 (micro-cap golds 5x from here)in cards, when breaks next resistance 374 (micro-cap golds 2x from here).
Don't take my word for it, Alan Newman is right a lot:
http://www.cross-currents.net/charts.htm
Micro-golds perfect way to be short general stock market here, without premium decay.
AU at 358! Huge technical breakout. Am heavily in CUISF.ob, CALVF.ob, GSS, BGO, VGZ and BENGB.ob.
BENG.ob is a laggard today on technical selling, and could swilng wildly as gold stocks rocket up here. Trading at .19, but would expect run to .75 in next month on this kind of gold action. Look at BENGB on www.bigcharts.com back 20 years.
Write up ob BGO board I found:
BENGB, the National mining corporation of the Philippines. A 100+ year old company. Used to be NYSE listed. Inherited a 20 million dollar King-King mine in Mindinao, Southernmost Island from Eco Bay after the POG fell and Eco decided to ditch it rather than pay the lease payments. Roads all built, some buildings I guess. I don't know of the mine was really built. Alot of infrastructure was. A gold/copper phoriphery, means gold mixed with copper ore like Cassale and Las Cristas. Plus they have like 20 other smaller gold mines that sit on bigger deposites all over the PI. They had Arthur Anderson for accountants and whether the books were cooked I can't say. The shut down mines in hibernation have no books anyway, so there wasn't much to cook. So after they got new accountants, the new guys couldn't get the forms filed in time and they missed the SEC registration deadline and the Bengb boy fell to 5-6 cents where I bought 80,000 shares on that day. So it has low float as does APLL. Muslim wildcaters are poking around some of the claims. They probably pay some royalty bribe to be allowed on there. IMO. As the deposit becomes more valuable, the payment required to "keep the peace" will go up. The surface sluice game will not be able to pay and they will all have a fight. The corporation would probably just hire them to be the workers to start up the mine since they are already there. IMO. So that's the stock I just bought back into. The USA has always believed "a war can get you out of a down cycle" since the war of 1812 we have "had a war following a financial bust" they were sometimes years apart but the pattern is symbiotic. So the war on terror is going forward. The US needs jungles to train the commandos. That is why they were in the PI before. To train for the S. American war on drugs that may still be going on, probably always will be. So where do you think the troop training will go after the RICH AS A VANDERBUILT Royal PI families want to mine gold. They will make some nice contributions to some wonderful candidates and the "Troops for hire" will arrive to clear away the mining areas. Or they'll hire their own army to force them to be hired. It's all weird PI politics. I try to read between the lines. Another real guerilla goldstock. I like it way more than APLL. There is another apollo gold in Canada and this APLL is a different one. You can try both or BENGB. At 12 cents and a rising POG to $400 and beyond eventually? Why did Eco Bay spend 20 MILLION on King-King.
Just my thoughts, do your own due dili.
INTC Disaster - CAPEX WAY WAY WAY OFF
RealCommentary from TheStreet.com
Intel's Big Splash Will Be Capex Budget
Tuesday January 14, 1:01 pm ET
By James J. Cramer,
Addicted to short-term Wall Street gibberish? Here's your fix on Intel (NasdaqNM:INTC - News), which reports after the close. The betting's shaping up like this: The bulls want to see $7.1 billion in revenue (the benchmark set by Salomon Smith Barney Monday). The bears want to see something below $6.97 billion. The bears want to see 13 cents; the bulls want 15 cents. To me, that means we'll get $7.1 billion and 14 cents; the stock will go up a little bit and then we'll focus on Microsoft (NasdaqNM:MSFT - News) and IBM (NYSE:IBM - News), both of which have more upside than Intel.
But, get this: Capital expenditure stocks are the true drivers here. When Intel unveils its capital budget, if we see north of $4.6 billion, you can see the Novellus (NasdaqNM:NVLS - News)-KLA-Tencor (NasdaqNM:KLAC - News) basket vault 2.5 points. If we see south of $4 billion, you can see that contingent swoon 4 points.
Gold, time to buy. BENGB.ob, CUSIF.ob, CALV.ob
Posted by: Paul A
In reply to: Zeev Hed who wrote msg# 64098 Date:1/13/2003 11:00:36 AM
Post #of 64197
great- I start breathing a sigh of relief with my shorts seeing that gap get sold, and now I come here to find you redeploying!!!
Thats not what I wanted to see Zeev.. I wanted to see you posting furiously about how todays action confirms the run to the hills call etc etc..
: )
Heh if you don't want to look into Benguet, cool.
But you might want to go look at their site. It may have a market cap of only $20MM now, but it was the 4th largest mining company in the world, in there with Asraco, BHP and Cyprus Amax. It has huge idle gold and copper properties.
NOBODY remembers it. I do.
Good gold call by this guy on DROOY Yahoo board. He seems to have a good handle on the gold market.
"BUY OPP NOW - reprised"
by: DASH_RIVIERA 01/03/03 12:03 pm
Msg: 76004 of 76004
"BUY OPP NOW - reprised
by: DASH_RIVIERA 12/31/02 11:58 am
Msg: 75331 of 76003
Gold looks excellent and right on track.
"BUY OPP NOW
by: DASH_RIVIERA 12/30/02 03:26 pm
Msg: 75127 of 75330
Colin Powell talking down N. Korean situation, somewhat, gave the gold market an excuse to correct.
Quick corrections are what one looks for in a bull market, and that is what we just got.
Hourlies on gold stocks have bottomed and turning.
Buy opp....DROOY, CUSIF.ob, GSS, BGO and BENGB.ob.
Still like BENGB.ob (Benguet Corp.) the best. Absolutely no one follows but has multi-decade track record. Real sleeper. 5X in 3-6 months?
Up 60% in past month and it is just waking up. Trading at 1/20th of 1987 high."
Posted as a reply to: Msg 75127 by DASH_RIVIERA"
BENGB.ob, good blurb below by a poster on DROOY board.
Have been folloing it for over a decade. Generally trails a few days behind GSS and CUSIF.ob (great gold barometers), so still time to get some to catch next leg.
"Re: Anyone know about BENGB?
by: BensonInvestor (M/Atlanta, GA)
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 01/02/03 07:47 am
Msg: 51907 of 52030
That was me buying BENGB on Tuesday. I reported this to the DROOY board late Tuesday (see my post). Yes, I did change my mind, and I like BENGB now.
My post from DROOY board late Tuesday. Note there were one or two replies, also relevant...
http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=1601028319&tid=drooy&sid=160 1028319&mid=75432
Colin Powell talking down N. Korean situation, somewhat, gave the gold market an excuse to correct.
Quick corrections are what one looks for in a bull market, and that is what we just got.
Hourlies on gold stocks have bottomed and turning.
Buy opp....CUSIF.ob, GSS, BGO and BENGB.ob.
Still like BENGB.ob (Benguet Corp.) the best. Absolutely no one follows but has multi-decade track record. Real sleeper. 5X in 3-6 months?
Up 60% in past month and it is just waking up. Trading at 1/20th of 1987 high.
Posted by: Public Heel
In reply to: None Date:12/30/2002 1:03:32 PM
Post #of 59998
Bottom fell out of Gold... dropped $7 in just a few minutes...