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Thanks Fernando - that's a good rule of thumb and puts their EPS growth at about 20%. My feeling is that this rally might be constrained until they announce how they plan on putting the money to work and provide updated guidance.
CCME 2010 guidance question
Although their guidance for 2010 is $71M-$75M net income, they should have about 40M shares. This doesn't provide much upside from the $1.81 2009 eps.
I know this excludes future acquisitions, etc - does anyone have expectations for what additional revenue/net income could come from putting their cash to work?
Thanks! I bought a bit just for the fundamentals...the WC/share and the fact that Q3 should see improvement from the increase in steel activity. But will wait on confirmation of news before anything else. Appreciate the email though.
ChinaStockPicker - isn't laby the CFO here now? Have you written her lately?
Thanks Glen.
I agree that the email doesn't contain much that's new.
The economy has caused quite a number of companies to layoff staff and make hard choices about expenses such as office space or selling investments at a loss and moving on. It's especially painful when small companies get successful real fast, add expenses they might otherwise not have added, and then have to pull back. How many other NYC financial companies/staff have just had to close their doors?
The question is whether this has all been reflected in the pps or not, and whether the future looks more promising than the past.
Earnings posted - much better revenues but worsening margins and AR's. Allowance for doubtful accounts at $1.8M versus $731k just a quarter ago. They're pretty much out of cash, having had to get advances in April/May from the CEO just to keep going.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1070361/000114544309001212/d24868-10q.htm
Now Shooter is ranked 15th with 52 reviews. 4 stars.
A few of the concerns mentioned were mid-mission saving, controls and load time.
Already ranked 48 in the US app store with 4 1/2 stars on 36 reviews.
Strong - As an investor I hope asking questions and having a public discourse isn't seen as over reacting?
I read back over my post this morning and I think it's a fair appraisal of relevant areas of interest to all of us. And I don't think it's an emotional post. If so, I apologize as that's not what I intended.
I'm a shareholder at $1.77 and I simply have some questions that it'd be nice to get some feedback on. Once I feel comfortable that my questions are appropriate, I usually do simply contact IR or the CFO if there's still something to clarify. So if you have input on the following, great!
Slowing revenues is a change in the story - I don't think it's catastrophic in this market, but it's something that should be acknowledged and discussed.
Decreasing margins is a larger flag and it'd be nice to have any input from your or others whether you see it as the same concern.
AR isn't catastrophic either but its worth looking at closely and the CEO should be more careful to help us understand the context, especially in this economic climate.
- It's great that 44% was current at 12/31, but what about the $7.6M that > 3 months and some of it > 6 months? Without us having access to past data all the CEO has to say is that this is consistent with the past and I think we'd all be happy.
- I don't think I'd be worried about the last bullet if I didn't read that they've only collected 4% of the total AR since 12/31.
- As much as I was encouraged by curlew's post, it seems to me that the numbers the CEO gave are off. AR grew 170% compared to revenue growth of 290%.
So I've had a chance to review the 10k and the flurry of comments here and mostly I have the same sentiment.
They had a great year, but a poor fourth quarter, made worse by the fact that the CEO is leaving the public to guess on details by not doing a cc. In this market, this only leads to rapid price drops as people exit first, ask questions later.
- They could have done a better job putting into perspective fourth quarter sales, especially with expectations running high with the iPhone/Adnoid platform release. You have to backtrack a bit, but if you take out the Q3 reseller agreement then we have a 6.5% increase from both Q2 to Q3 and from Q3 to Q4, but still - yoy growth has slowed dramatically and this kind of decrease scares people away.
- Why were the margins down significantly in Q4? They added $4M in G&A and Engineering/cost of sales in the fourth quarter - with G&A in Q4 being greater than for the first nine months? Maybe there is a good reason but it should be explained much better than "The decrease of net income was mainly due to the effect of a one time provision for a doubtful account of $731,500 in Q4 2008 and a one time gain from the extinction of liabilities of $685,130 in Q4 2007." Adding $700k back into the net income still comes up real short of where the number should be.
- I am concerned about A/R. They can't be proud of the fact that in almost a month and a half they only collected 4% of the outstanding receivables? "As of February 9, 2009, approximately $548,000 of this amount had been collected." Again, give some commentary on why this is and what's being done about it so they don't have to issue shares to fund growth.
A great year - not a good fourth quarter. Without a cc to explain a bit more I think we'll see this go down quite a bit. There's a gap at 1 that might be filled. Hopefully not.
Just my initial reaction. I need to spend some time later with the 10k.
Maybe you're right about the forced selling. It certainly looks like ALIF is trading right in line with the NASDAQ rather than trading on its own merit.
This is an ALIF chart with the NASDAQ behind it.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ALIF&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p02169809322
Thanks Mike.
I guess it's safe to assume that with global distributors and carriers like they have, the market for ALIF's products probably reflects the overall cell phone market distribution?
Have you ever seen/heard a description of how their revenue agreements work with some of their partners? For example, are they paid a one-time fee for development or per download or a combination of both? Also, it'd be nice to know the breakout of revenue by product type.
I guess this is all just me trying to better understand how the economy might affect them. Because I just can't figure out why a company with ALIF's diversified products, growth history, growth potential and current assets is trading for such a cheap valuation.
The only thing that comes to mind is that the market thinks that the gaming market will suffer with a down economy.
Mobile game growth and questions
Interesting thoughts from Jupiter on the no-growth of mobile gaming over the next few years.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Mobile-Games-Market-Reach-10bn/story.aspx?guid=%7BA6007CBF-9878-4BE3-B239-078D8F52C2FB%7D
I was wondering how ALIF might fare next year based on their regional concentration of business and I was surprised by the following line in their 07 10k.
In 2007, 79% of total revenues were generated from two European companies, 16% from two South African companies and 5% from U.S. and Asian companies. At December 31, 2007, the Company has 45 customers, of which four major customers accounted for 95% of total revenue in 2007: customer A, 52%; customers B, 27%; customer C, 10%; and customer D, 6%. Customers A and B accounted for 57% and 30% of total accounts receivable at December 31, 2007.
I know this was from 2007 and ALIF has grown since, but I didn't realize they were so concentrated:
Any insight from the board on:
- Is there an updated regional concentration?
- Who their customers are and how those customers might be affected by the recession?
May your ability to closely estimate rev's and earnings continue!
So you're looking for a high 60% NI margin in Q4? How do you arrive at that, base on last year's Q4?
It's anybody's guess, but I was thinking that with all the new games released and increasing popularity of 3G in the US that revenues would be higher in Q3. On the expense side however, even though some costs would be cut I figured the US office and a hiring ramp-up would keep expenses about the same.
Either way I suppose everything is just getting getting pounded these days, ALIF included.
Maybe if they stop releasing new games the price will go up? They should especially avoid the iPod. I mean, that's, like, suicide. No one uses that.
Mike,
I'm from the IV board - at one point you had thought that Q2 earnings might double Q1. Obviously that's not the case - as you've looked through their 10q I'm curious what didn't come in line with your original expectations?
From what I can see revenues were up nicely, but they added shares and expenses increased. I have to do some more dd but it doesn't look bad at these levels given the revenue increases.
http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=7077&mn=12&pt=msg&mid=4797290