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Bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered..
Wouldn't you want to take a little off the table with over a 100% return?
Goofy trading in this stock over the last few days...
So many cross currents.. On one hand, if the Rida results were bad, Merck and Ariad would have revealed that by now.. On the other hand, I fully expect the the efficacy will be different between the different cancer types, but is it good enough to file the NDA. Wow, this is a tough call..
I hate to see insider selling just before a pivital event, even if it is a scant 25,000 shares. But our good friend LAMARCHE, JAY R just did that in today's FORM 4 filing.... Now, if the Harv gets in the act, well, that is a different story..
Hammer time...............
Nope.. However, A.F. from the Street was suppose to be there blogging as much as he could.. But, he is not a very good stock picker either..just a data feed....
Actually, he walked out of the breakout session with a strut....
oldberkeley, the results on Rida will be disclosed in Q1 2011
Yeah, this was starting to sound like the Enron board..
We just punctured the left rear tire....
At the conclusion of the data analysis of the phase III trial with Ridaforolimus, if, for example, the PFS is double or triple for soft tissue sarcoma, and not as effective for bone sarcoma, knowing that this is a 650 patient trial, and if the number of patients with just the soft tissue sarcoma is big enough, why can't Merck file an NDA for just soft tissue sarcoma? Why couldn't you do that?
What do you make of this:
As we mentioned in Prohost article, “Ariad Gets Good News on Its Endometrial Cancer Drug”, many scientists believe that the longer half-life of Ariad’s mTOR inhibitor ridaforolimus gives it an advantage over other mTOR inhibitors.
Added to the fact that endometrial cancer is the most common cancer of the female reproductive system and its advanced cases have virtually no effective treatments, we are tilted to believe that if Ariad’s ridaforolimus is approved, the drug’s market penetration would be strong, probably over $1 billion in the first year. The revenues are expected to double in the second year. Adding the revenues expected from additional approvals of the drug for other cancers, total revenues could reach $3-$4 billion in sales in 2015.
I sure did like the slide refresh in Harv's presentation today..
The medically great news is Jerry has put on a little weight...
And, a measley $5 mill at that..
I wouldn't think so as '113 is still a long ways behind.. Heck, the way the analyist did the discounted cashflow model for Pona, he could have just as well added $1.50 to the sp for '113 in 2015.
I hope they wait until March 31st to release the Ridaforolimus results, and we go up 20 cents a day from here, until then...
It's sweet what ever it is........
As I look all the way back to 2007, what makes this a huge disappointment, medically, from the orginal $1 billion deal Ariad had with Merck, is all the millions spent on the phase III trial (approaching $300 million?? don't know the real sum), the 650 patients that are suffering a very difficult situation, the restructuring of the deal with Merck, and now the wall street "experts" say all this is only worth $3 per share, and doesn't matter.. The real value is in Pona. Really makes you wonder...
In a second study, ARIAD performed direct comparative studies on AP26113 and PF1066 (PFE's drug) in a series of ALK-dependent cell culture and in vivo models. In all models, AP26113 was at least ten-fold more potent than PF1066. In addition, AP26113 exhibited approximately 100-fold selectivity for ALK-positive cell lines compared with an approximate 10-fold selectivity for PF1066, and demonstrated excellent properties, including the potential for once-daily oral dosing.
Again, this is all in-vitro, so it will be awhile (6 months?) before it just begins any phase 1 clinicals.
vidpok45, don't forget AP26113, Ariad's ALK inhibitor, a highly selective inhibitor with superior drug-like properties. It is way too early to claim any efficacy, however, in 18 months or so, we will have a better profile of Ariad's third compound..
IIIverson, OBV and RSI are absolutely bullish.. I don't much care about TA, but the chart on Ariad has sure caught my attention NOW..
I know that other biotechs like to sell the "futures", but I truly believe that the future in Ariad is Pona, and the ALK compound.. Rida is just there..
bladerun, I would expect that Merck will look at their preliminary results for the following indications before getting out the check book:
Breast cancer
Endometrial cancer
Prostate cancer
Non-small cell lung cancer
Sarcomas (Japan)
Other solid tumors
Pediatrics
I would...wouldn't you??
I fully expect we will have one more dilution round as Harvey is firmly committed to make this a standalone oncology company..
My hope of hope is that Rida is successful, and the resultant cash flow from Merck on approval of Rida will allow Ariad to issue some debt, and leave us shareholders alone for awhile.
JP Morgan Healthcare Conference, January 12th:
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?p=irol-eventDetails&c=118422&eventID=3630468
BTH, you may want to re-read this to understand the relationship between a stock's SP, and short covering.. plus, volume was under the trend yesterday..
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=58195250
BioTechHedge, you fully missed the point of my post.. IF short covering occured today, the share price would have went UP, not DOWN like it did.. kapesh??
I think we can all agree, that BTH's "analysis" that today was the last day for short covering, was incorrect... to wit:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ARIA+Basic+Chart&t=1d
Can you say, "Endometrial Cancer" phase II results.. Your mixing your Sarcomas up with other indications..
Phase II Rida results as a standalone agent:
There's a big gap between "suspect" and great results where you stop the trial...
By the way, Merck ran the trial, not Ariad...
http://seekingalpha.com/article/238133-ariad-gets-good-news-on-its-endometrial-cancer-drug?source=yahoo
MotionMan, it was answered for you in Jan Dekker's response:
It's all about the potential of the POSSIBLE other indications:
Breast cancer
Endometrial cancer
Prostate cancer
Non-small cell lung cancer
Sarcomas (Japan)
Other solid tumors
Pediatrics
There are a couple of oncology stocks out there that have a little revenue, no earnings, and are at $24 per share at this time.. Mr. Market will establish the reasoning and link..
Rosenberg should be lumped together now with Meridth Whitney. Rosenberg left a 100% return on the table. When he was booted back to Canada, some investors still embraced his advice, now that his bearish stance contiunes after the market has gained 80% off the lows, how many people still let his firm manage their money?
Meridth Whitney claims "hundreds of billions" in local government debt will go insolvent. There was a great article in the NYT over the last few days that completely proves that Whitney does not know what she is talking about, with some pretty convincing statistics.
Both Rosenberg and Whitney made the correct call at the top, Rosenberg for the market, and Whitney for the banks. However, just like the bullish gawkers at the top of the tech boom and the housing boom, they didn't known when to switch their position after their correct calls.
Without question, the economic recovery is strengthening, may be not with job creation yet, but it will clearly follow..
With this HUGE run up, and now a basing pattern with no pull back, this bodes well for the immediate share price, IMHO.
IMHO, even more important, is that preliminary phase I results indicate, that Pona can arrest/block the T315I mutation from mutating in the first place. In other words, with Pona, you lessen the chance in developing the T315I mutation. Read that information in the last Pona update. That will certainly cause Pona to move to the first level of treatment for certain CML patients. Some doctors will provide their patients the Lexus treatment..
Well, it is...
I'm expecting something like this:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=HGSI&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
Total revenue for 2010 is $156 million, with a loss of -$1.17. In 2011, total revenue is ONLY GROWING to $194 million, and STILL a loss of -$1.18. Share price today is $25 per share..
I'm going to start a Biotech company in the new year..
Trying to bust it....
At least we now know why David Rosenberg left Merrill, and moved (forced) back to Canada..