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I love your posts, man! You are hysterical!
I've booked a $5,000 and a $10,000 loss in a single day in my time. Once I almost lost $20,000, but ended down about $2800 by day's end. Those are my most memorable losses. It's numbing and it took a while to get past all three of them, but you do get past it.
A couple of people mentioned that price must match, but partial fills are possible. I'm wondering if it is because there is no centralized book. IE orders in each broker are not reaching across ECNs. This would mean that if your broker doesn't have many customers interested in PGPM you will have less liquidity than other brokers might have.
Thanks for the heads up, head! Looks like I'm def switching to TD.
No, I believe the programmers designed the order ticket to reject with that message when bid ask is 0x0 because ALL orders are rejected. I cannot even enter a sell at the last sale. I thought it might be Scottrade's way of saying, "no electronic trading in the greys." BUT, I looked up USNL which is in the greys and I was able to review my order, which is one step further than I can get with PGPM and I'm guessting it's because USNL is showing price and size at bid/ask. I think they just have an in-house restriction on PGPM right now. Gotta call them up and bitch about it.
I have Scottrade. The order ticket can be filled out on the phone app, but when you try to review it, the message is that the price entered is too far away from the current market because the bid/ask is 0x0. If I can't do electronic trades I'm just sitting with it for now. I might call them and put in some staggered sells at hail mary prices because I don't see a point in selling until December. Not sure if a browser login would be different, but worth a try.
They were bought by TD and I was told by a rep the accounts will be merged in the fall, but I think I'm just going to go through the trouble of opening the TD account now.
Then how do you explain the ACTUAL 1.38 million short interest reported for 14 months in a row in 2008-2009?
I'm sure you would agree that one should not underestimate the amount of capital someone would commit to something when they are so sure of it. Look at how much money Mann sunk into MNKD. $900 million, and today the market cap of the stock is $136 million.
I'm not sure exactly what probability to assign to a short position and what size it would be, but there are two things combined here that push the needle towards the possible side of the meter.
The first one is that we never got to see the short interest for the period of June 16 to 30 for some reason. We were due that report in early July and the powers that be never disclosed the info. Not saying there's collusion by the reporting agency, but it would obscure any short position that had one day left to cover exept for the fact that PGPM got suspended.
The second point is that back in May 2008 short interest was reported at exactly 1,388,889 and, barring some occasional excursions above that number, it stayed there until July 2009. The exact same number of shares short repeatedly showing for 14 months.
I'm not saying that flying spaghetti monsters exist, but if something is possible it's possible. The trick is assigning probabilities.
Having said that, I agree that with yesterday's volume any realistically sized short position has already covered. Especially with actual data that shows us an example of where short interest can be in this stock (a relatively high 1.3 million shrs). Even at a short of 10 million shrs the volume probably would have gotten them out of a good chunk of their position yesterday. Plenty of people around who were absolutely confident about PGPM's demise. What's the annual rate of return on the hypothetical $40,000 profit for, let's say, 3 weeks of exposure? A high value client could negotiate a lower maintenance requirement. Let's say $5,000,000 covers 10,000,000 shrs. So, $40,000 x 17.38 = $695k in one year. That's 13.9% annualized and a rock star return on wall st based on the commonly quoted average 7% return of the broad market.
Janice would probably know for sure about this but I believe you can have knowledge of material non-public information and that alone is not necessarily a problem, but only if you make financial decisions based on that information is it a real problem I.E. if you make a trade based on it. Having said that, I prefer to keep my distance from management in these small stocks. I think DD is very important, but honestly I'm more of a trader-investor hybrid. I try to protect myself from unknowns with risk management of my position.
First trade 0.001 for 100,000
Still has the last sale from the halt. I don't see any volume yet.
Must be what Bama said about DTC. It seems it's still not open for trading
Bid ask is 0.00 x 0.00 so any order I enter is "too far away from last market" and prevented from being entered
This is my first grey stock. I'm surprised we are able to enter orders electronically. I put in a test order for USNL to see if my broker allows online trading of grey market and it does. I thought we would have to speak to a broker over the phone. I even see a bid and ask for USNL - price and size info is there. I will say it doesn't look like it's trading much.
I can bring up the order ticket for PGPM now, but it doesn't like my price
Wow, gagged by the company? The public should be allowed access to that information to verify.
Thanks. Very comprehensive answer. That's what people need now.
Question for the board:
Can the transfer agent provide exact dates and share amounts regarding when new shares hit the market? If we call them up, will they tell us that?
Still, we don't have the report and I'm wondering why.
Yeah confirmed it's not there. I scrolled all the way to page 193 and Pilgrim is missing. We don't have the report for short interest in the June 16 to 30 period.
Huh? DBMM?
This is PGPM. We are missing the short interest data for June 16 to 30.
The 800 shares is from the June 15th short interest notice. We have been suspended through a full reporting cycle and haven't seen the data for June 30 yet. The suspension was in force on the last day of the 2 week period ending June 30th. It is possible there could be open short positions that didn't have a chance to cover. When will we see the June 30th short interest report? It lags, doesn't it?
Very helpful. I'm sure folks here appreciate the info. If you are going to pay a high commission for these transactions you may as well make them work for it.
And waiting a bit gives you a chance to see trades going off at other brokers when they are reported to the tape. That gives you a fuller picture than just the in-house orders at your broker.
Ok, so the strategy I spoke about earlier of scaling your orders at multiple prices can help discover liquidity in this situation. Thanks. But does the broker see all the orders? Can you ask where they are at and discover liquidity that way?
LOL, all hot dogs are fake!
So, price AND size must match? The broker can see the price and size info, can't she? What about counter-offers?
You want a hot dog with that relish?
So the broker holds private bids and offers it seems. How are they matched? How is the price set? Is it a price-time system like a dealer market or parity-priority system like NYSE? Will they call other brokers to find a counterparty for the transaction?
I don't know for sure what happens Monday morning. All I can suggest is think of all possible scenarios and be ready for them. Here's what determines prices: Prices will move higher when buyers are more aggressive OR sellers are nervous and demand a premium. Prices will move lower when sellers are more aggressive OR buyers are nervous and demand a discount. It's the interplay between BOTH sides that sets prices. How many people are out there like me, who are willing to wait and see versus how many people are fed up and just want out versus how many who are looking to buy? My guess for a strategy if you want out would be to put in a scale order which is several smaller orders at price intervals adding up to the total amount you would like to sell. I.E. holding 100,000 shrs and enter to sell 40,000@.0020, sell 30,000@.0035, sell 30,000@.0050. This will increase your likelihood of at least a partial liquidation if you are too optimistic on your price estimate, but not by much. You would get better prices on at least some of your shares if you underestimated the demand and got fills on all of them. If you overestimated demand and got filled on none, then you should edit the highest offer and set it below your lowest until you get a fill OR wait it out to see if anyone else puts up a print and see where it is. I have never traded the grey market and I am not so sure exactly what the transaction rules are, but I suspect the downside to putting in orders early before anyone else is that if they were willing to pay more than your sale price or sell for less than your buy price then they would be the one getting the price improvement because you are already on the book and they would be taking your offer or hitting your bid. The benefit would be that if interest dries up quickly you may have gotten some of the first and only fills at those prices because you were early and the first on the order book. If you are on the buy side of this, honestly I don't see any reason to bid all that high. I guess the company could come out with more PRs but the internet gumshoes are telling us the party is over. The question is how many buyers and sellers will actually be participating in the game or just watching. Will lower prices attract more buyers or more sellers? I.E.: wow that's cheap I'm buying VS wow it's tanking I'd better sell before it goes lower. Will higher prices attract more buyers or more sellers? I.E.: wow it's running I'd better buy VS wow that's a gift I'd better sell up there while I can.
I am having a hard time finding specific details about exactly how orders are matched in the Grey Market. I did not have time to call my broker to ask about it either. So I don't even know if some of my thoughts above are pertinent because I don't know enough about grey market order handling.
As traders we have no control over the ebb and flow of the market for the stocks we are in and under normal circumstances the most control we have is the ability to buy or sell our shares in a fairly transparent and liquid market. On the grey market, we have lost much of that control.
All just my opinion.
You and I are in a similar situation, both in this for years now and sold a good portion, although I am still holding 2 mil shrs because I started to expand my position again on the dip. Hurts to see it potentially all at risk but still ahead, though, if I lose the rest. Anyway, I started selling on the way up and way early. That's definitely part of it and you are already ahead despite the suspension. As far as risk management, I've written before that as a rule you should not put a whole lot into these pennies as a percentage of your total capital. If you're putting $10,000 into this, I'd expect you to at least have $100,000 in your account and you should tweak that ratio to suit you but favor less rather than more. And expect that a 100% loss is possible. You need to have price targets. Your position cannot be static forever. If you do not sell anything you will not realize gains. Enter in increments. Exit in increments. You're a surfer, you can't control the waves in the ocean, you are riding them. Look at the website stockconsultant.com. Put a stock in there and study what it is telling you. Risk/reward, stop loss, support, resistance, probabilities. Learn to read the chart. This is what you should be doing. You need to have a plan. Also, realize when you are chasing. If you are late to the party, you need to get out if you're at your full intended position size up there and it's going against you. If you got into this at 0001 it's different than 001 or 01. Before you can put this all together to make it work consistently, trade SMALL - the tuition is cheaper. All this information can be found out there on the web for free if you look for it. It also helps to know about the macro picture - the Fed, the economy, sectors, business cycles, trading environment, and don't forget your DD of course. Monitor news and filings and of course you guys are already here on the board and lots of DD is here. Look what everybody has to say and weigh it all and make your own decisions. Some people look at a guy like Clay with a suspicious eye, but what he has is a trader community. Yeah, you have to pay, but you can learn from others that way. I am not a member, but I watched just one of his trader talk videos on YouTube, episode 13 I think, and that's what you need to be hearing. One comment was baseball players batting .300 are in the hall of fame, I think I put that one in a post here before. They said traders can be right 55% of the time and still make money. Why? Risk and money management.
All just my humble opinion, of course.
Some people like supplements, some people don't. Some people like penny stocks, some people don't. Honestly, I have no problem having frank discussions with anyone pro or con on the boards. We challenge them, they challenge us, and we all learn from it. It's called discussion.
Ok, let's try this. Does anyone want to talk about trading strategies and risk management so you don't get stuck with a big loss on suspended stocks, and maybe even come out ahead even if that happens?
Some like to take multivitamins, some like to trade penny stocks
I don't think so. I don't take supplements myself. I had a high school science teacher who was asked if supplements really work and he answered with a grin, "Do people buy them?" Unless you have a true deficiency in a specific and necessary element that your doctor can identify and prescribe for you, a balanced diet is all you need to get the vitamins you need. For common ailments I tend to stay away from supplements that claim to help and just go with the well-researched remedies.
Yes, the dominant political mood right now is anti-regulation. It's what made the supplement industry explode, even though they may not be effective or contain what is claimed.
Well then otcmarkets should be shut down and we shouldn't allow any company that doesn't have the financial resources to hire good accountants and lawyers to trade publicly.
So fraud is permitted to run rampant on the otc markets? If so, then all the stocks there are just trading vehicles and should be treated as such.
Ok, thanks for your input. Honestly, it's above my pay grade since I'm not an attorney. I suppose you have a great deal of experience here. It is my understanding that neither the S.P.E., nor the F.A.S.B., nor G.A.A.P. is law. Where is the language stating that private companies and non-registrants must adhere to these rules? I was merely basing my theory on the fact that the title of that section of SEC law mentions only (SEC) Registrants.
Ok, cool. Thanks for your opinion.