ridin' the storm out
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Low valuation semi equips, here's my list---
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there ya have it, ;^)
personally, it's not the grammar I have a problem with, and maybe he does have some very good insights into parts of the market, I'm all open ears if that be the case... But, how do you take someone seriously who has been constantly declaring "to da moon" "DOW 16000" for almost 2 years now, during the worst bear market in history???
"that is BULL SHIT about me telling you or anyone else that a new bull market had begun in the Spring/Summer of 2001."
LG, I didn't exactly say you predicted a "new bull market", I said you were on the bullish side-- "I even remember you being on the bullish side in that time frame, telling me that we were still technically in a bull market from the 1974 trendline and expecting new highs."
Here's my post that you responded to--http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=15895534
Here's your response--http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=15895629
So your exact response was "this is just a correction in a long-term bull market"
Just want to clarify that I am not "manufacturing bullshit" here. This is just how I interpreted your post, sounded bullish to me.
I have no doubt that you were able to adjust to the market "fluctuations"... Congrats on your good trading. I as well bought the market on 7/23, sold two days later on the one-day wonder rally, waited for the re-test then re-entered on the test at 855 SPX and 920 NDX, all documented. Yes I already sold my positions, too soon as usual <g>, just can't resist those quick profits, especially in this market environment, and have just been scalping since. I expected this rally to end at Compx 1400ish SPX 950, not surprised it has extended a little from there.
I always keep in mind your very excellent advice with regards to trading this market-- Think like a criminal
LG... so what train are you on?
I just don't like to see people sucked in to the same "new bull market" crap, time and time again... How many people have bought into how many different new bull markets since March 2000 and lost their asses thinking they were boarding the "new train"?
da cheif has made 16000 calls for DOW 16000 since year 2000
Larry Dudash tried to scold me like a child because I didn't buy into his new bull market theory back in Spring/Summer of 2001... I even remember you being on the bullish side in that time frame, telling me that we were still technically in a bull market from the 1974 trendline and expecting new highs.
I'm glad I used my own judgement and stayed off "the train" of the bullish market gurus... As for Zeev, while some of his short term calls are not perfect (of course, no one is perfect short term), his long term trend prediction is what I have always agreed with--- a long unwinding of the bubble, once it popped... I think the bear still has unfinished business on the downside, and even after THE bottom could be just sideways gyrations for awhile.
cheifster, i'da thunk u wudda liked dem links, sorry ya dint preciate da humor
so we are on da verg of a new bull dat will make da 90's look like child's play huh??
well, looks like you have LG convinced anyway
to da moon! all on board, train's leavin da station!!
BTW, what is a cheif?... similiar to chaff?
Just got back in PIXR short @ 50.29
Placed an order for QQQ short @ 26.19, saw a 100,000 sh block execute at 26.2 at 15:32:58 but I didn't get filled... baastids!
Personally I think the end of this bear market will be a slow boring death, unfortunately that won't be good for traders like myself, but in the meantime there's some more volatility ahead.
IMF Cuts Outlook for Most Major Economies
Thu Aug 22,12:11 PM ET
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=580&e=4&cid=580&u=/nm/20020822/bs_n...
"post all of your trades when you do them, ROFLMAO"
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whoops, sorry for not reporting in a timely fashion <g>
Took the point gain on PIXR, will try for a higher re-entry
I kinda agree with your scenario of an EOM window-dress ramp then for reality to return for warning season, kinda like September of '00... problem is, there's still time to ramp em further before then, so I think I'll stick to mostly scalping for now until we see which way the wind blows.
Have you noticed a lot of penny and junk stocks running lately?
My PIXR short from yesterday acting very well, covered dell early on weakness, gonna wait to see what EOD brings then may re-enter.
And a beautiful headfake rally it was, probably one more coming before the close... still in DELL short and added PIXR at 50.74
Actually, I don't have a problem with his "accent", I understand it perfectly... What I have a problem with is he's been consistantly CLOWN bullish throughout the ENTIRE bear market. So I'm not surprised that he was forever bullish during all of the 1990's, bull markets make everyone look like a genious... I just wonder if those that continued following him after the bubble burst have any money left.
Oct 25, 2001 9:21 PM
"a monster bull market is under way....first stop dow 16660....thats the upper trendline of the dows large expanding triangle...once thru that the epicenter of primary wave three up will see the dow soar to beyond 20 k"
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=17826820
snort snort, lmazzoff
re: "nice look to the market this morning"
Large QQQ Print
8/21/02 10:09 AM EDT
The pop in the futures at the opening this morning can largely be attributed to a Lehman customer buying over 45,000 Sep 25 calls in the QQQ on the PHLX. Open interest in the contract lies at over 113,000 contracts, so it is difficult to tell if this customer was closing down a short call or putting on a highly speculative position. In any event, this is a monster size order, even in the highly liquid QQQ.
Hanging on to my DELL short for now... PIXR looks very interesting as a short... I see CHPC got upgraded by MER
"...Let the Saudi's scream. In my opinion, folks are foolish that think the Saudi's are our friends for any other reason than to get our money for their oil..."-- mlsoft
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And of course, the Saudi's or any other major oil producing Arab or Muslim country would be foolish to think that "We" are "their" friends for any other reason to get ' their oil for our money.'
...Rah Rah Rah! for our side!
I hadn't really been watching it either, it's just one of many I keep on one screen because I've traded it in the past. It caught my attention because it was down 18% earlier on big volume, on no "apparent" news.
I expected a mid-day bounce here also, covered my DELL short from yesterday too soon expecting to be able re-enter higher
There it went, out of CHPC at 2.69... nice quick scalp
16000?... I thought it was 40,000 to da moon, snort snort
Well, I jumped in at $2.45... Just looking for a scalp to maybe $2.69
thx
mlsoft... your old friend CHPC getting mauled today, anything specific going on there? worth a bounce?
Probably just due to the fact you put in a "market" order... so then you are at the mercy of what they say the market was offering.
mlsoft... re: PPT, I'm certainly aware of the powers of the PPT, but there are definitely more "powers" around other than them... And once the buying momentum starts and gets some legs going then the fact is: rising prices causes more buying. There's also many market-timer newsletter writers who have all gone on buy signals, and I'm referring to the top ten market timers.
perhaps a quote is due here...
"When you have got an elephant by the hind legs and he is trying to run away, it's best to let him run." -- Abraham Lincoln
That said, I have shorted DELL and TYC here, counting on Naz 1400 and SPX 950 to mark a local top.
Not looking for a moonshot, just a short-term trade
I'm still looking for a major bottom in the Fall
Well, that was close enough for me. I've gone long some QQQ at 22.8 and a few small traders... I don't think "they" can let a total melt-down happen here. To heck with valuations, we don't need a total financial melt-down, that won't be good for ANYONE.
Still mucho dry powder tho
You gotta be kidding... "Don't fight the Fed??" After 11 rate cuts you think one more is gonna make a dif?
Same-O Same-O... They prop em up in the AM then the weight of reality takes em down hard. How long will they hold em up today before the weight of reality pushes em back down?... SPX looks like it wants to keep leading em down.
VLSI Research lowers IC and tool forecasts for 2002
Semiconductor Business News
(07/21/02 11:24 a.m. EST)
SAN JOSE -- Casting a dark cloud on this week's Semicon West trade show in San Francisco, VLSI Research Inc. here issued a double-whammy for the industry: it has lowered its forecast for both the semiconductor and chip-equipment markets.
One of the more upbeat forecasters in the IC industry, VLSI Research also believes that a second-half recovery "is looking worse all the time for chip makers". Compounding the problem is what the firm calls the "American Financial Crisis", which is hurting consumer confidence in the marketplace.
Some were even more blunt about the current state of the industry. "We have a worldwide problem", said Arthur Zafiropoulo, chairman and CEO of Ultratech Stepper Inc. in San Jose. "Consumer confidence is weak, but we will see a gradual recovery. However, we won't see a sharp recovery until the end of next year", he said during a press event at Semicon West in San Jose last week.
Meanwhile, the current dynamics has prompted VLSI Research to alter its forecasts. The research firm originally projected that the semiconductor industry would grow 20.6% in 2002 over 2001 (see Jan. 7 story ). Now, the San Jose-based research firm has cut its forecast, saying the market will still grow by 12.6% in 2002 over 2001.
In total, the IC market is expected to grow from $118.5 billion in 2001, to $133.4 billion in 2002, according to VLSI Research. In 2001, the worldwide IC market fell 33% over 2000, the company said.
VLSI Research is not as optimistic about the capital equipment markets, however. Originally, VLSI Research said the worldwide IC-equipment market would hit $34.56 billion in 2002, down 12% over 2001. In June, the firm raised its forecast, saying it will reach $36.89 this year, down about 6% over 2001 (see June 6 story ).
Now, VLSI Research has gone back to its original forecast, saying the market will drop by 12.2% to $34.5 billion in 2002. In 2001, the worldwide semiconductor equipment market hit $39.3 billion, down a staggering 34.7% from 2000, they said.
"Chip prices are beating Moore's Law, [but] they are not beating it hard enough", according to VLSI Research. "Thus, the possibility of a price-led upturn in the second half is looking worse all the time for chip makers".
VLSI Research did not lower its fab-capacity utilization forecast for 2002, but noted that funds for capital expenditures are getting released in a slow trickle, analyst G. Dan Hutcheson of the research firm. "This can't be good for equipment in the second half, hence the lowered forecast", Hutcheson said.
He also noted that profitability remains a problem for chip makers. In addition, the "American Financial Crisis" is also hampering the ability of chip makers to spend.
"I am really swimming upstream when it comes to my optimism, but all the pressure points forcing an upturn are there. It's just a matter of time before they break and a huge upturn ensues", Hutcheson said.
Other research firms agree. In 2002, worldwide wafer fab equipment spending will be $18.9 billion, a 20% decline from 2001 revenue of $23.7 billion, according to Dataquest Inc. But San Jose-based Dataquest is also looking for the market to rebound in 2003(see July 11 story ).
At the Semicon West show in San Jose last week, a trade group projected similar numbers. In 2003 a near-30% annual increase in total semiconductor equipment sales will follow-on from 19% year-on-year drop in 2002 sales according to the mid-year consensus forecast from Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) (see Jan. 3, 2001 story ).
"We think the semiconductor industry is positioned for a recovery", said Stanley Myers, president and chief executive officer of SEMI, at a press event during Semicon West last week, which featured the IC-test and assembly portion of the business. This week, Semicon West heads to San Francisco for the "front-end" part of the business.
Others were also somewhat optimistic at the press event. "We believe the [recovery] has already started", said Alexander Oscilowski, president of Kulicke & Soffa Industries Inc. of Willow Grove, Penn. "But we don't believe there will be a need for capacity buys until 2003", he said.
http://www.siliconstrategies.com/story/OEG20020721S0001
Are those real-time?... this one is I believe http://64.227.236.52/public/vxnwatch.html
Last I checked VXN actually negative and VIX marginally positive, not registering the selloff... Not a good sign for those looking for a bottom here
Joke of the day, Lol!... 11:52 ET Fed rate cut rumors : Rumors that the Fed might cut rates are giving the market a lift off the lows; rumors apparently emanated from S&P futures pits. These rumors should be taken with a huge grain of salt - stock investors often like to think that Fed policy is conducted for the benefit of the stock market, but in fact the Fed focuses on the economy, and with the economy performing reasonably well right now, a rate cut is unlikely.
Don't fight the Fed! lol!
SPX already sliced through last week's low of 934ish, 923 next support
Ho-Hum, Just another major telecom scandal- "Qwest notified of criminal investigation (Q) 2.60 halted: -- Update -- Was informed by the U. S. Attorney's office in Denver yesterday afternoon that it had begun a criminal investigation of Qwest. The U.S. Attorney's office did not disclose the subject matter of the investigation.
re: NOVN... It is down on the same news as Wyeth, really not too hard to find-
Wyeth- "...government researchers halted a study of the drugmaker's Prempro hormone replacement treatment on concern it may raise patients' risk of breast cancer and heart disease."
"Shares of other makers of hormone therapies, including Noven Pharmaceuticals Inc. and Novavax Inc., also fell..."
"Shares of Noven, which makes patches that deliver hormones through the skin, fell $5.60, or 27 percent, to $14.99. Noven is the only company that makes a patch, called CombiPatch, that combines estrogen and progestin..."
Wow Larry! HAL is really on top of it... HAL "indicates" that EMLX acts differently since it's now in a totally different environment under the NYSE system of one "specialist" who has a "monopoly type" control???
Wow! How did HAL figure that out?