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LOL,
My theory is that bottom fishers are hoping it will go lower, and some are even trying to help it go lower by posting unfounded negatives. When news hits the price will soar as it has in the past,because of two things. The intrinsic value the news implies, and bottom fishers who miscalculated again running to catch the move, hitting the ask and pushing the stock price up. All the while claiming they have free shares and are making big money.
I know I am right.
Welcome aboard.
db
Always enough time to change, have you yet?
db
Please reread post # 234975.
Well,
If you believe as you have said that the EEZ is potentially more valuable than the JDZ, and you believe management is incompetent, how can you say:
"I'm not sure we will ever get an EEZ partner. From what I hear management's poor reputation is making that difficult if not impossible."
It seems to me that if a "competent" major is interested in the EEZ, as seems likely by your assessment, and by closology to deep water producing fields directly to the east, why would they not use our management's ineptitude to make a better deal?
Used car dealers use this approach almost exclusively.
I'd say we are in pretty good shape. We might not get the best deal under your criteria, but we will get a deal.
A small lol.
db
A few? Maybe "a few" on your private by permission only discussion board. I am seeing more than that on the public boards.
No matter though, disaffected posters routinely blame management. I think their failure to respond to your letter with something substantive made you a disaffected poster. You blame management, when the obvious problem is that the well results were less than expected.
Extensions, well results, SNP's deeply rooted need to hold back info are all factors out of management's control. I am not particularly pleased with our management, but the stock price is the result of real events out of their control. When events change, an EEZ partner, PSC's signed, drilling announced, phase two announcement etc. we will go up.
db
Smart investors will look at the market cap and the possibilities. Right now our cap is about 135 million.
For that you get 100% of two very large EEZ blocks, 15% of two other EEZ blocks, the chance that our huge position in the JDZ gets developed.
135 million is peanuts. I guarantee you any deep water E&P with cash would love to own this company at that price. The problem is it can't be bought for that price. OFFER wont sell, and any effort at significant open market accumulation would result in sky rocket prices.
You understand that, or you would not be here. We may go lower but we are significantly under priced right now.
db
LOL, Clearly YOU and I like HDY management. Just as clearly investor sentiment on the HDY boards is changing. The LOI fell through and now the sainted team at HDY is being accused of everything except pedophilia. Not sure about that last, as I have not read all the HDY boards. The exception to this opinion belongs to the cool aid drinkers, like you and I. We both think HDY is a great company. Though that won't prevent the stock sliding further without news.
The point is that both companies have investors trashing management because things didn't go the way they expected them to. I see no evidence that your redundant suggestions about management would in any way change the course of this investment. You turn every conversation into a diatribe on ERHE management. I really don't see much difference between what you are doing and what disaffected HDY posters are doing.
But I do like you,
db
Though the lack of carried interest may be a factor, I think proceeding with block one first has more to do with proximity to Akpo and Egina than anything else.
And I think the rest of the blocks will follow. My major question is when, not if. If they get clear through assessment of block one before they continue exploration and assessment of two, three and four it could take a long time for us to get "monetized".
Best course for us is a buyout or a unified development plan. Hopefully not just wishful thinking.
db
Does any of this sound familiar?
Here are a few recent posts from the HDY board:
"The euphoria has now become fear imho."
"Its all a friggin rigged game anyway.. eff em all!"
"If the news blackout continues till the SHM,the price will go back down below 3 imho...Too much fear is in the air and remember that when folks see hundreds of thousands in profits vanish,they panic and sell.If you have 300-400,000 shares here under 0.75 like some of the old timers do,and have seen the drop from 7.78 to 3.75 recently,sooner or later the fear will shake you out imho..Any accumulator knows this and is in no hurry to support the stock at 4,when he can scoop it up at 2.50 lol....... "
"I agree my brother batspeed ... looks like the Emperor needs a new LOI ... CONFIDENTIALLY ... of cousre. We don't want the commoners to prosper ... not before our friends !!! "
______________________________
Great company, incredible prospects, but one deal falls through and the recently sainted management is losing halos left and right, bashers are back in force, and the chart looks like at least a retest of three bucks. People have pointing out that Blackrock has had plenty of opportunities to short the stock. There are accusations of insider trading, conspiracies etc.
AND after just a few days, strong complaints of lack of news. Only a news release will save them. Ain't the stock market grand!
For those of you not invested in HDY, reading the HDY boards with out the emotional involvement of a major investment may provide the best investment education available on the internet.
Just sayin,
db
deleted for stupidity.
Now we see if 3.70 holds. Erhe is following your prediction.
db
Krom, from the report:
"Tullow’s African interests are in" ... "Equatorial Guinea, Gabon," ...
Those are directly adjacent to our EEZ blocks. Like Total and the JDZ, some of the same principles apply. I would not expect Tullow to announce an ERHE partnership until things are finalized. Would be interesting to know where they are offshore in those countries. IE exactly how far from our EEZ block margins.
Hoping our friendly STP oil minister is correct about this. If so we will be in very good shape with an official announcement.
db
I guarantee if he comments at all he will say it is too risky and tell you to buy CVX or BP, lol.
db
You seem to be able to say anything to support your position. We are half way there already. The question for me is whether or not we fall to major support at 3.
db
I'll buy some if it retests yesterday's lows.
db
Appraisal Well:
A well drilled as part of an appraisal drilling program which is carried out to determine the physical extent, reserves and likely production rate of a field.
Go Total.
We have realized for a while now that Block one is probably headed for production. Nice to see Total going moving ahead.
Now for the "official" announcement.
db
Now that is funeee!
db
As I've said a number of times, I like HDY management. And though the stock is down $1.30 in one day and three something in the last week or so, I expected it to drop further. The failure of the LOI was certainly a set back, and it will be difficult for HDY to meet their drilling schedule. The negotiation was exclusive, so it seems unlikely they have another partner waiting in the wings. Like when we found Addax and SNP within days of losing US majors. LOL.
We agree about HDY management, they have overcome many obstacles up to now and their investors, including me, have faith in them. It will be interesting to see if Ray has a rabbit.
db
Silly,
No one thinks SEO is the least bit altruistic. He does though, own almost half the stock in the company, which is a US listed and publicly traded corporation, with all the minority stock holder protections the SEC and the state of Colorado provides. As you have certainly noticed the SEC has an eye on this company. The only way he can make money is if we make money. Everybody here understands that, as do you.
db
Absolutely agree about the strength. I will get back in one way or another. Nearer three will be a gift if it happens.
db
Well, nice chart. Bounced just above your weak support. Now we will see if this is a DCB and it goes to 3. Since I want a lower entry it will probably hold, lol.
db
My guess is they will go up. And I think that is why Ray is asking for an update. To counter act the apparent negotiating weakness from the loss of the LOI.
db
Thanks, that is what I guessed eyeballing the chart. Lots of support at 3. Though this stock has always traded stronger than I had thought it would. Sold a bunch at 5 and watched it run away from me, lol. I think there are a bunch of people looking for an entry point like me, but I probably won't bite till the low 3's.
Long term I think this is a no brainer.
db
I don't see a lot of support until three bucks. Great company but where does the correction end? Your position dictates your responses. Where is the TA to support a long position right now for a trader? Bottom fishing, yes, absolutely. I think it is going lower.
db
Not very hard to tell your position by the way you post. What does your TA tell you today?
db
The LOI was exclusive. Makes it harder for me to think they have someone waiting in the wings.
db
This is a real test. If they handle this well I will be truly impressed.
db
Did not see that. Wow. I was guessing the low threes, unless they have an unused card up their sleeve. Still a great company, but they have lost a lot of their negotiating power, not to mention momentum. Will be interesting to see if they can find a way to meet their drilling schedule.
db
Obviously tough for longs, but you are right in thinking Ray's sainthood is about to get tested. Thirty percent lower than yesterday's close in the premarket. The opening today will be bedlam.
In edit: Still dropping.
db
HDY getting hammered in the pre market over joint venture bobble.
db
"I assume they drilled a 3rd hole in Block 4 because they found nothing in the first 2."
Now there is a convincing argument. Let's see, that would make wells 51 through 60 at Akpo drilled because the first fifty didn't find anything.
My my. Just common sense.
db
Patient:
Doctor, do you realize you have a suppository behind your ear?
Doctor:
Yes, and I am missing my pen and I'm not sure I want it back.
They need about a hundred million to drill the first three wells. They are in talks with a major oil company to sell part of the concession to raise the capital for their share of the drilling costs. They have not, and say they will not give up operator-ship. They are taking a big gamble that one of the first three wells will be successful. NSAI numbers from the 3D looked very good, and only cover part of the concession. If they are successful they go to the moon, but as we well know deep water exploration wells are iffy. Three dry holes and they tank. Big risk, potential extreme pay off. Lots of cool aid drinkers, me included.
db
Awe Midtier,
"We have a group of incompetent managers"
Even an alzheimer's patient would consider that repetitive. Wading through your posts used to be like panning for gold. Occasional reinforcement by finding a nugget.
It's been just too long since you've said anything useful. Why is it we always manage to find someone to fill the Strass function? Some kind of message board law?
Life's little bumps.
db
Yup, me too.
Even the anthropologist Toby Shute in his negative piece on Enercom evaluations at Motley Fool says we should be trading at two bucks. With him as the bottom and Enercom as the top we have a nice trading range of 2+++.
You have to like a negative opinion that says you are trading at fair value, lol:
"While my back-of-the-napkin estimate suggested $1.60 per share back when the shares were at $1.30, oil prices have run higher, and I also may not have given the firm enough credit for the overriding royalty interest it retains on the acreage sold to Chesapeake. Fair value could be closer to $2 per share"
In Edit, It is interesting that Toby gives a negative opinion about his previous opinion in that sentence....
db
Very unlikely IMO, given the logistics involved.
db
I am bullish on HDY, but it lost about a third in November. If it repeats, that would put this correction at about five bucks. If it gets that far I will be providing support.
db
Though I like Mr. Sears' optimism, my guess is the discoveries of new technology will be driven by need, perhaps dire need.
Great articles.
db
highcotton,
I don't know what all the fuss is about. I for one am perfectly comfortable with you exercising your strategy every chance you get.
Go for it.
db
Oh well,
Not a bad day though. We keep bumping up against the high end of our .20 to .24 trading range. Hoping for a break to close above .24 in the next few days. Then .27. The chart looks great.
db