Let's all climb mountains in 2016 -- no matter how much higher they get and how much shorter you get!
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Tony,
You're not alone. My broker dumped everything his firm couldn't sell on me because he knew I was too dumb to know the difference. The bear market wiped out 16 years of investing for me, and I've had to learn to trade in self-defense!
Since I fired the broker and took control, I've made money. Made a lot of mistakes in the beginning which cost me, but I figure that is the cost of learning. Still learning, and loving it. Of course, there are days and then there are days.
I figure if anyone is going to lose MY money, it's going to be me! Don't give up. Keep learning, keep refining your trading skills. Take heart, if I can make money in this !@#$%^& market, anyone can!
Newly
This IS working for a living! Twelve hours/day at least, and no guaranteed minimum wage!
Newly
Greenspan is constantly being criticized on these threads, and while I'm not necessarily a fan of his, in his defense, one does not get to a position of economic power such as he holds by being stupid. This man has to evaluate the repercussions of each of his tiniest actions in areas that no doubt have never even occurred to many of his narrow-sighted critics, while at the same time anticipating the possible reactions of other powerful economic forces.
Cut the man some slack. His job is not an easy one, and he doesn't even get paid that well to do it! And don't blame him for exposing us to the temptation of easy money, either -- WE made the choice to take it, and no one was twisting our arm! WE have no one to blame but our greedy selves for the stockmarket bubble, housing bubble, bond bubble, credit mess we're in today.
Newly
Disclaimer: I use the term WE loosely -- I carry no debt but a low-balance home mortgage!
Times have changed! The children of the Depression era paid cash for everything for the rest of their lives, and admonished their children to never, NEVER buy stocks!
Their children, the WWII generation, also knew hard times (fathers and uncles off to war, some never to return, rationing, blackouts, making do with what one had, fear and insecurity), and like their parents, they learned to pay cash for things, and never, NEVER to invest in the stockmarket.
But the children of the children of the Depression grew up in affluent times. They loved the stockmarket and created its bubble. They have not yet experienced the economic hardships that seem to descend at least once upon every generation. They have never learned to budget, nor (yet) have they had to. They spend whatever they earn and more.
When I started in real estate in Southern California back in '85, people came to me with their nesteggs to buy a starter home that "would do" until they could afford better (and took on mortgages at 12-13%).
Today, couples in their 30's, making combined incomes of over $150K, come to me to buy their dream homes (nothing but the best for this generation), but don't have a penney saved to use as a downpayment. They get 80% loan-to-value mortgages, and a second mortgage to pay the other 20%. They have no cash in these properties, so when times get tough, or they lose their high-paying jobs, they just walk away, like owners did in the real estate crash of the early '90's (when buyers had to put a minimum of 10% down except for VA and FHA loans), which resulted in so many S&L's going under.
This attitude of financial irresponsibility is pervasive in our society today, as reflected in the state of the overall economy. But the reality is that there are consequences. The piper has to be paid eventually.
Unfortunately (or perhaps fortunately?), like every generation before them, the current generation of young adults may be about to get a serious lesson in reality!
Newly
OT, when I was a kid there, Bernardsville was just a small town on the Erie-Lackawana RR, surrounded by fields and woodlands. The Great Swamp down around Meyersville was, I think, made into a bird sanctuary back in the sixties.
The Passaic River was too filthy and debrise-strewn to swim in when I was a kid -- they must have cleaned it up since if birds can forage there without getting poisoned. We'd go up to the Black River for swimming. The water there was clean and clear.
Newly
Bob, I'll be happy to take your survey. I appreciate your efforts in keeping this site a good place to visit, and, of course, you need to make money to keep it going.
Please just email it to me at the address I provided with registration.
Newly
Agreed. There is more downside coming, but I don't see the bottom of the well in the immediate future.
While sticking with the rule of not trading against the major trend certainly lowers risk when applied to position trades and LTBH, I think for short-term trading, trade with the short-term trend -- just don't take any long coffee breaks . . . and don't even think about sleeping with the enemy!
Newly
Nope, you're not alone! Like you, trading only the long side. Must be doing something right as I'm making money! Pamplona here we come . . .
Newly
I trade gold/silver stocks, but have been in and out of the metal itself (bullion and numismatics) since the '70's (have a trusty long-term friend with a nearby gold shop!).
I've also noticed the lack of correlation between movement in the metal prices and movement in the pm stock prices -- sometimes they seem to trade with the overall market trends instead of the dollar/POG movements (perhaps because so many small traders/investors are buying pm stocks now?). At other times they move inversely to the overall market trend. They certainly march to their own drummer, and TA is difficult to apply well to them.
Agree there is manipulation there, no doubt relative to JPM et al derivitive positions, currency problems, PPT, etc, which distorts/negates the TA. Gold is a small market, easily manipulated. I just watch the individual gold stocks trading ranges, volume, news, etc., and, while I've made money in the South Africans in the past, I don't "sleep" with them anymore.
Newly
"They always say the one who profits in recession/depression is the one who has cold hard cash!"
--------------------------------------------------------------
Some gold and silver coins, diamonds, platinum, etc., wouldn't hurt either (in the event a worst-case scenario unfolds, God forbid)!
Newly
"My guess would be that most everyone who had an inclination to do so has already taken advantage of the low rates - I cannot imagine what they would be waiting for at this point."
____________________
No doubt there are some (like me) who are waiting for even lower rates.
Housing appears to be topping out here in Southern California. Might be a good time to sell, and wait for the drop in prices (that's sure to come if the economy continues down the current path) before repurchasing. Many people scored bigtime buying at the bottom here in the early '90's and selling for 35-50% profit a mere two to three years later, or 100%+ if they waited until this past year.
They always say the one who profits in recession/depression is the one who has cold hard cash!
Newly
Help, anyone. Trying to get indexes set up on IB and none of the usual symbols seem to work for getting the Nasdaq. Anyone have a suggestion as to what symbol to use? TIA
Newly
Can't buy on margin in the IRA's, but with over $25K balance one can daytrade BUT there is a 3-day settlement thing which I get around by keeping 50% cash, and use this "reserve" cash to make more trades while waiting for settlement funds to become available again (after 3 days).
If one's account is under $25K, IB now cuts off all your buying power (not just margin buying) regardless of cash balance in the account on your third "buy" if you have already made two roundtrips within the past 5 days, but you can still sell -- over 3 roundtrips in 5 days = pattern daytrader, not allowed, and the brokerages have to enforce the rule! Costs both them AND ME money!
Newly
Some tough questions I'd like to see answered (from "The Daily Reckoning"):
35 QUESTIONS THAT WILL NEVER BE ASKED ABOUT IRAQ
- From A Post On The DR Discussion Board This Week,
Attributed To Texas Congressman Ron Paul's Office
"...Soon we hope to have hearings on the pending war
with Iraq. I am concerned there are some questions that
won't be asked- and maybe will not even be allowed to be
asked. Here are some questions I would like answered by
those who are urging us to start this war.
1. Is it not true that the reason we did not bomb the
Soviet Union at the height of the Cold War was because
we knew they could retaliate?
2. Is it not also true that we are willing to bomb Iraq
now because we know it cannot retaliate- which just
confirms that there is no real threat?
3. Is it not true that those who argue that even with
inspections we cannot be sure that Hussein might be
hiding weapons, at the same time imply that we can be
more sure that weapons exist in the absence of
inspections?
4. Is it not true that the UN's International Atomic
Energy Agency was able to complete its yearly
verification mission to Iraq just this year with Iraqi
cooperation?
5. Is it not true that the intelligence community has
been unable to develop a case tying Iraq to global
terrorism at all, much less the attacks on the United
States last year? Does anyone remember that 15 of the 19
hijackers came from Saudi Arabia and that none came from
Iraq?
6. Was former CIA counter-terrorism chief Vincent
Cannistraro wrong when he recently said there is no
confirmed evidence of Iraq,s links to terrorism?
7. Is it not true that the CIA has concluded there is no
evidence that a Prague meeting between 9/11 hijacker
Atta and Iraqi intelligence took place?
8. Is it not true that northern Iraq, where the
administration claimed al-Qaeda were hiding out, is in
the control of our "allies," the Kurds?
9. Is it not true that the vast majority of al-Qaeda
leaders who escaped appear to have safely made their way
to Pakistan, another of our so-called allies?
10. Has anyone noticed that Afghanistan is rapidly
sinking into total chaos, with bombings and
assassinations becoming daily occurrences; and that
according to a recent UN report the al-Qaeda "is, by all
accounts, alive and well and poised to strike again,
how, when, and where it chooses"
11. Why are we taking precious military and intelligence
resources away from tracking down those who did attack
the United States- and who may again attack the United
States- and using them to invade countries that have not
attacked the United States?
12. Would an attack on Iraq not just confirm the Arab
world's worst suspicions about the US- and isn't this
what bin Laden wanted?
13. How can Hussein be compared to Hitler when he has no
navy or air force, and now has an army 1/5 the size of
twelve years ago, which even then proved totally inept
at defending the country?
14. Is it not true that the constitutional power to
declare war is exclusively that of the Congress? Should
presidents, contrary to the Constitution, allow Congress
to concur only when pressured by public opinion? Are
presidents permitted to rely on the UN for permission to
go to war?
15. Are you aware of a Pentagon report studying charges
that thousands of Kurds in one village were gassed by
the Iraqis, which found no conclusive evidence that Iraq
was responsible, that Iran occupied the very city
involved, and that evidence indicated the type of gas
used was more likely controlled by Iran not Iraq?
16. Is it not true that anywhere between 100,000 and
300,000 US soldiers have suffered from Persian Gulf War
syndrome from the first Gulf War, and that thousands may
have died?
17. Are we prepared for possibly thousands of American
casualties in a war against a country that does not have
the capacity to attack the United States?
18. Are we willing to bear the economic burden of a 100
billion dollar war against Iraq, with oil prices
expected to skyrocket and further rattle an already
shaky American economy? How about an estimated 30 years
occupation of Iraq that some have deemed necessary to
"build democracy" there?
19. Iraq's alleged violations of UN resolutions are
given as reason to initiate an attack, yet is it not
true that hundreds of UN Resolutions have been ignored
by various countries without penalty?
20. Did former President Bush not cite the UN Resolution
of 1990 as the reason he could not march into Baghdad,
while supporters of a new attack assert that it is the
very reason we can march into Baghdad?
21. Is it not true that, contrary to current claims, the
no-fly zones were set up by Britain and the United
States without specific approval from the United
Nations?
22. If we claim membership in the international
community and conform to its rules only when it pleases
us, does this not serve to undermine our position,
directing animosity toward us by both friend and foe?
23. How can our declared goal of bringing democracy to
Iraq be believable when we prop up dictators throughout
the Middle East and support military tyrants like
Musharaf in Pakistan, who overthrew a democratically-
elected president?
24. Are you familiar with the 1994 Senate Hearings that
revealed the U.S. knowingly supplied chemical and
biological materials to Iraq during the Iran-Iraq war
and as late as 1992- including after the alleged Iraqi
gas attack on a Kurdish village?
25. Did we not assist Saddam Hussein,s rise to power by
supporting and encouraging his invasion of Iran? Is it
honest to criticize Saddam now for his invasion of Iran,
which at the time we actively supported?
26. Is it not true that preventive war is synonymous
with an act of aggression, and has never been considered
a moral or legitimate US policy?
27. Why do the oil company executives strongly support
this war if oil is not the real reason we plan to take
over Iraq?
28. Why is it that those who never wore a uniform and
are confident that they won't have to personally fight
this war are more anxious for this war than our
generals?
29. What is the moral argument for attacking a nation
that has not initiated aggression against us, and could
not if it wanted?
30. Where does the Constitution grant us permission to
wage war for any reason other than self-defense?
31. Is it not true that a war against Iraq rejects the
sentiments of the time-honored Treaty of Westphalia,
nearly 400 years ago, that countries should never go
into another for the purpose of regime change?
32. Is it not true that the more civilized a society is,
the less likely disagreements will be settled by war?
33. Is it not true that since World War II Congress has
not declared war and- not coincidentally- we have not
since then had a clear-cut victory?
34. Is it not true that Pakistan, especially through its
intelligence services, was an active supporter and key
organizer of the Taliban?
35. Why don't those who want war bring a formal
declaration of war resolution to the floor of
Congress?..."
Newly
OT
IDM by any chance? That was our big commercial real estate company to go under here in southern California in the early '90's, too big to fail everyone thought.
For the past year or two I've been watching single family homes being sold to speculators who did nothing to improve them and then flipped them 3 months later for $50K or more gain, but that is now coming to a screeching halt. I think the real estate game is over for the time being, at least in my market area.
With the stock market gone, and the real estate market going, where will folks be putting their cash? Or do they have any left to put anywhere???
Newly
He who forgets the past is doomed to repeat it! Reminds me of all the traders who expected to get rich in the late '90's because the market would, of course, only go up, which was a very, very large and dangerous assumption.
While I admire their ambition, I can't help wondering where that couple will actually end up ten years down the road. Many of the Realtors I know who tried to play that game back in the mid to late '80's not only lost everything, but have still not financially recovered.
Remember, when you default and are foreclosed upon with a purchase-money loan it dings your credit, but the debt goes away. Once you refinance, however, foreclosure does not wipe out the obligation and you are liable for a deficit judgment equal to the amount of any loss the lender sustains after the subsequent sale of the property.
That couple better pray housing prices do not begin to deflate, which could throw a rather large monkeywrench into their little get-rich-quick scheme.
Let's face it, there is no easy way to get rich -- it takes a lot of hard work!
Newly
OT
Doesn't surprise me! It's all in the social implications of our different basic biological natures -- women define themselves less by their sexual prowess than do men, AIMHO, of course.
Newly2b
Believe it refers to Storage Area Networks, but think Softie uses it to refer to the storage sector in toto.
Newly2b
OT
PaulA,
Since you adopted an adult cat you don't know what she may have been through before you got her. Maybe lived with kids who made sudden, and painful, grabs at her so she is just reacting to a previous painful experience. Of course, cats have a mind of their own, and I once had a Siamese that reacted like that when she wasn't in the mood to be bothered, but was otherwise very affectionate (when she wanted to be).
You're probably perfectly safe as long as you don't make sudden lunges in her direction that frighten her. Good luck!
Newly2b
LG, I disagree -- YOU ARE an asset to this board. We need the "wisdom of the ages" here that you have gleaned from so many years studying the markets. In my opinion, this thread is in essence a "teaching" thread, though I realize many come just to "ride the coattails". You take the time to explain your opinions, methods of operation and insights in detail, and I (and certainly I am not alone here) value your contributions.
Please continue to post. TIA.
Newly
Move to a cheaper broker! Interactive Brokers charges $.01 per share traded, which makes taking many small profits off daytrades still lucrative.
Newly
Interactive Brokers doesn't charge any SEC fees at all on stock trades. Other brokerages (Muriel Siebert, Waterhouse, Brown & Co.) seem to charge only on sell-side, approximately one cent per $300 of total dollar sale amount.
Newly
All cash accounts (IRAs, etc.) must conform to this rule, making it a bit more difficult to daytrade in them. To work around it, keep a cash balance. I keep 50% cash in my IRAs and can daytrade up to the amount of cash. Must wait about 3 days for settlement funds to clear, but trading every day, it cycles nicely and I've not had a problem daytrading in these accounts, though I can only use half the funds at any one time.
Newly
Check out Interactive Brokers. Never had a problem with them in two years trading there. $.01/shr, cheap options, too. Fast, good fills, and can set trailing stops. Good trader workstation. Also get good service/fills at Muriel Siebert, but it's $14.95 up to either 1000 or 5000 shrs (can't remember which). Don't care much for the setup at Brown&Co., $10/100 shrs, but don't trade that account much. For day-trading, by far I.B. is my preferred account. Only use Siebert or Brown for swing or position trades.
Newly
American version of James Joyce's "Finnegan's Wake" perhaps?
Newly
All IRA's are cash-only accounts (no margin buying, no shorting), and it is my understanding that shares held in IRAs therefore are not available for shorting by others.
Personally, I am not comfortable with shorting, and in questioning myself as to why I eschew this sometimes quick route to profits, I conclude that somehow it feels "unAmerican" to me, like kicking a guy when he is down. We Americans seem to have an inbred desire to see underdogs succeed at beating the odds, perhaps because one of the foundations of our country is that here everyone has an equal opportunity, and every nobody can dream of becoming somebody one day.
And no, I didn't short 9/11 -- when the markets reopened, I bought (and am still holding that bag)!
Newly
Brightness, you say "As for the issue of Social Security, once again, people who derive their income solely from stock trading are not even covered under Social Security benefits (under current tax code, capital gain is not "earned income" regardless how much work is done in analysing stocks) why should they be forced to pay into a self-help system that doesn't help them at all?"
One is NOT forced to pay into social security when one is not covered by it! One may elect to designate oneself a "Professional" trader and pay into the system (social security) and is then covered by it. As a non-professional one does not pay in and is not covered. Being self-employed, I can tell you, many tax years I pay more to social security than I do in income taxes. Just hope I live long enough to collect some of it back, and that there's still some money left in the system by then!
Newly
It works both ways. "Professional" traders pay into the system (social security) and are covered by it, non-professionals do not pay in and are not covered. Being self-employed, I can tell you, many tax years I pay more to social security than I do in income taxes. Just hope I live long enough to collect some of it back, and that there's still some money left in the system by then!
Newly
Public Heel, you say "Taxes should be "targeted" in one very important way: the rich should have to pay a higher percentage of income than the poor. The most important secondary accomplishment of taxes should be a REdistribution of wealth downward."
I fail to see how decreasing the wealth of the creators of wealth and redistributing it to the consumers of wealth is economically beneficial. The communists already tried that -- it didn't work. Besides, right here at home the consumers have been consuming throughout this downturn and it hasn't prevented our deteriorating fundamentals!
I don't think creating false wealth for the poorer classes solves anything. "Give a man a fish, you feed him for a day; teach a man to fish, you feed him for a lifetime." The way to wealth is to work for it, save what you earn, and reinvest it wisely. If one works for it, then gives it back in taxes, one has nothing left to reinvest in new business, creating new jobs, creating more opportunities for the poor to earn their living and take their own shot at wealth-building. JMO.
Newly
Syl, It is one big game of cops-and-robbers! We make the money, and they try to figure out how to get it away from us! It ain't the system, it's human nature at work. No question, affluence corrupts! Add to that the socialistic (and altruistic?) shifting of wealth from the producers of that wealth (who use it to create more wealth) to the consumers of that wealth (who simply use it), and there goes the future.
Capitalism may not be fair and just to all, but it's the best thing going right now.
Newly
P.S. Not political, Zeev, economic philosophy! ggg
Missed that. Was it by any chance Wrabetz from Tricord???
Newly
Same here! Tnx.
Newly
Yes, IHub slow here, too last 15 mins. Maybe all those S.I. posters scooting over here. . .
Newly
No SI here in L.A. still.
Zeev, holding that AMGN overnight????
Newly
SI homepage link and all thread links no go here in L.A.
Newly
More thoughts on the national housing outlook and its impact on housing stocks from SI's Guidance II thread:
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=17702940
I'll try to answer your questions as best I can, all IMHO, of course.
In real estate terms: Nationally, mortgage interest rates were outrageously high '81 to '84, excluding many buyers from the market. By '85, interest rates came down to about 11-13%, which was relatively attractive, and brought buyers who were unable to qualify for a mortgage the past 4 or 5 years back into the market (pent up demand). As interest rates continued to fall, more and more people were able to qualify for a home loan. Competition among buyers caused housing prices to rise, again raising monthly mortgage payments resulting in the exclusion of buyers who couldn't qualify for home loans, causing over supply of housing (peaking in '89) and subsequent bursting bubble. Cycle repeats: home prices fall, interest rates fall, buyers enter again, home prices go ballistic, buyers stop buying, repeat ad infinitum. Supply/demand basics.
larger picture: Tech was screaming ahead here in California, jobs were plentiful, demographics were shifting with increasing population influx, the economy was booming, money everywhere, low, low, low interest rates. Then in '89 our largest local employer, McDonnell Douglass Corp began layoffs. People worried about their jobs don't buy homes. The bust part of the cycle began.
Of course real estate is local in nature, but mortgage interest rates are relatively uniform across the nation and the national economy is a big factor in all housing. Note that the Texas housing boom crashed before ours did, and when the tech wreck occurred housing in Northern California was hardest hit. It's local, and it is cyclical, and it is national. Florida, NYC, wherever, no one is immune to these housing and economic cycles.
The housing market is not so different to the stockmarket. Cycles repeat. Timing is everything. Nothing is a guaranteed "win" all of the time! Which cup is the ball under today? Care to guess where it will be tomorrow?
Newly
P.S. I didn't "try/need to sell in 89", I BOUGHT in '89, silly me!
I'm a Realtor in So. Calif. area, and I well remember the bursting of the housing bubble out here in '89. My own home lost nearly a third of its value. I bought that house at the top in '89 (great timing!), and had to wait until 2001 to sell it for breakeven!
Like the stock market, what goes up must come down. However, with a continuing growth in population, housing being a necessity, it never dies completely. Like the market crash in '29, the housing crash of '89 in Southern California with its massive price deflation, was a once-in-a-generation occurrence IMO, and the lessons learned by those who experienced it will not be easily forgotten.
Newly