Let's all climb mountains in 2016 -- no matter how much higher they get and how much shorter you get!
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Yah, and now all we have to do is figure out how to accumulate $250,000 of gain on our homes every two years <ggg>!
Newly
My understanding is that on capital gains from sale of primary residence if one has lived in it a total of two of the preceeding five years, up to $250,000 of capital gain is exempt from taxes for singles, up to $500,000 of gain for married couples. This exemption may be taken on sale of primary residences once every two years. Verify with your own accountant.
Newly
Tnx. I'll try that link afterhours.
Newly
Thanks, oeo2oo. Do you know, is there a quick source of info on who is hedged and who is not, or must I simply sift thru each company individually? TIA.
Newly
Any of the goldbugs here know right offhand whether RGLD, GLG and GSS are hedged or unhedged, or where I could find that info quickly?
Also anyone following SLGLF? I traded it last spring, but seem to remember I dumped it due to some major dilution back around July. Thoughts, anyone?
Newly
Wishing all a Safe, Prosperous and Happy 2003 (it's still only 6:30 p.m. here in California)!
To you, Zeev, a special thanks for sharing your trading skills with this board (and the S.I. board) all year, affording all of us the unique opportunity to observe (and learn from) a master trader at work.
Thank you, and best wishes to you and yours for the coming year.
Newly
P.S. And another big Thank You to all the other fine traders here (and we do have many superb ones) who share their insights on this thread -- it is much appreciated.
By the way, Dan, I prefer the term Goldbug, to Goldbugger, mainly because of the British definition of "bugger" (not nice!) <ggg>, but agree that Gold Bulls is much nicer!
Newly
Dan,
I also consider myself a goldbug, and didn't mean to imply traders in gold stocks (like us) are wishing evil on others, of course not! While I want the price of gold to go up, I also DON't want the economy to go down! Guess I want to have my cake and eat it too!
Like you, I am attempting to position myself to protect my assets in any future economic upheaval and believe it behooves us all to do so. I pray for the best to happen, but prepare for the worst just in case!
Sold a couple thousand CDE this morning at 1.95 -- probably should have held, but needed to lighten up and make my monthly goal <ggg>. Still holding plenty. Good luck with your gold stocks in 2003!
Newly
Thank you. Hope you got something positive you can use in your own life from it. Good luck with your trades in the coming year.
Newly
Goldbugs, be careful what you wish for!
While I'd love to see gold reach its full potential price (as I own both the bullion and the stocks), I also suspect that Gold Fever will only become endemic if everything else financial begins to fail, and people become truly frightened.
What we would gain in that one area, we would certainly lose in all other economic aspects of our lives (cost of living, devalued currency, debased savings, mortgages/housing, salaries, etc.), and those whose assets are not at least partly in gold or gold stocks would fare even worse. The extremes are truly frightening . . . While it is inevitable at some point, I suppose, let's hope we can dodge the bullet yet again for now.
Newly
Still in the "the more I learn the more ignorant I feel" mode myself.
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Paula,
Me, too, very much so! Been trading two years, full-time now since mid-2002, and I must admit I feel quite ignorant and quite the novice compared to most of the savvy traders here, but I seem to either 1) have good instincts after 20 years of LTBH, or 2) I'm Irish and therefore lucky. Mostly I try to keep to the simple basics (no Eliot waves for me) on the charts, and trust my inner voice.
For example, I decided to try Zeev's most recent DOW gambit, then found I could not follow the plan, as it was so very different from my normal trading style. Here are the results (double lots of each):
12/13 Bought IBM @ 78.79, sold 12/16 @ 80.67 (held over one weekend).
12/27 Rebought IBM @ 77.11, sold this a.m. @ 78.38 (held one weekend plus one day).
12/13 Bought MSFT @ 52.74, sold 12/16 @53.99 (held over one weekend).
12/13 Bought IP @ 34.49, sold 12/30 @35.01 (held one week plus two days -- a long hold for me).
12/27 Bought JNJ @ 53.21, sold 12/30 @ 53.99 (held over one weekend).
AA and XOM never reached buying range, and I didn't buy INTC or EK (no luck trading them in the past).
Total invested in DOW Gambit = $43,846; Total return = $1,140, or 2.6% return on invested capital. Pure luck, as things could have gone the other way (God takes care of little children, drunks and idiots -- I'm not sure which category He fits me into). Probably sold too soon. . .
I do realize that although my style is simple and primitive, (but successful for me), what works today won't work forever, so I continue to learn from the best traders I can find to watch.
Like the fabled disillusioned millionaire, I think the fun is in getting there, the challenge during this learning phase, before complacency and possibly boredom sets in with success.
Enjoy it while you can, and good luck to you.
Newly
Thank you.
I was kind of surprised myself (hope I haven't miscalculated somewhere <ggg>), since I've only been trading for two years, and not full-time until mid-year this year (my Realtor duties take up a lot of the spring months).
To be honest, I would have to admit a lot of the gain came from the PMs. I bought/sold gold bullion in the '70's and have owned gold stocks since '87. After 20 years of no returns on the gold stocks, this year has been FUN!
Newly
HAPPY (AND PROSPEROUS) NEW YEAR EVERYONE!
Reviewing 2002: Overall return on my portfolio 71%, average gain/trade 3.4%.
I only trade Long, prefer stocks under $15/shr (preferably under $5), I trade the PMs and trade them often (to quote Richard Mazzarelli on S.I.) and overnight holds still work well for me (buy below previous day's low, sell next day in first hour on gap up), though the risk is increasing. Rarely hold longer than a day or two. Find DODs (Disasters of the Day) lucrative to trade, but had to learn (got missing fingers to prove it) to let the falling knife hit the floor before jumping in!
Biggest trading problem? Selling too soon, leaving bulk of gain on the table.
Best lesson learned? Buying at the right price (a daily OB) is key to making profits and lowers risk/stress in the trade.
Best lesson learned from watching Zeev trade? Honor the S/Ls -- one can always buy the issue back at a lower price later. THANK YOU, ZEEV!
This strategy works well for me for now. Ready to change/adjust it as necessary.
Best trading to all in 2003!
Newly
Beginning of the end for housing?
http://www.inman.com/printer.asp?ID=33363
Newly
Tnx. I'll check it out.
Newly
How is that affected by S-T vs. L-T gains/losses?
My understanding is that one deducts all L-T losses from L-T gains first, and deduct all S-T losses from S-T gains. Then, one can deduct any S-T loss from any L-T gains or deduct L-T loss from S-T gains. If both S-T and L-T result in losses, just add them together and write off $3K against regular income, and carry the rest forward to 2003. If the final result is a gain instead of a loss, it is reported as S-T or L-T, whichever is appropriate.
Do you know if that's correct? I'm not sure about the mix of L-T and S-T gains/loss. TIA.
Newly
Makes sense. Being single, it didn't occur to me that married couples would need twice as many accounts <ggg>. I have six myself, but at 4 different brokerages. Tnx.
Newly
". . .it's December 30th and the Realtors are still "predicting" a record "2002"! Seems like they would know!"
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No, we don't know until about mid-January when the National Association of Realtors tabulates everything nationwide and publishes the results! However, we DO know in our own little corners of the world. I've been a Realtor for 20 years, and 2002 was my second best year (for earnings) yet -- due partly to higher prices rather than higher number of sales!
Newly
$1/100 shares = $.01/shr, up to what limit? TIA.
Newly
Oh. Don't mean to be nosey, but why would you have 8 separate accounts at one brokerage? I can understand one cash/margin account, one IRA and one Roth, but 8 I don't get.
Medved seems to be the only platform I can find that can trade accounts at multiple brokerages from one place.
I'm still considering Cybertrader. They offer a lot more for the price ($9.95) than most of my brokerages, where I pay higher commissions ($14.95-20.95). I do like the daytraders' platform at Cybertrader -- and it's free with (I think) it is 50 traders per month.
Newly
Joe, Tnx for your input. I gather the 8 accounts you mention are at a variety of companies but can all be traded from the Schwab platform, is that correct?
Newly
Mlsoft, I am also looking at Cybertrader -- commissions are reasonable considering you get the daytraders' platform free with volume of trades (one-week free trial available at their website before you open an account). Would be interested to hear what you think of the daytraders' platform. TIA.
Newly
Oh (sheepish grin)! Right! Tnx.
Newly
Huh?
Newly
Anyone know why USPI is up 1.10 today? Couldn't find any news.
Newly
Unlike the stock market, where investments are highly liquid, the real estate market, which is highly illiquid, moves in slow motion.
During the '89 housing crash here in So.California, at first volume of sales fell, while asking prices remained high. By '91 prices were falling by $5-10K/mo., and a glut of foreclosed properties appeared on the market, creating further downside pressure on prices. By about '93 housing lenders were going belly up.
Housing prices did not reach bottom until around '95-'96, and didn't begin to rise significantly again until around '98.
At the bottom, a home that sold for $275,000 in '89 was worth about $170,000, a drop of 38%. That same house sold for $305,000 in '00 and is worth around $375K today, a rise of about 120% off the low.
Foreclosures nationally are already high, which puts pressure on asking prices, but with low mortgage interest rates and no-or-low-downpayment financing still available, a slowing in sales is more likely in '03 than a precipitous housing crash IMHO.
Newly (my main source of income the past 20 years came from working as a top-producing Realtor in So.Calif. -- until I discovered daytrading, that is!!)
STOCKS, BONDS, WAR & MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES.
http://www.inman.com/printer.asp?ID=33281
Newly
Good one, Bob! I'll have to try that next time.
Newly
Dangerous. Less equity, more likely owner is to walk away come hard times.
Looks like the Fed wants inflation -- far preferable to deflation in my opinion. Inflationary times people flee from cash to hard assets like real estate. While rate of home price increases may stall in the near term, if we get inflation, home sales will likely hold up and prices (in cheaper dollars) are likely to continue to rise. Deflation is another story . . .
JMO.
Newly
"I was born in 1945 and I did not receive a vaccination - ever. And I know that several others, also, did not receive a small pox vaccination."
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That's surprising. Where I grew up (N.J.) one could not get into school without a certificate of smallpox vaccination. No exceptions!
Newly
Ha, ha! I'm with you -- I'm still holding a few from $60.94, a hang-over from my days as a LTBHer! Been trading GLW for a while now, getting my $$s back the hard way -- one at a time <ggg>!
Newly
Sandy,
There are many ways to skin a cat. Every trader has to discover what works for them personally and develop their own successful trading style.
Not many are as nimble as Zeev, nor as confident in their prognostications to successfully (as you say) keep "adding to a position that is going against one . . . ...then, holding the underwater position o/n". Zeev is an exceptional trader.
The "rules" of trading are platitudes meant to offer guidance to newbies, and like all constraining rules, they are usually broken with impunity by the best in the field.
For most of us, "Do not try this at home!" is more appropriate.
Newly
anyone have a good site for checking ex-dividend dates? Had one, but can't find it now. TIA.
Newly
At upscale fashion mall yesterday (South Coast Plaza) south of L.A. in California. Foottraffic light, parking a breeze. Only lines for cashiers at two low-end stores (Sears and Macy's) and a few specialty shops.
Noted not many shoppers carrying lots of shopping bags. Also surprised at Nordstroms (high-end) selling much merchandise 30-50% off (less than during their half-yearly sale earlier this year!) -- also noted many "made in China" clothes labels in this upscale store.
Huge discounts at most stores really surprised me two weeks before Christmas. Looks like deflation has certainly arrived at our malls.
Newly
Same here. I've used IB for over two years and never had that happen before. Thought maybe it was because I was on PalTalk at the same time. Nice to know it wasn't my system that was the problem.
Newly
Interactive Brokers just went down on me. Anyone else having problems?
Newly
HAPPY (and safe) THANKSGIVING ONE AND ALL, AND REMEMBER IN YOUR HEARTS TO BE THANKFUL FOR THE BLESSINGS WE HAVE RECEIVED IN SUCH GOODLY MEASURE IN THIS COUNTRY, EVEN IN THESE TOUGH TIMES.
Newly
I remember in British Columbia seeing a mother bear who had been hit by a truck and had twin cubs with her. A hunter was keeping them alive (since mom was unable to hunt) by killing rabbits and leaving them out for the bears, and I thought, 'Oh, isn't that sweet of him.'
I later realized he was a tourist (hunters') guide, and wanted to keep these bears alive (and friendly) so his clients could later shoot them easily when they came looking for dinner!
Life is full of disillusionments!
Newly
Yes. Not as much fun as daytrading in a margin account, but hey, there are advantages: it's tax-free trading in a Roth IRA, tax-deferred in a standard IRA, no paperwork to keep track of, no income tax reporting. Of course, no tax write-off for losing trades.
The limit (cash at beginning of day) only applies to purchases. They don't care whether you sell the same day or not, but if you do, you can reuse the returned funds (not any profit) the same day to buy again, but cannot sell that lot the same day (that's a bit scarey, so I never reuse the funds the same day, I just switch to another account).
The biggest problem I have is keeping track of which trades are in which accounts, and jumping around to complete them (4 of my trading accounts are some type of IRA, only 2 are margin accounts).
Newly
Well, that's an image I'd prefer not to carry over Thanksgiving.
Newly