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Everything stated in the article is true, but it misses the real reason for the trend towards cheaper notebooks:
*** LCD screen prices are finally coming down strong. ***
The screen used to be almost half of the cost of a notebook computer, and the main reason for its higher price. High margin LCD prices have moved to HDTV screens, (which are larger) and computer screens are becoming commodities.
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That can only mean good news for the computer industry because laptops have higher margins than their rival the desktop.
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This again is another half-truth: notebooks have (slighter) higher margins but lowering screen prices are having the effect of commoditizing laptops not helping computer industry much.
I just bought a nice laptop for $540 bucks, (because I needed it) and I expect to be able to buy one by Xmas for $400. I doubt Compaq (HP) is making much money out of it.
H.
That WAS funny!
Really made me laugh.
(Because I don't live in Bolivia)
H.
Yeah, sorry.
I know recesion in Europe is "almost" official. Here in America we are still in deep denial, as the economy is kept barely out of it by artificial means. (And bare faced lies)
But you undesrtood exactly what I meant anyway. <g>
Interesting times we are living in...
H.
Some lady in CNBC is parroting that crude is going down because these attacks are targeting buses that run on gas.
How silly is that? Don't they think before they open their mouths? (If less people take buses more will drive cars...)
Crude is down on the possibility that renewed terrorist attacks can precipitate a recesion.
Also: nobody on TV is talking about the possibility of rush hour attacks in USA. Why? They don't want to frighten the sheeple?
I hate TV journalism.
H.
I understand what you are saying,
but people commuting to work don't have many choices.
Think of the dilemma of transit authorities: They can close the subway system in NY and play into the terrorists hand, or leave it open and risk to be called irresponsible if an explosion occurs.
I bet at this moment they are frantically searching for explosives in public vehicles in NY, Washington, etc.
H.
Lee,
the London attack was in the middle of morning rush-hour.
Subway and Bus services are now shut down.
Who is going to commute to work in NY and other cities without feeling at least some fear?
How many are going to stay at home sick?
This is what terrorism is all about...
H.
Just a guess...
This pattern HAS to mean something. <g>
If I'm right we'll have the opportunity to hear some loud noises soon enough.
H.
Hi Lee,
I know your trading style, and I enjoy following your trades. (Although I seldom post)
I know you are usually flat at the end of the day.
My point was that even if the odds favor a gap up tomorrow due to closing at the lows, in this case the slide has been so relentless (and controlled) that I'd venture say it won't happen.
All the best,
H.
YM: It's amazing, in the last 20 minutes there's has been no bounce whatsoever, just a steady slide down.
I'd guess somebody big is quietly unloading.
Somehow I don't expect a gap up tomorrow... <g>
H.
Bastids! They mess up all the charts! (And trading systems, and...)
From now on I'm going to have a buy-limit always some 40-50 points ahead of the market to try and catch these spikes...
H.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
kinda like Russell Crowe.Did they throw a phone at the selfish jerk?
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I saw (by chance) the actual security video in a foreign newscast.
It was a bit grainy but it looked like Russell actually took a swing (and connected) at the clerk using the handset as a fist-weight.
H.
We don't disagree at all.
If MSFT doesn't drop Mac Office then AAPL won't have to develop an "Office Look-alike" which makes the transition cheaper for AAPL. (But AAPL needs to have a contingency plan in place anyway...)
H.
What you say is true, but it doesn't make sense for AAPL to pay a stiff price just to switch chipsets and stop there.
There has to be a whole strategy in place, and I'm only trying to guess what it could be.
Selling a low-cost Mac computer that only runs Windows XP is NOT in AAPL's interest. (They have always said that their crown-jewel is its OS)
So the new Mac will run Mac OS. With this premise in mind I think that my Mid Term, and Long Term predictions just flow naturally.
(Mid term being a couple of years, and Long Term five years or so... --This is not stock trading we are talking here.<g>)
H.
PS:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Macs contain a fair amount of proprietary hardware & firmware that is just not present in any Intel PC today.
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This used to be true 10 years ago. Current Macs have fairly standard hardware. (and firmware can always be emulated)
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Also, the suggestion that Windows may someday be able to run native on Mac computers is also premature, again because of this propietary h/w & f/w.
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There's nothing propietary here. If you manufacture the hardware you can put all the "hooks" you want. (As Taiwan clone makes used to do a few years back) Then the user pays $100 for an off-the-shelf Windows XP CD and installs it...
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I do not think that it will be easy to transfer Mac OS to the Intel architecture.
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Agreed.
(But even in the "old days" when Mac OS was Motorola-68000-based there were strong rumors that AAPL had a version running in Intel chips.)
The main issue for AAPL is if they decide that it's worthy to go frontally against MSFT, for that they need to develop a complete Office Suite as loss-leader.
Of course the transition will be slow, and labored, but the alternative is to be stuck permanently with only 8% of the market.
Probably they think that iTunes, iLife, etc., and added exposure through iPod, give them enough leverage to try and go mainstream.
H.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
APPLE TO USE INTEL CHIPS....thoughts anyone?
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Short Term: Any change generates Turmoil. I don't think AAPL share price will benefit right away. (BWDIK?)
Medium Term: Apple computers will be able to run both Mac OS, and Windows XP in native mode. (Increased flexibility)
Long Term: As Mac OS will run on Intel Computers AAPL might choose to market Mac OS to Windows XP users, and try to challenge MSFT monopoly in OS's. (A bit far fetched, because MSFT have a strong hold on Office, Explorer, Outlook, etc. but it's about time they are seriously contested)
H.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Hello all. I've been out all week due to a rattlesnake bite
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Whoaaaa! It looks like some people here have a far more interesting life than me... <g>
Happy to know you are well.
H.
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To start daytrading you need $550,000. Take 500,000 and put it in safe high yielding instruments. Trade the 50K for a long time. If you lose it all, find a job. If you can increase it reliably over time, then think about kicking in some more capital.
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osprey,
best advice on the matter so far.
(And I'm not joking either...)
H.
Thank you for sharing that excellent article!
H.
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The end goal of a SUCCESSFUL parasite(a credit card)is NOT to kill it's host(the public) but to feed off of it.
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Well put!
H.
Yep,
you are right.
The quote also works as a not-so-veiled threat.
H.
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"Some well-meaning critics believe that Wal-Mart, because of our size, should play the role that General Motors played after World War II, and that is to establish the post-world war middle-class that the country is so proud of. The facts are that retailing doesn't perform that role in the economy as GM does or did. Retailing doesn't perform that role in any country in the world."
--H. Lee Scott, Jr., Chief Executive, Wal-Mart, May 3, 2005
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Fed Res, that's a killer quote by Lee Scott!
Thanks for bringing it out into our attention.
At the risk of stating the obvious let me try a translation into plain-speak:
In the same way as GM defined the preponderant-class in the after-war years, Walmart is doing the same today, but do not expect it to be a "middle-class" but only a "low-class"
Further translation: (again: borderline obvious)
The middle-class that shaped the 50's to 80's (or 90's?) has dissapeared with the decline of GM, and all that the new main "industries" can support now is lower-class.
H.
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A political post now from 'Huluriasquias'
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Yep!
Isn't it I N F U R I A T I N G ??? <bg>
(And who died and made you cop of this thread, please tell?)
(And what are you going to do about it? Put me in jail without habeas corpus?)
Please take you facism elsewhere...
H.
Cut it out, Simple.
You remind me of a certain big-country president who imposes "Democracy" to far-away people who are not interested in it, while he makes it disappear at home...
H.
What is private between Bass and you should have remained private.
Your lack of manners makes any further communication pointless.
As far as I'm concerned you can follow Bass' advice <g>
H.
Simple,
with all due respect you should take a hint from the fact that N O B O D Y seconded you in your motion to censor Bass.
The "No Politics" mandate is a very wise one, but once in a while we allow for small transgressions, and borderline comments.
Ron Paul comments might be considered politics because the guy is a politician. But on the other hand they talk about economics so it could be argued they are relevant to trading.
I for one consider most of Basserdan posts as valuable, and this present attack on him as a rather rigid interpretation of the "rules"
Take care.
H.
Good Article. Thanks!
The proposed solution is (sadly) unrealistic, but it's the best explanation of cause that I have read. i.e.: "Zero cost --> infinite demand for social services"
H.
Spare me!
Maven,
you didn't buy from Amazon directly but from Amazon Marketplace which is a different animal.
You bought from one of a group of small merchants that are advertising in Amazon, bill through Amazon, but ship from their own shops/homes.
The shipping times Amazon provides are conveniently "padded" to cover for the small merchant eventual delay.
On the other hand note that everytime I bought from Amazon Marketplace (usually used books) I got excellent product, service, and delivery time was about a week. (Ground)
Regards,
H.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Perhaps your company got stomped on.
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Sure it did. But not by MSFT. And it was done the "American way" with a better product and better marketing. (By Caere Omnipage --And I still have a poster of their product on my wall. I'm not sore about it in any way as I had plenty of time to move over to other projects)
There was a time in MSFT history when they passed the voice that they were interested in buying other software companies with interesting products. Lots of people I know very well beat a path to Seattle to showcase their wares. There they were told that they were interested but they had to be sure that these products could be added easily to Windows, and they got the technical people to spill the beans of how things were constructed.
MSFT never bought a single company at that time but the next version of Windows (95 or 98, my memory is not what it used to be) incorporated many of these "gadgets" Many of my friends' companies were quickly out of business.
We never went to Seattle, (mainly because it was a long trip from Miami) and that is why OCR was never a part of Windows. <g>
I have thousands of similar stories. Maybe the worse is what they did to the Mosaic people. Basically MSFT negotiated the non-exclusive rights to Internet Explorer in exchange for a % of sales. Great deal for Mosaic? Not if MSFT gives it away for free. Mosaic gets $0 from the deal, and on top of that has to compete against its own product that MSFT is giving away for free. Blame it on a poor contract? Probably, but all negotiations in the end have to be made on good faith...
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we don't consider US immoral
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Countries are amoral.
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In my mind, Microsoft has contributed to the advancement of a very important technology in a very important manner.
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Well. I'm just trying to give you a different perspective in the *unlikely* case you have been brainwashed...
After answering the original message I took to thinking who (as opposed to Gates) I would consider to be a "moral, successful" businessman. My first impulse was Warren Buffett, but then I realized that all info I have about him is third-hand or worse, and I might be falling in the same position you are with respect to Gates.
That leaved me with Steve Jobs. (Not that the guy is a saint, mind you)
Somehow Gates has hijacked from Jobs the titles of trend-setter, and innovator. (What a joke!)
While in Apple, Jobs pushed for innovation with a better human interface in the Lisa, and later in the Mac. Created out of thin air the ill-fated Newton, later made useful by other company in the form of the Palm.
Next (his next company) was a failure. But then he moved to Pixar and changed the way people does animation. (Being widely imitated now)
He came back to AAPL, and now has the definitive portable music system (iPod)
While doing all this things he always pushed for quality. You might not like macs, but you cannot question their designs. Same with iPods, and same with the story lines of the cartoons Pixar released. Gates would have stopped with the graphic delivery. Jobs was aiming at the total package.
I'm not a Jobs biographer, and everything above was from the top of my head, so I apologize for any mistake or omission, but I think you get the general idea.
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When we settled in US, the natives were pretty much screwed
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Yep. But I still consider giving them booze as immoral. (Not to say anything about the smallpox infected blankets. --Those guys sure thought of themselves as smart!)
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It doesn't really matter whether they did it immorally. History will judge it well
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Sure. History is written by the winners.
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you on the other hand won't be remembered
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I stated that myself in the original post.
Being remembered by history have never been my goal. Collective memory can only hold about 10000 people. If you got to be remembered you have to compete for a place with a lot of weird people: Hitler, Stalin, Manson... the demonized: Saddam, Noriega, Kadafi... the bleached-tombed: Rockefeller, Morgan, Vanderbilt, Gates, Joe Kennedy... the sainted: Mother Theresa, Gandhi, Mandela(!?)... the mediocre: Bush, Kerry, Eminem, Britney...
Have I offended enough people already? <g>
Regards,
H.
Somebody once said that capital is amoral.
Well, there's amoral, and there's immoral. (I have never seen moral capital succeed for longer than a few years...)
Microsoft clearly belongs with the immoral capital. It has been build on the base of deceiving, and scr*wing the competition. (Among other things...) Typical vulture enterprising.
Do not mistake succeeding with being successful.
Late in his (business) life Gates seems to be worried about what posterity might think of him. That's why we have a Gates Foundation to join the likes of a Rockefeller Foundation, a Vanderbilt Foundation, etc.
They were not good people. Neither is Gates.
A good PR Firm can re-write history, and suppress what was not written. When people (like me) that followed closely his ascendance to fame and fortune pass away we will be left with the pristine Gates of the History books.
H.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
All most everyone I talk to doesn't even want to discuss stocks. They think it's all a scam.
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It has always been a scam. The powers that be have the game rigged through commissions, spread, slippage, obfuscation, and feeding frenzies. (To mention only the "legal" ones...)
You have to be really good to overcome these obstacles. (Not me, so far)
I consider the financial world to be populated by sharks, and I fancy myself a lowly Pilot Fish trying to snag some morsels without becoming dinner myself.
H.
Exit 2/3 of CCMP long position at $39.60
Now I can sit back and relax...
H.
From now to 2:22 tomorrow a lot can happen. <g> We can even have a run to about 2015 if we break away from 2001 in the COMPX...
It seems to be happening. Let's see if the market can hold on to it...
H.
Oh, I had seen that one... (I read ALL messages although I seldom post)
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I am out and would get back on a retrench under $35 for a possible move to $40, maybe even $45.
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Are you still waiting for $35 in CCMP? I reckon this is the run to $40-$45...
Also, you give a target of $35 for SNDK, but nothing for MRVL. A box for MRVL would be nice.
I doubled my money (again, in a small account. You cannot win everything...) going long and shorting CCMP on your comments during this last month or so. (Using margin, of course)
Even if the trades are my own, and I accept full responsibility for them (specially if I lose money) I cannot deny that you had a big influence in them. <g>
Thanks again.
H.
Zeev,
Could you please share your latest thoughts about CCMP? I know that you sold a couple of days ago at 36, and probably didn't get back in. I was not around at that time and I am lucky to be still holding it.
Is the current box 36-40? Do you have any "feel" for its future movements?
I'm also holding some MRVL. Any thoughts on that? Box?
(My main investment is flipping Rydex funds, and YM day trading, but I started following some of your mid-term recommendations in a small account about a month ago with outstanding results. Keep on the good work!)
H.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
and nobody wins...
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Regretfully that seems to be the corollary to this election. <ng>
H.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I'd vote for ZEEV before I'd vote for Bush <g>
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There's no contest.
One of them is not a politician...
H.
*** OT OT OT (but quite funny...)
Two short movies:
Voting Machine:
mms://streamingmedia.cyso.nl/cyso.nl/Voting_Machine.wmv
Instant Poll:
mms://ondemand.xs4all.nl/bchicago/Kerry_Insta_Poll.wmv
Happy Trading!
H.
On Edit: they don't show as links because they are not http's. (They are streamed media) Just copy and paste the line in the address space of your browser. No harm should be done to your computer...
Susie,
no need to apologize.
While it is true that this is a traders board the "Out of Topic" discussions here are among of the best of the net! (And long term stock holding cannot be THAT much out of topic anyway...)
The real question I believe you were asking was: "Has AIG been damaged enough to warrant liquidating the holdings?"
And Zeev gave you his answer: "Nope, it's still a good company. Just weather the storm."
I don't believe you were out of place, although I can understand people being slightly disappointed when they realized you were not talking about gazillions and gazillions of dollars here... <g>
H.