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I think you underestimate the breadth of research done by analysts. If it's traded, analysts have looked at it. If an analyst gets "surprised" by a company that breaks out, I would imagine that he/she would be equally surprised by the pink slip from their employer for their failure to satisfactorily perform their job.
I think that explanations consisting of "analyst's shortcomings", "short sellers", and "manipulators" are often offered as rationalizations to explain investor discontent or disappointment ... not always but often enough.
It just strikes me that sufficient information is now available for the market to anticipate whether this is going to be a stock that has the probability of significant share price appreciation.
Estimated revenue numbers are discussed on this forum. Assume for a moment that they are accurate. Analysts would also know these numbers. They would then look at the likelihood of whether these final TSA administrative requirements will occur in a fashion such that IMSC will be the primary beneficiary. If they are, that is ENORMOUS for a company like this.
That analysis has likely already happened. Once again, that begs the question that bothers me. Why has there not been a dramatic increase in the share price if everything is on track for IMSC? Or perhaps another question .... Has the outcome of the final administrative hurdles already been priced into the share price?
I understand that these are rhetorical questions and no one knows the answer. We only have opinions at this point. But the answer to these two questions are going to make a big difference in all of our financial happiness with IMSC!
Pat
What puzzles me (and concerns me) the most .... if all of these "indicators" (CRADA, US-Africa meeting, massive production, etc.) make such a persuasive case that a TSA contract is a virtual "given", then why has this collective information NOT driven the share price to levels that everyone has been projecting once the administrative formalities are announced and confirmed?
Logic suggests to me there can be only two possibilities. 1) "The street" doesn't share the same levels of confidence for contract awards that we all hope for, or 2) "the street" DOES share the same level of confidence for contract awards and the share price appreciation of the past couple of months is the result of that confidence. In other words, the street has already priced the good news into the stock. Seems like it has to be one or the other, no?
After all, "buy the rumor, sell the news" is an old Wall Street adage for a reason. Have we witnessed the first half of this adage already?
Pat
From the looks of things you may want to delay your "loading". You may be able to get it cheaper if you're patient.
Pat
Share price takin' a horse whippin' lately ....
Pat
"I will just use the term..."IF"... QPL and a following subsequent TSA order does take place ...that this statement you made ,will go down as one of the most idiotic,moronic posts ever made...jmo"
Clearly you've not read some of my other posts! <G>
Good luck to us.
Pat
I don't disagree with your observation about recent share price appreciation. On the other hand, I'm guessing that most would hope that the anticipated confirmation of blockbuster news would result in a share price increase with an order of magnitude far greater than the recent relatively small increase (in dollar and cents terms rather than percentage) prior to the legal story appearing.
The point I was trying to make was simply, why not a dramatic jolt in share price if the market truly believed that such unprecedented revenue was headed to IMSC's books? The market, it appears, does not currently share the optimism for dramatic share price increase due to a financial windfall heading to IMSC .... or perhaps the share price increases in recent months DO reflect the extent to which the market believes this news should impact share price. Has the market already priced in this "windfall" and values the shares accurately at $1.25 - $1.30 as a result of anticipated business with TSA?
Time will tell but I'm leaning toward the opinion that the market has already priced in TSA's potential business and the current price accurately reflects fair value for the stock with the anticipated TSA contract. Having said that, I'd like nothing more than to be wrong! <G>
Pat
Here's a question for the board .....
IF, as we are led to believe, it is only an administrative event that is holding back the riches that will drive the share price up, why is this "certainty" not currently priced into the stock? After all, it's only "paperwork" that's delaying the inevitable, right?
Let's state it another way .... Because the share price HASN'T reacted to this "certainty", IS there something unknown that is holding the share price down? After all, the presumptive revenue that lies ahead should be enough to launch the share price right now, no?
Perhaps I'm merely asking, "Why is the market holding down the share price of a company that is a "lock" to get a gigantic government contract which will generate unprecedented revenue for the company? Is it really a "lock"?
Could an existing "unknown" be what's lifted up a rock to get a legal firm sniffing around?
I'm really not trying to start WW III here. Just curious to see if anyone else senses that this might be evolving into just one more "story stock" where everyone will one day be saying, "I should have seen this coming when I simply accepted as fact that we had a lock on a huge sole source contract yet it was clear that the share price was not reacting as it should to this kind of news."
Thoughts?
Pat
"So if you are wrong, will you resign from making posts?"
If you implement that policy for all of us, this forum would be a ghost town!!
Pat
I'm not looking for any concessions .... just thinking out loud like everyone else. Like I've mentioned before, I haven't a clue of what's really going on here while recognizing that no one else yet does either. Time will eventually make it all clear.
Pat
Perhaps law firms use the content of stock forums/blogs as a resource to find companies that might be candidates for this type of activity.
I wonder what the share price reaction would be to a release from the SEC if/when they publicize a notice that they're investigating complaints lodged by shareholders against this law firm. Stay tuned ... maybe we'll get a chance to find out! <G>
Pat
I'm not sure why anyone thinks that Levi & Korsinsky has done anything wrong. They essentially have asked if anyone has information about possible "wrong-doings". Many of those who are posting about how scandalous this is have also suggested on this very forum in the past that the company has deliberately misled investors in terms of timelines, approval dates, etc. Is it merely because we have a law firm that is making similar inquiries about the company rather than individual posters? There have been no specific accusations made by Levi & Korsinsky .... certainly nothing that is as direct and specific as some alleged by posters on this forum in the past. There is absolutely nothing to fear unless there ARE shenanigans being perpetrated.
If, as some suggest, this is routine protocol for Levi & Korisnky, then why the continuing apprehension?
Pat
Worst PR decision that could be made would be for IMSC to formally respond to this incident. Once they set a precedent for responding to one allegation thrown their way, they will HAVE to respond to EVERY allegation from that point forward.
If they don't respond to a subsequent allegation after having responded to a first, they will have defacto provided more credibility for any subsequent allegations. For example, imagine these headlines: "Concern is heightened because IMSC has not responded to these new allegations even though they have a track record of commenting on all previous allegations that have implied wrongdoing."
It takes discipline but from a PR standpoint, responding to allegations like this are suicidal. Not to mention, the more that this story is kept alive by denials and counter-denials, the longer bad publicity stays in the headlines. Never mind that it ties up PR and investor relations people unnecessarily. It's a bad play to make any statement.
For those who will ask, "So you just want to let some schmuck throw rocks and not respond?" My answer is "YES". The story will die a quick and natural death if left alone. Don't provide a counter story to keep it alive. This is an elementary PR 101 case study. To me, how they handle this will be a reflection of the quality of IMSC management.
Pat
"They are looking for a lead plaintiff!"
Yes, that's what I was suggesting it resembled but I certainly don't have a clue of what's at work here.
Pat
I hope not as well. I'm not a lawyer but don't the beginning of class action suits often go through a notice period like this?. A legal firm posts a notice that seeks shareholders for the purpose of finding a lead person for a class action suit. I'm not suggesting that there is any legal problem here, or even that this is what this is all about, but instances that develop into class action suits often begin with similar requests such as this, no? Again, I have absolutely no knowledge of what this firm might think has occurred (or if this is even what I suggest it might be) but at this point it sure takes on the appearance of other instances where a law firm might be trolling for a lead person.
Let's hope it all disappears and this post is way off base. The stock seems to be recovering from the initial shock wave. That's a good sign.
Pat
Call me a chump but I dumped half of my holdings at $1.30 based on the news. I'm now riding the other half for free. In a worst case scenario, my profit will be based on whatever pocket change that I choose to sell the remainder. Hopefully this news amounts to nothing but I'm cautiously preserving capital. I've watched too many others ride their speculative investments that were doing well down to zero.
Good luck to us.
Pat
"Do you think those at TSA don't look at the finances of a company they are potentially to do business with?
You bet they do."
Agreed. I have full confidence that the TSA will financially scrutinize companies as rigorously as did the Department of Energy when they awarded $500 million dollars to Solyndra. Only a cynic would not have confidence in the ability of Federal agencies to be good stewards of taxpayer dollars.
Pat
What a breakthrough!!! A partnership for two companies to jointly try to find work!
Pat
Support?
Pat
Agreed. That would give the pilot a nanosecond's notice before his brain was sprayed into the clouds.
Pat
A vote of confidence for our new CEO?
Pat
I'm thinking $3.00 is about the right price to buy. I wonder how wrong I'll be ....
Pat
Thanks for sharing. Good luck to us.
Pat
I'd be interested to hear from a "newbie" investor what it is that you find to be so impressive other than the obvious recent price appreciation. Nice to hear perspective from a new set of eyes. Care to share your thoughts? TIA.
Pat
"Looking into RUSS"
Are you a proctologist?
Pat
All of this news has been factored into the share price for some time. The announcement of confirmed orders is the only thing that will favorably impact share price. A token quantity of orders, or delays in orders will erode share price. Sadly, I predict more waiting and accompanying erosion ...
Pat
It's pretty tough to question motives of some who might want to take some off the table after some fairly significant gains. This stock was trading around 10 cents as recently as this past February. Few investors/traders see those kinds of profits so quickly. Of course, there's a possibility that the stock will continue to climb but there are far more "war stories" about lost profits than those who successfully sell after five or ten baggers.
Nobody knows with certainty what the future holds for this stock or any stock. All stocks are only one lawsuit away from a precipitous drop. (I'm certainly not suggesting that there are concerns in this area). Sometimes it's wise to take the money and run. If someone is worried about CTDH running after they sell it, they should keep a few shares in their "permanent" portfolio to satisfy their hope that this is the "arriving dream ship" for which they've been waiting.
We all dream about hitting the homerun but it rarely happens. Congratulations to those who are capturing their profits. Well done! .... and good luck to those who continue to hold for even greater profits.
Pat
How did you arrive at that number?
Pat
Oh no! Please say it isn't so......
Pat
Buying pressure seems to be coming from the Ihub crowd? From what are you drawing that conclusion?
Pat
"But... there is always an "end" to everything..."
I agree. And only AFTER that inevitable "end" occurs might the company be put up for sale IMHO.
Pat
Meany is as happy as a clam with the status quo. His forte has always been with military contracts and that's where he'll likely direct his energies. That doesn't create huge numbers so I'd say MKRS is fairly priced.
It seems like the P&D newsletters are the ones who can make a person big money with this stock. unfortunately, they don't play it that often. But when they do, it's nice.
IMHO, the company will be sold over Meany's dead body .... and I mean that quite literally. I don't believe he'd ever sell this company regardless of the offer. It's his life.
Pat
Does anyone know Bolduc's political persuasion? With this administration, being on the wrong side can be costly. Best of breed or not, IMSC may be persona non grata if not aligned "properly".
Pat
Let's hope it wasn't somebody who forgot to remove his GTC order from a month ago. <G>
Pat
Somebody unloaded about 125k shares pretty quickly!
Pat
What was that explosion I just heard?
Pat
".... the rest of the world has accepted IMSC products except this stupid government and it's mafia like procurement procedures."
You knew about the procurement corruption that you mention and invested your money in IMSC anyway?
Pat
"The company desperately needs to use the services of a PR team that can really help get the word out to investors."
... and just what word would you like this PR team to put out to investors? Please buy some so the price will move up in spite of the fact that we have no particular newsworthy information that is currently unknown to the investment community?
Pat
At the risk of offending some ... IMHO Wilson ALWAYS has a plan and that's about as far as he goes. When the pressure is put on him to produce, he usually answers the bell with yet another "plan". That'll temporarily satisfy some and when that plan doesn't show any progress, he'll come up with another plan to keep the wolves at bay. Rinse and repeat. He is the man with a plan. I wish we had someone who knew how to enact a plan. IMHO it isn't Wilson who is that man.
Pat
They could very well be a takeover target someday but I was just curious as to how the content of that particular statement suggested to the author the possibility of a potential takeover.
Pat
"On the broader front, we continue to pursue the expansion of the ADEPT product line and introduction of our engineering expertise to international and commercial markets."
A potential buyout scenario is your take from that sentence?
Pat