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I guess the VIX can get higher. With all the accounting stuff, money pulling out, terrorist-war issues. All in all, we should be nearing a major market bottom soon IMHO. That is, if we haven't already had the NDX low.
Fletch
It looks like the market is scared, per vix readings. I always thought that vix over 35 was a good area to buy. Historically the vix doesn't stay up here very long, BWDIK.
Also, my friend......plunging buck. Helping to keep that vix high.
Closing Summary: In a disturbing trend, equities tanked into the close once again. There's not a very clear reason, but it could be sell programs heading into the close. We've even heard talk that some speculators have begun shorting the market in anticipation of the 2 ET redemption/margin call deadline at mutual funds and brokerage houses. We cannot be certain, but it's probably is a contributing factor to the trend...
http://biz.yahoo.com/mu/update.html
When will the dollar find some support and can we rally with this happening?
Fletch
Dollar doesn't like Sunday nights.
and so as the $ falls, gold goes up.
Futures slightly negative.
http://www.cme.com/wrappedpages/delayed_intraday_quotes/10min_globex_flash_quote/gflash.html
Fletch
Zeev,
I know you can only follow just so many companies but one I like Fundamentally is ARMHY. Their chip designs are in all kinds of things from phones to cars. Royalties should continue to come in and no debt. IMHO it could be at least a double in the next six months.
Fletch
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/armhy.html
Zeev,
I've kinda been wondering if a Nebacle is worse then a Nassacre? Both are bad but Nassacre sounds worse for some reason. <g>
Fletch
Microsoft Seen as Earnings Stand-Out
Sun Jul 14, 2:16 PM ET
By Lisa Baertlein
PALO ALTO, Calif. (Reuters) - Business software makers, with the exception of industry titan Microsoft Corp. , are in the summer of their discontent and this week's earnings reports will underscore that view, analysts said.
Virtually every software company is smarting from a steep post-bubble drop in corporate technology spending. Analysts, many of whom have grown weary of betting on when a recovery will come, said that quarterly numbers from major players SAP AG , PeopleSoft Inc. and Siebel Systems Inc. will offer few clues as to when the embattled sector will get some relief.
Analysts expect Microsoft's sales for the quarter ended June 30 to be resilient, thanks to strong corporate demand ahead of a change in its software licensing practices that made up for weak PC-related sales. They also noted that products from the world's No. 1 software company, which also is set to report results this week, are relatively inexpensive compared with those from vendors such as Siebel or SAP.
"With the exception of Microsoft, we're going to see a fair amount of weakness and a lot of uncertainty," Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. analyst Charles Di Bona told Reuters.
"We're sort of into a long, hot summer," he said.
WEAKNESS ABOUNDS
Dozens of software shops -- including fallen Wall Street darlings E.piphany Inc. and i2 Technologies Inc. , along with long-time database vendor Sybase Inc. -- already have said they will miss their targets.
SAP AG jolted U.S. and European stock markets last Thursday with a warning that its second-quarter results would fall short of forecasts.
The German software giant, which supplies the code that helps automate tasks like accounting, human resources and sales at many of the world's biggest companies, also conceded that it would not meet its previous guidance calling for 15 percent year-on-year software sales growth. It's now targeting an increase of 5 percent to 10 percent.
While Siebel and PeopleSoft have not warned, analysts have cut estimates for those companies and many others. In so doing, they have cited corporations' lingering unwillingness to invest in big and complex software projects, such as those that fueled the industry's eye-popping growth of recent years.
Analysts, on average, now predict that Siebel will see its total quarterly revenue drop 20 percent from a year ago. They see an 11 percent decline at PeopleSoft, according to Wall Street tracking firm Thomson First Call.
DIM CHANCE OF RECOVERY IN 2002
"The U.S. is nothing to write home about, but it's not getting much worse," JMP Securities software analyst Patrick Walravens said, referring to big-company spending patterns.
"Europe is probably worse than two months ago," he added.
Goldman Sachs analyst Tom Berquist said Europe was the likely culprit behind the SAP miss.
"My sense is that it's probably more European weakness because they've been stronger in Europe over the past couple of quarters," Berquist said.
Combine that new regional softness with the continent's penchant for shuttering businesses in the summer months, and "the chance of selling much software in July and August is approaching zero," Walravens said.
Based on his own interviews with corporate executives, Walravens said he expects corporate technology spending to be flat in the second half of 2002, compared with the first. Then he sees an uptick in 2003.
He warned, however, that it will be nothing like the Internet boom years, when it wasn't unusual for upstart software companies to post quarter-after-quarter of 100 percent revenue growth.
"Those days aren't coming back. The days of Siemens paying $100 million to i2 for supply-chain software are over," Walravens said.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=580&e=2&cid=580&u=/nm/20020714/bs_n...
John Murphy's Industry PerfChart
Sector chart that I should look at more often. I like how the slider takes you back in time. Also, holding the mouse pointer on a line, will separate it from the rest. I'm surprised oil is beating gold.
http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/performance/Industry1.html
It's also cool to put your own tickers in the bottom boxes. I like playing with this thing LOL.
Fletch
http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/performance/Industry1.html
I guess this one won't come out.
GE's Net Income Rises 14 Percent
Fri Jul 12, 6:34 AM ET
FAIRFIELD, Conn. (Reuters) - General Electric Co. on Friday said second-quarter earnings rose 14 percent on strong gas turbine sales, but reinsurance losses and a write-down on WorldCom bonds nicked the conglomerate's profits.
The maker of everything from jet engines to light bulbs to washing machines said it earned $4.4 billion, or 44 cents a diluted share, compared with $3.89 billion, or 39 cents a diluted share, in the year-ago quarter.
Analysts were looking for GE to earn 43 cents to 46 cents a share with a mean of 44 cents, according to research firm Thomson First Call.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=580&e=2&cid=580&u=/nm/20020712/bs_n...
http://www.cme.com/httpwrapper.cfm?wrap=/wrappedpages/delayed_intraday_quotes/10min_globex_flash_quo...
Dollar fell over night but coming back again now. At least it was at 6AM <g>.
Fletch
>
Nice Chart Lee!
Fletch
Dollar finding some support at 106? A higher $ bottom bounce would be bullish I would think.
Fletch
Dollar still falling and Gold going up.
Still checking.
We most likely had a local bottom.....Not THE bottom. I'll try and swing trade from here, listening to the Turnips.
Fletch
Actually Softechie,
I'm long from Friday and I'm happy the dollar is tanking. Maybe we fill the gap at 1380 and can build a solid foundation to rally from. My plan would be to dump some gold and add to VTSS. I'd rather we were weak early then have a gap and crap.
Fletch
Hi Matt,
<Charts add a nice touch to discussions don't they.>
Sure do. It's much better to see the chart in the post, then having to go to another window. I like this place.
and Thank you,
Fletch
Thanks,
I wanted to let them know the dollar is tanking hard. Good time to dump some gold.
Fletch
Dollar is falling like a rock.
Boy I hope this works.
Fletch
Cool.....it DID!
test...test
Just checking to see if this works and I'd like the gap to fill before lift off.
Fletch
[ chart ]bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=%24compx&time=7
In edit, it doesn't work LOL.
Hey,
I guess this isn't too bad. At least my popup killer isn't working overtime here. Allowed to post without paying....not bad.
How thick is the Canadian smoke your way Zeev? It left our area this morning but they say it's heading east....your way.
Fletch