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Hi Zeev,
Hope you have a refreshing holiday away from the market. May I say thanks for being Zeev! Looking at your profile, I'm surprised only 600+ follow you here. Leads me to believe the board is a very undiscovered market resource. I should send a link to several large fund managers just to hope to get them following. Wouldn't it be nice for you to post a lunch Q buy and then have several large funds chase after them LOL? Na, it could take the challenge away and I'd hate to see the scramble dump after you post the sell.<VBG>
BTW, you haven't mentioned TARO as a swing or trader play lately. Since I sold above 32 last week, it's pulled back for a good buy below 29 and is now at 30. I wish all my plays were as good as TARO has been to me.
Hoping all have a safe holiday,
Fletch
I'll keep that in mind....thanks. And now the buck is dropping. Why do I have to go and open my big mouth....uh post the chart.
Fletch
Well Zeev,
Is the rally party over? It seems like the fun had just begun LOL. I bought a bunch today including TARO, AKLM at 2.50 and GNSS below 8 (good call BTW...thanks). Now lets see if those Turnips are tuned up, as we are close to the 1308. Now, a small quick drop to 1296 and we're off to an end of month window dressing run......right???? Even the dollar says we go up now.
Thanks,
Fletch
Hey Zeev,
The market went up after all that call buying last week. Could be just buy the dip and the 1350 gap didn't even fall yet. Yet, is the key word. Do you have a target on PDII? I've had my eye on it since it tanked and it's forming a very nice bowl on a 10 day chart.
Much Thanks,
Fletch
PS It was my 54th. birthday today and I'm prying you love trading so much that another ten years (or MORE) of us following you are in the cards. Heres to our good health LOL! I wish all the board that BTW!
Zeev,
AGM seems to be moving up here. Any target for it or should I just hang on?
Thanks,
Fletch
Vesselin,
We do agree on one thing for sure and that is that trading will be the best way to make money in the market. I also like to try and use indicators to try and spot the trend changes. So far I'm better at the bottoms then the tops.
I'm not sure the baby boomers will all be pulling their money out all at once. I think it more depends on the market conditions at the time and the boomers won't be retiring all at once anyway. If the bear continues until then, they may not be able to ever afford retirement LOL.
BTW, the only reason I mentioned LTBH is to try and talk myself into holding some longer term. My nature would be to sell all at a perceived top. I'm just not as long term bearish as you are.
Good luck,
Fletch
Hi again Vesselin,
Thank you for your opinion. Boy, are you bearish on the future market! I guess one scenario is a long drawn out bear that ends years from now, flat lining with no one even caring. Another possibility is that we go to war with a mid east country soon and this actually helps pull us into a much better recovery. I tend to agree with Zeev's double dip but it's hard to tell just how bad the second dip will be. At any rate, I'm thinking my baby boom generation will pull the market up out of the bear sooner then the flat line possible ending. Yes, I'm an out of place bull trying to play the bear as best I can.
On RYVYX. My thoughts are first just how long before the NDX is again at 4000? Could it take 5 years, maybe 10 or 15? For sure the NDX will again be worth 4000 right? Now, lets say I bought 1000 shares at 8.40 or $8400.00 worth and sold half in a few months at lets say at 25, then my remaining 500 shares are essentially free and I still have some profits left over. Now that 500 shares, several years from now, can be worth $175000.00 with the NDX again at the 4000 level. Not a bad return I'd say.
The other thing I think about is just how low can RYVYX go. Even if the bear market low were NDX 700, RYVYX would not go to zero and may be around 7 per share then. If we hit NDX 700 I'm hoping I can add to that 500 shares to again have 1000. So I'm not real sure there is a lot of risk with the long fund down here. At your age, you may want to consider my above strategy.
I guess my dad was a Navy pilot but I don't remember the base he was stationed at. I did get to see some real good pictures he took while flying over volcanoes though.
Good luck,
Fletch
Hi Vesselin,
Glad your here on IHUB and sorry to hear of your trouble with StockCharts. I've followed your QQQ TA for a while now. As a matter of fact, I copied one of your post near last Christmas on the Motley Fool and it was very well recommended. (voted for you a lot BTW) I like using the VIX to show main market bottoms. This last market double bottom was a good one IMHO but Zeev thinks there will still be some rocky roads ahead. Usually September-October are weak anyway, at least historically.
What are your thoughts on buying RYVYX (Rydex double NDX long fund) around these levels? I was lucky in buying at the low at 8.40. At first I was thinking of trading it but after looking at long term charts RYVYX was at 350/share when the NDX was at 4000. Now I'm thinking of trading half but keeping some LTBH like. My thoughts are that this bottom was good enough to be the bottom for the year and depending on our recovery could possibly be THE bottom. People much smarter than I, think we will break this bottom, but not for a while. What are your thoughts on this?
Thanks,
Fletch
PS My father was stationed in the land of fire and ice for a year in the late 50's. We stayed state side but I would have loved to have lived there even as a kid LOL.
Hi Dale,
Yes, nice to see MAXF, one of my favorite value plays, doing well. I did just add to it under 5 in one account. The dollar isn't doing too bad, so far this morning.
Fletch
Hi Zeev,
I never take enough profits on up days but did sell SNDK, AAPL and some of that RYVYX. RYVYX is now up to near 12 from 8.70. I kept SKX hoping it didn't double top here at resistance just under 18.
Some of that money has eyes on a biotech or two after todays weakness in the sector. Morningstar likes that GENZ, as they have it rated a 5 star stock.
Fletch
Zeev,
I think I remember you saying GENZ could run to 25 in this rally. It's getting close here above 24.50. IYTO, would you take profits here or hold longer due to the bois strength?
Much thanks,
Fletch
Zeev,
TTIL did well with earnings this quarter. Should be a good swing trader I'd think. Your thoughts on them please.
Fletch
TTI Telecom Reports Continued Momentum in Business With Second Quarter Operating Income Up 42% On 32% Revenue Increase
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/020814/142028_1.html
Dollar isn't tanking too much since last night but still weak.
Fletch
Hey FSTW followers,
That gap filling drop that just happened was a scare huh? I looked and some lucky person bought a few shares low at 5.261 this morning. Now FSTW is back above 9. It's stuff like this that is killing the market for some. Being long during this bear just isn't much fun at times!
Fletch
Look, a dot just above 5 at the open.
Thanks for the input on those Zeev. Would you also put CAH in with MRK and JNJ? All of these are what I'd consider core plays but I did buy enough so that I can trade half.
Thanks again,
Fletch
Zeev,
So your saying that if 1263 doesn't hold, we then retest and possibly break the lows? All but the NDX put in a bullish higher low recently and I thought we had a quality bottom here. Are not the chances on the high side that we just had the local bottom, if not lows for the year?
Thanks,
Fletch
Dollar climbing back up over night. Did JPM cover some gold hedges?
Fletch
Dollar not doing so well and gold picking back up. Great for trading.
Fletch
Zeev,
VTSS still isn't too bad, just starting out from a little lower base.
http://screening.nasdaq.com/Heatmaps/Heatmap_100.asp
I guess my RYVYX buy was at the right time.
Fletch
Your almost there. Just leave out the - after the [ and before the c. The dollar going up just means gold will possibly be weak. The market can still keep dying.
Fletch
Zeev,
How long until the NDX sees it's old highs IYTO? I'm buying RYVYX here at $8.40. I can and will add more at 7.50 if we get there. The reason I'm asking is RYVYX was over $350. less then two years ago. Five to ten years for 8 to 350, not a bad possible return.
Thanks,
Fletch
Welcome ye ole biblical chart-reading TRat you.
Fletch
Well, it's Sunday night and time for a dollar chart or two. Maybe I'll add some gold and a futures link too.......LOL.
May the market launch....too LONG,
Fletch
http://www.cme.com/wrappedpages/delayed_intraday_quotes/10min_globex_flash_quote/gflash.html
Hank,
Why did I add to FSTW? Well, it impressed me that there were very few sellers considering the market weakness. Especially considering how thinly FSTW trades. The large gap could have filled and still may but I think we are through with the worst of the selling for now. On a run, FSTW could hit 15 and most likely will soon.
Fletch
PS I really like those chart E triangles pointing up LOL. LOOK at the OBV.............very NICE!
Hi incog,
A few of us have learned how to post charts-graphs. The best place to learn is on the test-test board. They give instructions in the header on how to do it. It may take a couple of trys. BTW, they don't show up in preview. Here is the link to IHUB's test board.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=107
Good luck,
Fletch
Max,
ORB is a great buy here. IMVHO, a possible triple or more by years end. They have new big contracts and positive earnings in the last two quarters. At 2.50 Friday they were a real buy but so are so many right now.
Good luck,
Fletch
PS You just may just be an old fox too LOL :)
Zeev,
Now you gone and perked my interest. What are your prices on SFD, IGT, PII, COO and CAH?
Thanks again
OB hunting,
Fletch
Thanks Zeev,
I have let a few get away from me. Looking them over, I'm doing very well on the health care, with MRK, CAH, and TARO all up nicely from my OB's. I forgot to mention JNJ, that one I added to twice, so I'm now even on it in my wife's ROTH IRA.
ESST, SNDK, FSTW, SSFT, GENZ, ARMHY, POOL, SKX and GNSS are up to some only around even. My down tickers are MAXF (up in one-down in another acct.), TTIL, SFD, VECO, AAPL, SOL and VTSS. That VTSS kind of hurts as I looked at it around 3.80 one day and thought....sell? but then didn't. Now, VTSS has been much weaker since earnings.
I will say that I'm much better off following you and your plays-picks, then not. Those that pick on your slight market misses usually don't have much of anything positive to say on anything anyway.
Very glad your here Zeev and still posting,
Fletch
Hey Max,
Thanks for the small caps chart.
One thing I notice is that they are below 400 now. The small guys have been trading mostly between 400-500 over the last few years. They don't seem stay below 400 for long now, do they?
Fletch
Zeev,
I'm nearly 100% long and waiting market lift off. I'm now considering buying ORB back again. I sold it a little early at around 7.50 and it was just trashed for credit ratings after good earnings. This tumble has killed a lot of small caps, so I'm leery on it though.
Most of the core stocks were bought a little too early with OB's and luckily I dumped all the gold plays long ago. I'm now holding AGM, POOL, SFD, SKX, MAXF, CAH, and MRK. Also, some not of the core longs include VTSS, SNDK, AAPL, GENZ, TARO, TTIL, VECO, and FSTW. Long SSFT, GNSS, ARMHY and ESST as well.
I agree with you that we are near a major market bottom and it's just that my patients is wearing a little thin is all.
Fletch
No Zeev, I guess when and IF all the sellers are finished selling, that would do it LOL. They (the sellers) just seem to have some extra stamina right now <ng>.
More news below.
Fletch
Stocks can't shake off the blues
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Escalating worries that the nascent economic recovery will be derailed rattled Wall Street, handing the Nasdaq its fifth straight weekly loss. But the Dow managed to squeak out a weekly gain thanks to a massive rally early in the week.
"It seems to be one thing after another [plaguing] this market. First it was worries about corporations lying to us and now we're getting all this bad news on the economy," remarked Standard & Poor's Sam Stovall.
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BF1C0E89B%2D4CF1%2D4AB1%2D8BE6%2D10A8BCF2439A%7D&am....
Below: The many reasons for a robust economic recovery and huge market rally...................................................................................
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Hi Zeev,
Glad you and yours are AOK and only communication trouble was keeping you from posting earlier this past week. This market is real weak and a little scary to be long in. It's seems almost as if it's going to just keep dropping forever. NOT fun, I may say!
IMHO, we need some good news to get this weakness-selling over with and if we don't get something positive soon, we can just keep slowly dropping. Other then all the sellers have sold, do you see a real positive catalyst any time soon?
Much thanks for your wisdom,
Fletch
PS The new IHUB server must be up and doing well.
<<Note: Investors Hub will be down for about an hour sometime today so I can put in the new webserver. I'll probably take it down about 11:30 or so.>>
I can post a dollar and a gold chart here every day. That can save opening up a couple of screens at least.
Fletch
Sure thing thedancer,
I'm at work now but I'll try to explain it. To post a chart, you want to right click on it. At the bottom of the box that opens is properties. Click on properties and copy the address or url without the HTTP://. Now you paste the link and add [ chart ] before it and [ /chart ] after it. Try your work out on the test board. Leave out the spaces on the [ chart ].
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=107
Fletch
Here is one of Bigcharts
remove Leave below
http:// chart.bigcharts.com/bc3/quickchart/chart.asp?symb=%24compx&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=6&maval=13&uf=7168&lf=268435456&lf2=1024&lf3=8&type=4&size=2&state=10&sid=3291&style=320&time=6&freq=1&nosettings=1&rand=6837&mocktick=1&rand=7113
Now add [ chart ] and [ /chart ] on either side and you get this.
This looks bullish for the market.
Gold is testing $300 now.
Fletch
Hi Max,
Nice VIX chart! Now get back in there and start trading again <VBG>.
Best Wishes,
Fletch
The vix sure looks like it marked a bottom last week. I've used it a few times now, to help bolster confidence levels, for buying low. It's not as good at marking tops though.
Fletch
Sunday night and the buck is up!
But gold is still falling lower.
Hi Zeev,
From your DJIA post, your saying that IYTO, we have seen the lows of the year for most of the 30 in the Dow? I would then think that the major indexes NDX, COMPX, SPX have bottomed for the year as well. I agree that the yearly bottom is most likely in but what does the rest of the year look like from here? Is a rally and Nebacle still in the picture ( http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=416100 ) or have we gone low enough to just start building a base-rally from here?
Thanks,
Fletch
I know these Yahoo charts aren't pretty but they do show what's important. Was this a local bottom? Sure looks like it could be to me.
Fletch
5 year VIX
Here, it looks like the bubble has been retraced BWDIK.
5 year NDX
A pretty chart with a WOW!....LOL.