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Kunstler: Independence Day
By James Howard Kunstler
July 1, 2022
The Party of Chaos is draping its narrow shoulders in black crepe this Fourth of July, putting on funereal airs, which is actually just another cynical act in their remorseless performance of pretending to care about our country, as everything they touch goes to shit, blood, and ruin. Anything not that, they would like you believe, is “right-wing extremism” and “domestic terrorism.” Such as reminding your fellow citizens that there’s an upside to the rule-of-law and free speech, two niceties of the constitution the Party of Chaos is working hard to dispose of.
Understand that this Party of Chaos is insane, and rejoice this holiday weekend that you are not them. Independence, after all, was not just throwing off the yoke of King George III, but of establishing conditions for a people to thrive and pursue happiness without nefarious interference by vicious authorities of a leviathan state. That was something worth fighting for in 1776 and worth fighting for now.
One such battle was decided this week in the US Supreme Court: West Virginia v EPA, about US government agencies under the executive branch usurping legislative and judicial prerogatives — in this case to enforce “Green New Deal” policies on the electric power industry by agency fiat, as if by law. No-can-do, the SCOTUS said in a 6-3 decision. The ruling will tend to quash the growing tyranny of the unelected federal bureaucracy issuing diktats that nobody has voted for, like the Department of Education’s increasingly insane use of the 1972 Title IX [nine] update of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 to jam biological male transsexuals into women’s sports and locker rooms.
Much of this agency mischief has emanated in recent years from whoever is in the White House issuing executive orders to get around a recalcitrant Congress. Barack Obama was especially prolific at it and now the junta behind “Joe Biden” is trying to emulate Mr. O. The upshot is that the Green New Deal is dead because even a Democratic majority Congress is too chicken to vote for measures likely to bring down the electric grid and put an end to mass motoring (though current trends suggest exactly that outcome is in the cards even without government action).
The ruling also tends to foil the World Economic Forum’s effort to re-set Western Civ as a transhuman technocratic “green” nirvana. Rather, the USA and Euroland are on the express track to a Palookaville of grubby, post-industrial, neo-medieval hardship. Try to imagine Mark Zuckerberg’s Metaverse minus reliable electric service. All you’re left with is an ill-dressed schmuck wearing goggles in a dark, empty room. Not to mention the technocrat elite’s wished-for boons of computer-enabled eternal life and never-ending orgasm. Fugettabowdit. Mr. Zuckerberg will be lucky months from now if he can avoid being clamped to a stake and torched by the angered new peasantry he helped to create.
War is not the glorious romp it used to be, either, in the days of caparisoned hussars and grenadiers in colorful enfilade. Now it’s more like being a swarm of gnats in a bug-zapper: pfffftttt… and you’re just one of ten thousand fellow gnats parlayed into the plane of ignominious nonexistence, sans accolades and salutes. Thus, our supremely stupid campaign against Russia in Ukraine, which is so not going well that it is hard to find a comparable strategic fiasco in history.
Of course, strategic fiascos are “Joe Biden’s” specialty. Even his former running mate, Mr. O, acknowledged that “you can’t underestimate [“JB’s”] ability to fuck things up.” The alleged current president wanted desperately to bog down his nemesis, Vlad Putin, in the Ukrainian buzzard flats, hoping that Russia would roll over and die. But, lo and behold, it’s not working, not even with that $50-billion “JB” supposedly wired to Kiev. Instead, it’s America and our NATO allies who are circling the drain. Remember all those humming factories we won the Second World War with? They don’t exist anymore. Try prosecuting an industrial war without any industry. Decreasingly, too, our oil production, thanks explicitly to “Joe Biden’s” policies. Next, he’ll beg Mr. Putin for a discount on Russian oil while threatening to punch him in the face. I hope you’re prepared to lose this one as badly as we lost Afghanistan.
Life for us will get simpler, for sure, but it doesn’t have to be a trip back to the eleventh century. Mere months remain before the Party of Chaos has its near-death experience at the polls and we can begin to contemplate a change of course that allows us to remain a civilized nation of law and liberty, despite all the damage done. I’m celebrating this Fourth of July by mindfully declaring the independence of the country I love from the regime of grifters, tyrants, and sadists temporarily occupying the power centers of Washington, DC. I hope you will join me and do likewise.
https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/independence-day/
9:45a PMI Manufacturing Index
Index 52.7 actual vs 57 prior
Definition
Based on monthly questionnaire surveys of selected companies, the Purchasing Managers' Manufacturing Index (PMI) offers an advance indication on month-to-month activity in the private sector economy by tracking changes in variables such as production, new orders, stock levels, employment and prices across manufacturing industries. The final index for the current month is released roughly a week after the flash.
10:00a ISM Manufacturing Index
Index 53.0 actual vs 56.1 prior
Consensus Outlook
The ISM manufacturing index has settled in the mid-to-high 50s range, at 56.1 in May and 55.4 and 57.1 in the two prior months. June's consensus is 55.0.
Definition
The manufacturing composite index from the Institute for Supply Management is a diffusion index calculated from five of the eleven sub-components of a monthly survey of purchasing managers at roughly 300 manufacturing firms nationwide. The survey queries purchasing managers about the general direction of production, new orders, order backlogs, their own inventories, customer inventories, employment, supplier deliveries, exports, imports, and prices. The five components of the composite index are new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories (their own, not customer inventories). The five components are equally weighted. The questions are qualitative rather than quantitative; that is, they ask about the general direction rather than the specific level of activity. Each question is adjusted into a diffusion index which is calculated by adding the percentage of positive responses to one-half of the unchanged responses.
10:00a Construction Spending
Month over Month -0.1% actual vs 0.8% (rev) prior
Year over Year 9.7% actual vs 12.3% prior
Consensus Outlook
Construction spending is expected to rise 0.5 percent in May following April's lower-than-expected 0.2 percent. Residential spending in this report has continued to expand in contrast to nonresidential spending which has fallen into contraction.
Definition
The dollar value of new construction activity on residential, non-residential, and public projects. Data are available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars.
9:45a PMI Manufacturing Index
Index 52.7 actual vs 57 prior
Definition
Based on monthly questionnaire surveys of selected companies, the Purchasing Managers' Manufacturing Index (PMI) offers an advance indication on month-to-month activity in the private sector economy by tracking changes in variables such as production, new orders, stock levels, employment and prices across manufacturing industries. The final index for the current month is released roughly a week after the flash.
10:00a ISM Manufacturing Index
Index 53.0 actual vs 56.1 prior
Consensus Outlook
The ISM manufacturing index has settled in the mid-to-high 50s range, at 56.1 in May and 55.4 and 57.1 in the two prior months. June's consensus is 55.0.
Definition
The manufacturing composite index from the Institute for Supply Management is a diffusion index calculated from five of the eleven sub-components of a monthly survey of purchasing managers at roughly 300 manufacturing firms nationwide. The survey queries purchasing managers about the general direction of production, new orders, order backlogs, their own inventories, customer inventories, employment, supplier deliveries, exports, imports, and prices. The five components of the composite index are new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories (their own, not customer inventories). The five components are equally weighted. The questions are qualitative rather than quantitative; that is, they ask about the general direction rather than the specific level of activity. Each question is adjusted into a diffusion index which is calculated by adding the percentage of positive responses to one-half of the unchanged responses.
10:00a Construction Spending
Month over Month -0.1% actual vs 0.8% (rev) prior
Year over Year 9.7% actual vs 12.3% prior
Consensus Outlook
Construction spending is expected to rise 0.5 percent in May following April's lower-than-expected 0.2 percent. Residential spending in this report has continued to expand in contrast to nonresidential spending which has fallen into contraction.
Definition
The dollar value of new construction activity on residential, non-residential, and public projects. Data are available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars.
Paul Craig Roberts: Russia’s Ukraine Miscalculation
By Paul Craig Roberts
June 30, 2022
Russia’s Ukraine miscalculation dates to 2014 when the Kremlin refused the request of the Donbass Russians in Eastern Ukraine to be reunited with Russia. Historically part of Russia, the Donbass region was attached to the Ukrainian province of the Soviet Union by Soviet leaders as was Crimea. These Russian populated territories, historically part of Russia, rejected the anti-Russian rule installed in Kiev when Washington overthrew the Ukrainian government and installed a puppet regime. Had the Kremlin accepted the request of the Donbass Russians, there would have been no necessity for a Russian intervention in Donbass.
Ukraine sent forces to subdue the two declared republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. The Ukrainian military and Nazi militias were unequal to the task of subduing the hastily raised militias of the two republics, but did succeed in occupying some of the Donbass territory from which they shelled the civilian populations of the Donbass for 8 years.
The Kremlin attempted to stop the conflict with the Minsk agreement. Ukraine and the republics signed it, and Europe was supposed to enforce it, but Ukraine did not keep the agreement, and Europe did not enforce it. Indeed, Washington encouraged Ukraine to ignore it as Washington saw the opportunity to initiate a conflict that could be used to demonize and isolate Russia.
Internally in Russia, Russians objected to the killing of Russians by Ukrainians. Pressure mounted on the Kremlin to cease appeasing the West by accepting Russian civilian casualties. In February of this year, the Kremlin finally gave up on the 8-year old death of the Minsk Agreement and recognized the two republics.
If the West had not intended a conflict, Russian recognition would have stopped the shelling, and ended the conflict. Instead a 150,000 Ukrainian army and Nazi militias, trained and equipped by Washington and the UK, were sent to invade and reconquer the Donbass Russians. For the Kremlin, this would have been a political disaster. Washington, of course, knew this and was banking on yet another Russian toleration of an enormous provocation, that having been the Kremlin’s record of response to Washington’s provocations: accept, forgive, and put faith in negotiations.
However, the Kremlin realized that it could not politically survive the slaughter of the Donbass Russians.
The Kremlin designated its military intervention in Ukraine as a limited operation to prevent Ukraine from invading Donbass and to drive out the Ukrainian forces that occupied part of Donbass and were shelling civilian populations. Donbass, not Ukraine was the target.
Western politicians and whore media pretends that Russia invaded Ukraine, not merely intervened in Donbass, and attacked Kiev but was defeated. This is an obvious lie. The Russians left Kiev alone. They put troops around the city to prevent reinforcements from being sent to Donbass. Once they had Ukraine’s forces in Donbass surrounded, such that reinforcements could not reach them in any meaningful numbers, they withdrew from the Kiev area.
The Western politicians and the whore Western media have lied when they say Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia did not invade Ukraine, and this was their blunder. The Russians intervened in Eastern Ukraine, in Donbass, to prevent a Ukrainian invasion for the reconquest of the two Donbass republics.
What the facts reveal is not Russian aggression, but Western aggression. The Minsk Agreement that Russia sponsored would have ended the conflict by keeping the Donbass as part of Ukraine, but giving Donbass some autonomy, such as its own police force, to minimize Donbass’ oppression under the anti-Russian regime installed by Washington. The agreement was unenforceable because Washington wanted conflict.
The war that is coming upon us is a consequence of Washington’s insistence on hegemony and the Kremlin’s inability to comprehend the situation and to understand how the Kremlin’s endless toleration of insults and provocations encourages the West to push harder and ever harder until Russia is cornered and finally has to fight.
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2022/06/30/russias-ukraine-miscalculation/
Paul Craig Roberts: Russia’s Ukraine Miscalculation
By Paul Craig Roberts
June 30, 2022
Russia’s Ukraine miscalculation dates to 2014 when the Kremlin refused the request of the Donbass Russians in Eastern Ukraine to be reunited with Russia. Historically part of Russia, the Donbass region was attached to the Ukrainian province of the Soviet Union by Soviet leaders as was Crimea. These Russian populated territories, historically part of Russia, rejected the anti-Russian rule installed in Kiev when Washington overthrew the Ukrainian government and installed a puppet regime. Had the Kremlin accepted the request of the Donbass Russians, there would have been no necessity for a Russian intervention in Donbass.
Ukraine sent forces to subdue the two declared republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. The Ukrainian military and Nazi militias were unequal to the task of subduing the hastily raised militias of the two republics, but did succeed in occupying some of the Donbass territory from which they shelled the civilian populations of the Donbass for 8 years.
The Kremlin attempted to stop the conflict with the Minsk agreement. Ukraine and the republics signed it, and Europe was supposed to enforce it, but Ukraine did not keep the agreement, and Europe did not enforce it. Indeed, Washington encouraged Ukraine to ignore it as Washington saw the opportunity to initiate a conflict that could be used to demonize and isolate Russia.
Internally in Russia, Russians objected to the killing of Russians by Ukrainians. Pressure mounted on the Kremlin to cease appeasing the West by accepting Russian civilian casualties. In February of this year, the Kremlin finally gave up on the 8-year old death of the Minsk Agreement and recognized the two republics.
If the West had not intended a conflict, Russian recognition would have stopped the shelling, and ended the conflict. Instead a 150,000 Ukrainian army and Nazi militias, trained and equipped by Washington and the UK, were sent to invade and reconquer the Donbass Russians. For the Kremlin, this would have been a political disaster. Washington, of course, knew this and was banking on yet another Russian toleration of an enormous provocation, that having been the Kremlin’s record of response to Washington’s provocations: accept, forgive, and put faith in negotiations.
However, the Kremlin realized that it could not politically survive the slaughter of the Donbass Russians.
The Kremlin designated its military intervention in Ukraine as a limited operation to prevent Ukraine from invading Donbass and to drive out the Ukrainian forces that occupied part of Donbass and were shelling civilian populations. Donbass, not Ukraine was the target.
Western politicians and whore media pretends that Russia invaded Ukraine, not merely intervened in Donbass, and attacked Kiev but was defeated. This is an obvious lie. The Russians left Kiev alone. They put troops around the city to prevent reinforcements from being sent to Donbass. Once they had Ukraine’s forces in Donbass surrounded, such that reinforcements could not reach them in any meaningful numbers, they withdrew from the Kiev area.
The Western politicians and the whore Western media have lied when they say Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia did not invade Ukraine, and this was their blunder. The Russians intervened in Eastern Ukraine, in Donbass, to prevent a Ukrainian invasion for the reconquest of the two Donbass republics.
What the facts reveal is not Russian aggression, but Western aggression. The Minsk Agreement that Russia sponsored would have ended the conflict by keeping the Donbass as part of Ukraine, but giving Donbass some autonomy, such as its own police force, to minimize Donbass’ oppression under the anti-Russian regime installed by Washington. The agreement was unenforceable because Washington wanted conflict.
The war that is coming upon us is a consequence of Washington’s insistence on hegemony and the Kremlin’s inability to comprehend the situation and to understand how the Kremlin’s endless toleration of insults and provocations encourages the West to push harder and ever harder until Russia is cornered and finally has to fight.
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2022/06/30/russias-ukraine-miscalculation/
700 Million Worldwide Will Die from CV19 Vax by 2028 – Dr. David Martin
By Greg Hunter
On June 28, 2022
Dr. David Martin has a deep medical science and investment resume. Dr Martin also runs a company (M·CAM International) that finances cutting edge innovation worldwide. He is also one of the key people seeking justice in lawsuits suing medical companies and the federal government involved in delivering the so-called vaccines for CV19. In simple terms, according to Dr. Martin, the CV19 vaccines are “bioweapons.” Big Pharma and the government knew it and also knew it would cause massive deaths and permanent injuries. Dr. Martin says, “It’s going to get much worse. . . . It is not a Corona virus vaccine. It is a spike protein instruction to make the human body produce a toxin. . . . The fact of the matter is the injections are an act of bioweapons and bioterrorism. They are not a public health measure. The facts are very simple. This was premeditated. . . . This was a campaign of domestic terror to get the public to accept the universal vaccine platform using a known biological weapon. That is their own words and not my interpretation.”
How many will die from the CV19 bioweapons? Dr. Martin says, “By their own estimate, they are looking for 700 million people globally, and that would put the U.S. participation in that of the injected population as 75 million to 100 million people. . . . There are a lot of reasons why they hope it will be between now and 2028 because there is this tiny little glitch of the illiquidity of the Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid programs. So, the fewer recipients of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, the better. Not surprisingly, the recommendation was people over the age of 65 were the first ones to get injected.”
Dr. Martin thinks the catastrophic effects of the CV19 injections will hit the medical industry soon. Dr. Martin explains, “The dirty secret is . . . there are a lot of pilots having micro vascular and clotting problems, and that keeps them out of the cockpit, which is a good place to not have them if they are going to throw a clot for a stroke or a heart attack. The problem is we are going to see that exact same phenomenon in the healthcare industry and at a much larger scale. So, we now have, along with the actual problem . . . of people getting sick and people dying, we actually have that targeting the healthcare industry writ large. Which means we are going to have nurses and doctors who are going to be among the sick and dead. That also means the sick and the dying are also not going to get care.”
Dr. Martin and his group are suing everybody from President Biden along with the FDA, CDC, Pfizer, Moderna and many others over the deaths and injuries from the CV19 bioweapons fraudulently passed off as “vaccines.” The next big court case is July 6, 2022, in federal court in Utah. Dr. Martin contends “this is far worse” than the Nuremberg trials of Nazis after WWII and adds, “This is organized crime. . . . They have hidden behind the immunity shield that absolves them of product liability by naming the delivery of a bioweapon–a vaccination program. . . . This is actually a criminal act. This is an act of domestic terror, and it is an anti-trust violation. This is racketeering. This is old school racketeering, and it is no different than the mob in the 1920’s. This is old school racketeering for personal gain and profit at the expense of human lives. You need to call it what it is, and it’s organized crime. I would say the Nazis were better than the people who are doing this. . . . The real question is why did American citizens develop a weapon to kill Americans and get paid to do it? That is a morally outrageous question, and, unfortunately, almost no one is asking it.”
There is much more in the 1-hour and 3-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com on Rumble as he interviews Dr. David Martin, the top expert in the ongoing and unfolding CV19 vax genocide and litigation for 6.21.22.
https://rumble.com/v1acoaa-up-to-100-million-will-die-from-cv19-vax-by-2028-dr-david-martin.html
After the Interview:
You can follow the CV19 vax cases at ProsecuteNow.io
You can follow Dr. Martin on DavidMartin.world or FullyLiveAcademy.com.
If you would like to make a donation to fund the court cases against Big Pharma and the federal government over CV19 bioweapons, click here.
https://usawatchdog.com/up-to-700-million-worldwide-will-die-from-cv19-vax-by-2028-dr-david-martin/
700 Million Worldwide Will Die from CV19 Vax by 2028 – Dr. David Martin
By Greg Hunter
On June 28, 2022
Dr. David Martin has a deep medical science and investment resume. Dr Martin also runs a company (M·CAM International) that finances cutting edge innovation worldwide. He is also one of the key people seeking justice in lawsuits suing medical companies and the federal government involved in delivering the so-called vaccines for CV19. In simple terms, according to Dr. Martin, the CV19 vaccines are “bioweapons.” Big Pharma and the government knew it and also knew it would cause massive deaths and permanent injuries. Dr. Martin says, “It’s going to get much worse. . . . It is not a Corona virus vaccine. It is a spike protein instruction to make the human body produce a toxin. . . . The fact of the matter is the injections are an act of bioweapons and bioterrorism. They are not a public health measure. The facts are very simple. This was premeditated. . . . This was a campaign of domestic terror to get the public to accept the universal vaccine platform using a known biological weapon. That is their own words and not my interpretation.”
How many will die from the CV19 bioweapons? Dr. Martin says, “By their own estimate, they are looking for 700 million people globally, and that would put the U.S. participation in that of the injected population as 75 million to 100 million people. . . . There are a lot of reasons why they hope it will be between now and 2028 because there is this tiny little glitch of the illiquidity of the Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid programs. So, the fewer recipients of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, the better. Not surprisingly, the recommendation was people over the age of 65 were the first ones to get injected.”
Dr. Martin thinks the catastrophic effects of the CV19 injections will hit the medical industry soon. Dr. Martin explains, “The dirty secret is . . . there are a lot of pilots having micro vascular and clotting problems, and that keeps them out of the cockpit, which is a good place to not have them if they are going to throw a clot for a stroke or a heart attack. The problem is we are going to see that exact same phenomenon in the healthcare industry and at a much larger scale. So, we now have, along with the actual problem . . . of people getting sick and people dying, we actually have that targeting the healthcare industry writ large. Which means we are going to have nurses and doctors who are going to be among the sick and dead. That also means the sick and the dying are also not going to get care.”
Dr. Martin and his group are suing everybody from President Biden along with the FDA, CDC, Pfizer, Moderna and many others over the deaths and injuries from the CV19 bioweapons fraudulently passed off as “vaccines.” The next big court case is July 6, 2022, in federal court in Utah. Dr. Martin contends “this is far worse” than the Nuremberg trials of Nazis after WWII and adds, “This is organized crime. . . . They have hidden behind the immunity shield that absolves them of product liability by naming the delivery of a bioweapon–a vaccination program. . . . This is actually a criminal act. This is an act of domestic terror, and it is an anti-trust violation. This is racketeering. This is old school racketeering, and it is no different than the mob in the 1920’s. This is old school racketeering for personal gain and profit at the expense of human lives. You need to call it what it is, and it’s organized crime. I would say the Nazis were better than the people who are doing this. . . . The real question is why did American citizens develop a weapon to kill Americans and get paid to do it? That is a morally outrageous question, and, unfortunately, almost no one is asking it.”
There is much more in the 1-hour and 3-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com on Rumble as he interviews Dr. David Martin, the top expert in the ongoing and unfolding CV19 vax genocide and litigation for 6.21.22.
https://rumble.com/v1acoaa-up-to-100-million-will-die-from-cv19-vax-by-2028-dr-david-martin.html
After the Interview:
You can follow the CV19 vax cases at ProsecuteNow.io
You can follow Dr. Martin on DavidMartin.world or FullyLiveAcademy.com.
If you would like to make a donation to fund the court cases against Big Pharma and the federal government over CV19 bioweapons, click here.
https://usawatchdog.com/up-to-700-million-worldwide-will-die-from-cv19-vax-by-2028-dr-david-martin/
Today's Economic Calendar
9:45 PMI Manufacturing Index
10:00 ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00 Construction Spending
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan -1.7%. Hong Kong closed. China -0.3%. India -0.2%.
In Europe, at midday, London flat. Paris +0.2%. Frankfurt +0.1%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.2%. S&P -0.2%. Nasdaq -0.3%. Crude +2.2% to $108.06. Gold -0.9% to $1791.70. Bitcoin +0.3% to $19,120.
Ten-year Treasury Yield unchanged at 2.97%
A very small species of mite
Has sex on your face every night -
The parasites cling on
To hairs that they swing on
In scenes of erotic delight.
https://t.co/zYsWBi40MI
-Mick Twister
Today's Economic Calendar
9:45 PMI Manufacturing Index
10:00 ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00 Construction Spending
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan -1.7%. Hong Kong closed. China -0.3%. India -0.2%.
In Europe, at midday, London flat. Paris +0.2%. Frankfurt +0.1%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.2%. S&P -0.2%. Nasdaq -0.3%. Crude +2.2% to $108.06. Gold -0.9% to $1791.70. Bitcoin +0.3% to $19,120.
Ten-year Treasury Yield unchanged at 2.97%
A very small species of mite
Has sex on your face every night -
The parasites cling on
To hairs that they swing on
In scenes of erotic delight.
https://t.co/zYsWBi40MI
-Mick Twister
Paul Craig Roberts: Russia’s Ukraine Miscalculation
By Paul Craig Roberts
June 30, 2022
Russia’s Ukraine miscalculation dates to 2014 when the Kremlin refused the request of the Donbass Russians in Eastern Ukraine to be reunited with Russia. Historically part of Russia, the Donbass region was attached to the Ukrainian province of the Soviet Union by Soviet leaders as was Crimea. These Russian populated territories, historically part of Russia, rejected the anti-Russian rule installed in Kiev when Washington overthrew the Ukrainian government and installed a puppet regime. Had the Kremlin accepted the request of the Donbass Russians, there would have been no necessity for a Russian intervention in Donbass.
Ukraine sent forces to subdue the two declared republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. The Ukrainian military and Nazi militias were unequal to the task of subduing the hastily raised militias of the two republics, but did succeed in occupying some of the Donbass territory from which they shelled the civilian populations of the Donbass for 8 years.
The Kremlin attempted to stop the conflict with the Minsk agreement. Ukraine and the republics signed it, and Europe was supposed to enforce it, but Ukraine did not keep the agreement, and Europe did not enforce it. Indeed, Washington encouraged Ukraine to ignore it as Washington saw the opportunity to initiate a conflict that could be used to demonize and isolate Russia.
Internally in Russia, Russians objected to the killing of Russians by Ukrainians. Pressure mounted on the Kremlin to cease appeasing the West by accepting Russian civilian casualties. In February of this year, the Kremlin finally gave up on the 8-year old death of the Minsk Agreement and recognized the two republics.
If the West had not intended a conflict, Russian recognition would have stopped the shelling, and ended the conflict. Instead a 150,000 Ukrainian army and Nazi militias, trained and equipped by Washington and the UK, were sent to invade and reconquer the Donbass Russians. For the Kremlin, this would have been a political disaster. Washington, of course, knew this and was banking on yet another Russian toleration of an enormous provocation, that having been the Kremlin’s record of response to Washington’s provocations: accept, forgive, and put faith in negotiations.
However, the Kremlin realized that it could not politically survive the slaughter of the Donbass Russians.
The Kremlin designated its military intervention in Ukraine as a limited operation to prevent Ukraine from invading Donbass and to drive out the Ukrainian forces that occupied part of Donbass and were shelling civilian populations. Donbass, not Ukraine was the target.
Western politicians and whore media pretends that Russia invaded Ukraine, not merely intervened in Donbass, and attacked Kiev but was defeated. This is an obvious lie. The Russians left Kiev alone. They put troops around the city to prevent reinforcements from being sent to Donbass. Once they had Ukraine’s forces in Donbass surrounded, such that reinforcements could not reach them in any meaningful numbers, they withdrew from the Kiev area.
The Western politicians and the whore Western media have lied when they say Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia did not invade Ukraine, and this was their blunder. The Russians intervened in Eastern Ukraine, in Donbass, to prevent a Ukrainian invasion for the reconquest of the two Donbass republics.
What the facts reveal is not Russian aggression, but Western aggression. The Minsk Agreement that Russia sponsored would have ended the conflict by keeping the Donbass as part of Ukraine, but giving Donbass some autonomy, such as its own police force, to minimize Donbass’ oppression under the anti-Russian regime installed by Washington. The agreement was unenforceable because Washington wanted conflict.
The war that is coming upon us is a consequence of Washington’s insistence on hegemony and the Kremlin’s inability to comprehend the situation and to understand how the Kremlin’s endless toleration of insults and provocations encourages the West to push harder and ever harder until Russia is cornered and finally has to fight.
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2022/06/30/russias-ukraine-miscalculation/
Paul Craig Roberts: Russia’s Ukraine Miscalculation
By Paul Craig Roberts
June 30, 2022
Russia’s Ukraine miscalculation dates to 2014 when the Kremlin refused the request of the Donbass Russians in Eastern Ukraine to be reunited with Russia. Historically part of Russia, the Donbass region was attached to the Ukrainian province of the Soviet Union by Soviet leaders as was Crimea. These Russian populated territories, historically part of Russia, rejected the anti-Russian rule installed in Kiev when Washington overthrew the Ukrainian government and installed a puppet regime. Had the Kremlin accepted the request of the Donbass Russians, there would have been no necessity for a Russian intervention in Donbass.
Ukraine sent forces to subdue the two declared republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. The Ukrainian military and Nazi militias were unequal to the task of subduing the hastily raised militias of the two republics, but did succeed in occupying some of the Donbass territory from which they shelled the civilian populations of the Donbass for 8 years.
The Kremlin attempted to stop the conflict with the Minsk agreement. Ukraine and the republics signed it, and Europe was supposed to enforce it, but Ukraine did not keep the agreement, and Europe did not enforce it. Indeed, Washington encouraged Ukraine to ignore it as Washington saw the opportunity to initiate a conflict that could be used to demonize and isolate Russia.
Internally in Russia, Russians objected to the killing of Russians by Ukrainians. Pressure mounted on the Kremlin to cease appeasing the West by accepting Russian civilian casualties. In February of this year, the Kremlin finally gave up on the 8-year old death of the Minsk Agreement and recognized the two republics.
If the West had not intended a conflict, Russian recognition would have stopped the shelling, and ended the conflict. Instead a 150,000 Ukrainian army and Nazi militias, trained and equipped by Washington and the UK, were sent to invade and reconquer the Donbass Russians. For the Kremlin, this would have been a political disaster. Washington, of course, knew this and was banking on yet another Russian toleration of an enormous provocation, that having been the Kremlin’s record of response to Washington’s provocations: accept, forgive, and put faith in negotiations.
However, the Kremlin realized that it could not politically survive the slaughter of the Donbass Russians.
The Kremlin designated its military intervention in Ukraine as a limited operation to prevent Ukraine from invading Donbass and to drive out the Ukrainian forces that occupied part of Donbass and were shelling civilian populations. Donbass, not Ukraine was the target.
Western politicians and whore media pretends that Russia invaded Ukraine, not merely intervened in Donbass, and attacked Kiev but was defeated. This is an obvious lie. The Russians left Kiev alone. They put troops around the city to prevent reinforcements from being sent to Donbass. Once they had Ukraine’s forces in Donbass surrounded, such that reinforcements could not reach them in any meaningful numbers, they withdrew from the Kiev area.
The Western politicians and the whore Western media have lied when they say Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia did not invade Ukraine, and this was their blunder. The Russians intervened in Eastern Ukraine, in Donbass, to prevent a Ukrainian invasion for the reconquest of the two Donbass republics.
What the facts reveal is not Russian aggression, but Western aggression. The Minsk Agreement that Russia sponsored would have ended the conflict by keeping the Donbass as part of Ukraine, but giving Donbass some autonomy, such as its own police force, to minimize Donbass’ oppression under the anti-Russian regime installed by Washington. The agreement was unenforceable because Washington wanted conflict.
The war that is coming upon us is a consequence of Washington’s insistence on hegemony and the Kremlin’s inability to comprehend the situation and to understand how the Kremlin’s endless toleration of insults and provocations encourages the West to push harder and ever harder until Russia is cornered and finally has to fight.
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2022/06/30/russias-ukraine-miscalculation/
700 Million Worldwide Will Die from CV19 Vax by 2028 – Dr. David Martin
By Greg Hunter
On June 28, 2022
Dr. David Martin has a deep medical science and investment resume. Dr Martin also runs a company (M·CAM International) that finances cutting edge innovation worldwide. He is also one of the key people seeking justice in lawsuits suing medical companies and the federal government involved in delivering the so-called vaccines for CV19. In simple terms, according to Dr. Martin, the CV19 vaccines are “bioweapons.” Big Pharma and the government knew it and also knew it would cause massive deaths and permanent injuries. Dr. Martin says, “It’s going to get much worse. . . . It is not a Corona virus vaccine. It is a spike protein instruction to make the human body produce a toxin. . . . The fact of the matter is the injections are an act of bioweapons and bioterrorism. They are not a public health measure. The facts are very simple. This was premeditated. . . . This was a campaign of domestic terror to get the public to accept the universal vaccine platform using a known biological weapon. That is their own words and not my interpretation.”
How many will die from the CV19 bioweapons? Dr. Martin says, “By their own estimate, they are looking for 700 million people globally, and that would put the U.S. participation in that of the injected population as 75 million to 100 million people. . . . There are a lot of reasons why they hope it will be between now and 2028 because there is this tiny little glitch of the illiquidity of the Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid programs. So, the fewer recipients of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, the better. Not surprisingly, the recommendation was people over the age of 65 were the first ones to get injected.”
Dr. Martin thinks the catastrophic effects of the CV19 injections will hit the medical industry soon. Dr. Martin explains, “The dirty secret is . . . there are a lot of pilots having micro vascular and clotting problems, and that keeps them out of the cockpit, which is a good place to not have them if they are going to throw a clot for a stroke or a heart attack. The problem is we are going to see that exact same phenomenon in the healthcare industry and at a much larger scale. So, we now have, along with the actual problem . . . of people getting sick and people dying, we actually have that targeting the healthcare industry writ large. Which means we are going to have nurses and doctors who are going to be among the sick and dead. That also means the sick and the dying are also not going to get care.”
Dr. Martin and his group are suing everybody from President Biden along with the FDA, CDC, Pfizer, Moderna and many others over the deaths and injuries from the CV19 bioweapons fraudulently passed off as “vaccines.” The next big court case is July 6, 2022, in federal court in Utah. Dr. Martin contends “this is far worse” than the Nuremberg trials of Nazis after WWII and adds, “This is organized crime. . . . They have hidden behind the immunity shield that absolves them of product liability by naming the delivery of a bioweapon–a vaccination program. . . . This is actually a criminal act. This is an act of domestic terror, and it is an anti-trust violation. This is racketeering. This is old school racketeering, and it is no different than the mob in the 1920’s. This is old school racketeering for personal gain and profit at the expense of human lives. You need to call it what it is, and it’s organized crime. I would say the Nazis were better than the people who are doing this. . . . The real question is why did American citizens develop a weapon to kill Americans and get paid to do it? That is a morally outrageous question, and, unfortunately, almost no one is asking it.”
There is much more in the 1-hour and 3-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com on Rumble as he interviews Dr. David Martin, the top expert in the ongoing and unfolding CV19 vax genocide and litigation for 6.21.22.
https://rumble.com/v1acoaa-up-to-100-million-will-die-from-cv19-vax-by-2028-dr-david-martin.html
After the Interview:
You can follow the CV19 vax cases at ProsecuteNow.io
You can follow Dr. Martin on DavidMartin.world or FullyLiveAcademy.com.
If you would like to make a donation to fund the court cases against Big Pharma and the federal government over CV19 bioweapons, click here.
https://usawatchdog.com/up-to-700-million-worldwide-will-die-from-cv19-vax-by-2028-dr-david-martin/
700 Million Worldwide Will Die from CV19 Vax by 2028 – Dr. David Martin
By Greg Hunter
On June 28, 2022
Dr. David Martin has a deep medical science and investment resume. Dr Martin also runs a company (M·CAM International) that finances cutting edge innovation worldwide. He is also one of the key people seeking justice in lawsuits suing medical companies and the federal government involved in delivering the so-called vaccines for CV19. In simple terms, according to Dr. Martin, the CV19 vaccines are “bioweapons.” Big Pharma and the government knew it and also knew it would cause massive deaths and permanent injuries. Dr. Martin says, “It’s going to get much worse. . . . It is not a Corona virus vaccine. It is a spike protein instruction to make the human body produce a toxin. . . . The fact of the matter is the injections are an act of bioweapons and bioterrorism. They are not a public health measure. The facts are very simple. This was premeditated. . . . This was a campaign of domestic terror to get the public to accept the universal vaccine platform using a known biological weapon. That is their own words and not my interpretation.”
How many will die from the CV19 bioweapons? Dr. Martin says, “By their own estimate, they are looking for 700 million people globally, and that would put the U.S. participation in that of the injected population as 75 million to 100 million people. . . . There are a lot of reasons why they hope it will be between now and 2028 because there is this tiny little glitch of the illiquidity of the Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid programs. So, the fewer recipients of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, the better. Not surprisingly, the recommendation was people over the age of 65 were the first ones to get injected.”
Dr. Martin thinks the catastrophic effects of the CV19 injections will hit the medical industry soon. Dr. Martin explains, “The dirty secret is . . . there are a lot of pilots having micro vascular and clotting problems, and that keeps them out of the cockpit, which is a good place to not have them if they are going to throw a clot for a stroke or a heart attack. The problem is we are going to see that exact same phenomenon in the healthcare industry and at a much larger scale. So, we now have, along with the actual problem . . . of people getting sick and people dying, we actually have that targeting the healthcare industry writ large. Which means we are going to have nurses and doctors who are going to be among the sick and dead. That also means the sick and the dying are also not going to get care.”
Dr. Martin and his group are suing everybody from President Biden along with the FDA, CDC, Pfizer, Moderna and many others over the deaths and injuries from the CV19 bioweapons fraudulently passed off as “vaccines.” The next big court case is July 6, 2022, in federal court in Utah. Dr. Martin contends “this is far worse” than the Nuremberg trials of Nazis after WWII and adds, “This is organized crime. . . . They have hidden behind the immunity shield that absolves them of product liability by naming the delivery of a bioweapon–a vaccination program. . . . This is actually a criminal act. This is an act of domestic terror, and it is an anti-trust violation. This is racketeering. This is old school racketeering, and it is no different than the mob in the 1920’s. This is old school racketeering for personal gain and profit at the expense of human lives. You need to call it what it is, and it’s organized crime. I would say the Nazis were better than the people who are doing this. . . . The real question is why did American citizens develop a weapon to kill Americans and get paid to do it? That is a morally outrageous question, and, unfortunately, almost no one is asking it.”
There is much more in the 1-hour and 3-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com on Rumble as he interviews Dr. David Martin, the top expert in the ongoing and unfolding CV19 vax genocide and litigation for 6.21.22.
https://rumble.com/v1acoaa-up-to-100-million-will-die-from-cv19-vax-by-2028-dr-david-martin.html
After the Interview:
You can follow the CV19 vax cases at ProsecuteNow.io
You can follow Dr. Martin on DavidMartin.world or FullyLiveAcademy.com.
If you would like to make a donation to fund the court cases against Big Pharma and the federal government over CV19 bioweapons, click here.
https://usawatchdog.com/up-to-700-million-worldwide-will-die-from-cv19-vax-by-2028-dr-david-martin/
Two Doctors Are Finding Treatments for the Millions of Covid Vaccine Injured
By Paul Craig Roberts
June 28, 2022
Officially, there are no vaccine injured. The corrupt authorities in Big Pharma’s pocket say that the vaccine injured are “urban legends.” Factually, there are millions of vaccine injured. As the corrupt medical system will not acknowledge this truth, courageous doctors who the system is desperate to destroy are developing treatment protocols that work. Ivermectin, the Covid cure that was officially banned in order to make way for billions of dollars of “vaccine” profits, has turned out to be successful also for the treatment of vaccine injury.
Americans need to comprehend that Big Pharma, medical officialdom, and alleged “public health agencies” NIH, CDC, FDA, which in fact are corrupt marketing agents for Big Pharma, comprise a massive threat to public health. Additionally, Big Pharma and its “research” grants together with the private health insurers are gradually eliminating private medical practice, forcing doctors into the role of employees who must follow protocols developed by Big Pharma and its agents or be fired. Increasingly medical doctors are employees of “health care” organizations motivated solely by profit. These doctors have lost their independence, and this lost independence is the reason so many people were gratuitously murdered and injured by the mRNA vaccines.
The fact of the matter is that Americans can have no trust in their health care system or in the “public” agencies responsible for regulating it. The health system is completely captured by Big Pharma.
This video of an investigative journalist interviewing two of the principal doctors who have been fighting from the beginning of the so-called pandemic for correct treatment of Covid patients and prevention of the Death Shot is one of the most important sources of information required to understand the total corruption of public health by money.
https://www.redvoicemedia.com/video/2022/05/amazing-new-discoveries-for-treating-the-vaccine-injured-dr-kory-dr-marik-break-down-their-findings-video-interview/
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2022/06/28/two-doctors-are-finding-treatments-for-the-millions-of-covid-vaccine-injured/
Two Doctors Are Finding Treatments for the Millions of Covid Vaccine Injured
By Paul Craig Roberts
June 28, 2022
Officially, there are no vaccine injured. The corrupt authorities in Big Pharma’s pocket say that the vaccine injured are “urban legends.” Factually, there are millions of vaccine injured. As the corrupt medical system will not acknowledge this truth, courageous doctors who the system is desperate to destroy are developing treatment protocols that work. Ivermectin, the Covid cure that was officially banned in order to make way for billions of dollars of “vaccine” profits, has turned out to be successful also for the treatment of vaccine injury.
Americans need to comprehend that Big Pharma, medical officialdom, and alleged “public health agencies” NIH, CDC, FDA, which in fact are corrupt marketing agents for Big Pharma, comprise a massive threat to public health. Additionally, Big Pharma and its “research” grants together with the private health insurers are gradually eliminating private medical practice, forcing doctors into the role of employees who must follow protocols developed by Big Pharma and its agents or be fired. Increasingly medical doctors are employees of “health care” organizations motivated solely by profit. These doctors have lost their independence, and this lost independence is the reason so many people were gratuitously murdered and injured by the mRNA vaccines.
The fact of the matter is that Americans can have no trust in their health care system or in the “public” agencies responsible for regulating it. The health system is completely captured by Big Pharma.
This video of an investigative journalist interviewing two of the principal doctors who have been fighting from the beginning of the so-called pandemic for correct treatment of Covid patients and prevention of the Death Shot is one of the most important sources of information required to understand the total corruption of public health by money.
https://www.redvoicemedia.com/video/2022/05/amazing-new-discoveries-for-treating-the-vaccine-injured-dr-kory-dr-marik-break-down-their-findings-video-interview/
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2022/06/28/two-doctors-are-finding-treatments-for-the-millions-of-covid-vaccine-injured/
9:45a Chicago PMI
Index 56.0 actual vs 60.3 prior
Consensus Outlook
At 60.3 in May, the Chicago PMI exceeded Econoday's range for what is, however, an often volatile report. June's consensus is 58.4.
Definition
The Institute For Supply Management - Chicago compiles a survey and a composite diffusion index of business conditions in the Chicago area. Since October 2011, the survey has been conducted by Market News International. Manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms both are surveyed. Hence, it is not directly comparable to pure manufacturing surveys. Readings above 50 indicate an expanding business sector.
10:30a EIA Natural Gas Inventory
Week over Week 82bcf actual vs 74 bcf prior
Definition
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly information on natural gas stocks in underground storage for the U.S. and five regions of the country. The level of inventories helps determine prices for natural gas products.
9:45a Chicago PMI
Index 56.0 actual vs 60.3 prior
Consensus Outlook
At 60.3 in May, the Chicago PMI exceeded Econoday's range for what is, however, an often volatile report. June's consensus is 58.4.
Definition
The Institute For Supply Management - Chicago compiles a survey and a composite diffusion index of business conditions in the Chicago area. Since October 2011, the survey has been conducted by Market News International. Manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms both are surveyed. Hence, it is not directly comparable to pure manufacturing surveys. Readings above 50 indicate an expanding business sector.
10:30a EIA Natural Gas Inventory
Week over Week 82bcf actual vs 74 bcf prior
Definition
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly information on natural gas stocks in underground storage for the U.S. and five regions of the country. The level of inventories helps determine prices for natural gas products.
8:30a Initial Jobless Claims
Initial Claims - Level 231K actual vs 233K (rev) prior
Initial Claims - Change -2K actual vs 2K (rev) prior
4-Week Moving Average 231.75K actual vs 224.50K (rev) prior
Consensus Outlook
Jobless claims for the June 25 week are expected to come in at 226,000 versus 229,000 in the prior week.
Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.
8:30a Personal Income and Outlays
Personal Income - M/M 0.5% actual vs 0.5% (rev) prior
Personal Consumption Expenditures - M/M 0.2% actual vs 0.6% (rev) prior
PCE Price Index - M/M 0.6% actual vs 0.2% prior
PCE Price Index - Y/Y 6.3% actual vs 6.3% prior year
Core PCE Price Index - M/M 0.3% actual vs 0.3% prior month
Core PCE Price Index - Y/Y 4.7% actual vs 4.9% prior year
Consensus Outlook
Personal income is expected to rise 0.5 percent in May with personal consumption expenditures, which have beaten expectations the past two reports, also expected to rise 0.5 percent. Inflation readings, which have been stabilizing, are expected to mostly accelerate, to monthly gains of 0.7 overall and 0.4 percent for the core (versus 0.2 and 0.3 percent respectively) for annual rates of 6.5 and 4.8 percent (versus April's 6.3 and 4.9 percent).
Definition
Personal income represents the income that households receive from all sources including wages and salaries, fringe benefits such as employer contributions to private pension plans, proprietors' income, income from rent, dividends and interest and transfer payments such as Social Security and unemployment compensation. Personal contributions for social insurance are subtracted from personal income.
Personal consumption expenditures are the major portion of personal outlays, which also include personal interest payments and transfer payments. Personal consumption expenditures are divided into durable goods, nondurable goods and services. These figures are the monthly analogues to the quarterly consumption expenditures in the GDP report, available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars. Economic performance is more appropriately measured after the effects of inflation are removed.
Each month, the Bureau of Economic Analysis also compiles the personal consumption expenditure price index, also known as the PCE price index. This inflation index measures a basket of goods and services that is updated annually in contrast to the CPI, which measures a fixed basket.
8:30a Initial Jobless Claims
Initial Claims - Level 231K actual vs 233K (rev) prior
Initial Claims - Change -2K actual vs 2K (rev) prior
4-Week Moving Average 231.75K actual vs 224.50K (rev) prior
Consensus Outlook
Jobless claims for the June 25 week are expected to come in at 226,000 versus 229,000 in the prior week.
Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.
8:30a Personal Income and Outlays
Personal Income - M/M 0.5% actual vs 0.5% (rev) prior
Personal Consumption Expenditures - M/M 0.2% actual vs 0.6% (rev) prior
PCE Price Index - M/M 0.6% actual vs 0.2% prior
PCE Price Index - Y/Y 6.3% actual vs 6.3% prior year
Core PCE Price Index - M/M 0.3% actual vs 0.3% prior month
Core PCE Price Index - Y/Y 4.7% actual vs 4.9% prior year
Consensus Outlook
Personal income is expected to rise 0.5 percent in May with personal consumption expenditures, which have beaten expectations the past two reports, also expected to rise 0.5 percent. Inflation readings, which have been stabilizing, are expected to mostly accelerate, to monthly gains of 0.7 overall and 0.4 percent for the core (versus 0.2 and 0.3 percent respectively) for annual rates of 6.5 and 4.8 percent (versus April's 6.3 and 4.9 percent).
Definition
Personal income represents the income that households receive from all sources including wages and salaries, fringe benefits such as employer contributions to private pension plans, proprietors' income, income from rent, dividends and interest and transfer payments such as Social Security and unemployment compensation. Personal contributions for social insurance are subtracted from personal income.
Personal consumption expenditures are the major portion of personal outlays, which also include personal interest payments and transfer payments. Personal consumption expenditures are divided into durable goods, nondurable goods and services. These figures are the monthly analogues to the quarterly consumption expenditures in the GDP report, available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars. Economic performance is more appropriately measured after the effects of inflation are removed.
Each month, the Bureau of Economic Analysis also compiles the personal consumption expenditure price index, also known as the PCE price index. This inflation index measures a basket of goods and services that is updated annually in contrast to the CPI, which measures a fixed basket.
Denninger: The Amusement Of Market Callers
By Karl Denninger
2022-06-27 07:00
Boy, they're feeling their oats the last few days, aren't they?
"It's over."
"Buy."
"Get back in, if you got out."
Uh huh.
What's actually changed?
Well, interest rates have doubled on mortgages in the last six months or so, and have not gone back down -- nor will they to any appreciable degree. At 3% a $300,000 house has a P&I payment of $1,264.81.
That same house, at the same payment with rates at 6% is worth $210,960, a reduction of about 30%.
Oh, you think not? Well then that same person has to be able to come up with $1,798.65 a month for P&I and the $551.84 additional each and every month, over $6,600 a year, is not spent somewhere else because you can't spend the same dollar twice.
Has gas come down appreciably? No. Nor has diesel. Diesel is in literally everything since the farm tractor and combine run on it, the trucks move everything at least the last mile with it, and thus the price level will not relent in its pressure until and unless that cost recedes.
If I spent $20 a week to get to work a year or so ago and now spend $40 that's $1,000 a year that I don't have to spend on other things.
Behind every unit of economic output is a unit of energy. This is a fact and no amount of arm-waving will change it.
Within the next year or three corporate bonds will roll over. They always do. Corporations, unlike individuals, don't typically finance something and pay it off. They finance it and roll over the bond because otherwise they must have socked back the cash for the principal, and that reduces their earnings -- a lot. So they don't do it. When, not if, those bonds roll over the interest rates will be much higher. For the firms with the best credit the impact is, in percentage terms, greater than those with lesser credit. Why? Because going from 3% to 6% in the corporate bond market is a double while going from 10% to 13% is a 30% increase. Who's full-up with this leverage? Damn near everyone one way or another. Oh, you think not for places like Amazon? How many of their fixed facilities do they actually own? Almost none, which means they leased them and someone borrowed the money to build them. When said borrowing comes due and their lease must renew the rent goes up.
This won't show up instantly but it will show up with certainty. For the last 30 years corporate "earnings" have benefited mightily from the distortion in the rate structure. Almost nobody currently running money and analyzing firms has ever seen an economic world where rates are not falling on a five or ten year rolling basis. That's over folks, and it isn't coming back either.
Worse, the CPI has "Owner's Equivalent Rent" in it instead of house prices. This too, simply on mathematics, has benefited mightily from the interest rate environment always going down. It's artificial but consistent however the math runs the other way when rates are generally rising, which means the CPI now has the very same distortion pressure in reverse. Is that in the numbers yet? No, but it will be as certain as night follows day.
Never mind the so-called "Green Energy" nonsense. All of that is predicated on the federal government printing more money, which now, with the international sequestration door slammed closed and bolted (that will not come back for a decade or more after the Russia/Ukraine thing is over, if it ever does) any attempt to do that (e.g. solar panel subsidies, EV cars, etc.) instantly reflects back into CPI and hammers everyone. Further, any attempt by Congress to "soften the blow" via yet more deficit spending does the same thing -- not five or ten years hence but rather immediately within months. Congress has yet to have Powell say this in public but you can bet he has privately (look at M2 lately?) and if he has to show up six months from now and drive that point home in public -- he will.
Are the short term moves of the market material to long-term outcome? No. Indeed, there might be more rally in what we saw last week. But betting that the "tide has turned" when all of the fundamental factors behind said earnings power are going the wrong way and, on the PPI data, will be for at least the next 12 months is rather fruit-loop -- or perhaps it's desperation speaking -- don't you think?
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=246205
Denninger: The Amusement Of Market Callers
By Karl Denninger
2022-06-27 07:00
Boy, they're feeling their oats the last few days, aren't they?
"It's over."
"Buy."
"Get back in, if you got out."
Uh huh.
What's actually changed?
Well, interest rates have doubled on mortgages in the last six months or so, and have not gone back down -- nor will they to any appreciable degree. At 3% a $300,000 house has a P&I payment of $1,264.81.
That same house, at the same payment with rates at 6% is worth $210,960, a reduction of about 30%.
Oh, you think not? Well then that same person has to be able to come up with $1,798.65 a month for P&I and the $551.84 additional each and every month, over $6,600 a year, is not spent somewhere else because you can't spend the same dollar twice.
Has gas come down appreciably? No. Nor has diesel. Diesel is in literally everything since the farm tractor and combine run on it, the trucks move everything at least the last mile with it, and thus the price level will not relent in its pressure until and unless that cost recedes.
If I spent $20 a week to get to work a year or so ago and now spend $40 that's $1,000 a year that I don't have to spend on other things.
Behind every unit of economic output is a unit of energy. This is a fact and no amount of arm-waving will change it.
Within the next year or three corporate bonds will roll over. They always do. Corporations, unlike individuals, don't typically finance something and pay it off. They finance it and roll over the bond because otherwise they must have socked back the cash for the principal, and that reduces their earnings -- a lot. So they don't do it. When, not if, those bonds roll over the interest rates will be much higher. For the firms with the best credit the impact is, in percentage terms, greater than those with lesser credit. Why? Because going from 3% to 6% in the corporate bond market is a double while going from 10% to 13% is a 30% increase. Who's full-up with this leverage? Damn near everyone one way or another. Oh, you think not for places like Amazon? How many of their fixed facilities do they actually own? Almost none, which means they leased them and someone borrowed the money to build them. When said borrowing comes due and their lease must renew the rent goes up.
This won't show up instantly but it will show up with certainty. For the last 30 years corporate "earnings" have benefited mightily from the distortion in the rate structure. Almost nobody currently running money and analyzing firms has ever seen an economic world where rates are not falling on a five or ten year rolling basis. That's over folks, and it isn't coming back either.
Worse, the CPI has "Owner's Equivalent Rent" in it instead of house prices. This too, simply on mathematics, has benefited mightily from the interest rate environment always going down. It's artificial but consistent however the math runs the other way when rates are generally rising, which means the CPI now has the very same distortion pressure in reverse. Is that in the numbers yet? No, but it will be as certain as night follows day.
Never mind the so-called "Green Energy" nonsense. All of that is predicated on the federal government printing more money, which now, with the international sequestration door slammed closed and bolted (that will not come back for a decade or more after the Russia/Ukraine thing is over, if it ever does) any attempt to do that (e.g. solar panel subsidies, EV cars, etc.) instantly reflects back into CPI and hammers everyone. Further, any attempt by Congress to "soften the blow" via yet more deficit spending does the same thing -- not five or ten years hence but rather immediately within months. Congress has yet to have Powell say this in public but you can bet he has privately (look at M2 lately?) and if he has to show up six months from now and drive that point home in public -- he will.
Are the short term moves of the market material to long-term outcome? No. Indeed, there might be more rally in what we saw last week. But betting that the "tide has turned" when all of the fundamental factors behind said earnings power are going the wrong way and, on the PPI data, will be for at least the next 12 months is rather fruit-loop -- or perhaps it's desperation speaking -- don't you think?
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=246205
Today's Economic Calendar
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Personal Income and Outlays
9:45 Chicago PMI
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
3:00 PM Farm Prices
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan -1.5%. Hong Kong -0.6%. China +1.1%. India flat.
In Europe, at midday, London -1.7%. Paris -2.3%. Frankfurt -2.4%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -1%. S&P -1.3%. Nasdaq -1.6%. Crude -0.1% to $109.63. Gold -0.3% to $1812.80. Bitcoin -5.8% to $18,974.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -3 bps to 3.06%
Lace underwear made for a man
May just be a flash in the pan
But shorts that are frilly
And highlight the willy
Are making it big in Japan.
https://bit.ly/3QWz2bf
-Mick Twister
Today's Economic Calendar
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Personal Income and Outlays
9:45 Chicago PMI
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
3:00 PM Farm Prices
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan -1.5%. Hong Kong -0.6%. China +1.1%. India flat.
In Europe, at midday, London -1.7%. Paris -2.3%. Frankfurt -2.4%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -1%. S&P -1.3%. Nasdaq -1.6%. Crude -0.1% to $109.63. Gold -0.3% to $1812.80. Bitcoin -5.8% to $18,974.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -3 bps to 3.06%
Lace underwear made for a man
May just be a flash in the pan
But shorts that are frilly
And highlight the willy
Are making it big in Japan.
https://bit.ly/3QWz2bf
-Mick Twister
10:00a State Street Investor Confidence Index
Index 94.6 actual vs 97.2 (rev) prior
Definition
The State Street Investor Confidence Index measures confidence by looking at actual levels of risk in investment portfolios. This is not an attitude survey. The State Street Investor Confidence Index measures confidence directly by assessing the changes in investor holdings of equities. The more of their portfolio that institutional investors are willing to invest in equities, the greater their confidence. The report's main index is global and is based on activity in 45 countries. The report tracks more than 22 million transactions annually. There are three published components: North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific. The separate weightings of the three components vary month to month based on investment activity and are not published. Also included in the global index, but also not published, is activity in South America and the Middle East.
10:30a EIA Petroleum Inventories
Crude Oil Inventories - W/W -2.8M barrels vs -0.4M barrels prior
Gasoline Inventories - W/W 2.6M barrels vs 1.5M barrels prior
Distillate Inventories - W/W 2.6M barrels actual vs 0.1M barrels prior
Definition
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly information on petroleum inventories in the U.S., whether produced here or abroad. The level of inventories helps determine prices for petroleum products.
11:00a Survey of Business Uncertainty
Sales Growth 4.73% actual vs 4.45% prior
Employment Growth 4.92% actual vs 4.61% prior
Definition
The survey of business uncertainty is a panel survey measuring year-ahead expectations that US firms have about their own sales and employment growth. The sample covers all regions of the US economy, all industries except agriculture and government, and a broad range of firm sizes. Sample size is about 150 responses per month. Readings in Econoday's presentation are seasonally adjusted. The Atlanta Fed publishes this monthly survey in partnership with the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and with Stanford University. (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)
10:00a State Street Investor Confidence Index
Index 94.6 actual vs 97.2 (rev) prior
Definition
The State Street Investor Confidence Index measures confidence by looking at actual levels of risk in investment portfolios. This is not an attitude survey. The State Street Investor Confidence Index measures confidence directly by assessing the changes in investor holdings of equities. The more of their portfolio that institutional investors are willing to invest in equities, the greater their confidence. The report's main index is global and is based on activity in 45 countries. The report tracks more than 22 million transactions annually. There are three published components: North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific. The separate weightings of the three components vary month to month based on investment activity and are not published. Also included in the global index, but also not published, is activity in South America and the Middle East.
10:30a EIA Petroleum Inventories
Crude Oil Inventories - W/W -2.8M barrels vs -0.4M barrels prior
Gasoline Inventories - W/W 2.6M barrels vs 1.5M barrels prior
Distillate Inventories - W/W 2.6M barrels actual vs 0.1M barrels prior
Definition
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly information on petroleum inventories in the U.S., whether produced here or abroad. The level of inventories helps determine prices for petroleum products.
11:00a Survey of Business Uncertainty
Sales Growth 4.73% actual vs 4.45% prior
Employment Growth 4.92% actual vs 4.61% prior
Definition
The survey of business uncertainty is a panel survey measuring year-ahead expectations that US firms have about their own sales and employment growth. The sample covers all regions of the US economy, all industries except agriculture and government, and a broad range of firm sizes. Sample size is about 150 responses per month. Readings in Econoday's presentation are seasonally adjusted. The Atlanta Fed publishes this monthly survey in partnership with the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and with Stanford University. (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)
Kunstler: The Time of Our Time
By James Howard Kunstler
June 27, 2022
Let’s face it: most people will not read Justice Alito’s carefully crafted arguments about what the constitution says or doesn’t say about abortion, or the meaning of “ordered liberty” through our history. We do not live in history. We live in the time of our time. And, until just recently, this has been a time that discarded former modes of conduct between men, women, and children as inconvenient to the presumably greater project of self-actualization.
To be-all-that-you-can-be is a stirring notion, and it seemed to work nicely within the colossal techno-industrial armature of the past century, with all its inducements to thrive personally, at least for the comfortable elites who pulled the levers of that system — though not so much for those below caught in the gears, who produced children despite all the novel means for avoiding it. For the fortunate, motherhood became just another “no” box to check off, while fatherhood merged into the odious mists of obsolete patriarchy. History is made up of things that seem like good ideas at the time. The hard part now is moving out of a familiar time into the undiscovered country of a new time.
The support system for all that is going, going, gone and in the ensuing flux all that rousing self-actualization starts to look more like Thomas Hobbes’s war of all against all, a savage and pre-human state of nature. As this occurs, all human beings have to fall back on are modes of conduct that include a moral and ethical dimension, which is to say, what is right and what is wrong, not just what is allowed at a given moment.
Which is also to say: maybe the time of smashing boundaries is over. As that scaffold of techno-industrial comfort and safety disintegrates, and all the dazzling promises of becoming transhuman dissolve — sorry, Klaus Schwab — we will likely have to settle for being human again, and in the best way, not the worst way. That includes a certain reverence for our nature and for each other. That suggests not killing children.
These days, this place on the planet that used to be a nation groans under a tribulation of bad ideas, bad choices, bad conduct, bad management, and bad faith. We have not been so ripe for regime change since 1776. A ruling Party of Chaos is doing absolutely everything to disorder our lives and there really is no generous interpretation for its motives. Everything it touches breaks, wilts, withers, splinters, rots, poisons, and infects the body politic, driving it deeper into derangement. It doesn’t even pretend to make sense because that would require making distinctions between what is true and what’s not true. We follow-the-science into pure evil.
What awaits is the abandond scaffold of the family and the community as opposed to the brute hierarchies of mere lonely, forsaken persons under the leviathan state and the behemoth corporation, which have produced mainly new kinds of cruelties, such as: the deadly “vaccine” mandates, the no-knock FBI visitations, the surveillance cameras, the robotic phone trees with their interminable holds, the obtuse insults of the HR departments, the drag queens twerking in your childrens’ faces, and much more. You might not know it from the news — what is the news now, anyway, except mercenary shuck-and-jive — but these giant governments and corporations are thrashing in their death throes. Get out of their way if you possibly can. Form the bonds you can with people and cherish them. For many, they will be all you’ll have for a while.
You can’t overstate the havoc that we’ll have to live with in the months ahead, short of blowing up the whole joint, one can hope. And it will happen just as a gigantic set of pretenses to a New Order of things rolls out to thumping failure. Forget about central bank digital currencies. Don’t believe that the very people who have severed the relationship between actual capital and money can just magically conjure a new order of money that they propose to control and you don’t. Meanwhile, the old-school money they created too much of is headed for biggest gaping black hole imaginable because that’s what happens when money based on debt is not paid back. So, for a while, there will be too much money and then there will be not enough, and then nobody will have money.
All that happens as the supply of every kind of stuff in the world stops moving from Point A to Point B, including replacement parts for every sort of machine, distribution of petroleum and its products, and food. And at the same time, it finally becomes too obvious to ignore the fact that many millions are dying or becoming disabled from the effects of the mRNA vaccines foisted on the public, especially in the USA and Europe.
Out of all that suffering will eventually come a new respect for human life and reconstructed relations between men and women, with all the abstruse ambiguities, pretensions, and nebulosities about sex put aside for some future age of decadence. It won’t require further agonizing reappraisals by any high courts to figure it out. Children are the consequence of sex. Children are required to carry on the human project.
https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/the-time-of-our-time/
Kunstler: The Time of Our Time
By James Howard Kunstler
June 27, 2022
Let’s face it: most people will not read Justice Alito’s carefully crafted arguments about what the constitution says or doesn’t say about abortion, or the meaning of “ordered liberty” through our history. We do not live in history. We live in the time of our time. And, until just recently, this has been a time that discarded former modes of conduct between men, women, and children as inconvenient to the presumably greater project of self-actualization.
To be-all-that-you-can-be is a stirring notion, and it seemed to work nicely within the colossal techno-industrial armature of the past century, with all its inducements to thrive personally, at least for the comfortable elites who pulled the levers of that system — though not so much for those below caught in the gears, who produced children despite all the novel means for avoiding it. For the fortunate, motherhood became just another “no” box to check off, while fatherhood merged into the odious mists of obsolete patriarchy. History is made up of things that seem like good ideas at the time. The hard part now is moving out of a familiar time into the undiscovered country of a new time.
The support system for all that is going, going, gone and in the ensuing flux all that rousing self-actualization starts to look more like Thomas Hobbes’s war of all against all, a savage and pre-human state of nature. As this occurs, all human beings have to fall back on are modes of conduct that include a moral and ethical dimension, which is to say, what is right and what is wrong, not just what is allowed at a given moment.
Which is also to say: maybe the time of smashing boundaries is over. As that scaffold of techno-industrial comfort and safety disintegrates, and all the dazzling promises of becoming transhuman dissolve — sorry, Klaus Schwab — we will likely have to settle for being human again, and in the best way, not the worst way. That includes a certain reverence for our nature and for each other. That suggests not killing children.
These days, this place on the planet that used to be a nation groans under a tribulation of bad ideas, bad choices, bad conduct, bad management, and bad faith. We have not been so ripe for regime change since 1776. A ruling Party of Chaos is doing absolutely everything to disorder our lives and there really is no generous interpretation for its motives. Everything it touches breaks, wilts, withers, splinters, rots, poisons, and infects the body politic, driving it deeper into derangement. It doesn’t even pretend to make sense because that would require making distinctions between what is true and what’s not true. We follow-the-science into pure evil.
What awaits is the abandond scaffold of the family and the community as opposed to the brute hierarchies of mere lonely, forsaken persons under the leviathan state and the behemoth corporation, which have produced mainly new kinds of cruelties, such as: the deadly “vaccine” mandates, the no-knock FBI visitations, the surveillance cameras, the robotic phone trees with their interminable holds, the obtuse insults of the HR departments, the drag queens twerking in your childrens’ faces, and much more. You might not know it from the news — what is the news now, anyway, except mercenary shuck-and-jive — but these giant governments and corporations are thrashing in their death throes. Get out of their way if you possibly can. Form the bonds you can with people and cherish them. For many, they will be all you’ll have for a while.
You can’t overstate the havoc that we’ll have to live with in the months ahead, short of blowing up the whole joint, one can hope. And it will happen just as a gigantic set of pretenses to a New Order of things rolls out to thumping failure. Forget about central bank digital currencies. Don’t believe that the very people who have severed the relationship between actual capital and money can just magically conjure a new order of money that they propose to control and you don’t. Meanwhile, the old-school money they created too much of is headed for biggest gaping black hole imaginable because that’s what happens when money based on debt is not paid back. So, for a while, there will be too much money and then there will be not enough, and then nobody will have money.
All that happens as the supply of every kind of stuff in the world stops moving from Point A to Point B, including replacement parts for every sort of machine, distribution of petroleum and its products, and food. And at the same time, it finally becomes too obvious to ignore the fact that many millions are dying or becoming disabled from the effects of the mRNA vaccines foisted on the public, especially in the USA and Europe.
Out of all that suffering will eventually come a new respect for human life and reconstructed relations between men and women, with all the abstruse ambiguities, pretensions, and nebulosities about sex put aside for some future age of decadence. It won’t require further agonizing reappraisals by any high courts to figure it out. Children are the consequence of sex. Children are required to carry on the human project.
https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/the-time-of-our-time/
7:00a MBA Mortgage Applications
Composite Index - W/W 0.7% actual vs 4.2% prior
Purchase Index - W/W 0.1% actual vs 7.9% prior
Refinance Index - W/W 1.9% actual vs -3.1% prior
Definition
The Mortgage Bankers' Association compiles various mortgage loan indexes. The purchase applications index measures applications at mortgage lenders. This is a leading indicator for single-family home sales and housing construction.
8:30a GDP Q1
Quarter over Quarter - Annual Rate -1.6% actual vs -1.5% (rev) prior
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Annual Rate 1.8% actual vs 3.1% (rev) prior
Consensus Outlook
The third estimate for first-quarter GDP, at minus 1.4 percent, is expected to show little change from the second estimate of minus 1.5 percent. Personal consumption expenditures are expected to be unrevised at a 3.1 percent growth rate.
Definition
Gross Domestic Product represents the total value of the country's production during the period and consists of the purchases of domestically-produced goods and services by individuals, businesses, foreigners and government entities. Data are available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars, as well as in index form. Economists and market players always monitor the real growth rates generated by the GDP quantity index or the real dollar value. The quantity index measures inflation-adjusted activity, but we are more accustomed to looking at dollar values.
Household purchases are counted in personal consumption expenditures -- durable goods (such as furniture and cars), nondurable goods (such as clothing and food) and services (such as banking, education and transportation). Private housing purchases are classified as residential investment. Businesses invest in nonresidential structures, durable equipment and computer software. Inventories at all stages of production are counted as investment. Only inventory changes, not levels, are added to GDP.
Net exports equal the sum of exports less imports. Exports are the purchases by foreigners of goods and services produced in the United States. Imports represent domestic purchases of foreign-produced goods and services and must be deducted from the calculation of GDP. Government purchases of goods and services are the compensation of government employees and purchases from businesses and abroad. Data show the portion attributed to consumption and investment. Government outlays for transfer payments or interest payments are not included in GDP.
The GDP price index is a comprehensive indicator of inflation. It is typically lower than the consumer price index because investment goods (which are in the GDP price index but not the CPI) tend to have lower rates of inflation than consumer goods and services. Note that contributions of each component, as averaged over the prior year, are tracked in the table below (components do not exactly sum to total due to chain-weighted methodology). Consumption expenditures, otherwise known as consumer spending, has over history been steadily making up an increasing share of GDP.
8:30a Corporate profits
After-Tax - Y/Y 15.2% actual vs 15.7% prior
With Inventory & Consumption Adjustments - Y/Y 8.8% actual vs 9.5% prior
Definition
Corporate profits are derived from the national income and product accounts and are expressed in several measures. Econoday's focus is on the most relevant measure for the total economy, after-tax profits.
7:00a MBA Mortgage Applications
Composite Index - W/W 0.7% actual vs 4.2% prior
Purchase Index - W/W 0.1% actual vs 7.9% prior
Refinance Index - W/W 1.9% actual vs -3.1% prior
Definition
The Mortgage Bankers' Association compiles various mortgage loan indexes. The purchase applications index measures applications at mortgage lenders. This is a leading indicator for single-family home sales and housing construction.
8:30a GDP Q1
Quarter over Quarter - Annual Rate -1.6% actual vs -1.5% (rev) prior
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Annual Rate 1.8% actual vs 3.1% (rev) prior
Consensus Outlook
The third estimate for first-quarter GDP, at minus 1.4 percent, is expected to show little change from the second estimate of minus 1.5 percent. Personal consumption expenditures are expected to be unrevised at a 3.1 percent growth rate.
Definition
Gross Domestic Product represents the total value of the country's production during the period and consists of the purchases of domestically-produced goods and services by individuals, businesses, foreigners and government entities. Data are available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars, as well as in index form. Economists and market players always monitor the real growth rates generated by the GDP quantity index or the real dollar value. The quantity index measures inflation-adjusted activity, but we are more accustomed to looking at dollar values.
Household purchases are counted in personal consumption expenditures -- durable goods (such as furniture and cars), nondurable goods (such as clothing and food) and services (such as banking, education and transportation). Private housing purchases are classified as residential investment. Businesses invest in nonresidential structures, durable equipment and computer software. Inventories at all stages of production are counted as investment. Only inventory changes, not levels, are added to GDP.
Net exports equal the sum of exports less imports. Exports are the purchases by foreigners of goods and services produced in the United States. Imports represent domestic purchases of foreign-produced goods and services and must be deducted from the calculation of GDP. Government purchases of goods and services are the compensation of government employees and purchases from businesses and abroad. Data show the portion attributed to consumption and investment. Government outlays for transfer payments or interest payments are not included in GDP.
The GDP price index is a comprehensive indicator of inflation. It is typically lower than the consumer price index because investment goods (which are in the GDP price index but not the CPI) tend to have lower rates of inflation than consumer goods and services. Note that contributions of each component, as averaged over the prior year, are tracked in the table below (components do not exactly sum to total due to chain-weighted methodology). Consumption expenditures, otherwise known as consumer spending, has over history been steadily making up an increasing share of GDP.
8:30a Corporate profits
After-Tax - Y/Y 15.2% actual vs 15.7% prior
With Inventory & Consumption Adjustments - Y/Y 8.8% actual vs 9.5% prior
Definition
Corporate profits are derived from the national income and product accounts and are expressed in several measures. Econoday's focus is on the most relevant measure for the total economy, after-tax profits.
Today's Economic Calendar
6:30 Fed's Mester Speech
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 GDP Q1
8:30 Corporate profits
9:00 Jerome Powell Speech
10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
11:00 Survey of Business Uncertainty
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan -0.9%. Hong Kong -1.9%. China -1.4%. India -0.3%.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.7%. Paris -1.4%. Frankfurt -2%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.1%. S&P -0.2%. Nasdaq -0.3%. Crude +0.5% to $112.28. Gold -0.2% to $1818.40. Bitcoin -4.6% to $20,069.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -4 bps to 3.17%
The strategist Vladimir Putin
Set out to stop Nato recruitin’,
But seeing his deeds
The Finns and the Swedes,
Are eager to start contributin’.
https://t.co/jJ0YZhCMB9
-Mick Twister
Today's Economic Calendar
6:30 Fed's Mester Speech
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 GDP Q1
8:30 Corporate profits
9:00 Jerome Powell Speech
10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
11:00 Survey of Business Uncertainty
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan -0.9%. Hong Kong -1.9%. China -1.4%. India -0.3%.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.7%. Paris -1.4%. Frankfurt -2%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.1%. S&P -0.2%. Nasdaq -0.3%. Crude +0.5% to $112.28. Gold -0.2% to $1818.40. Bitcoin -4.6% to $20,069.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -4 bps to 3.17%
The strategist Vladimir Putin
Set out to stop Nato recruitin’,
But seeing his deeds
The Finns and the Swedes,
Are eager to start contributin’.
https://t.co/jJ0YZhCMB9
-Mick Twister
Two Doctors Are Finding Treatments for the Millions of Covid Vaccine Injured
By Paul Craig Roberts
June 28, 2022
Officially, there are no vaccine injured. The corrupt authorities in Big Pharma’s pocket say that the vaccine injured are “urban legends.” Factually, there are millions of vaccine injured. As the corrupt medical system will not acknowledge this truth, courageous doctors who the system is desperate to destroy are developing treatment protocols that work. Ivermectin, the Covid cure that was officially banned in order to make way for billions of dollars of “vaccine” profits, has turned out to be successful also for the treatment of vaccine injury.
Americans need to comprehend that Big Pharma, medical officialdom, and alleged “public health agencies” NIH, CDC, FDA, which in fact are corrupt marketing agents for Big Pharma, comprise a massive threat to public health. Additionally, Big Pharma and its “research” grants together with the private health insurers are gradually eliminating private medical practice, forcing doctors into the role of employees who must follow protocols developed by Big Pharma and its agents or be fired. Increasingly medical doctors are employees of “health care” organizations motivated solely by profit. These doctors have lost their independence, and this lost independence is the reason so many people were gratuitously murdered and injured by the mRNA vaccines.
The fact of the matter is that Americans can have no trust in their health care system or in the “public” agencies responsible for regulating it. The health system is completely captured by Big Pharma.
This video of an investigative journalist interviewing two of the principal doctors who have been fighting from the beginning of the so-called pandemic for correct treatment of Covid patients and prevention of the Death Shot is one of the most important sources of information required to understand the total corruption of public health by money.
https://www.redvoicemedia.com/video/2022/05/amazing-new-discoveries-for-treating-the-vaccine-injured-dr-kory-dr-marik-break-down-their-findings-video-interview/
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2022/06/28/two-doctors-are-finding-treatments-for-the-millions-of-covid-vaccine-injured/
Two Doctors Are Finding Treatments for the Millions of Covid Vaccine Injured
By Paul Craig Roberts
June 28, 2022
Officially, there are no vaccine injured. The corrupt authorities in Big Pharma’s pocket say that the vaccine injured are “urban legends.” Factually, there are millions of vaccine injured. As the corrupt medical system will not acknowledge this truth, courageous doctors who the system is desperate to destroy are developing treatment protocols that work. Ivermectin, the Covid cure that was officially banned in order to make way for billions of dollars of “vaccine” profits, has turned out to be successful also for the treatment of vaccine injury.
Americans need to comprehend that Big Pharma, medical officialdom, and alleged “public health agencies” NIH, CDC, FDA, which in fact are corrupt marketing agents for Big Pharma, comprise a massive threat to public health. Additionally, Big Pharma and its “research” grants together with the private health insurers are gradually eliminating private medical practice, forcing doctors into the role of employees who must follow protocols developed by Big Pharma and its agents or be fired. Increasingly medical doctors are employees of “health care” organizations motivated solely by profit. These doctors have lost their independence, and this lost independence is the reason so many people were gratuitously murdered and injured by the mRNA vaccines.
The fact of the matter is that Americans can have no trust in their health care system or in the “public” agencies responsible for regulating it. The health system is completely captured by Big Pharma.
This video of an investigative journalist interviewing two of the principal doctors who have been fighting from the beginning of the so-called pandemic for correct treatment of Covid patients and prevention of the Death Shot is one of the most important sources of information required to understand the total corruption of public health by money.
https://www.redvoicemedia.com/video/2022/05/amazing-new-discoveries-for-treating-the-vaccine-injured-dr-kory-dr-marik-break-down-their-findings-video-interview/
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2022/06/28/two-doctors-are-finding-treatments-for-the-millions-of-covid-vaccine-injured/
Denninger: The Amusement Of Market Callers
By Karl Denninger
2022-06-27 07:00
Boy, they're feeling their oats the last few days, aren't they?
"It's over."
"Buy."
"Get back in, if you got out."
Uh huh.
What's actually changed?
Well, interest rates have doubled on mortgages in the last six months or so, and have not gone back down -- nor will they to any appreciable degree. At 3% a $300,000 house has a P&I payment of $1,264.81.
That same house, at the same payment with rates at 6% is worth $210,960, a reduction of about 30%.
Oh, you think not? Well then that same person has to be able to come up with $1,798.65 a month for P&I and the $551.84 additional each and every month, over $6,600 a year, is not spent somewhere else because you can't spend the same dollar twice.
Has gas come down appreciably? No. Nor has diesel. Diesel is in literally everything since the farm tractor and combine run on it, the trucks move everything at least the last mile with it, and thus the price level will not relent in its pressure until and unless that cost recedes.
If I spent $20 a week to get to work a year or so ago and now spend $40 that's $1,000 a year that I don't have to spend on other things.
Behind every unit of economic output is a unit of energy. This is a fact and no amount of arm-waving will change it.
Within the next year or three corporate bonds will roll over. They always do. Corporations, unlike individuals, don't typically finance something and pay it off. They finance it and roll over the bond because otherwise they must have socked back the cash for the principal, and that reduces their earnings -- a lot. So they don't do it. When, not if, those bonds roll over the interest rates will be much higher. For the firms with the best credit the impact is, in percentage terms, greater than those with lesser credit. Why? Because going from 3% to 6% in the corporate bond market is a double while going from 10% to 13% is a 30% increase. Who's full-up with this leverage? Damn near everyone one way or another. Oh, you think not for places like Amazon? How many of their fixed facilities do they actually own? Almost none, which means they leased them and someone borrowed the money to build them. When said borrowing comes due and their lease must renew the rent goes up.
This won't show up instantly but it will show up with certainty. For the last 30 years corporate "earnings" have benefited mightily from the distortion in the rate structure. Almost nobody currently running money and analyzing firms has ever seen an economic world where rates are not falling on a five or ten year rolling basis. That's over folks, and it isn't coming back either.
Worse, the CPI has "Owner's Equivalent Rent" in it instead of house prices. This too, simply on mathematics, has benefited mightily from the interest rate environment always going down. It's artificial but consistent however the math runs the other way when rates are generally rising, which means the CPI now has the very same distortion pressure in reverse. Is that in the numbers yet? No, but it will be as certain as night follows day.
Never mind the so-called "Green Energy" nonsense. All of that is predicated on the federal government printing more money, which now, with the international sequestration door slammed closed and bolted (that will not come back for a decade or more after the Russia/Ukraine thing is over, if it ever does) any attempt to do that (e.g. solar panel subsidies, EV cars, etc.) instantly reflects back into CPI and hammers everyone. Further, any attempt by Congress to "soften the blow" via yet more deficit spending does the same thing -- not five or ten years hence but rather immediately within months. Congress has yet to have Powell say this in public but you can bet he has privately (look at M2 lately?) and if he has to show up six months from now and drive that point home in public -- he will.
Are the short term moves of the market material to long-term outcome? No. Indeed, there might be more rally in what we saw last week. But betting that the "tide has turned" when all of the fundamental factors behind said earnings power are going the wrong way and, on the PPI data, will be for at least the next 12 months is rather fruit-loop -- or perhaps it's desperation speaking -- don't you think?
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=246205
Denninger: The Amusement Of Market Callers
By Karl Denninger
2022-06-27 07:00
Boy, they're feeling their oats the last few days, aren't they?
"It's over."
"Buy."
"Get back in, if you got out."
Uh huh.
What's actually changed?
Well, interest rates have doubled on mortgages in the last six months or so, and have not gone back down -- nor will they to any appreciable degree. At 3% a $300,000 house has a P&I payment of $1,264.81.
That same house, at the same payment with rates at 6% is worth $210,960, a reduction of about 30%.
Oh, you think not? Well then that same person has to be able to come up with $1,798.65 a month for P&I and the $551.84 additional each and every month, over $6,600 a year, is not spent somewhere else because you can't spend the same dollar twice.
Has gas come down appreciably? No. Nor has diesel. Diesel is in literally everything since the farm tractor and combine run on it, the trucks move everything at least the last mile with it, and thus the price level will not relent in its pressure until and unless that cost recedes.
If I spent $20 a week to get to work a year or so ago and now spend $40 that's $1,000 a year that I don't have to spend on other things.
Behind every unit of economic output is a unit of energy. This is a fact and no amount of arm-waving will change it.
Within the next year or three corporate bonds will roll over. They always do. Corporations, unlike individuals, don't typically finance something and pay it off. They finance it and roll over the bond because otherwise they must have socked back the cash for the principal, and that reduces their earnings -- a lot. So they don't do it. When, not if, those bonds roll over the interest rates will be much higher. For the firms with the best credit the impact is, in percentage terms, greater than those with lesser credit. Why? Because going from 3% to 6% in the corporate bond market is a double while going from 10% to 13% is a 30% increase. Who's full-up with this leverage? Damn near everyone one way or another. Oh, you think not for places like Amazon? How many of their fixed facilities do they actually own? Almost none, which means they leased them and someone borrowed the money to build them. When said borrowing comes due and their lease must renew the rent goes up.
This won't show up instantly but it will show up with certainty. For the last 30 years corporate "earnings" have benefited mightily from the distortion in the rate structure. Almost nobody currently running money and analyzing firms has ever seen an economic world where rates are not falling on a five or ten year rolling basis. That's over folks, and it isn't coming back either.
Worse, the CPI has "Owner's Equivalent Rent" in it instead of house prices. This too, simply on mathematics, has benefited mightily from the interest rate environment always going down. It's artificial but consistent however the math runs the other way when rates are generally rising, which means the CPI now has the very same distortion pressure in reverse. Is that in the numbers yet? No, but it will be as certain as night follows day.
Never mind the so-called "Green Energy" nonsense. All of that is predicated on the federal government printing more money, which now, with the international sequestration door slammed closed and bolted (that will not come back for a decade or more after the Russia/Ukraine thing is over, if it ever does) any attempt to do that (e.g. solar panel subsidies, EV cars, etc.) instantly reflects back into CPI and hammers everyone. Further, any attempt by Congress to "soften the blow" via yet more deficit spending does the same thing -- not five or ten years hence but rather immediately within months. Congress has yet to have Powell say this in public but you can bet he has privately (look at M2 lately?) and if he has to show up six months from now and drive that point home in public -- he will.
Are the short term moves of the market material to long-term outcome? No. Indeed, there might be more rally in what we saw last week. But betting that the "tide has turned" when all of the fundamental factors behind said earnings power are going the wrong way and, on the PPI data, will be for at least the next 12 months is rather fruit-loop -- or perhaps it's desperation speaking -- don't you think?
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=246205
Kunstler: The Time of Our Time
By James Howard Kunstler
June 27, 2022
Let’s face it: most people will not read Justice Alito’s carefully crafted arguments about what the constitution says or doesn’t say about abortion, or the meaning of “ordered liberty” through our history. We do not live in history. We live in the time of our time. And, until just recently, this has been a time that discarded former modes of conduct between men, women, and children as inconvenient to the presumably greater project of self-actualization.
To be-all-that-you-can-be is a stirring notion, and it seemed to work nicely within the colossal techno-industrial armature of the past century, with all its inducements to thrive personally, at least for the comfortable elites who pulled the levers of that system — though not so much for those below caught in the gears, who produced children despite all the novel means for avoiding it. For the fortunate, motherhood became just another “no” box to check off, while fatherhood merged into the odious mists of obsolete patriarchy. History is made up of things that seem like good ideas at the time. The hard part now is moving out of a familiar time into the undiscovered country of a new time.
The support system for all that is going, going, gone and in the ensuing flux all that rousing self-actualization starts to look more like Thomas Hobbes’s war of all against all, a savage and pre-human state of nature. As this occurs, all human beings have to fall back on are modes of conduct that include a moral and ethical dimension, which is to say, what is right and what is wrong, not just what is allowed at a given moment.
Which is also to say: maybe the time of smashing boundaries is over. As that scaffold of techno-industrial comfort and safety disintegrates, and all the dazzling promises of becoming transhuman dissolve — sorry, Klaus Schwab — we will likely have to settle for being human again, and in the best way, not the worst way. That includes a certain reverence for our nature and for each other. That suggests not killing children.
These days, this place on the planet that used to be a nation groans under a tribulation of bad ideas, bad choices, bad conduct, bad management, and bad faith. We have not been so ripe for regime change since 1776. A ruling Party of Chaos is doing absolutely everything to disorder our lives and there really is no generous interpretation for its motives. Everything it touches breaks, wilts, withers, splinters, rots, poisons, and infects the body politic, driving it deeper into derangement. It doesn’t even pretend to make sense because that would require making distinctions between what is true and what’s not true. We follow-the-science into pure evil.
What awaits is the abandond scaffold of the family and the community as opposed to the brute hierarchies of mere lonely, forsaken persons under the leviathan state and the behemoth corporation, which have produced mainly new kinds of cruelties, such as: the deadly “vaccine” mandates, the no-knock FBI visitations, the surveillance cameras, the robotic phone trees with their interminable holds, the obtuse insults of the HR departments, the drag queens twerking in your childrens’ faces, and much more. You might not know it from the news — what is the news now, anyway, except mercenary shuck-and-jive — but these giant governments and corporations are thrashing in their death throes. Get out of their way if you possibly can. Form the bonds you can with people and cherish them. For many, they will be all you’ll have for a while.
You can’t overstate the havoc that we’ll have to live with in the months ahead, short of blowing up the whole joint, one can hope. And it will happen just as a gigantic set of pretenses to a New Order of things rolls out to thumping failure. Forget about central bank digital currencies. Don’t believe that the very people who have severed the relationship between actual capital and money can just magically conjure a new order of money that they propose to control and you don’t. Meanwhile, the old-school money they created too much of is headed for biggest gaping black hole imaginable because that’s what happens when money based on debt is not paid back. So, for a while, there will be too much money and then there will be not enough, and then nobody will have money.
All that happens as the supply of every kind of stuff in the world stops moving from Point A to Point B, including replacement parts for every sort of machine, distribution of petroleum and its products, and food. And at the same time, it finally becomes too obvious to ignore the fact that many millions are dying or becoming disabled from the effects of the mRNA vaccines foisted on the public, especially in the USA and Europe.
Out of all that suffering will eventually come a new respect for human life and reconstructed relations between men and women, with all the abstruse ambiguities, pretensions, and nebulosities about sex put aside for some future age of decadence. It won’t require further agonizing reappraisals by any high courts to figure it out. Children are the consequence of sex. Children are required to carry on the human project.
https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/the-time-of-our-time/
Kunstler: The Time of Our Time
By James Howard Kunstler
June 27, 2022
Let’s face it: most people will not read Justice Alito’s carefully crafted arguments about what the constitution says or doesn’t say about abortion, or the meaning of “ordered liberty” through our history. We do not live in history. We live in the time of our time. And, until just recently, this has been a time that discarded former modes of conduct between men, women, and children as inconvenient to the presumably greater project of self-actualization.
To be-all-that-you-can-be is a stirring notion, and it seemed to work nicely within the colossal techno-industrial armature of the past century, with all its inducements to thrive personally, at least for the comfortable elites who pulled the levers of that system — though not so much for those below caught in the gears, who produced children despite all the novel means for avoiding it. For the fortunate, motherhood became just another “no” box to check off, while fatherhood merged into the odious mists of obsolete patriarchy. History is made up of things that seem like good ideas at the time. The hard part now is moving out of a familiar time into the undiscovered country of a new time.
The support system for all that is going, going, gone and in the ensuing flux all that rousing self-actualization starts to look more like Thomas Hobbes’s war of all against all, a savage and pre-human state of nature. As this occurs, all human beings have to fall back on are modes of conduct that include a moral and ethical dimension, which is to say, what is right and what is wrong, not just what is allowed at a given moment.
Which is also to say: maybe the time of smashing boundaries is over. As that scaffold of techno-industrial comfort and safety disintegrates, and all the dazzling promises of becoming transhuman dissolve — sorry, Klaus Schwab — we will likely have to settle for being human again, and in the best way, not the worst way. That includes a certain reverence for our nature and for each other. That suggests not killing children.
These days, this place on the planet that used to be a nation groans under a tribulation of bad ideas, bad choices, bad conduct, bad management, and bad faith. We have not been so ripe for regime change since 1776. A ruling Party of Chaos is doing absolutely everything to disorder our lives and there really is no generous interpretation for its motives. Everything it touches breaks, wilts, withers, splinters, rots, poisons, and infects the body politic, driving it deeper into derangement. It doesn’t even pretend to make sense because that would require making distinctions between what is true and what’s not true. We follow-the-science into pure evil.
What awaits is the abandond scaffold of the family and the community as opposed to the brute hierarchies of mere lonely, forsaken persons under the leviathan state and the behemoth corporation, which have produced mainly new kinds of cruelties, such as: the deadly “vaccine” mandates, the no-knock FBI visitations, the surveillance cameras, the robotic phone trees with their interminable holds, the obtuse insults of the HR departments, the drag queens twerking in your childrens’ faces, and much more. You might not know it from the news — what is the news now, anyway, except mercenary shuck-and-jive — but these giant governments and corporations are thrashing in their death throes. Get out of their way if you possibly can. Form the bonds you can with people and cherish them. For many, they will be all you’ll have for a while.
You can’t overstate the havoc that we’ll have to live with in the months ahead, short of blowing up the whole joint, one can hope. And it will happen just as a gigantic set of pretenses to a New Order of things rolls out to thumping failure. Forget about central bank digital currencies. Don’t believe that the very people who have severed the relationship between actual capital and money can just magically conjure a new order of money that they propose to control and you don’t. Meanwhile, the old-school money they created too much of is headed for biggest gaping black hole imaginable because that’s what happens when money based on debt is not paid back. So, for a while, there will be too much money and then there will be not enough, and then nobody will have money.
All that happens as the supply of every kind of stuff in the world stops moving from Point A to Point B, including replacement parts for every sort of machine, distribution of petroleum and its products, and food. And at the same time, it finally becomes too obvious to ignore the fact that many millions are dying or becoming disabled from the effects of the mRNA vaccines foisted on the public, especially in the USA and Europe.
Out of all that suffering will eventually come a new respect for human life and reconstructed relations between men and women, with all the abstruse ambiguities, pretensions, and nebulosities about sex put aside for some future age of decadence. It won’t require further agonizing reappraisals by any high courts to figure it out. Children are the consequence of sex. Children are required to carry on the human project.
https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/the-time-of-our-time/
9:00a S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index
20-City Adjusted - M/M 1.8% actual vs 2.4% prior
20-City Unadjusted - M/M 2.3% actual vs 3.1% prior
20-City Unadjusted - Y/Y 21.2% actual vs 21.1% (rev) prior
Consensus Outlook
Econoday's monthly consensus estimate is a monthly jump of 1.8 for the adjusted 20-city index and an unadjusted yearly rate of 21.0 percent. Forecasters have underestimated the strength of Case-Shiller price data the last five reports.
Definition
The S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller home price index tracks monthly changes in the value of residential real estate in 20 metropolitan regions across the nation. Composite indexes and regional indexes measure changes in existing home prices and are based on single-family home resales. Condominiums and co-ops are excluded as is new construction. Note that forecasters, in line with recommendations from Standard & Poor's questioning the accuracy of seasonal adjustments, track both seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted monthly data for this indicator.
9:00a FHFA House Price Index
Month over Month 1.6% actual vs 1.6% (rev) prior
Year over Year 18.8% actual vs 19.1% (rev) prior
Definition
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI) covers single-family housing, using data provided by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The House Price Index is derived from transactions involving conforming conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. In contrast to other house price indexes, the sample is limited by the ceiling amount for conforming loans purchased by these government-sponsored enterprises (GSE). Mortgages insured by the FHA, VA, or other federal entities are excluded because they are not "conventional" loans. The FHFA House Price Index is a repeat transactions measure. It compares prices or appraised values for similar houses and applies to both purchases and refinancing.
10:00a Consumer Confidence
Index 98.7 actual vs 103.2 (rev) prior
Consensus Outlook
Following May's 106.4, the consumer confidence index for June is expected to ratchet lower to 101.0.
Definition
The Conference Board compiles a survey of consumer attitudes on the economy. The headline Consumer Confidence Index is based on consumers' perceptions of current business and employment conditions, as well as their expectations for six months hence regarding business conditions, employment, and income. Three thousand households across the country are surveyed each month. In general, while the level of consumer confidence is associated with consumer spending, the two do not move in tandem each and every month.
10:00a Richmond Fed Mfg.
Index -19 actual vs 2 prior
Consensus Outlook
A bounce back to just above the zero line at plus 2 is expected for the Richmond manufacturing index in June which in May came in well below expectations, at minus 9.
Definition
This survey tracks business conditions in the Richmond Fed's manufacturing sector. The headline index is a composite of the new orders, shipments, and employment indexes.
9:00a S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index
20-City Adjusted - M/M 1.8% actual vs 2.4% prior
20-City Unadjusted - M/M 2.3% actual vs 3.1% prior
20-City Unadjusted - Y/Y 21.2% actual vs 21.1% (rev) prior
Consensus Outlook
Econoday's monthly consensus estimate is a monthly jump of 1.8 for the adjusted 20-city index and an unadjusted yearly rate of 21.0 percent. Forecasters have underestimated the strength of Case-Shiller price data the last five reports.
Definition
The S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller home price index tracks monthly changes in the value of residential real estate in 20 metropolitan regions across the nation. Composite indexes and regional indexes measure changes in existing home prices and are based on single-family home resales. Condominiums and co-ops are excluded as is new construction. Note that forecasters, in line with recommendations from Standard & Poor's questioning the accuracy of seasonal adjustments, track both seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted monthly data for this indicator.
9:00a FHFA House Price Index
Month over Month 1.6% actual vs 1.6% (rev) prior
Year over Year 18.8% actual vs 19.1% (rev) prior
Definition
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI) covers single-family housing, using data provided by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The House Price Index is derived from transactions involving conforming conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. In contrast to other house price indexes, the sample is limited by the ceiling amount for conforming loans purchased by these government-sponsored enterprises (GSE). Mortgages insured by the FHA, VA, or other federal entities are excluded because they are not "conventional" loans. The FHFA House Price Index is a repeat transactions measure. It compares prices or appraised values for similar houses and applies to both purchases and refinancing.
10:00a Consumer Confidence
Index 98.7 actual vs 103.2 (rev) prior
Consensus Outlook
Following May's 106.4, the consumer confidence index for June is expected to ratchet lower to 101.0.
Definition
The Conference Board compiles a survey of consumer attitudes on the economy. The headline Consumer Confidence Index is based on consumers' perceptions of current business and employment conditions, as well as their expectations for six months hence regarding business conditions, employment, and income. Three thousand households across the country are surveyed each month. In general, while the level of consumer confidence is associated with consumer spending, the two do not move in tandem each and every month.
10:00a Richmond Fed Mfg.
Index -19 actual vs 2 prior
Consensus Outlook
A bounce back to just above the zero line at plus 2 is expected for the Richmond manufacturing index in June which in May came in well below expectations, at minus 9.
Definition
This survey tracks business conditions in the Richmond Fed's manufacturing sector. The headline index is a composite of the new orders, shipments, and employment indexes.
8:30a International Trade in Goods (Advance)
Balance $-104.3B actual vs $-106.7B (rev) prior
Imports - M/M -0.1% actual vs -4.4% (rev) prior
Exports - M/M 1.2% actual vs 3.6% (rev) prior
Consensus Outlook
The US goods deficit (Census basis) is expected to narrow further to $102.0 billion in May after narrowing by nearly $20 billion to $106.7 billion in April. This report has been severely volatile in recent months.
Definition
The Census Bureau is now publishing an advance report on U.S. international trade in goods. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will incorporate these data into its estimates of exports and imports for the advance GDP estimates. This is expected to reduce the size of revisions to GDP growth in the second estimates.
Note that data in the advance goods report are accounted for on a census basis and can differ slightly from subsequent data in the international trade report where goods data are accounted for on a balance of payment basis to adjust for changes in ownership that can occur without goods passing into or out of the US.
8:30a Retail Inventories (Advance)
Month over Month 1.1% actual vs 0.7% prior
Definition
Retail inventories measure the monthly dollar value of inventories held by retailers. The advance report is released late in the month for the following month and is part of the Monthly Advance Economic Indicators report (which also includes data on wholesale inventories and international trade in goods). Final monthly data for retail inventories are released about two weeks later with the Business Sales and Inventories report.
8:30a Wholesale Inventories (Advance)
Month over Month 2.0% actual vs 2.3% (rev) prior
Consensus Outlook
Wholesale inventories are expected to increase 2.1 percent in the advance report for May that would follow a 2.2 percent build in May.
Definition
Wholesale inventories measure the monthly dollar value of inventories held by merchant wholesalers and are tracked to gauge inventory change in quarterly GDP. The advance report is released late in the month for the following month and is part of the Monthly Advance Economic Indicators report (which also includes data on retail inventories and international trade in goods). Final monthly data for wholesale inventories are released about two weeks later with the Wholesale Trade report which also includes initial monthly data on wholesale sales.