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So when’s everyone buying more? If it hits $5 I’m buying a chunk.
Not saying it’s bad to see. Just that it doesn’t tell us enough new and isn’t proof enough of anything.
They need to prove that they can actually make money and not just built “potential”. Thus far, they haven’t been able to do so.
I don’t know about this being the issue. I think per the previous comment, this is mostly not a lot there. We already knew of the large backlog growth. The additional 4 million isn’t overly material. And to the extent that it is, we don’t know of this means that sales are continuing to accelerate or whether this is because their supply issues/second factory opening has continued to delay things and orders are just getting backed up.
So this could be either a good or bad thing for the current and next quarter relative to previously known info.
Thanks for the digging. This good stuff to know.
Which combined with this lasts quarter averages less than a penny a quarter. They need to get that gross margin up closer to 40%.
My pause for concern on this story though is that the falling short wasn’t just a delay in engine supply. They lead with that to try to make this sound like an external problem, but it was also because of engineering retooling for t-mobile and a delay in opening the 2nd facility/having difficulty with the 2nd production shift.
So while these may be temporary problems, there is evidence that they continue to not be able to perform as they claim they are soon able to do. And while it’s great that demand for the product is there and they are growing sales, with their higher fixed cost structure now (not to mention higher exec pay), if they can’t get their operation act together, they are not going to hit those gross margin levels needed to drive profitability.
The current share price is not assuming them making 2 cents a quarter. For this to take off they need to be on the firecrackers future making 10 cents a quarter anyway.
They need to be able to prove that they can do that and that production cost over runs and lastminute engineering retooling aren’t just the norm leading to perminant 30% gross margins rather than 40%.
Well at some point they need to actually start making money rather then producing yet another quarter of potential.
So haven’t listened to the CC yet. But are people convinced that their excuse this quarter is legit and they are right on track for some great quarters soon? Or this just more promises and bumbling on their part?
Have they ever just dropped earnings before? Or have they always announced ahead of time an earnings date?
Speaking of shorts, that was some pretty rediculous bs today at the close.
How would you interpreted that $7.5 million number? That they just received that in some recent time period? Or that’s basically their orders from the US three telecoms for the whole quarter? The wording is rather vague. And they didn’t say this was a follow on order from t mobile in the way they described the original one.
And still the end of the day last second manipulation looking small sell at the bid.
These the follow up T-mobile orders we’ve been waiting for?
https://ir.polarpower.com/investors/press-releases/press-release-details/2018/Polar-Power-Receives-75-Million-in-Purchase-Orders-For-Telecom-Market-Backup-Power-Systems/default.aspx
Well the sp is now well below the strike price of all those options they were granted a number of months back so there is that incentive.
Ugh.
Below the 200 day ma.
And another last second sell at the close to do it.
Hoping this bounces off the 200 day ma and then snaps back up to 6. We’ll see. But as you say, this takes little volume to make it move.
I Hadn’t thought of that but a temporary delay im ordeds was the effect of the storms last year. But you think that’s really the driver and not just low volume technical drift? This isn’t exactly a sell off these past number of days with < 10k shares traded most days. There just aren’t any buyers right now.
In the end we need earnings in the next two quarters. If they deliver, it won’t stay down here long.
Thanks a lot for the detailed analysis. This was really good.
I know we’re all guessing, but what are you thinking they could do bottom line this quarter? I’m figuring they do hit 7-7.5 million in sales. But the bigger question in my mind is margins. If they are going to get to the 10-12 cents a quarter necessary to justify this going into double digits, then the margins are indeed going to have to get back to something better (as well as showing that their new fixed costs due to oversees sales infrastructure actually does something.)
Well... bought more today. Hope I don’t regret it. Technicals don’t look good but betting on earnings doing well in a couple months/ a new pr before then.
I’m now quite excited about the current quarter even. Based on the past relationships magic between backlog and the following quarter’s sales as well as the relationship between sales+change in backlogs and the next quarters sales, Q3 could hit $9 million. And they haven’t been running a second shift for no reason either which suggests a substantial increase as well.
Assuming they can keep in control the fixed cost growth, we may be in for a very nice earnings report in a few months.
Around there have been my loose calculations as well. They need to get to 8 million or so sales per quarter while keeping in control of fixed expenses. If the relationship between backlog and sales holds, then we may be there by q4.
Yeah, the value now is no based on current earnings for sure. If you want to be somewhat conservative for a growing company and assign a 20 P/E ratio, then the current price requires about $0.08 per share quarterly earnings. So the fact that we are at what we are is that there is already a considerable amount of expectations of improved earnings built into the price. And I think this is a race on how quickly they can do it. Are they going to still be earning 2 cents a share 2-3 quarters from now? Or they going to start earning 8-12 cents?
Yeah, I guess the initial response has mostly been meh.
Probably true on the small investors. But in March and April it moved up a lot out of the 4s into the current 6-6.4 range on quite low volume. While I don’t know what will happen tomorrow, I’m hoping it breaks this resistance.
Who knows of this er is sufficient to do so, but if it breaks out of the current resistance of about $6.40, there is little in the way until $7.50 or even $8.50.
http://schrts.co/9hqBXH
Well they did have the PR in June about first initial orders of the 3rd tier one carrier (t-mobile). That might show up as growth in backlogs either as of end of June or as a mention of where it sits now as of earnings call.
I’m more concerned right now about them showing they are getting their margins back up/the big growth in overhead costs translates into something. Because their growing sales will isn’t turning into positive earnings thus far.
Well they did mention on the past earnings call about how some people were asking them to supply the whole tower and that they were working with that. You’re right this sounds like a bump that they originally had not intended. But it does open up additional revenue streams to be the one that co tracts that whole effort.
Also of note is the opening up of a subsidiary entity. Unless there is some requirement for that in Namibia, I have to imagine that this is because thy see this servicing other countries in the region as well. Nabibia is a pretty small country population wise.
POLAR POWER ENTERS WIRELESS INFRASTRUCTURE MARKET IN NAMIBIA, AFRICA & RECEIVES INITIAL $0.8 MILLION PURCHASE ORDER
https://ir.polarpower.com/investors/press-releases/press-release-details/2018/Polar-Power-Enters-Wireless-Infrastructure-Market-in-Namibia-Africa--Receives-Initial-08-Million-Purchase-Order-from-Mobile-Telecommunications-Limited-to-Construct-New-Cell-Sites-Across-Namibia/default.aspx
Let’s hope there is some actual legit earnings this quarter then. Eventually they are going to have to print something. Not just a continued story.
So nothing happened today, did it? We just for some reason had the bottom fall out in the middle of the day on low volume?
So other than someone trying to manipulate this thing, is there any reason for why this almost always has a small sell at the bid in the final seconds of trading?
That’s honestly my biggest worry right now. Great product, rock solid balance sheet, great sales growth potential. Just between lower prices, much more sales overhead and seemingly a need for more customization R&D, are they not actually able to turn profitable anytime soon?
I’m way overweighted on this one, as I think it’s worth the risk. But that is the big risk in my mind. A quarter of solid earnings rather than just more sales and sale losses, I think would go a long way to having this thing march upwards and quickly.
There is a limit to the old maxim of what we lose in margin we make up in volume. They do need to show that they are going to get to positive earnings soon.
Even at a price of $6, with a 20 P/E ratio, that’s already building in a return to $0.075 per share per quarter. (Less if you want it back out the cash on balance sheet). But regardless, for this to move much higher, we need earnings.
Someone with a large position who was waiting for a time to cash out might have also used this as an opportunity to do so. Tough to sell over 100k shares when daily trading volume is usually really light.
Well that close today was a bunch of bs. Some definite games being played here.
This is all low volume. It’s not a massive sell off. Just not enough new/additional buying.
Due to the breaking out from prior resistance yesterday and hitting a new 52 week high, it’s likely pola just hit the radar on a lot of people’s screans. So this may be some new longs as well, even if only for a swing trade.
Things just got interesting in a good way. There’s really no strong resistance on the chart until the mid 7s.