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Yeah, so much for hearing something “very soon”. Just another manifestation of you really can’t have confidence in anything they say.
But if you could keep all of us up to date on anything you see on your visit that would be greatly appreciated.
At mid 4s this probably at least still a hold. But the prospects of this hitting $10 in a year or two out looks less likely than it did 6 months ago. Kicking myself now that I didn’t lighten up last summer in the low 6s.
Looks like we’re going to test a new 52 week low.
And even to justify $4.50 then need to be making 6-8 cents a quarter. Something that looks at least 2-3 quarters away from doing (if they don’t fumble again).
Thanks. That’s all helpful.
Was your friend abke to get a response to the question on why margins were falling on bulk orders if demand is indeed so high?
Thanks for that tidbit. If they were only running at 45% capacity in q4, how does that reconsile with their 8.3 mill quarter and their stated target of 12-15 mil per quarter? We going to have some pull back in Q1? And did they give any indication that their list of problems were at all fixed in Q1 or is this more hope that eventually they will do it next quarter? Maybe you don’t have answers to those questions. But any insights are greatly appreciated.
Also of note, per looking up in a Bloomberg terminal right now:
1. The Roth analyst cut his price target to $5 from $6, though no change in projected sales or bottom line is in there. So don’t know if there is a data delay.
2. While I can’t find a report anywhere, it states that the Think Equity analyst reaffirmed an $8 target as of today.
Back to these bs games. But this kind of thing gets overwhelmed if the company actually starts delivering.
On those grounds, this was the call I felt most negative about thus far. They seem to be flailing around without figuring out how to get the basics working yet.
Until they show that they can improve margins/keep their costs under control l, backlog isn’t going to do anything.
How many quarters has it been now that they say they expect margins to improve 1-2 quarters out? And then nothing materializes and they have new excuses. And now they already downplaying any expectation for Q1 or even Q2. We have to wait for 2H.
Sorry. Should have been p/e 15 = $6.18 and p/e 20 = 8.24
So estimating a target right now. Lest assume they in the next year hit $12 mil a quarter (low end of their range). Let’s day that sg&a does go up “a couple points” so that’s about $2.9 mil per quarter. And they said they were targeting 35% gross margins.
So $12 * .35 - $2.9 = $1.3 *.8 for income tax = $1.04
Divided by 10.1 mil shares and that’s $.103 per quarter bottom line.
On an annual basis with a P/E ratio of 15 that’s $5.76. With a p/e of 20 that’s $7.69.
While both of these are higher than current share price it’s becoming less apparent that this is a great deal. Unless thy move their margins over 35% or can control their operating expenses better, then they are o pay going to be around their IPO price as a fair valuation even when they finally get near their production capacity.
Am I missing something with this?
It appears that this is again part of the perpetual extension of when they are finally supposed to deliver. They cant get their production working while also spending a ton on international sales infrastructure and that’s mostly been a money drain thus far. Despite also saying margins are going to improve they never do. I think this stock is dead until they actual prove they can do that. Right now it’s just more talk.
So any guess on what this does tomorrow? I’ve been surprised before.
And while there wasn’t any disaster remarks on the cc, that was not particularly encouraging either.
I can’t be the only one thinking every quarter they give us some story about how the next couple will be better. Q4 was supposed to have not only the engine discount but higher volume. And they still can’t hit 30% margins. And now we have to worry about cash burn. At some point patients with this company is going to come to an end.
Wel top line was closer to top of their previous range. But margins bad again and operating expenses growing too quickly so still not profitable. Plus cash burn is now an worry with only $5.5 mil cash on hand.
We’ll see what they say on the CC but so far this is not looking good.
Yeah, I read that. Thanks for posting.
But even in that the analyst was projecting $35 mil sales for 2019. That translates to $8.75 mil per quarter or only modestly higher than they are guiding for Q4. So the view is either that sales flatline for a year or there is an implication that Q1 pulls back a bit.
So if they report decent bottom line for Q4, and they suggest in the cc that sales are only going up from here, I think that will be a “beat”.
We’ll see. Fingers crossed that they don’t disappoint this time.
Well the two things I’m looking for are:
1. .05-.07 earnings for q4. The engines you mention should be helping the margin and they have stated in past calls that around 6 million in quarterly sales is where efficiencies hit and they improve margins. If they in contrast come in with only a penny or two then it really hurts their credibility that they can actually achieve a bottom line. If 8+ mil can’t get you anything, what’s it going to take?
2. Evidence that Q1 > Q4. Some people may still be thinking that Q4 was just some catch up for bungling Q3 and we’re going to dip in sales again in Q1. This is the view that the one Roth analyst still officially projects. If they indeed show Q1 to be greater than 8.5 mil in sales then that’s going to be seen as an upward revision. And the 8-8.4 topline in Q4 plus hopefully the 5-7 cents earnings bottom line would both be beats on that one projection of the “street”. Hopefully bribing in more interest.
So while it’s great sales have risen thus far, they’ve dropped the ball so many times, that I’m stull worried about these things not happening even though they should. With the macro environment getting more iffy, they might be running out of time to get things moving this cycle.
What would you be looking for Re: q1 to make this thing run? And assuming they do hit their previous top line guidance, does q4 bottom line matter? I tend to think so, as one of the hold ups on this is their failure to prove they can be profitable. It’s always stories about margins improving in the future that never seem to materialize.
Earnings out the 26th. Guess they are waiting to the last minute on this one.
If we haven’t gotten an announcement for an earnings call date yet, then that probably means it’s not happening this week, right? I seem to recall they usually do it a week before. Or am I wrong on that?
That explains it then. Thanks for posting.
Waiting for them to say when earnings are coming. Fingers crossed.
This finally getting some buying pressure for some reason?
Another small sell at the bid just moments before close.
I hope this is someone manipulating in order to accumulate and not manipulate in order to benefit a short position.
At this point I just want them to prove they can make a solidly profitable quarter work rather than giving us yet another quarter of telling us how things are just around the corner. Their backlog growth is obviously good, but they keep stumbling in execution/letting their expenses grow too quickly.
Seems too coordinated. An attempt at a mini pump and dump?
Had some games going on this afternoon.
So somewhat unrelated question. Im thinking maybe part of the market response to their sales numbers is that so far they haven’t shown this flowing down to the bottom line. Assuming no surprises and they do hit their guided 8 -8.4 mill top line, what are you looking for on the bottom line for q4?
I think this needs to translate to 5-6 cents to be a positive response. If they come in less than that, then it’s more promises of improving margins in the future that never come to be/ them not keeping in check their sg&a.
But if this quarter hits 5-6 cents, thnthat bodes well for hitting 10 cents when they hopefully get to the 10-12 million in sales quarters that hopefully are coming soon and then the current share price starts looking under valued.
This constant drift downwards is getting tough to watch as the rest of the market rallies. Really hope they have something good to tell us in a few weeks.
Yes. Thanks for the always insightful write ups.
Just wish this thing would get some wind under its sail.
This is some really great stuff. And look forward to hopefully hearing more on this in the earnings call.
But also hope that the talk of needing more capital doesn’t come until there is some proof of profitability and the s/p pops a bit. Really wouldn’t want a dilutive raise down here below the IPO price.
Well, let’s hope they give some color in the earnings call on being able to do that. Better not be another “potential is building” but no concrete movement on the bottom line.
What do you think about timing now in their ability to get to say $0.10 per share botttom line each quarter? I’m reasonably confident that they will eventually get there. But even at $5 s/p, a lot of that is already baked in. And I’m increasingly worried that the macro environment is going to not cooperate sooner than later and pola will lose the race before the next recession.
Not to get too much into politics, but their is a lot of damaging or at least briskly policy currently and forward looking. Monetary policy mess ups, trade wars, future shut down possibilities, and then as 2020 gets closer, businesses and investors will start also thinking more about the possibilities of the democrats’ versions of damaging or risky economic policy coming down the pipeline (eg more taxes, more regulations, and maybe even nationalization of much of the healthcare sector). Add it all together, a recession might land sometime 12-24 months from now. We’re already in the late part of the business cycle even before talking policy risk. Employment gains are going to have to decelerate with such low unemployment and corporate earnings are going to at least take a breather.
So have your thoughts on Pola changed re: when they could hit that benchmark? I used to think by Q1 earnings it would be clear. Now I’m thinking Q2 at least. They still haven’t shown they can translate anything into the bottom line.
That’s what I’m hoping for. $10 million or so rev, getting the gross margin close to 40% and keeping fixed expenses in check.
We’ll see.
One thing that I hope comes out in the earnings call is roughly what the current max sustainable quarterly production capacity now is with the new facility. Is is $10 mill, $15mill...?
Some idea of that should give us an intermediate revenue target to be thinking about.
But with that said, revenues were modestly higher than the Roth analyst had them pegged to be for the quarter.
It shows they are likely to do at least $8 million a quarter at least for the next couple. They said the $16 mill backlog will be mostly delivered in next 6 months.
So $8m * .38 margin = $3.04 mill
Assume slight increase in SG&A + R&D of $2.3 mill
So that’s $0.74 mill * .75 for post tax and get $0.55mill
With 10.2 million shares that’s $0.054 per share.
On an annual basis and applying a 20 P/E ratio that’s $4.35 s/p
So essentially, the market is already pricing in their current rate announced today.
Any meaningful appreciation is going to require proof that they either grow revenues more and/or expand their margins/keep their fixed costs from growing much more.
While this is progress, it’s nothing earth shattering new imo. Still going to have to wait.
Released estimate of q4 revenues and updated backlog. No botttom line though.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/polar-power-reports-preliminary-2018-140000965.html
Pretty sleepy these days. Anything new happening?