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down below 6c.......
almost time to buy!
reflection:
only one year ago,the price was 18c,and plenty of longs roaming here.when longs are here no more,it is time to buy.
headwind.....
from 10q:
"While the number of pallets sold during fiscal year 2021 increased by approximately 16%, there was decrease in the dollar volume for pallet sales in fiscal year 2021 from fiscal year 2020 primarily due to the pricing structure within the product mix."
what saved the day was the saving from q/q/ reduced cost of 400-500 basis points.
thanks....
yes and i didn't see it until today.i got a feeling this thing is likely be down to 80c(pe=6.5) in the next 3 months.million dollar question becomes is it good time to buy?80%(yes) vs 20%.
ps-cost of sale improvement of 500 basis point,is a positive trend going forward.
down to 90c.....
million dollar question:can it do 4c+ eps??without tax benefits that is.
ps-my gut says 50:50.
in 4 more weeks,er would tell us......
how well is the post 2020 business model working?Or can it sustain its $2.7 million+ revenue momentum?? My odds is 75%(yes) vs 25%,can the pe go ballistic from a base of 3(=30c/2.5c*4)???i believe very likely so.
another positive step forward.......
"it will resume trading its common stock on the OTCQB Venture Market Place ("OTCQB") after meeting all OTCQB reporting guidelines."
it is amazing what new management have done in the last 9 months,as it regained all its lost ground and more since 2019.i would not hesitate to say the company is in its best position since inception in 2017,when the stock was priced around $6.0.will it regain its old highest price??i think so if it can maintain the same discipline and revenue growth in the next 2 years.wooowwww.
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/SMKC/news/Smoke-Cartel-Uplists-to-OTCQB-Exchange?id=274868
a good sign.......
"smart mirror" on or off????
ps-almost ready to pick up few shares @6.5c.
For Volatility Traders, November Election Will Be A Career "Maker Or Breaker"......
i keep it simple and aim at:
long-
buy assets likely to do well in 2022-2023
short-
sell assets likely to do badly in 2022-2023
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/volatility-traders-november-election-will-be-career-maker-or-breaker
sounded like a purge to me........
lefties:
get rid of MAGA crowd and no rules.
righties:
get rid of all liberals and make rules.
unless there is a great compromise my friend,you missed a step that history called "revolution and war". i will bet you this is not out of picture in this once great land,and that is why stock market can be had cheap in a time of great uncertainty.
the problem is the knock on effect of "revolution and war": human toll is heavy and destruction is the end game.
explosive and toxic mixes:
economic poverty of the 90%
technology replacing humans
nonstop US debt to GDP level toward 200%+(never been seen and done in human history by any nation or empire)
no solution other than finger pointing
US constitution hijacked by politicians
lost in 5G race and the land to become a desolate land
.....
.....
bottom line:
what is the "haircut" premium going forward?my worst bet is 40% from the recent hi,or $7*60%=$4.2 for cliffy.
Venezuela model:
stock become a hedge without a total collapse.
I may start selling puts for beer money soon.....
$5.0p:
nov 20 26c(premium) 59 days left
dec 20 36c 87 days
jan 21 43c 115 days
apr 21 67c 206 days
and
if it blows up,i get the chance to built a portfolio and add to it,all at below $5.0 cost.
objective outlook on 2020-2022 clf by Fitch.......
https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-assigns-first-time-b-rating-to-cleveland-cliffs-outlook-negative-08-07-2020
"Rating concerns include CLF's high exposure to the automotive market, which Fitch expects to be negatively impacted by the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, resulting in significantly lower shipments. Fitch does not anticipate steel shipments recovering to 2019 levels until 2022. Fitch expects total debt/EBITDA to be significantly elevated in 2020 but to trend lower over the ratings horizon as the economy and steel fundamentals recover. Fitch forecasts CLF to have adequate liquidity and the company has no material maturities until 2024. However, Fitch views this as partially offset by expectations for significantly lower EBITDA in 2020 and high interest and pension expenses."
ps-again,i believe the window of buying cheap stock had just started and likely would last until election(post???),for anyone wants to go "hog wild" on stocks.
small volume and it just hit 35c.........
since 9/13(er) the perception seem changed(from pos??? to pos$??) and valuation followed(up 300%+).is 2q revenue of $2.7 million just an one time event become the million dollar going forward?
my believe:
the new 2020 business model worked and should continue to work,likely within a range of -15% to +15%,that is revenue of $2.3 to $3.1 million for q3,not bad with any measures.
or
eps=3c(12c annualized) making the forward looking pe=3.
my hope:
if q revenue can be normalized around $2.75 million with 20%+ net income,this stock's pe is way too low as a momentum stock(pos$$?) to be perceived very soon.a 3q revenue confirmation of $2.75 million would likely drive the pe much higher than 3.
the name of the game on this investment:
"sit tight" for the next 2 years;according to jess livermore(reminiscence of a stock operator),this is a value stock ,and not a price stock.
or
big money can be had to those just "sit tight".
volatility is on the rise and clf is down 13% so far.......
plenty of bargains to be had when this continued into election,just may be and even better,into post-election where there is a draw.
"Economic values are out of window in a politically+central banking induced crisis."
and
likely be cheap and cheaper as fears set in and liquidity dried up.
from pink to QB in the work......
OTCQB certification-
https://backend.otcmarkets.com/otcapi/company/financial-report/258013/content
Annual Report-OTCQB-Annual Report,previously filed under pink-
https://backend.otcmarkets.com/otcapi/company/financial-report/258225/content
another important step needed to get back the lost ground.nice work.
a trading idea....
buy at 41c+,sell before the ER.75% a money maker.
picked up few shares below 10c.....
this stock is under radar and cheap.
i be happy with a 5 bagger......
next q,can it do eps=5c?i think so.
few macro bad news would do it.......
my move is $5- and load up big time for 2025+(either option leap or equity).
ps-october to election,is my window of opportunity.
wwwoooowwwwww..................
ask 52.99c bid 32c.anyone knew what was going on??i am definitely clueless but loving it.
uhoh......
i thought there was no reverse split.
from 8k:
The second matter upon which the stockholders voted was the proposal to approve and authorize our Board of Directors to implement a reverse split of our outstanding Common Stock, at its discretion, in a ratio ranging from 1:2 to 1:15, which matter was approved. The tabulation of the votes (both in person and by proxy) was as follows:
-----For------------------Against-----------------Abstention
23,573,298-----------1,068,695-----------------32,836
all in preparation for a secondary offering,primed and set in motion.
will it do 10:1 rs to make it to nasdaq??
$6.0 coming and more likely............
before you see $63.0 any time soon. 99% probable.
Sam is opening up for new wallets........
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/innovative-food-holdings-present-ld-120000287.html
for the new brave:
"For those interested in having a meeting with IVFH, please contact David Scher at david@ldmicro.com or visit https://ld500.ldmicro.com/ to register for the event."
and
for the old farts:
still no CC.
my take:
looking for new investors for "expansion" money of the hot "E-commerce",100%+ explosive and awesome growth story,everything is all good,.........,and expect the stock under Sam stewardship is going to the moon SOON.
yes,float count went....
from 3.5 million shares to 6.8 million shares,and the convertible NO MORE.
am i dreaming and another possibility........
update(from my model) says 2q 2020:
revenue $950k+ from $717k+
net income $155k+ from $53k+.
AGAIN,the BIG ASSUMPTION:
the convertible was paid off by internally generated cash,100% and no less.
good news again......
from the updated 1q 2020 ER:
During the six-month period ending June 30, 2020 the Company repaid $75,000 in principal and accrued interest to Tangiers Global LLC.
During July 2020, the Company repaid the remaining principal and accrued interest in full to Tangiers Global LLC.
my past posting/remark update:
from
"ps-a smart move by the ceo to cleanout skeletons in the closet,thus he starts with a clean slate,with almost all legacy issues decoupled going forward."
to
"ps-....................,with ALL legacy issues decoupled going forward."
one great possibility:
assuming no external help and all paid with internally generated cash,2q net profit need to be $150k+ to cover the bill of now closed convertible liability.No more dilution at outrageously low prices.Kudo to the ceo.
from the company latest pr.......
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/SMKC/news/AUDITED-Smoke-Cartel-Inc-Annual-Report---December-31-2019?id=272221
material:
These audited financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2019 no longer have a going concern qualification.
After a very challenging year, we have pivoted our business to one that is both sustainable and profitable.(may be less 100% material)
Smoke Cartel now partners with over 50 supplier distributors to offer its customers access to one of the widest ranges of smoking pipes and accessories in the industry.
ps-my favorite is the last one,and all about leveraging the inventory,more the better so to speak.
how:
pre-2020 inventory level was $750k-$1 million,self carry;
post-2020 defacto 3rd party level is likely be $100k+(average per supplier) x 50 or $5 million+.This Amazon like model works and growth come from each new accretive supplier plus new products from all suppliers,new and old.
or
huge multiplier expansion(more revenue) exchange for gross profit erosion,it is a good and calculated way to wager.
stock behavior changed......
more bullish than bearish.
according to jesse livermore of "reminiscences of a stock operator":
buy above 40c
sell at 30c
pure ticker tape play,is his method right(high probability)??
ps-what do you think mr dickmo?
2019 annual report redone and audited........
Key changes from the unaudited report:
impairment 1 added: -$123k
impairment 2 added: -$773k
eps(loss) of -12c(audited) vs -9c(old)
convertible bond update:
During May 2020, the Company issued 981,873 shares of Common Stock to Tangiers Global LLC upon their conversion of $19,500 of outstanding convertible debt.
During July 2020, in two transactions the Company issued 2,228,772 shares of Common Stock to Tangiers Global LLC upon their conversion of $25,408 of outstanding convertible debt.
subsequently
the current shares count is 25.9 million shares,about 3.3 million shares jump from 12/31/2019.
ps-a smart move by the ceo to cleanout skeletons in the closet,thus he starts with a clean slate,with almost all legacy issues decoupled going forward.
again you are always more optimistic than I was......
they knew they fu*kup more than a year ago,and still wagered on the "smart mirror" and stayed the course of one-trick-only-pony,a sad and trouble sign of weakness(mental? or physical/technical constraints??) when it had liquidity/resources,and time.
now:
not much time
not much liquidity/resources
fear should set in soon
as an investor,judging by track record minus hopefulness,increase the odds of the wager thus avoid costly blunders most of the times.again,this one was obvious where "a landquish crow wants to be a peacock".
best case scenario of my wager.......
company stock down to the pennies,and picked up by an experience/capable product team,for its savagable value: not management team,not Amy,not "smart mirror",for the box store connections only.
for those still hopeful of a new widget:
with $2 million cash,1/5-1/10 of the amount spent on the "smart mirror" yet-to-end-misadventure,odds says your delusion will end soon and in tears.The company is done,a buyout on the cheap is the only way out and a long long shot.
How a copycat think/do trying to become the next "Apple"..........
fallacies of the company and flags investors ignored.
give away #1: buy-in thru consultants,pr,"big talk"....instead of spending time and effort learning the needs of targeted consumers and how to fill smartly(with a device) of their ever changing ecosystem/life-style......
give away #2: we all have dreams,the difference is how realistic is it from the view of your targeted consumers? How many "smart mirrors" were randomly installed and honest feedbacks collected?
Give away #3: quality/character(of the management) required going from a copycat to inventor/leader/originator,does the management have the market savvy,business connection,know how?and when thing gone wrong is it willing to take sacrifice,draconian belt tightening,and squeeze every penny for the fight of next day?
plus
investors' illusion: a broker/agent can simply transformed itself to become the next Apple without going thru "hell and back" is the biggest folly.
fallacies and folly are deadly mixes and the seed was sow before the "deadly mirrors" trap even started.
price of blunder/folly for the investors:
A total wipeout or "3-6c" bet in 2021??
disclosure:
touching only after "draconian cut".blood on the street so to speak and willingness for the cause.
How to save capc from the abyss from a smart cookie........
from mdimport:
- immediately stop production of the smart mirror
- layoff everyone, except the manager, and reduce salary to slow cash burn
- sale of the smart mirror manufacturing rights + any inventory
- get royalties on the sale of smart mirrors from the buyer of the manufacturing rights
- end all production in China
- develop a new US based product line
hard data point:
sg&a only dropped $50k(q2 vs q1),excluding a $200k impairment in q2.The "smart mirror" dream is still whole.OMG.
latest:
2 q have gone by,no action.At current burn rate.,2-3q are left before bk.Again,the inaction of the management is uncalled for,and this behavior is totally self-inflicted,at the shareholders expense.ouccchhhh.
Bottom line......
5-6c is more likely than 10-12c.Looking back: what a waste on time/money(for investors) and resources(for the company),a delivery of a "BIG ZERO" so far and ended up fighting for its life.
capc insanity is defined as:
by doing the same pr over and over,and expecting a different operational result.
what a shame:
you could be gotten out at
30c 2 years ago
20c 1 year ago
10c 1 month ago
if not
5-6c in few more months(if not weeks)
disclosure:
since the inception of the "smart mirror",a strong believer it was a total blunder and likely to cost the company a lot.My latest guess,is as low as 3-4c before the end of the year,as bk rumors abound.
a bit subtle......
income tax paid:
3q $490k
4q ($600K) benefit
and
without the benefit:
4q eps is 3c,not 5c.
no proposal for a reverse stock split....
another good sign: Sam has to do the "heavy lifting" without access to "easy money" at your expense.
hopeful vs what is stored ahead.....
let say the e-commerce doubled to $15 million in 2021,with a combined quarterly revenue over $20.0 million,can it generate a profit? It would be difficult:"not much meat on the bone" on the E-commerce side,as it outgrew "chef-to-chef" core segment.Under the newer model,company be making pennies on the dollar and struggle endlessly without margins expansion,cost for being late entry into a market of competition galore.
Early Amazon lost money for years as it crushed competition with "unlimited cheap money" and "super high operating efficiency",all during a period of no serious competition(before Walmart got its act together).So what I am saying,for Sam to outgrew the E-commerece,he needs a lot more ammunition(money),and most likely thru
1 reverse share split and uplist
2 2nd offering
3 expand quickly for scale
4 "take no prisoners" or being a price leader in the land of giants
then the question becomes "where the current shareholders fit in and outcomes?"
outcome 1:
next Amazon in the making? 10% odds.
outcome 2:
Mr. Dick predication is right all alone: a loser consist of bunch less losers companies. 90% odds.
with Sam being on the edge of the abyss........
hopefully this would force Pappas to be the adult in the room and start guiding Sam to implement "heavy lifting" ASAP,so the company can breakeven in 2021,before more black swan event hits.
heavy lifting defined:
2020 cost structure reduction of 5-10%
2021 cost structure reduction of 3-7%
and
everything is on the table.
if not,looking and no touching.
fixes can be simple........
but all in execution,sacrifices,and commitment.
historic net income(% of revenue):
2017 11%(actual)
2018 3%,when I got off the train.
2019 0%
(his expansion plan in full swing)
1q,20 -10%
2q -14%
recommended map for fixes:
3q -10%(of revenue)
4q -5%
2021 0%
2022 +5%
2023 +10%(back to pre-2018 norm)
again,sg&a need to be 80% of the cut since the company has much control over it.Balance should come from better product mix thus increases the margin issues,plus any savings from all areas of operation: salary cut for the top officers is a good place to start.
no-no:
uplisting,2nd stock offering,and no fixes on the broken model.
better than my guess......
loss of $1.6 million vs loss of $3-$4 million of my estimate.Specialty food is in the trash bin,can e-commerce quickly make up the volume and with much needed improvement in margin become the million dollar question??
few footnote-
company is leveraged up y/y:
total asset $20.3(2020) vs $20.8(2019)
total liability $14.1(2020) million vs $9.9 million(2019)
or
combined debt(long/short) is around $9 million,using 4.5% rate,the quarterly payment expense is $90k.
a/r reserve is up:
this q 14%=(316/2187)
12/31/19 3%=(95/3405)
eps model going forward(using the latest q matics):
eps -14%=100%(revenue)-72%(cost)-41%(s&ga)-1%(interest)
net income(in million) update/guess:
q1,20 -$3.5
q2 -$1.6
q3 -$1.25e
q4 -$0.75e
2020 -$7.0e
2021 -$3.0e
2022 -$1.5e
2023 -$0.75e
2024 break even
unless Sam can bend the Sg&a/cost curves down to pre-2018 level.
Your are being warned by Sam......
From NT-10Q day before the annual meeting:
(3) Is it anticipated that any significant change in results of operations from the corresponding period for the last fiscal year will be reflected by the earnings statements to be included in the subject report or portion thereof? Yes
If so: attach an explanation of the anticipated change, both narratively and quantitatively, and, if appropriate, state the reasons why a reasonable estimate of the results cannot be made.
The registrant believes that, as compared to the prior year, its revenues for the quarter will decrease and the registrant will report a net loss for the quarter.
my take:
"significant change in results of operations" and "a net loss for the quarter" likely would be a loss between $3-$4 million.oooucccchhhh.