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agreed....
absolutely and turned smart money next round.
glad to see....
you got out in one piece.hope for your next pick,the quality of management is much higher than ivfh.best luck to your money.
my wild guesses.....
is Sam leaving the ship?or a buyout/takeover by Pappas??
my mindset......
bias more on fundamental/value than price.i hope either way wins on our capc wagers going forward.
i am also seeing the "bubble effect" among....
the otc stocks.e.g. omtk,canof,capc,nmxs were the latest otc players that i track.
only thing i knew was...
nmxs twitter account has been suspended!
glad to see it is working for you......
"sit tight" and be rewarded big time!
glad to see it is working for you......
"sit tight" and be rewarded big time!
$$ oem market and more $$.........
fton is hot and its mc is 6+ billions.
the latest fad: riding recumbent bikes in groups connected to social media thru smart mirrors.
https://www.onepeloton.com/shop/bike/bike-package?gclid=CjwKCAiAudD_BRBXEiwAudakX7kFSejRqWbV3WOD6OBaub2R_xQjAmXoYk5v-Ih6f1j6G9OAHifgBRoCtPcQAvD_BwE
old valuation:
legacy 5c
smart mirror platform 2c
management -2c
net 5c
new valuation:
legacy 5c
oem/thai sourcing 5c
smart mirror platform 2c
management -1c
net 11c
oem market(of the smart mirror) to the bikers may just save the day!i say 33%+ chance.
can capc become a takeover target by a fton-copy-cat??and how likely???i say 10% chance.
ps-the required multi-year investment/struggle to configure a workable supply chain,is what makes the company interesting,and its ability to scale up the volume for oem plus low risk of this agent/broker operation,is what makes the company worth my wager.again,this dog has too many fleas and at your own risk.
ps2-my time horizon("sit tight") has increased from 2q to 4q.
buy below 11c....
if i say more,my posting most likely be deleted again and again.ouuucchhh.
613k traded so far......
someone wants bad! it broke 5c highs since the new all time lows of 2.34c,will it break 6c new highs soon??i believe 50%/50% it will and soon.
macro on the pure cannabis today....
players i follow:
tlry up 3%
hexo up 1.5%
acb up 3%
apha up 2%
cron up .8%
...
...
...
this sector is on a roll(back from hell),and as it continues,will smkc stock price correlate and benefit big time with it?? i believe 75% likely and with a multiple return in 2-3 years time horizon.
if you are right.....
you save 3c.if you are wrong,you lose the opportunity of 3x-10x return.
my take:.
odd in your favor(autopsy) 66%-75%.
i am a bottom feeder....
hanging around the "sick bed" is what i do.as you know,i hung around this pos for 3+ years and started trading recently with cost basis of @5.3c.i believe a better question is: can it get off the "sick bed" and offers 3-10x return within 2-3 years??and what are the odds???
my take:
odds(not dead) 33%
return 3x-10x
bonus(trading) 1.5x
ps-my last patient got off the "sick bed" was smkc,as it climbed on to its nascent e-platform for its survival,and it worked,back from the dead(was down to 1c).
whoops...
blank page.
agreed....
we have a winner here!
ticker says bearish.......
bid 3c
ask 3.5c
i bid 3.5c and got it for 3.35c,definitely bearish.some big whale wants out at any price.ooouuuchhhhhh, just maybe "NO bid @0.00000000001" is coming up!
steady....
and keep adding for the next few years! a money maker.
"the bottom is NO Bid x $0.0001"......
where were you the last 2-3 years when the price were 3x-10x higher and longs were in "fatal attraction" with the mirrors????
i have no illusion that things are not rotten down the core,but between paying 4c- vs 15c+ for a project destined to flop(please check my old postings) and cost the company plenty,i waited and i definitely got it right so far.
with body bag waiting ahead,the million dollar question is,will the management continue its suicidal charge?? i believe not,this definitely worth 4-,but no guarantee of eventual 5x-10x.again,and again,the i am bullish of the platform,and not the mirror.
ps-picked up few more shares @BIG 3c."when it rains,it pours".
at 4c or less.......
i am bullish.i am playing with fire and may just get burned liked the past longs(those who believed the smart mirror and paid 15c+ for their stocks),but at these low prices i believe risk adjusted reward is just too attractive.again,use the money you can effort to lose without losing sleep over it.
ps-i reserve the right to dump it above 6c.
don't know what the future holds for the company......
i do know without major change and "right" the company,it is done.this this why i believe the management likely to change or be done in 2-3 more quarters.
wooowww...
just picked up few shares for 3.9c.chieeep.it is my assumption that smart mirror platform can be salvaged by simply adding 3rd party smart surface mounted items.again,without the current management,the company definitely worth more.
breakdown and estimated intrinsic value:
legacy biz 5c
e commerce 2c
management -2c
or
25% discount at 3.9c
number of participating rural hospitals suppose to grow by 20%+ according to the ptec presentation......
at present,topline down 20%+,a number defies expectation big time, the only reason i got out.again,i do not know why the diabolical outcome,the million dollar question: can things change on a dime??
thanks for your write-up on 6/6/20......
indicating likely reasons for the 'Caveat Emptor' of the company,i am adding my position and taking advantage of public's fear not buying a company with pe=1.
bottom line.....
sam needs to go before he drive company to insolvency,what is pappas next move as unavoidable nightmare set in and time is short?or pappas may have to admit he fu**up on this one and have to bail(greatest risk 25%).
in term of fundamental......
it is simple to see where the problem lies.it is inelastic nature of sg&a(blowing up) as revenue decline.
past sg&a/revenue:
2017 22%(average)
2018 27%
2019 28%
2020:
q1 35%(impairment excluded)
q2 41%
q3 40%
this number is going to the moon,at the expense of solvency of the company.
estimator for q4:
-$2 million or -14%=100%-40%(sg&a)-74%(cost),estimated revenue of $15 million.
wooowwwww or ooouuuucchhhhh....
459k shares @4c ask. just got my ass kicked,i paid 5.3c for my first batch.ouchhh.
am i crazy/stupid:
35k @3c bid is mine.
will this be a start of money making adventure or a nightmare in the making???? my hope: 20%(upside) vs 75% and the payout can be up to 10:1,i like it.
my take:
contract extension to the management is a slap to the face of the long,and they are bailing out BIG TIME.blood on the street so to speak.
hemorrhaging at $1.5+ million rate per q.........
just simply crushed all the hope and the perception of a staple growth e-commerce "amazon/walmart-like-platform" of the long.........of course we have suckers born every day(plus the robinhood crowd),sam is checked and be fighting for his pos life everyday. from the investors' point,sam is unable to deliver,and now it is too obvious his vision/touch is all liability and risk. again,it is time to move on before a total crash and burn of your wallet.
not a good day nor a good quarter,emperor has no cloth.sad.sad.sad.
new management and new business model........
has finally been proven it can work profitably and consistently! a gift to shareholders!! quarterly revenue of around $2.0 million(i was hoping a bit more) should be the norm going forward,with net income between $250k to $500k each q.everything seems to be falling into proper places,except of my last concern: why is the ceo has not been compensated properly,commensurate with the great progress he has had made so far? more skin in the game by steve would not hurt at all, my only concern left of my dd.
again,so far so good,all thanks to the ceo at the helm,"old dog learning new tricks".
the new business model is not working,a total failure to be exact......
the $1.5+ million loss is ominous and likely be the first nail on the coffin.can sam raise more capital to sustain the near term loses and plug the hole??second nail on the coffin if not.the fixing of shrunk revenue may take longer than what balance can support,the third nail on the coffin.
sam has really outdone shitting on himself and investors this round.i believe the crap is so deep,the company is unlikely to be solvent in 2021.
management are fully vested in the company......
they have every reason to make it work and being benefit the most from its success.the "sleight of hand" to have nmxs spearheading the operation from UM medical center,may have irked some players;on the new front: UM/nmxs payment proposal,layered on top of the physicians service charge,added to the cms bill,is non-orthodox and does not help.
again,one favorable change,would complete the missing piece to the company business model,and thing can change big time.
the issue is topline again and again......
$250k per q,is halve what i am waiting for before jumping back again.i believe covid-19 may have had adversely impacted their operation,and again i am just guessing.
unless there is some clarity on the company future from the management soon,the mc may stay low for quite sometimes.i am just disappointed the ceo has done a very poor job communicating with their investors,a big black mark and liability for exiting the stock.
watching and no touching for many years......
saw price went from 30c+ down to below 6c,and i finally picked up few shares,my first wager ever.
this is what i am hoping to see soon:
1. recognition smart mirror is a lost cause,and its platform is salvageable/reconfigurable with items from 3rd party shippers.(worth 3c more)
2. change of management.(worth 3c more)
again,this pos has enough money for 2-3 more q: change or quick death.
price is right.....
time to buy below 6c!wowwww.
i did not "sit tight"......
when smkc dropped below 3c,i believe it was a buy of the decade(if not life time),and i swapped out nmxs for smkc shares.again,once nmxs revenue tops $500k,i believe the price momentum will be back up again.my max shares position of nmxs was around 650k shares with average cost of 5.7c,and i started my stake since 4/2018: a long and dry journey.
i cashed out some time ago....
due to consistent stagnant topline growth and replace it with smkc.i would jump right back once nmxs topline increased by 20%.
my best hope for the e-commerce......
get all the kinks out,before starting leverage the platform with high value items from 3rd party shippers big time.
a good sign....
someone bought the stock at 10c.
something has to give soon.......
price increase of "white wood" pallets due to skyrocketing lumber price of 100%+ is the wild card.i believe revenue on a per pallet basis(glgi) most likely to revert to historical norm or better,and soon.before next er,now should be a great entry point to buy low as price hovers around 80c again.cheap.
once revenue per plastic pallet is up,dynamic/momentum of the glgi eps can be astonishing.
what i be looking for this coming q......
either
case 1:
loss of $0.5+ million,cash stay flat,debt up another $1+ million.
case 2:
break even,no debt/share increases.
odds:
75%(case 1) vs 25%.