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time to get out now.......
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/04/peloton-pton-to-report-fiscal-q1-2022-earnings-.html
wow......
pe expansion gone from 1 to 16 within a year.will i buy more?no,a bit too frothy for my nerves.
what i am hoping to see next q.......
revenue stay up above $4.0 million(usd) and gross margin between 35-40%.
chicken little no more.......
with a forward pe of 1.33,i am in.wooowwww this stock is super cheeeeep!
correction........
from 8k:
"each Investor purchased 3,125,000 shares of the Company’s common stock for an aggregate of 9,375,000 shares (the “Shares”) from the Company at a price of $0.40 per share."
or
$3.7 million from the new issuance of stock to papas
or
sam got an extension of 1 more year to get the company in order(profitable),how likely would sam to resign if the goal was unmet?? inevitably followed with an implied takeover by papas(ownership of 35%=(9+7)/(36+9)????
or
16% more to go before papas becomes a majority shareholder and sam is out.
so far papas has put up $8.5 million bucks for his participation in the company.while sam continue be in charge,does papas not known sam is the problem all along??
had he not bought the 3 million+ shares recently.....
the stock price would have tanked big time,was papas emotionally attached to the company??
dilemma ahead:
loss of $1 million
no buy,stock down big
buy,stock overpriced
more good money after the bad
meanwhile:
sam continues business as usual,a calamity at work.
papas is on the move.....
his beneficial shares are up to 17.2%.only 32.8% more to go for a majority control,and the million dollar question: will his ego drive him to do it?
if not,the downside can be as low as 20c and soon.
option to raise $5.0 million bucks before collapsing.....
1 lease buyback of property owned(big maybe)
2 dilution of shares
and no more "kick the can down the road".
shitshow delayed 2-3 quarter at best.
what's the difference between "war in afghanistan" and "stop losses of 1 million per q"?
no difference.both needs new management and real commitment to achieve measurable goals,and not just a big slush fund for the benefit of the few.
continuing losses for another 6 to 8 quarters may be too liberal.....
my guess is 1 to 2 quarters,or realization of a likely collapse and death clock countdown might have just started.under heat,i believe sam does not do well.the million dollar question,what would Papas do next if at all??
fix is rather simple......
bend the sg&a curve back down by 5%(from the 33% norm) immediately,but sam has failed to do so in the past 2-3 years.
looking at my checklist before a catastrophic failure(no longer at the 5% odds,10% is more likely):
one down and few more to go.
er is out and the bottom line is.....
a loss of $937k.ooooouccchhhh.
balance sheet:
cash $1.6 million
a/r $2.9
inventory $3.0(down from $3.7 6 months ago)
total current asset $8.0
against
a/p $4.0 million
line of credit $2.0
note payable $2.0
....
....
total current liability $9.5
new issuance of stock becomes a must.my guess is sam needs $5.0 million capital without major restructure or 20 million shares at 20c-25c;without it,the start of the end of a non black swan event(purely man made)??
from nt-10q.....
yes to (3) Is it anticipated that any significant change in results of operations from the corresponding period for the last fiscal year will be reflected by the earnings statements to be included in the subject report or portion thereof?
could my estimate of a loss of $1 million be wrong?? very likely so i believe.
quarter of my business is buy stock that....
is completely written off by investors and dropped down to pennies,and has the potential(i belief) coming back from the dead.the question becomes can ivfh rise from the ashes(at present 75% burnt) and how likely??
factors i am counting on:
1. spending down to last available borrowed pennies;
2. complete management replacement;
3. weeks of uncertainty during this vacuum of leadership;
4. a motivated buyer coming in and pick up the mess.
plus
projection of losses next q:
$1.5 million(85% ashes)
again,the odds happening above is low,a black swan i would call it,most likely it would never occur. i may just be wasting my time and no return,but the beauty of this wager is,if it falls into my lap,my risk reward is asymmetrical.
or
i believe sam have fu**ed so many people,time for him gone is here and soon,and his throne is about to be auctioned of on the cheeeeeeeppppppp!
or
what is papas next move(to get rid of sam)??? simply wait out step 1-3 and act on step 4 above.how likely,i say 5%+.
which one first and bet on.........
new 12-month high above 80c or new low below 25c??we should know before the end of the year.
again......
we have a likely $1.0-$2.0 winner here without being on the nasdaq!
i started buying @30c.......
my last purchase was @87c.i always seem to have good luck "buying on the way up" and i expect next er of eps=4c+/q,and with a 12 month forward pe of 7.6=91/12.
with support at 90c+.....
how likely will the price breaks a buck?? i would guess 75%+ before the earning report,and with a good earning god knows how much more it can go. momentum of this stock is amazing and can not be underestimated: $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$.
wooowwwww........
ask down below 2c-,my price range finally!almost time to add a position: cheap stock and 100% pure speculation.
support at $1.21......
would this hold?if yes,start of a bull run??the million dollar question.
wow...
this baby is on the move again and again,someone wanted bad.will it break a buck soon?i think so,at 75%+ chance.
numbers,numbers,and numbers.....
Total Stockholder Equity
back the napkin projection:
odds of a black swan event before end of the year(i say way more than my original estimate of less than 5%)
4q21-1,000(insolvency and sam is done)
***critical period for papas to gain control or bailout at and below 15c***
3q21 0,000(20+ million new issuance of shares at 15c-20c a must) ***er announcement 11/15/21e ***
2q21 1,000 ***er announcement 8/15/21e ***
(based on the historic quarters,the otcmarket)
1q21 2,191
4q20 3,877
3q20 4,843
2q20 6,329
1q20 7,829
ps-based on the projection,the likelihood of bk/crash odds are increasing and irreversible.again,the core problem is inelastic margin expansion and can never unstuck itself from the quarterly run rate loss of 1.0+ million,regardless of revenue increase.
alligators can survive with only a big meal......
every 6 months and longer. i am glad you are making out well and hope history repeats itself again and again for your ivfh investment.
my strategy:
wait for an improbable black swan event(20% chance),seeing the stock dropped down to 4-5c(down to 10% chance),and add a position of 100k or more. my bet for a 3x-10x return may be down to 5% and less when all said and done.
catches of the last 12 months:
smkc at 3.5c-4c(first 100k),added more at 10c......acquired/sold for 31c.
capc at 3c-4c(first 100k),price shot up to $3.00,i got out above $1.00 and almost wetted my pants many times.
papas made a deal with the devil.....
upon expiration:
acquire 50%+ shares and "sam,fu** off"
or
degenerate down to quick death:
"fu** you" and drive the share prices down to 5c and lower.
or
status quo:
kick the can down the road for the 2 options above at a later date.again,papas is trapped and his "opportunity cost" and "dead money" are high.
ps-i'll be a buyer at 5c: 10%+ chance this year,25% next year,45% the following year,70%........ and i'm in no rush.
just one dynamic seller like Papas would ruined Sam's day........
His dumping could be the black swan event,if there ever was one,so far unexpected by everyone.If old hand like coolhandluke bailed, based purely on calculation,how much more(death by 1000 cuts abuse) would Papas took before he says: fu** you Sam and dumped all his holding.
if you are 75% right or got 3 out of 4 correctly......
the company is royallly fu**ed.again,2021 is when the end is near,and i believe highly probable.
dark light is at the end of the tunnel......
latest q update:
1 loss was 1.8(million) vs cash of 3.0
2 inventory down about 1.0,to 2.8 from 3.7
3 asset lowered by 3.2,liability lowered by 2.5
add color:
1 burn rate is 4-6 per year,how much longer?
2 sometime around next q,more cash is needed: debt or equity??
3 papas is cornered,ivfh is burning cash from both ends(post-pandemic,ex-expansion): sell out or take out(sam that is)??
2021:
i believe 2021 is the year of the "end game" for ivfh without sam gone.
ps-will i buy the stock,yes,at 3-5c.
wooowww...
i received 30.9444c per each smkc share i owned,and all in cash today. i called etrade and raised my concern about a likely error since the cash portion of the merger was set to be 25%,balance suppose are in hitif shares,and etrade assured me it is 100% cash distribution. i believe the buyer decided to do 100% cash to avoid the legality of the US rules and regulation or possible lawsuits by the US shareholders.
the issue for fixin is quite simple BUT....
draconian cutting of sg&a in an inflationary environment,unless there is a new ceo i am very doubtful it would be done.
2020 4th Q in a nutshell.....
revenue $15.1 million
cost $10.6(70% of revenue)
sg&a $5.6(37%)
total 2020 impairment charge of $1.7 ignored
interest $0.1(0.6%)
loss -$1.1(7%)
reflection:
sg&a as % of sale
2016(annualized) 21%
2017 22%
2018 27% red flag
2019 28%
2020 38%
2021 36%e
guidance for 2021:
revenue $56(10% growth)
cost $39(69%)
sg&a $20(36%)
loss $2.8(5%)
issues:
cost curve band(last 6 years) are bounded between 67%-74%,difficult to bend lower.
sg&a must be taken out 10% ASAP,otherwise STAY AWAY.
ps-Goodwill and other non-amortizable intangible assets of $1.53,i like to see it be written off.
this baby is on the move beyond 5x+.....
boosted by tax credit,4th q number looks good,and driven the price up to 55c.wooowwwww.
more change more the same......
from nt-10k:
Is it anticipated that any significant change in results of operations from the corresponding period for the last fiscal year will be reflected by the earnings statements to be included in the subject report or portion thereof?
xxx Yes ___No
my take:
either a profit of $1-2 million profit or a loss of $1-2 million.
thank you.....
about to call my broker for my missing "smkc".
future price of smkc based on the high tide share price volatility....
future smkc each share estimation:
smkc=7.7c(cash)+.66*(hitif share price)
tide tide(hitif) share price
@40c smkc=34c
@50c smkc=41c
@60c smkc=47c
@70c smkc=54c
@80c smkc=60c
@90c smkc=67c
@100c smkc=74c
at today prices of 68.48c(hitif) and 29.3c(smkc),
future price(smkc)=53c
or
price of smkc is being discounted@45% at the last traded price of 29.3c(smkc).woooww,smkc is chiiiiieeeepppppppp.
when it rains,it pours......
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/HITIF/disclosure
key points:
closing date was Jan 25,2021
and
each share of smkc acquired and valued at 30.9c,to be exchanged for
1 cash of 7.7c
2 0.66 "hitif" share at 35c(per share,my estimate)
3 may take up to 12 months from Jan 25,2021 to close the deal.
back drop:
"On January 25, 2021, the Company entered into an agreement to acquire all of the issued and outstanding shares of Smoke
Cartel (“SC”) for US$8.0 Million, implying an approximate value of US$0.309 per SC Share, representing a premium of 33%
to Smoke Cartel’s last closing share price of US$0.232 (Jan. 22, 2021). The consideration will be comprised of: (i) US$6.0
Million in common shares of High Tide (“HT Shares”) on the basis of a deemed price per HT Share equal to the volume
weighted average price per HT Share on the TSX Venture Exchange for the 10 consecutive trading days preceding closing of
the Transaction; and (ii) US$2.0 Million in cash. As a result of U.S. securities law considerations, significant Smoke Cartel shareholders have agreed to allow the Cash Consideration to be allocated first to Smoke Cartel’s shareholders generally,
who will be paid fully in cash, using all or a portion of the Cash Consideration. Pursuant to the Acquisition Agreement, 25%
of the Share Consideration will be placed in escrow for a period of 12 months from Closing."
few pennies away from the last yearly high of 37c.....
is this baby about to breakout again?? i think so,75%(yes) vs 25%.
"sit tight"....
real big money can be had on this one.
was: 3x-10x
now: 25x-50x
from the low of 3-4c.
keep an open mind and think big......
this one is a value play and the value is in the eye of beholder.i have no idea who might that be but i do know capc can be marketed and perceived as an valuable platform,perfect for this "melt-up" market.
price action......
condition: bullish
capc made a 6 year new high today. can it break all time high of 93c back on 6/16/2014 and soon?? i have no idea but i am hopeful. woowwwww.
ps-wild guess: oem capstone recumbent bike with smart mirror,retail for $999.99,available at box stores.
according to LL(larry livermore)....
in the book "reminiscence of a stock operator":
it is my "sitting tight" that made me $$$$ BIG MONEY $$$$.
bid@13c wooowwwww......
the stock price is going parabolic!!is it a pump in action??