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first trade of the day of 5600 shares @2c...........
got passed my gtc order to buy @5.5c(no qualifier).ooouccchhhhhhh.
don't know much about anything,do know at this low price(below 7c),the risk/reward is just too attractive to miss out.
best case scenario......
Or just may be,significant demand,ship orders,let Uncle Sam pays for the labor expenses.
between the two 8-k filings ............
from significant demand shifts(increases) to victim of pandemics,a qualifier/receiver of PPP Loan,which one is it??Or significant demand,unable to ship orders,may be the most likely case due to the pandemics.Or just may be,significant demand,ship orders,let uncle Sam pay for the labor expense.
"As a result of significant demand shifts in the Company’s business, and in particular, significant increases in the Company’s e-commerce specialty food revenues, the Company’s resources, which include key employees working on matters directly related to the completion of the Annual Report on Form 10-K (the “Report”), have been substantially focused on operational related items including insuring that the needs of its customers are met and, as a deemed essential business, to help maintain the food supply of the country."
vs
"On April 21, 2020, Innovative Food Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) received loan proceeds of $1,650,221 (the “Loan”) under the Paycheck Protection Program (the “PPP Loan”)."
pandemic update........
"received loan proceeds of $1,650,221 (the “Loan”) under the Paycheck Protection Program"
https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=14087455&guid=8y2HUe5LYXkayth
Crack #3.....
why infrastructure bailout is unlikely?preference of phase 4 covid-19 bailout by the populist,once gone thru,would keep the local and state solvent: save the government over infrastructure spending.
https://hotair.com/archives/ed-morrissey/2020/04/20/phase-4-covid-19-relief-emerges-500-billion-state-local-bailout/
Crack + hype.........
"Tourist Go Home" – Tensions Soar As Hawaiians Urge Non-Residents To "Leave"
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/tourist-go-home-tensions-soar-hawaiians-urge-non-residents-leave
"New optimistic coronavirus research"
Why we need to respect the short sellers.............
their function is to pop the bubble and prevent fraud.
From the master of short sellers:
Unless Mr Trump follows the footsteps of FDR.........
The economically disadvantaged and unrepresented population may fracture the society beyond anyones recognition.
Where is your hedge against the "Greater Depression"? a likely 1932-1937 FDR approach.
or
Where is your hedge against social unrest?rise of Nazism/fascism in the West.
No good choice between 2020-2025.
ps-may be the shorties are smarter,with 3-5 year outlook,and bet on the FDR approach: clf,a value trap.
You are absolutely right ...............
we are self-sufficient but NO demand going forward.
current state of US population:
"40% of Americans don’t have $400"
https://abcnews.go.com/US/10-americans-struggle-cover-400-emergency-expense-federal/story?id=63253846
"US wealth inequality - top 0.1% worth as much as the bottom 90%"
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/nov/13/us-wealth-inequality-top-01-worth-as-much-as-the-bottom-90
"Fed takes emergency action to stave off a depression"
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/23/business/federal-reserve-emergency-recession/index.html
"KKR-backed Envision(3rd largest healthcare provider ) mulls bankruptcy"
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3562320-kkr-backed-envision-mulls-bankruptcy-bloomberg
"Illinois Pension Bailout Request"
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ebauer/2020/04/20/illinois-pension-bailout-request-reaction-roundupand-why-its-a-nonstarter/#788ec32a6c2a
Are we not following the collapse of the soviet union?where million and million population suffered early death.
my correlation:
due to lack of medicine/health care
due to collapse of central government
infinite QE printing for "gun "(used and abused)
25 trillion Federal debt
6 trillion Central Bank debt and going up toward 10 trillion
state government started collapsing
.......
.......
God made America great,and the american squandered all: time to blame the no-participant.WAR(russia).WAR(china).WAR(iran),WAR(n korea).WAR(venezuela).
ps-plut WAR(saudi arabia),it just attacked TX(wti more exactly),and we want blood.
History in the making and Largest Economic Shock Of Our Lifetimes...........
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/historic-oil-crash-sends-canadian-oil-prices-negative
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/largest-economic-shock-our-lifetimes-goldman-sees-negative-prices-amid-oil-devastation
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/heres-next-problem-where-do-100-million-oil-barrels-get-delivered
We would be testing the 2 dollar handle sometime in 2020,not because of shorts,rather the fundamentals.
Spectacular damage from the shorts..........
as of 11:53 pacific time,may wti future was down to -37.63,NEGATIVE.a historic event is in the making and hats off to the shorties: you ready know how to fu*k a guy,royal,who thought zero was the limit(most he can loose),and NEVER NEGATIVE.OUCHHHHHHHHHHHHH...............MOMMY!
https://www.google.com/search?q=crude+oil+price+bloomberg&rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS725US725&oq=crude+&aqs=chrome.2.69i59l3j69i57j69i61j69i60l2j69i65.1981j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
https://www.barrons.com/articles/oil-futures-fall-below-1-for-first-time-ever-51587406408
ps-boys,I believe this was the short play of the century!
play of the day for the long......
sell clf may 1 2020 $3.0 put(15days)
upside:
15-20c premium
downside:
pick up clf shares between @2.80-$2.85
are we there yet?
later than sooner.
Papas/Sam are not buying at these low prices...........
nor stopping the downward trend as insiders.Signs of no confidence and pre-collapse.
SG: BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU NOT WISH FOR.........
https://chatwithtraders.com/ep-192-kevin-muir-the-macro-tourist/
AT PRESENT,EVERYTHING HAPPENING AROUND ME IS ABOVE MY PAY GRADE.I AM MOVING TO "GLD":
https://www.macrovoices.com/podcasts-collection/macrovoices-hot-topic-podcasts/826-hot-topic-13-gold-for-grownups-jeff-christian-debunks-the-myths-of-the-market
Nearly 17 million Americans filed for unemployment insurance between March 15 and April 4......
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/2020-daily-trail-markers-6-6-million-americans-filed-initial-unemployment-claims/
exit door just too small for volume higher than 50K shares.....
key problem,lack of demand and interest are simply killing the stock price.
ominous prediction:
below 20c again and soon. I hope you have dumped at least 1/3 of your position above 30c.
stock price(hi/lo) of last 3 years.......
vs today's price of 9c.
2018 56c(hi)/12c(low) or down 85% from hi of 56c
2019 23c/12c or down 60%
2020 18c/6c or down 50%
vs
quotable quote from bbc1:
"Management on the other hand is the glass half full. They have a track record of producing and making $'s"
if you are delusional,YES THE MANAGEMENT IS A1,A MONEY MAKING MACHINE.
ps-latest q,the operating expenses was so impressive,it exceeded its great revenue of $663K by only $240K.Woowww,I am really impressed by your "have a track record of producing and making $'s"
not good..........
"Just How Bad Is It Going To Get: JPMorgan Halts All Non-Government Guaranteed Small Business Loans"
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/just-how-bad-it-going-get-jpmorgan-halts-all-non-government-guaranteed-small-business
someone already beat me to it(defining the narrative).........
hope you didn't fall for it.
FAKE REPORTS/NEWS:
Unwarranted praises and rewards(fake) for 2 years based on a prototype,buying PR thru consultants,yet without delivery,ALL HOT AIR.
WHAT CAPC MONEY HAVE BOUGHT THEM:
"Best Of CES 2019: Capstone Smart Mirror With Google Assistant Built-in"
https://www.androidheadlines.com/2019/01/best-of-ces-2019-capstone-smart-mirror.html
"Capstone Connected Home is jumping in the game with a Google Assistant-enabled model."
https://www.cnet.com/news/capstones-smart-mirror-comes-to-ces-with-google-assistant-built-in/I
here is the problem:
paid me(report writer) and I write what you want,can you deliver?NOT MY PROBLEM AND I AM NOT A CAPC SHAREHOLDER.F**K THEM IF ALL I CARE.
again,the company is out of its league: buying pr and dreaming of going alone,no technical competence,digital marketing infrastructure built($$$$$$),unreliable sourcing,.........a cocktail of explosive mistakes/miscalculation set on fire and crushed by the pandemics.
silver lining:
SLOW SALE,NO EXCITEMENT,leads to quick dropping of the product in 2020.
the company dumb mirror is a glass that is fully empty.
This is bad.......
again,the smart mirror was actually powered by a generic tablet,hiding behind a dumb mirror,and with 2 strips of led light.it is all hype,low tech,and took them forever to get it done.it is my believe all the resources spent on this turkey is a fool's errand,DOA.
I am 90% certain this is a dud,and the line be dropped in 2020.
bottom line......
problem:
current private healthcare system is set up to optimize for profit(wall street supposedly),center around expensive operations and infusion of debt,not contagious disease like a plain vanilla pandemics(by design:under the scope of our primary service:common cold/flu drugs suppose to have taken care of it); and if(virus) not handle correctly,risk a total collapse of "population healthcare",and consume all the available resources.
feather that broke the camel's back:
focus on money making service,toppled by cost+debt+higher cost+higher debt+.... and cms fixed payment,
coming next:
CHOICE 1- nationalized health care system(specialist salaries capped at $100k)
CHOICE 2- privatized telemedicine-centric practice,in conjunction with current legacy/broken hospitals,asc,clinics,primary doctors practices,......all because of one and only one reason: COST REDUCTION due to efficiency/transparency,e.g. $850 per neurologist episode and $1100 per neurosurgeon episode.
more victims.......
"Envision Healthcare Corp., one of the biggest medical providers backed by private equity, is withholding some pay for doctors and contemplating salary cuts amid the coronavirus pandemic."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-03/kkr-backed-envision-withholds-doctor-pay-as-routine-care-slows
"COVID-19 has affected Tenet, HCA Healthcare and Surgery Partners' "
https://www.beckersasc.com/asc-transactions-and-valuation-issues/how-covid-19-has-affected-tenet-hca-healthcare-and-surgery-partners-shares-3.html
or
bed and mortar(hospital) model is addicted to "normalcy" for survival,too expensive and unable to withstand the financial hit from this pandemic.
War zone out there......
"Quorum Health Is Facing Bankruptcy Amidst The COVID-19 Outbreak"
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/hospital-operator-quorum-health-facing-bankruptcy-amidst-covid-19-outbreak
How much longer?
30-60 days,60% odds(my guess)
90-150 days,40% odds
or
weighted average of 75 days,which is again 2.5 month time(just like in the stimulus bill for the small business).
"Nobody's traveling in the next 30 or 60 days," said Vasu Raja, American Airlines Group Inc.'s senior vice president for network strategy. "But nobody is really making any plans to go travel in the next 90 to 150 days, either."
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nobody-traveling-next-two-months-airlines-dumping-chemicals-fuel-tanks-prevent-algae
humor of the week..............
ivfh=kkr(wall street)+envision(3rd largest medical provider)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-03/kkr-backed-envision-withholds-doctor-pay-as-routine-care-slows
here is the humor(sick) of the week:
bailout everyone?yes,keeping the ponzi scheme going for another decade.
Is the stimulus to small business/restaurants helpful?
YES.
http://financialsurvivalnetwork.com/2020/04/emergency-financial-survival-briefing-with-heather-havenwood-and-kerry-lutz/
bottomline:
grant,and how much and how long??
how much:
rent 100% coverage
employees 100% coverage
how long:
2.5 months
or
p/l and reimbursement on a monthly basis up to 2.5 months:
labor 35%(100% reimbursable)
rent 15%(100% reimbursable)
other 10%(100% reimbursable)
p/l(shortfall) 40%=100%-35%-15%-10% of the normal monthly revenue
my take and more to come:
2.5 months need to be extended up to 6 months
other up from 10% to 30%
net 20%(red)
plus
sba loans,collateralized,at low interest rate.
future:
my guess of revenue(normal=100%) vs duration
2020 50%(approx 40%*1.2)
2021 70%(50%*1.3)
2022 80%(60%*1.3)
2023 100%(70%*1.5)
all with menu price increase/offset of 30%-60%,and with cost(per revenue) increase of 25%-55% in the backdrop.
big assumption here:
second wave had no material impact.
and
no silver bullet:
vaccine.
this is war and it only just begun.
dear mikey.....
what is your thought of owning capc at cash price/share??
my guess.........
smart mirror:
shipped ZERO
cancellation 50%
shipped and returned 25%
........
........
or
the smart mirrors becomes dumb mirrors.it is dead.time to cut the cord and move on.
"6.65m file for unemployment last week"........
Last call,get out while you can,this is a dead cat bounce.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/02/us-unemployment-coronavirus-economy
Don't tried to scare me......
I might just wet my pants.
THIS IS TOO MUCH:
"I would not be surprised if 80% of the restaurants don't open when this subsides."
My average number:
20% and the million dollar question becomes: How much increase in menu price to make it whole? 50%-80% likely,STAGFLATION,and I just wet my pants.This is scary!
headline and reference:
"Could Permanently Close 30 Percent of California’s Restaurants"
https://sf.eater.com/2020/3/31/21201629/coronavirus-restaurant-closures-california-minimum-wage
plus their suppliers
"a $300 billion food-distribution network is on the brink due"
https://www.pressconnects.com/story/news/local/2020/03/31/coronavirus-puts-food-distribution-network-and-restaurants-on-brink/2910593001/
Think the company is dead...............
in the next few quarters and while undergone a reset.At 7c and lower,I believe it is a good calculated bet.I am a believer of surface mount devices for the mass market,not smart mirror,too specialized.Again,we have chance to buy at cash per share price and betting on a likely newly transformed(to be tested) company, a Thailand-centric broker/soucer-for-big-box-stores(well capitalized),for the future starting in 2021/2022.
smart mirror experience/tuition:
stay as a small cog and coattails box stores,any major deviation from that,is no longer "risk-averse",and stay put the ambition for a year or two,that is $1 million saving from r&d.
bottomline:
I want capc be a good copy cat,not apple;thus avoided high cost/risk associated with new product development plus expensive cost of marketing/inventory/infrastructure-build/..................
or
"buy when there is blood on the street." W Buffet/C monger
pre recorded CC.....
no questions,therefore no questions answered.
my guess:
q1 20 stand down(little revenue,loss of 750k)
q2 20 stand down(little revenue,loss of 500k)
q3 20 return to normalcy(50% revenue,loss of 250k)
q4 20 return to normalcy(75% revenue,loss of 100k)
or
cash down to $1.5 million at the end of 2020.
buying opportunities window,between now and early oct 20,would be my estimate.
10k delayed due to......
"We face risks related to health epidemics and other widespread outbreaks of contagious disease, which could significantly disrupt our sales and supply chain and impact our operating results."
https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=14043227&guid=_7iWUn2YNi66tth
ps-according to the 3/24 business update filing,things are all good,no impact or rather a small positive impact.
Er is out.....
revenue 410k
income -88k
or
not much change in 2019.
ooopppps........
to:
4Q 2019(pre-pandemic):
revenue $0.7 million( one scenario: 2800 units@250 if were all mirrors)
loss -$0.9
from:
revenue $0.5 million( one scenario: l666 units@250 if were all mirrors)
loss -$0.52
and
from:
6q cash life span with $0.5 million burn rate if things are not getting better
to:
3-4q cash life span with $0.9 million burn rate if things are not getting better
Standing Down Mode......
and likely to continue throughout post-pandemic 2020.
4Q 2019(pre-pandemic):
revenue $0.5 million( one scenario: l666 units@250 if were all mirrors)
loss -$0.52
cash+a/r $3.1
need done 2020:
Sales and marketing down to 250k(33% cut)
Compensation down to 250k(14 down to 9 employees)
Professional fees 50k(50% cut)
Product development no change
rock and a hard place:
6q cash life span with $0.5 million burn rate if things are not getting better
big/medium/small bet on the smart mirrors,all with outcome of losses??
bottom line:
a good buy: 5-7c(equivalent to cash per share of 6.7c)
a great buy: 5c and lower
down side:
I believe the company survival chance is 50/50 in 2021 and material contribution of smart mirror is negligible in 2020,2021?????????
what I am betting on when I buy at these low prices:
a transformed company,truly lean and mean
from led(legacy) to surface mount devices-ex smart mirror
beefed up Thailand sourcing operation
3% down..........
impact on revenue,a/r,and cash flow????
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/industry-has-never-experienced-anything-3-all-restaurants-have-already-closed-permanently
Chris Pappas, CEO of The Chefs’ Warehouse..........
transforming from wholesale to retail for survival.Can retail offset wholesale without being Amazoned?????
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2020-03-27/efforts-to-flatten-the-coronavirus-curve-podcast
update on the leader of the pack usfd........
"US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD), a leading food distribution company, said it is rolling out cost-cutting measures to mitigate restaurant and hospitality sales declines."
"US Foods said it will draw $1 billion under its existing revolving credit facilities to retain as cash on hand."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-foods-holding-takes-cost-180640327.html
just may be,ivfh/Sam just become the leader of the pack.Or did he just become delusional down from prolong denials?
ps-at 30c+,logic says get out with a 1/3 of your holding.