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CS on MSFT Nice quote on AZURE
PCs Sluggish in Q1 But Could Rebound in H2
PC Data. Gartner and IDC released preliminary Q1 2015 PC market data after the close today—with Gartner estimating that worldwide PC unit shipments decreased 5.2% year over year, with mobile PC shipments increasing 10% year over year in the U.S., and IDC estimating shipments decreased 6.7% year over year. Q1 experienced multiple worldwide headwinds including an inventory build-up of Windows 8.1 + Bing devices during Q4 2014, a tough year-over-year comparable (particularly in Japan), a commercial slow down following the XP refresh, and constrained demand in many regions due to FX fluctuations.
What Does This Mean For Microsoft? We have included a 7.2% year over year decline in our estimates, but near-term Windows pricing remains an uncertainty. Looking beyond this quarter, although Q1 experienced a PC inventory drawdown (as also highlighted by Intel's preannouncement), retail and supply chain PC inventories (as well as inventory of Windows licenses at OEMs) are often drawn down ahead of Windows OS releases. Therefore, although some risk exists to June estimates, we believe the stage is set for improved PC shipments and Windows revenue growth in H2 2015 due to: (1) the release of Windows 10 in late summer driving an "inventory restocking" at OEMs and in retail, (2) stabilization in commercial demand following difficult comparisons due to the end-of-life of Windows XP, (3) a slowdown in the tablet market, and (4) increased popularity of hybrid laptops (e.g., Microsoft Surface). Outlook. We believe that Outperform-rated Microsoft can return to double-digit EPS growth by (1) rationalizing the cost structure of the company (which management is already undertaking), (2) potentially divesting/exiting non-core businesses, (3) optimizing the capital structure (as evidenced by the announced fast-tracked share repurchase program), (4) stabilizing its Windows pricing strategy, and (5) accelerating the shift to Office 365 (i.e., "pull a full Adobe"). Furthermore, we believe that Microsoft Azure will emerge as the clear #2 market share player in public IaaS and will arise as the leader in public PaaS.
Barclays on MSFT today. Just interesting I thought ??
Stock Rating Industry View Price Target
Price (09 Apr 2015) EPS FY1 (E)
EPS FY2 (E)
Market Cap (USD bn) Ticker
U.S. Software
Overweight Positive USD 48.00 USD 41.48 2.34
2.80 340.293 MSFT
Microsoft 3Q15 preview: Microsoft is set to report Q3 FY15 results after the market close on Thursday, April 23, 2015. In spite of impactful FX headwinds and more challenging comps from the XP refresh cycle, we think the company will report solid underlying results that are underpinned by continued traction within Microsoft's cloud services. Although we acknowledge that there is still some risk to numbers from weaker PC sales data that has been reported throughout calendar Q1, Microsoft's valuation has fallen to levels where in our view downside risk is somewhat limited.
Trying to get over the Windows hump: Management has been fairly straightforward noting that the surge in PC buying activity that we saw in the second half of fiscal 2014 was not sustainable longer term, and thus Windows sales will revert back towards the mean going forward. Despite this commentary, we believe most street models haven't fully reflected to account for the tougher comps in Windows, or for recent FX movements which could result in headline risk when the company reports results in a few weeks.
Plenty left in the tank: We believe sentiment has gotten overly negative over the past few months, especially considering that the company remains one of the few vendors that in our view can effectively capture significant market share in the cloud. The company's ramping cloud products, as well as the fundamental improvements we are already witnessing within Microsoft's applications, mobility and business intelligence products leave us incrementally more confident in management's new vision for the firm longer term.
Valuation is compelling; reiterate Overweight: Our investment thesis remains that the company's broader transition to the cloud and as-a-service model is strategically beneficial both from an operational and financial standpoint. At a valuation of 14x CY16 earnings (11x EV/FCF), we believe this opportunity is currently being underappreciated by investors. Our target multiple remains 16x CY16 earnings, though given modest earnings revisions we are slightly lowering our price target to $48 (from $49).
My $ANY buy call. $15 - $20 next year. Cormark call $160M revenue https://t.co/G1Amc8S9yK. I see $1/share EPS https://t.co/ryHJ17Ifl6
— AGORACOM - George (@AGORACOM) April 9, 2015
451 research https://451research.com/report-short?entityId=84727&referrer=marketing
Sphere 3D looks to combine traditional storage, hyperconvergence and containers
Analyst: John Abbott Scott Ottaway
24 Mar, 2015
It's coming up to a year since an obscure Canadian software house, Sphere 3D, became a consolidation vehicle for several older companies, including tape vendor Overland Storage (previously combined with Tandberg Data) and desktop virtualization appliance vendor V3 Systems. The complex merger agreement was finally completed on December 1, 2014, and the company has now completed its first full quarter as a combined entity. It has been talking a little more about its current business and future plans, as well as repositioning its V3 virtual desktop appliance as a hyperconverged system and announcing a software partnership with Microsoft.
The 451 Take
Sphere 3D's strategy is clarifying somewhat now that the merger transaction has been completed. It's intent on repositioning its V3 virtual desktop appliances toward a broader hyperconverged systems and storage play while leveraging the sizable channel and sales force assets it inherited from Overland. What still puzzles us a little is the continued focus on Glassware, which still gets the headline billing in press materials. It looks more likely that Glassware is an enabling technology for appliances, not a software-only competitor to VMware View or Microsoft RDS. Any broader significance for Glassware – beyond Sphere 3D's own system products or niche markets such as education – will depend on adoption by OEMs, a formidable sales task given the overlap with long-established competitive offerings.
Context
As we have detailed previously, Sphere 3D was founded in 2009, reverse-merging with a shell company to gain its small-cap listing on the Toronto Stock Exchange. It developed a technology of its own, a lightweight application virtualization layer called Glassware that has similarities with Docker containers. In 2014 came a chain of acquisitions, spearheaded by investor Cyrus Capital Partners, which owned Tandberg and retained a majority stake in Overland when those two companies merged in November 2013. Before the overall merger agreement was revealed in May 2014, Cyrus and Overland already had equity stakes in Sphere 3D, and in February 2014 Sphere 3D acquired V3 Systems, a startup that had developed a desktop virtualization appliance. The Sphere 3D name was retained for the combined entity, sized at around $100m in annual revenue, with the majority of it from the legacy storage businesses of Overland and Tandberg. The company is now listed on Nasdaq. Eric Kelly, the former CEO of Overland, is now chairman and CEO of Sphere 3D.
Business update
Because the final merger agreements were only completed on December 1, 2014, Sphere 3D hasn't yet filed its Q4 2014 figures, which span its transition from essentially an R&D shop with no shipping products to commercial deployments. The company has indicated that Q4 revenue will be $9m, above expectations and up from below $4m in Q1 2014. By Q4 2015 (with all revenue from the acquisitions recognized), the expectation is that the annualized run rate will be more than $160m. Operating expense reductions already kicked off by Overland are on track to reduce annualized operating expenses by $23m, the company claims. Sphere 3D now has around 400 employees.
Products
Traditional storage products from Overland and Tandberg – the re-launched V3 hyperconverged appliance and management tools (still primarily focused on virtual desktops) and the Glassware containerization and application virtualization layer – make up the new Sphere 3D portfolio. Storage includes the Neo-XL tape and SnapServer NAS disk-based offerings, as well as Tandberg's RDX disk arrays and QuickStor removable disk cartridges, recently repackaged as a backup appliance. The V3 appliances, which are easy to drop into existing virtual infrastructure setups as a boost to performance, come in three models to support 50, 100 or 200 virtual desktops. They ship with V3's Desktop Cloud Orchestrator software installed for managing persistent desktops that can be provisioned within failover/restore pools. Glassware 2.0 is essentially a non-hypervisor-based application virtualization layer with lightweight container-like isolation capabilities; emulators for x86, ARM and RISC architectures; and a thin client layer supporting multiple end-user devices.
Strategy
Bolstering up the legacy Overland storage business is important to Sphere 3D – that's the area still generating most of the revenue. It's hoping to renew interest by offering its newer products, including the V3 hyperconverged appliance and Glassware, to the existing channel partner ecosystem. Indications that this might be happening include an expanded partnership with Ingram Micro's Promark division and a new partnership with Atos Societas Europaea to add the V3 appliances to its portfolio. Managed service providers and telcos are two target market sectors for hyperconverged systems – Ericsson, for example, is currently running proof-of-concept and pilot programs.
Sphere 3D also believes the containerization aspects of its Glassware software layer will be a draw for Windows users. It can help, for instance, with isolating and migrating legacy 16-, 32- and 64-bit Windows applications; provide a simpler lightweight alternative to complete virtual desktop infrastructure configurations; or be used to simplify the Windows licensing schema. So it's signed up with Microsoft to become an OEM embedded partner, and at the same time has a collaboration agreement with Microsoft to offer (through selected partners) Glassware as an application-delivery mechanism for Azure Cloud, specifically aiming at education customers looking to move local workloads onto Azure. The healthcare and education markets are the initial focus for Glassware sales. New Caney Independent School District is using Glassware to deliver Windows-based apps on 10,000 Chromebooks, while medical systems supplier Novarad is using it on purpose-built appliances for virtualized medical imaging applications.
Competition
Before the mergers, Overland found itself struggling to compete against larger storage rivals and caught in declining legacy market sectors without the resources to introduce new product lines. The addition of V3 appliances gives it an instant hyperconvergence story – one of the fastest-growing markets out there at the moment, and a sector we've covered extensively. However, V3's virtual desktop focus is a little at odds with many of the other hyperconverged players that are now concerned to show their systems are relevant to a broader set of workloads. As for Glassware, its closest equivalents are probably Microsoft App-V (for containers), Parallels Virtuozzo and Docker, although Glasssware currently has neither the visibility nor the maturity to be considered a serious contender against the latter two products.
Comforting to know. I was battling Keubiko on twitter I wonder why even
Waste time on him. But I truly believe in this COMPANY $ANY
Will defend her always!!!
Also just wanted to share with you a quote from $ANY
Keubiko is a misinformed tool IMO. I have no time for any of those guys as I and others here are focused on real progress
@michael_keen: Microsoft Consolidates Azure Application Services into App Service #cloud #Azure http://t.co/OLFnOtUC5d
Vidpok good question??
JB did this post earlier. Worth the reread IMHO
JB3729 Thursday, 03/05/15 05:15:55 PM
Re: ariadndndough post# 19289
Post # of 20810
Here you go dough -
To our Shareholders, Partners and Customers,
Last year was a transformational year for us and we closed it out with a bang! We took a giant step forward as a company through bold moves designed to provide a solid foundation from which we can launch our many fantastic new products. We closed out 2014 with strong financial results as compared to our prior results, and have started building momentum for 2015.
Like most longs, looking forward to what 2015 brings.
For fiscal Q4 2014, we expect to exceed revenue projections with a
record US$9.0 million (C$10.44 million) for the quarter. As a result of our commitment to operational efficiency, we worked with Overland management, prior to the completion of our acquisition, to ensure that their targeted US$20 million in annualized operating expense reductions were not only met, but were 15% (US$3 million) ahead of expectations. Our annualized revenue run rate has grown from less than US$4 million in Q1 2014 to over US$36 million in Q4 2014, and we have set our goal for an annualized run rate of over US$160 million in Q4 2015.
Tremendous accomplishment in identifying the fat and cutting it. Management did what they said they were going to do in improving operational efficiency.
The founders of the company anticipated that the evolution of
technology would see people connecting to their data through an ever increasing variety of devices operating on a wide array of platforms. Today billions of cloud connected devices utilize many diverse operating systems and multiple versions of those operating systems.
Right time right place for the revolutionary Glassware technology. Welcome to the Glassification of the Cloud!
The proliferation of billions of proprietary devices has led to a
growing set of problems surrounding software compatibility, security, and support, as well as hardware reliance for functionality. Virtualization technology, whether local or in the cloud, was initially envisioned as the solution, however increasing complexity, lack of compatibility with today's hardware, unmet performance expectations and cost concerns are creating multiple barriers to adoption for businesses of all sizes.
Glassware addresses every area of these critical needs.
In addition, with all these new "data creators" now online, we are
seeing an incredible data explosion. With data production expected to grow 44 fold between 2009 and 2020, there is enormous pressure on enterprises that are responsible for the storage, protection and management of this unstructured data. Consequently there is a significant market opportunity for us to assist organizations to address these problems and we find ourselves well positioned to do so.
Data has expanded almost exponentially since its early start in "computing" and continues to expand daily. The Sphere total solution with storage and protection will be rolled out for the world to see in 2015!
The proliferation of billions of proprietary devices has led to a
growing set of problems surrounding software compatibility, security, and support, as well as hardware reliance for functionality. Virtualization technology, whether local or in the cloud, was initially envisioned as the solution, however increasing complexity, lack of compatibility with today's hardware, unmet performance expectations and cost concerns are creating multiple barriers to adoption for businesses of all sizes.
Glassware addresses every area of these critical needs.
In addition, with all these new "data creators" now online, we are
seeing an incredible data explosion. With data production expected to grow 44 fold between 2009 and 2020, there is enormous pressure on enterprises that are responsible for the storage, protection and management of this unstructured data. Consequently there is a significant market opportunity for us to assist organizations to address these problems and we find ourselves well positioned to do so.
Data has expanded almost exponentially since its early start in "computing" and continues to expand daily. The Sphere total solution with storage and protection will be rolled out for the world to see in 2015!
We believe the investments we have made in our proprietary
containerization approach to virtualization, distributed hyper-convergence, and scale out data management architectures, are disruptive forces that can challenge the status-quo in IT. Going forward, the tenets of our growth strategy encompass leveraging our 30 years of innovation to deliver leading edge technologies, accelerating adoption of those technologies through our world class distribution and partner ecosystem, and expanding our strategic partnerships to deliver new business models and services.
The HOT buzzword of the day...containers. "Proprietary Containerization"
Will this be the HOTTEST buzzwords of 2015?
Evidence of this strategy can be found in some of our recent
successes in helping organizations deal with real world problems. I would like to highlight just a few of these since completing the Overland acquisition on December 1, 2014:
Earlier this month, we announced that our flagship container platform that virtualizes applications, Glassware 2.0®, was able to solve platform compatibility issues for New Caney ISD, an independent school district in Texas. New Caney is one of the largest deployments of Chromebooks in education, with over 10,000 devices used by students. They were looking for a way to deliver certain Windows- based applications, including graphically intense applications used in their labs, to student Chromebooks - quickly and affordably. Through our unique approach, we were able to deliver where others could not, and future-proofed their device investment at the same time.
In healthcare, through our partnership with Novarad, we are delivering Glassware 2.0 on purpose- built appliances for virtualization of medical imaging software, and providing our V3 hyper- converged platform for virtual desktop deployments. This approach allows customers to deploy a 100% virtual workspace versus having to manage both virtual and physical desktops—a relatively common occurrence due to limitations in virtualizing certain types of applications through conventional technologies.
New Caney and Novarad...Education and Healthcare two heavyweight wins for Sphere...so much for Shorty's argument of Vaporware. Has anyone noticed that Shorty no longer attacks the technology, but the same tired old arguments from last year...the clock is ticking.
Both Glassware and V3 platforms come with simple user interfaces
which reduce time spent on managing infrastructure, freeing up more time for delivering critical IT functions to users.
In the Managed Service Provider (MSP) segment we are working with Ericsson and are at various stages of proof of concept (POC) and pilot programs with some of North America's leading telecommunication companies. In conjunction with our partners, we are offering a unique distributed hyper-converged infrastructure and associated management software that enable flexible virtual desktop deployments with unparalleled performance.
The synergistic acquisition of V3 lead to "proof of concept" with several of North America's leading telecommunication companies, and Ericsson relationship is a HUGE fish and win for the company already!
In the financial services segment, we are helping customers redefine
their end-to-end data management infrastructure and provide them multi-tier protection for their distributed enterprise environment. With the combination of our scale-up and scale-out storage portfolio, and with our RDX QuikStor removable storage solutions, customers are enjoying online and off-line data protection coupled with enhanced data mobility that is uniquely possible with Sphere 3D's versatile data protection offerings.
Security is becoming THE issue of the day in this age of BIG DATA and Sphere has what sounds like a unique solution!
With over 1.3 billion people around the world utilizing Windows
operating systems, we are seeing increased interest in our Glassware containerization technology for Windows applications, and are being asked to assist organizations with everything from converting legacy 16, 32 and 64 bit applications to providing virtual applications for customers that don't require a complete virtual desktop for their users. We recently announced that we have become a Microsoft® OEM Embedded partner which allows us to better serve our customers and provide them with a simplified Windows licensing schema.
The importance of this Microsoft OEM Embedded agreement FURTHER legitimized Glassware (as if it needed anymore...only to Shorty I guess) and Sphere 3D a PLAYER to be reckoned with!
In addition to our customer successes, we are pleased to see a
renewed vigor from the Overland partner ecosystem as we begin to introduce new disruptive technologies. We recently announced an expanded relationship with Promark, an Ingram Micro company and one of the world's largest distributors of IT. Our worldwide network of field representatives are training and supporting additional partners as we ramp up availability of our new technologies. Through this renewed commitment from our channel partners, we have been adding additional listings of Sphere 3D technologies to GSA (US General Services Administration) contracts and will continue to do so throughout the year. At the same time, we are continuing to see stronger commitment and focus from our worldwide OEM partners who continue to thrive and see their businesses grow considerably through the differentiated value proposition of our offerings in their respective markets.
Wow...another working arrangement with Promark/Ingram Micro. Only ANOTHER mult $B company aligning with Spiffy! Calculate the potential of the GSA alone and factor in Eric K's Washington connections...enough to make one sit up and notice for sure.
In a meeting but only ONE reason for this. TO Screw the shorts.
What minute mark is $any on the video please
pete i wonder to sometimes but bottomline for us is $ANY is just in the beginnings we just need more TIME and PATIENCE. usually what PB and MK tweets about so far usually happens just needs time to happen.
http://educationaltechnologyguy.blogspot.com/?m=1
Sounds like GLASSWARE $ANY ????
Educational Benefits of Chromebooks and GAFE:
Fast boot time – 5-6 seconds - They boot up in less than 8 seconds and resume instantly -- eliminating the typical down time wasted while traditional computers start up and connect to a network.
Applications, school work, and settings are stored in the cloud, so multiple students can use the same Chromebook and still have their own personalized experience when they sign in.
The Google Applications are free for student use; such as Google Docs (word processing, spreadsheets, and presentation).
Allows for easy student and teacher collaboration and feedback.
IT Benefits of Chromebooks and GAFE:
Web Based Management
Reduced setup time
No programs to install – all student work will be saved in the “cloud”
No viruses and very secure
Updates are automatic and often
Easy to use - minimal IT support needed.*Inexpensive - allows more devices to be purchased
I show 7
Was it just me or did the WHALE make statement end of the day.
Also I emailed roth will let you know what I hear. About webcast
Also I am pretty confident ROTH will resume coverage of $ANY once combined
Numbers of OVRL and SPHERE are released
Good weekend all
Dough
@AGORACOM: Like I said http://t.co/7v5YGVJC5p RT @AGORACOM http://t.co/x6mNxO0Aq5 New position in $ANY Not quick trade. Technology is major disruptor.
Saw that. Shorts trying real hard today.
Lookout later on the day. Whales take out the
Fish
Today
Thanks. Good to hear. One of the clowns I didn't
Know
Churn baby churn. Could see 7.5 by close
Interest is really picking up. Lots of new EYES
$ANY
New short. Another one that has no idea
@christambos: Shorting the POS known as $ANY here in the $7's. Back to $3's soon enuf.
SHORTS in real trouble here
$ANY might be CS top pic next year but
This year VMW is. Unreal Marketcap 37 billion
$ANY. Cheap cheap cheap
From CS tonight
VMware Inc. (VMW)
Price: $86.59 Target: $130.00 Mkt Cap: $37.0B
With a stable-but-decelerating core server virtualization business, we believe that VMware is well positioned to leverage the "strategic high ground" of the hypervisor to dominate the emerging markets for the software-defined networking and software-defined storage. We expect these new solutions (as well as continued adoption of vSOM and vCloud Suite) to contribute to revenue and drive reaccelerating growth in the second half of 2015, and we view VMware's guidance for higher growth in H2 2015 vs. H1 as consistent with this thesis.
JB we take out 200 day Friday ??
I believe we do
ROTH next week
HAMMER TIME
wvumountaineer
what a series of posts excellent excellent
I am begging for you or anyone good at composing all your posts into one.
I would love to tweet this to all my $ANY followers in single page form if possible
everyday more and more investors are just discovering what $ANY can do and what the future holds
thanks again
dough
Yes very nice hammer.
Love today's action. Low volume sale off.
Rebound later as the buying returns
Also chart wise looks good fill the gap from yesterday
Love the action
From UBS 73 page report on GOOGLE today
Interesting
Android & Chrome OS Proliferation
As we have noted in the past (see our Jan 6, 2014 report, The Innovation Leader), the Android and Chrome operating systems form the crux of Google's ecosystem/distribution strategy. That is, while Google does not directly profit from the sale of Android devices and Chromebooks, the adoption of these devices is meant to distribute and facilitate the utilization of Google's web-based services, including its core search product. Looking ahead, we believe there are significant opportunities to proliferate both sets of devices.
With respect to Android, while this operating system already commands a significant share of the smartphone market (see Figure 5), its future runway comes in the form of new categories of connected devices. In particular, in the past year, Google has introduced specialized versions of Android for wearables (Android Wear), TVs (Android TV) and autos (Android Auto). We note that Gartner expects the install base of connected cars alone to reach 3.5bn over the next 6 years – exceeding the estimated install base of smartphones today.
With respect to Chrome, Google continues to push its strategy to introduce Chromebooks to the education market and to a greater number of international markets (now sold in 33 countries, having launched in 9 new countries in June 2014), where their low cost, portability, and Web-based services are attractive features. In our view, these notebooks could serve a significant role in Google's enterprise computing ambitions in the future as well, particularly given their deep integration with Google Apps (Docs, Sheets, Slides, etc.).
Figure 18: Chromebooks
Google Cloud Platform
In our view, one of Google's greatest strategic assets is the strength of its computing infrastructure. Given the rise of public cloud computing platforms such as Amazon Web Services, we believe it was only a matter of time before Google opened up its own backbone to outside businesses.
While Google's cloud computing efforts began in 2008 with the preview release of App Engine, the public launch of Google Compute Engine in 2013 marked a milestone in rounding out Google's offering to compete with other scaled players, such as Amazon. Google Compute Engine is an Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS) layer built on the global infrastructure that also runs Google’s search engine, YouTube and other services and enables its users to launch virtual machines (VMs) on demand. Besides its App and Compute Engine, Google also offers several Storage, Networking, Big Data and Cloud Management solutions under its Cloud product umbrella.
Going forward, we expect Google Cloud Platform to continue to rise as a driver of Enterprise revenues given the continued adoption of public cloud computing, which has been driven by the following benefits: a) replacing capex (upfront costs) with opex (pay-as-you-go); b) simplifying the problem of capacity planning (i.e., how much infrastructure to buy) to reduce instances of overcapacity and under capacity; c) outsourcing non-core activities, such as facility management and the
Google Cloud Platform leverages one of Google's greatest strategic assets – its computing infrastructure
associated labor; d) accelerating the time to market, particularly for web startups and app developers.
Notably, we estimate the total spend on data center systems and infrastructure software was $321b in 2014 and should reach $367b by 2018. As such, by engaging in cloud services, Google is significantly increasing the TAM to which it is exposed.
The resident shorts on twitter are still at it
Jb keep the good posts coming.
Dough
One short here bashing Jason
Low life pond scum they are. @Keubiko: Nice to see GOOG and @jkatcher being touted by $ANY articles now. http://t.co/EkXfLPYWCW http://t.co/64UxeJKg6X
I don't know how they sleep at night
@ComputingClouds: Cloud Computing Wars 2015 - Google, Microsoft, Docker, Sphere 3D And VMware http://t.co/BLfns8F6ue
Just sent out to 13000 followers
Word is spreading fast on $ANY
Sleepless night for the shorts
Big thanks JB
Can some post latest SA article in one post
Many thanks
$ANY getting lots of twitter love to
I just tweeted this with permission.
Encourage all $ANY longs who tweet to go make
Comments and get the word out. Many twitter
Eyes are watching especially with the breakout on the charts
Today
Follow this link
https://twitter.com/dougheuringaria/status/572521304827559936
Bottomline is Sheldon may be decreasing but
Some other LARGE buying is coming in
Roth conference will only help to get the word out
Jb
Agree I was shocked. These shorts are low life pond scum
So sick of them. Trash trash trash
But you can tell there scared and worried as
They are attacking on all fronts.
Sons exactly. Here is my email from ROTH analyst
I don’t cover ANY yet. They have not released updated combined financials for the combined company yet.
KRISHNA SHANKAR
Senior Research Analyst
ROTH CAPITAL PARTNERS LLC
OVRL comments from sept about merger
OVRL and Sphere 3D have indicated early success data points of the joint platforms in examples such as a public sector implementation of Chromebook devices with virtualized applications and storage in the cloud and also cloud deployment of a leading business productivity software application. . Another example includes a hospital network implementing a combined applications platform using SnapServer DX2 NAS storage, V3 desktop virtualization appliance, and Glassware 2.0 software.
We believe that OVRL/Tandberg and Sphere 3D have significant areas for collaboration with industry leaders in the cloud virtualization, mobility, networking, and storage market with companies as Microsoft, VMware, Citrix, Cisco, Intel, NetApp, Oracle, SAP, NVidia etc. In our opinion, the combined OVRL-Sphere 3D company will have a significant IP portfolio in areas such as desktop /cloud virtualization and mobility, unified software-defined storage, networking and compute platforms, efficient hypervisor implementations with low overhead including micro-hypervisor technology that can be embedded within a thin client OS or system-on- chip.
Technology & Product Milestones OVRL management has indicated shipment of over 2 million RDX removable disk cartridges to date and over 650K RDX drives shipped worldwide, indicating the growing acceptance of OVRL/Tandberg’s RDX technology for backup and archival purposes. For the network-attached storage (NAS) market, OVRL announced the newest version of its marquee GuardianOS NAS operating system with enhanced features for simplified storage management, higher security, performance, and support for platform sharing, virtualized storage and network environments. For the SnapServer NAS storage platform, OVRL management announced a collaboration with BitTorrent to embed BitTorrent Sync software with the SnapServer NAS storage platform. The combined platform delivers, in our opinion, an integrated, secure private cloud mobility solution with the capability to provide syncing and file-sharing between geographically dispersed mobile devices such as smartphones and tablets, desktop clients, and NAS systems.
Synergies for Combined Sphere 3D-Overland Merger Sphere 3D and Overland have been working together to develop an integrated application virtualization and data storage platform, as well as a virtual desktop infrastructure (VDI) solutions, which are already installed at select strategic customers and partners. The application virtualization platform allows native third party applications to be delivered in the cloud or on premise on a multitude of endpoint devices independent of their operating system. The VDI market, a key segment of the virtualization market, is estimated to be over $5 billion and growing 20% annually, according to Frost & Sullivan. Through the combination, we believe that the combined Sphere 3D-Overland/Tandberg Data company will have greater financial and operational scale, and a large and well established worldwide distribution network and tier one OEM partnerships. We believe that Overland's acquisition of Tandberg Data and Sphere 3D's acquisition of V3 Systems are important building blocks in rolling our a global suite of virtualization/storage and data management platforms.
The combination of Sphere 3D's Glassware 2.0 virtualization solution and Overland's data storage solutions will enable mobile device users the full functionality of any software program or application on any device, anywhere, eliminating the application limitations, data management and security problems for enterprises created by the BYOD (Bring Your Own Device) phenomenon. Mobile users that need productivity applications such as word processing, spreadsheets, presentations and collaborations, specialized software for computer-aided design (CAD), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), software development, video production or customized legacy applications can now experience full application functionality via the cloud or in the data center.
Combined Sphere D-Overland- Tandberg Data entity will have a $100 million to $120 revenue run-rate with upside possible from Sphere3D cloud storage/virtualization software and appliance revenues. We believe that investors may find the combined Sphere 3D-OVRL-Tandberg entity to be a more attractive investment opportunity with scale, diversified product and customer base, and a lower opex structure. The combined company has the ability to accelerate new initiatives such as virtualization and public/private cloud software and data management platforms, scale-out NAS storage, cloud/mobility storage, mission-critical enterprise data backup and recovery through disk and tape solutions etc. The combined company will have a more global customer base with Sphere 3D strength in Tandberg's strengths in EMEA and cost-effective manufacturing base in China complementing Overland's strength with SMB and channel partners in the
Americas. We note that Sphere 3D is an early-stage technology company with limited revenues and significant traction in customer engagements and pilot-stage deployment of its Glassware virtualization platform and V3 appliance platform. The combined company will have a more diversified product portfolio with the hardware mix being: NAS/RDX disk solutions 34%, Tape Automation platforms 22%, Tape Accessories including tape- drives/media 21%, services/royalties 23%.
Synergies for Combined Overland Tandberg Storage. We believe that OVRL and Tandberg have good product and technology synergies with OVRL's strengths in clustered NAS storage, scale-out NAS storage, tape automation and focus on SMB markets in the Americas complementing Tandberg's strengths in RDX removable disk cartridge solutions, tape drives and media, RDX licensing business with a strong presence in Europe and a cost-effective manufacturing base in China. The combined entity, together with OVRL's recently announced partnership and equity investment in Sphere3D, has the scale, product diversity, software/hardware platforms, and global support/service capabilities to realize the vision of emerging as a key provider of storage platforms and distributed cloud/mobility solutions. We believe that the combined company has a broad product portfolio, ranging from early-stage growth initiative such as enterprise/cloud mobility and storage/virtualization platforms with the Sphere3D partnership and scale-out NAS storage platforms to high-volume revenue drivers such as clustered NAS storage and removable RDX disk cartridge products to mature product lines such as tape automation platforms, tape drives, media, and virtual tape libraries.
The combined company will have a strong global IP portfolio with over 60 patents and IP in key categories such as cloud and on-premise enterprise applications virtualization and acceleration, technology to provide "native speed" performance and easy software porting to run applications on any mobile device connected to on-premise or public cloud data center infrastructure, and combined data management and storage platforms such as scale-out/clustered NAS systems, tape drives, tape automation, RDX removable disk cartridges etc. We believe that the combined entity will likely have good economies of scale with Sphere 3D's virtualization and data management software, appliance capabilities and OVRL's strength in developing and manufacturing turnkey storage and data management hardware platforms for SMB and channel partners globally, low- cost manufacturing in Tandberg China facility, integration and rationalization of R&D and SG&A expenses, integration and global scale of customer support and service capabilities, and scale advantages in supplier relationships. The OVRL-Tandberg deal, which closed in January 2014, is on track with product synergy, distribution, and integration efforts during a six month transition and restructuring period.
6 dollars on OVRL alone before $ANY
IMHO roth resumes coverage soon with target of 10-13
For starters
VALUATION
Our standalone target price of $6 for OVRL is based on 1x EV/FY15 estimated revs of $114.4 million for OVRL excluding pending Sphere 3D merger. Based on the success of the combined OVRL-Tandberg-Sphere 3D company in synergistic storage and cloud/virtualization platforms, the stock may have upside potential longer-term. The combined Sphere 3D/OVRL company has upside potential depending on the success of the merged Sphere 3D and OVRL/Tandberg virtualization software and data storage and management platforms, operating and product/customer synergies with the deal, recent branded network-attached storage (NAS) product initiatives such as the SnapServer DX and SnapScale X2/X4 scale-out platforms, continued operating expense improvements, and software/storage/cloud virtualization platform offerings that leverage the global scale and OEM/channel partnerships established by OVRL and Tandberg Data. Impediments to our price target include: inability to close the Sphere 3D and OVRL deal, lower than expected sales due to macro weakness in enterprise/SMB IT spending, delays in ramping new product platforms such as V3 virtualization/ storage and server appliance, SnapServer DX/SnapScale clustered NAS solutions, lack of success with Sphere 3D to sell integrated storage/virtualization software appliances and cloud services.
Roth on OVRL nov 14 2014.
OVRL reported 1Q15 revenues/GAAP EPS results of $22.9 million/$(0.42) versus our $22.5 million/$(0.25) estimates. We believe that OVRL's pending merger with Sphere 3D Corporation (Nasdaq: ANY) may create a leading vir tualization, data management/storage platform company. We believe that OVRL and Sphere 3D are making good progress on platforms combining OVRL's storage products with Sphere 3D's Glassware cloud/ mobility virtualization platform and V3 desktop virtualization appliance. The deal may close by end of November with 65% of OVRL's shareholders supporting the deal.
Update on OVRL, Tandberg, Sphere 3D Synergies. In our opinion, OVRL/ Tandberg Data and Sphere 3D are making good progress on achieving synergies in their storage, networking, server and cloud computing and virtualization product initiatives. We believe that the merger with Sphere 3D may close by end of November 2014 with a shareholder meeting scheduled for Nov. 28, 2014. We believe that existing shareholders and management of OVRL own approximately 65% of outstanding stock and have indicated support for the merger. We believe that OVRL and Sphere 3D are gaining momentum in the cloud and virtualization business with platforms such as SnapServer DX2 NAS storage platforms, V3 desktop virtualization appliance, Sphere 3D’s Glassware 2.0 mobility, cloud virtualization software platform, RDX removable disk platforms and Neo XLSeries tape libraries.
OVRL/Tandberg's core NAS storage platforms and RDX platforms are growing well. We note that 1Q15 revenue mix was 84% product/16% services. We believe that Overland’s NAS storage business with the
OVRL One-Year Price and Volume History SnapServer and SnapScale appliances is observing good growth in the
enterprise and SMB market. In our opinion, synergies with OVRL’s distribution
(Tandberg's access to large OVRL distributor/reseller channel) and OEM
customer base (HP, IBM, Lenovo, NEC, Fujitsu, etc.) are positive for Tandberg’s
RDX removable disk cartridge platform's revenue growth. Management
indicated that OVRL is on track to exceed annual operating synergies of
approximately $20 million by 10 to 15% and potentially achieve profitability on an adjusted EBITDA basis, excluding one-time charges, by the end of calendar 2014. We believe that OVRL’s settlement of the BDT Media Automation GmBH lawsuit and a patent cross-license agreement clears the way for future strategic collaboration.
Estimates & Target Price. We update our standalone OVRL FY15 revenues/ GAAP EPS estimates (without Sphere 3D combination) from $114.0 million/ $(0.65) to $114.4 million/$(1.01) including one-time expenses relating to Tandberg Data merger. Our standalone target price of $6 for OVRL is based on 1x EV/FY15 estimated revs of $114.4 million for OVRL excluding pending Sphere 3D merger.
SUMMARY
OVRL and Sphere 3D have indicated early success data points of the joint platforms in examples such as a public sector implementation of Chromebook devices with virtualized applications and storage in the cloud and also cloud deployment of a leading business productivity software application. Another example includes a hospital network implementing a combined applications platform using SnapServer DX2 NAS storage, V3 desktop virtualization appliance, and Glassware 2.0 software.
We believe that OVRL/Tandberg and Sphere 3D have significant areas for collaboration with industry leaders in the cloud virtualization, mobility, networking, and storage market with companies as Microsoft, VMware, Citrix, Cisco, Intel, NetApp, Oracle, SAP, NVidia etc. In our opinion, the combined OVRL-Sphere 3D company will have a significant IP portfolio in areas such as desktop /cloud virtualization and mobility, unified software-defined storage, networking and compute platforms, efficient hypervisor implementations with low overhead including micro-hypervisor technology that can be embedded within a thin client OS or system-on- chip.
Technology & Product Milestones OVRL management has indicated shipment of over 2 million RDX removable disk cartridges to date and over 650K RDX drives shipped worldwide, indicating the growing acceptance of OVRL/Tandberg’s RDX technology for backup and archival purposes. For the network-attached storage (NAS) market, OVRL announced the newest version of its marquee GuardianOS NAS operating system with enhanced features for simplified storage management, higher security, performance, and support for platform sharing, virtualized storage and network environments. For the SnapServer NAS storage platform, OVRL management announced a collaboration with BitTorrent to embed BitTorrent Sync software with the SnapServer NAS storage platform. The combined platform delivers, in our opinion, an integrated, secure private cloud mobility solution with the capability to provide syncing and file-sharing between geographically dispersed mobile devices such as smartphones and tablets, desktop clients, and NAS systems.
Synergies for Combined Sphere 3D-Overland Merger Sphere 3D and Overland have been working together to develop an integrated application virtualization and data storage platform, as well as a virtual desktop infrastructure (VDI) solutions, which are already installed at select strategic customers and partners. The application virtualization platform allows native third party applications to be delivered in the cloud or on premise on a multitude of endpoint devices independent of their operating system. The VDI market, a key segment of the virtualization market, is estimated to be over $5 billion and growing 20% annually, according to Frost & Sullivan. Through the combination, we believe that the combined Sphere 3D-Overland/Tandberg Data company will have greater financial and operational scale, and a large and well established worldwide distribution network and tier one OEM partnerships. We believe that Overland's acquisition of Tandberg Data and Sphere 3D's acquisition of V3 Systems are important building blocks in rolling out a global suite of virtualization/storage and data management platforms.
The combination of Sphere 3D's Glassware 2.0 virtualization solution and Overland's data storage solutions will enable mobile device users the full functionality of any software program or application on any device, anywhere, eliminating the application limitations, data management and security problems for enterprises created by the BYOD (Bring Your Own Device) phenomenon. Mobile users that need productivity applications such as word processing, spreadsheets, presentations and collaborations, specialized software for computer-aided design (CAD), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), software development, video production or customized legacy applications can now experience full application functionality via the cloud or in the data center.
Combined Sphere D-Overland. Tandberg Data entity will have a $100 million to $120 revenue run-rate with upside possible from Sphere3D cloud storage/virtualization software and appliance revenues. We believe that investors may find the combined Sphere 3D-OVRL-Tandberg entity to be a more attractive investment opportunity with scale, diversified product and customer base, and a lower opex structure. The combined company has the ability to accelerate new initiatives such as virtualization and public/private cloud software and data management platforms, scale-out NAS storage, cloud/mobility storage, mission-critical enterprise data backup and recovery through disk and tape solutions, etc. The combined company will have a more global customer base with Sphere 3D strength in Tandberg's strengths in EMEA and cost-effective manufacturing base in China complementing Overland's strength with SMB and channel partners in
VALUATION
Our standalone target price of $6 for OVRL is based on 1x EV/FY15 estimated revs of $114.4 million for OVRL excluding pending Sphere 3D merger. Based on the success of the combined OVRL-Tandberg-Sphere 3D company in synergistic storage and cloud/virtualization platforms, the stock may have upside potential longer-term. The combined Sphere 3D/OVRL company has upside potential depending on the success of the merged Sphere 3D and OVRL/Tandberg virtualization software and data storage and management platforms, operating and product/customer synergies with the deal, recent branded network-attached storage (NAS) product initiatives such as the SnapServer DX and SnapScale X2/X4 scale-out platforms, continued operating expense improvements, and software/storage/cloud virtualization platform offerings that leverage the global scale and OEM/channel partnerships established by OVRL and Tandberg Data. Impediments to our price target include: inability to close the Sphere 3D and OVRL deal, lower than expected sales due to macro weakness in enterprise/SMB IT spending, delays in ramping new product platforms such as V3 virtualization/ storage and server appliance, SnapServer DX/SnapScale clustered NAS solutions, lack of success with Sphere 3D to sell integrated storage/virtualization software appliances and cloud services.
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