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Yikes, didn't intend to strike that nerve - not the intent.
I was taught to trade by identifying patterns that establish key areas of supply and demand. A zone is simply the price range where there appears to be enough buying or selling pressure to warrant a change in direction. A good zone is tight and brief, unlike a base. There's an area of support (zone) that we have now entered and it coincides with a Fib retracement at 17.07. I'm not a Fib expert by any means, so I'd welcome any feedback on how to fine tune that target. But, a combination of indicators adds weight to the signal, so that's why I say it could bounce here. However, this range isn't neat and concise, it's a bit too volatile for my liking (i.e. too wide) so I'm looking to the next target areas lower which are in the 15 and 12 ranges. See graph. From the way I was taught, the greatest probability for a bounce is coming out of the 10 area.
Remember, I'm trading this. I'm looking to identify where a change in price direction is going to occur. If it doesn't play out then I exit. I thought 24 would hold but it didn't so I got out. I'm only looking for my next entry point. We might be in one now, but the better setups still appear (to me) to be lower.
Macro risks: Lithuania drawing the EU into a mess with China, let alone the whole South China Sea issue, a Ukraine invasion would be a shock to global economies, a hawkish Fed, and there's always the potential for Middle East surprises. I think any of these instabilities could trigger another leg down in the market. I am very much risk off at this point.
I guess I wasn't clear by what I meant regarding Slang. It was simply saying that while the return on the capital is ok, I don't see it as overly lucrative. Part of channel management, perhaps, but I believe there's more to that story and/or better ways to utilize capital. At face value I don't see how it fits in their strategic plans.
Oh, and no, I haven't forgotten about Perlmutter. Until it passes, it hasn't.
I’m also intrigued by the SLGWF deal. Propping up a supplier is one thing, but tying that up with a board shuffle is telling in and of itself. I expect Kim is looking at a greater opportunity than functioning as a bank.
Now that we are comfortably in the teens the focus (for me) turns to is this the zone from which the PPS bounces?
With current market conditions piled onto a “sloppy” zone, I’m not so sure this fall off has ended. Too many macro risk scenarios that may push the overall market down and this ticker would easily get caught up in that move.
I think there’s a small chance we bounce here but it feels more than likely it will be a dead cat. We’ll need to retest that intraday low from several days back but I’m not confident it’ll hold. There’s a Fib retracement around 17 that’s at the lower end of the current sloppy range (how I look at things), but failing that we’re looking at around the 15 area for a bounce. I think we get there.
The sector has dried up and buyers have simply moved on. Without a definitive catalyst, the sector (IMO) appears to be in the process of establishing a long term base. Just not sure if we’ve seen the bottom yet.
FWIW, a quick intraday move that taps the 12, or even 10 area are now in play from my perspective. If we touch the 10 area I will be backing up the truck in a big way. That’s a textbook zone to bounce from.
Volume precedes price. I agree, something is up. Those eod spikes aren’t there “just because”.
Thanks again for the work you do, and for sharing it so others can benefit from it…..horse to water…
I’ll be sure to bring my hat. LOL
I find it interesting that we’ll soon be going into the third year of the legal proceedings. Is it possible the government does not want to pursue a deal?
As much as I want these guys to get their due, they are still small players in the grand scheme of things. Any theories on why plea deals haven’t happened yet, or is it still too early in the process for that to happen? (Gratefully, I have no experience as a federal defendant). Or are they still digging and that’s why so much is still sealed?
I still want to be there for sentencing, though. I wouldn’t mind a little road trip.
What I’ve found is that some tickers are more predictable than others. Some follow well established patterns “better” than others. Why? IDK, but being able to identify a predictable ticker vs one that is not, is the key. For me, this ticker is in the middle somewhere.
I really expected the 24 area to hold but it didn’t. Ok, I was wrong. That said, it does appear the mid to high teens is the next area of support but it is a sloppy zone and I don’t particularly like it. With the 24 break that zone is definitely in play now. Will it get there? IDK. If it does, I will add to my position since the probability of a bounce out of that zone looks good. Not great, but good enough.
At the end of the day, price movement ultimately does come down to supply and demand. We’ve seen it here in spades. Demand dried up and the PPS fell. Simple as that.
And FWIW, if you believe an SMA or EMA can turn into a support or resistance (point), that IS predictive. You “expect” something to happen, that is, a change in direction of the PPS. Does it always work, no. That doesn’t mean people don’t use them anymore. It’s the same with patterns and supply and demand zones. Whatever works for you is what matters. And the only way to objectively determine that is to review your trades and the criteria you used for your entries and exits. Those who trade on feelings or hunches have no real criteria to evaluate so it’s impossible to determine what led to a good or bad trade. It doesn’t matter if you use lines, zones, financials, Cramer or moon phases. If works for you then you’ll make bank. It’s all good.
I know much of this is not new to you, but perhaps others will gain some insight from it.
According to Ameritrade, there were 15 days with trades > $50/sh. I’m not looking to pick a fight but I don’t see how you can say it really wasn’t the high.
The trades are real and they happened.
Good call out on the funding. Appreciate the response.
Is the hunter at risk of becoming the hunted? With the breakdown of the chart and continuing downward pressure on the PPS and multiple, you’d have to believe this is now on someone’s radar as an acquisition target.
I could envision some pharma company just salivating over a company with a well established and effective distribution channel already in place.
Thoughts?
From airplane parts, to used cars, to hoverboards, to grinders, to data centers, to crypto mining, to CBD, to wine corks and now to this ticker I’ve seen it all from Dror. Everything he touches is dirty.
I have no position in this ticker nor will I ever. I’m only here to watch the train wreck that is Dror, Yaniv and all the family and friends.
It’s been two years since I spoke with the FBI office in Cleveland. Anyone who honestly believes this is ancillary noise and that this ticker has a real future truly needs to pull documents from Dror’s multiple cases and read them. Granted, it will take some time to get through it all but the picture it paints is quite damning.
If you do the research you WILL understand what some have posted here about. It’s not at all about trying to stage an entry or exit. It’s about sharing the knowledge and findings some of us have obtained through many, many hours of research.
I shook hands with these characters and they lied straight to my face while looking me in the eye. Others who have posted here were even invited to their birthday party a few years ago. So yes, some here really do know the players and what they are talking about.
I have no beef with those who believe what they do, just offering some truth to the situation. If you can make book off this ticker then good for you. Long, short, it makes no difference to me.
Unfortunately, it’s the un- or misinformed folks that will pay the literal price.
The warnings are there for a reason. It just will take time for the story to be told.
Good trading to all.
Not that I want to be a human dartboard, but I’ll call today the bottom.
My next lower entry point would be in the very high 24s.
Looks like the high 26s would be a good area for a bounce. If we do get down to the mid 25s I don’t see that holding.
Medium term target appears (to me) to be in the 37-38ish range. Can the Fib fans confirm if that zone aligns with a target retracement in your analysis?
For me, fundamentalists don’t always get right nor does TA always get it right.
If you follow fundamentals there’s a good argument the pps shouldn’t be where it is, but alas.
A month ago I called out the 25 area based on what I saw in the charts. Did I know the day it would happen, no. Did I know how much it would bounce on a particular day, no. Did I know what the catalyst would be for the move, no way would I ever have thought the defense bill would be the trigger. Did I get filled in the 25 area, you betcha.
Fundamentals work, TA works, fibs work…but none of them all the time. Combining them all with disciplined rules helps fine tune entry and exit points. (The more you learn the less you know)
Do I still have an open order in the high teens, you bet. Will it ever fill, IDK nor do I really care. Some people are investors some are traders, some are Cybil, like me.
Find what works best for you and stick with it. Just because you don’t understand or can’t make a particular strategy work doesn’t mean it won’t work for someone else. We all make the market. If you think it’s going up and I think it’s going down we get together and call it a trade. What a great thing!
GLTA
So, here we are, looking at the 25s and wondering what monday will bring.
Too few positive catalysts in sight so I won’t be surprised to see a test of the high teens.
Those who lost out on the license quest (I think) now have a legitimate basis to pursue a case for recovery. Whether or not they prevail won’t matter in the long run because of the financial strength of the company. But simply having a case along these lines pop up I think will cause the PPS to take another hit. I will be surprised if nobody tries to go this route - but I’m not a lawyer by any means. Once all of that dust settles and meaningful discussions around legalization resume, THEN I think we’ll finally begin the long anticipated “million dollar run”.
Seems to me that Q4-Q1 are historically the best times for this sector so maybe the stars will begin to align soon.
I think we’ll see a push down to test the 25 area before moving higher. If that fails then we’re going to test the high teens.
Thanks Danr. Work got in the way of my digging
Yes, it was in one of the filings. I’ll see if I can dig it up.
So, technically I guess that makes me a part owner of that boat. Maybe I’ll give ole’ Chuckles a call and see if he’ll take me for a ride with his nieces?
Oh, wait! I forgot, he’s probably a little busy these days keeping his ass out jail. Never mind.
Fair enough. I was selling them.
No challenge intended.
Wow. He’s got way bigger ones than I do, that’s for sure.
We can’t get this guy off the streets fast enough.
Jim tells a very compassionate and compelling story and how he believes Jim would still be alive had the laws been different back then. I heard his presentation at the same time I listened to Kim’s back in ‘19 in Chicago.
I’m been on board with her ever since. If you ever have the chance to meet either one of them I believe it would be time well spent.
Like a moth to the flame. SMH
Thanks for the update. Sorry to see that he had his dirty fingers in yet another ticker.
I say we get the old gang together and take a road trip on sentencing day to see him off. If the court lets me, I’ll wear the Easy Grinder baseball cap he gave me.
Bollinger bands are now tighter than the ATR.
The spring is definitely wound. Which way will it go???
I think his favorite new quote is going to be “that’s not my soap on the floor”.
Not a good sign for whom? LOL
I’m sure the lawyer did just fine. I hope he appreciates how I subsidized his fees.
Cinco de Mayo! Guess I’ll have to raise a toast to my old “friend” that the call goes well. LOL (NOT!!!)
Agreed. The spring is tightening. Looks like a move coming in the next few days or so. That test down to 40 was pretty sweet.
Great summary. Sticky that!
The raw volume of data is quite large, so all things considered it’s not a surprise at all (at least to me) that this will continue to drag out.
Fine by me. I have plenty of popcorn handy to sit back and watch the show.
Go to that board here on iHub. There’s plenty of dirt already uncovered and discussed there. It ties in directly to this ticker and the players involved in the legal cases.
Don’t be fooled folks, ALL of of these guys know each other.
You’re not alone here, but this POS is not going anywhere. I’m ashamed to say I’ve held this for a very long time, through name changes and R/S. At this point I’m just waiting for a complete write off.
Save your pennies and put them somewhere that will improve your balance. This isn’t that place. It’s just a protracted death spiral.
4 TB of data to review in 90 days? That’s 44 GB per day. I don’t think so.
No worries.
Well, well.
Grab your popcorn, gang!
I looked into that last year and didn’t make much progress. The firm that was recommended to me didn’t seem that interested or, frankly, competent enough to take on the case. Eventually the communications withered and I never picked it back up.
Dror’s case has been pushed to 5/31/20. I haven’t checked the others yet but I would expect they’ve moved similarly.
Lemme guess. Dror loaned him the money to buy the company, but when the company doesn’t pay the debt back they’ll go to court. There won’t be enough money to pay the loan back, so they’ll settle and the court will allow them to issue shares as payment.
Dror will be unavailable to receive payment so he’ll have to funnel it through an off shore account.
Wash, rinse, repeat.