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Sorry about the brevity of that last post, I was kind of on the run at the time.
I think you’ll see a different picture if you move out to the monthly view. There are quite a few indicators available on the free finanace.yahoo.com site if you want to try that.
Find a way.
Go longer. What does the monthly look like?
I look at a lot of different time frames to ultimately draw a conclusion. While the MACD is hinting at rolling over in the shorter term(s), the very long term view is still holding up quite well as this basing pattern continues. The 11.50 mark is still my trigger for a significant break. A downward push through the daily BBs I would consider an early indicator of a downward move. Check out your fav CMF on the longer timeframes and it may give you some comfort that the move will be to the upside. The caveat on that is we're only a few days into June so keep that in mind.
At this point I won't add to my position until we get a break either way. Dead money for right now can be better leveraged in other tickers. If we break lower I will add in the zone I mentioned before, if we break higher I'll add as a momentum play.
The thing that gets me is what could be the catalyst that moves this significantly lower? Legislation is clearly the positive trigger, but on an individual or sector basis I think all the bad news is out. That leaves macro issues on the list of potential triggers - boats and tides and all that... Or, some unforeseen event like a lawsuit, etc. But that's always the case with any ticker.
Take a look at MSOS; those BBs are very tight also. Unfortunately, as you know, the BBs don't have a time component to let you know when the move will come, but I think of it as a spring. The tighter it winds, the bigger the move once it gets rolling. For me, unfortunately the MSOS hasn't been around long enough so I'm kind of limited in what I can assess there.
On the other hand, JUSHF is on the precipice of a drop. It can't get any closer to rolling over; while SLGWF seems to have broken out to the upside but with an ugly candle today - the jury (i.e. me) is still out on that one.
Net-net, I'm on the sidelines with this ticker until the move happens.
If 1.59 doesn’t hold I think we’ll make a run down to the low 1.40s.
Seems like just building a base here. The BBs are awfully tight. Whatever the catalyst, positive or negative, the move should be fairly pronounced.
I’m so glad to have you on the other side of my trades!
I have the BBs at 20,2 which are the default values in the TDA app.
On a broad perspective, if the overall market swoon continues the next leg down will take a lot of tickers along for the ride, regardless of how they are setting up. I’m seeing a mix of things holding up AND breaking down which tells me there is sector rotation going on and we’re looking for a bottom (and new leadership for inevitable next run up).
Over the next three days there is a downward bias in the Dow but not necessarily for the other markets. I’m kind of sitting still right now until we get a breakout one way or the other.
That volume spike right at the recent low (12.72) is still holding. As I’ve hinted before I think most of the real bad news for the sector is already out, that leaves only good news (from a relative perspective) to come so we’ll see. It seems to me that we’re in a sector vs market battle right now.
It does seem like it, but other indicators are looking bullish like the CCI. Bollinger bands are also tightening so a move one way or the other appears to be coming in the near future.
We’ve made several attempts to see if 12.72 will hold (which it has so far), but as long as we don’t break 11.50 nothing has really changed from my perspective. I’m comfortable with my $14 cost basis and am still holding it. This will probably be my core which I may trade around. There will be a LOT of pullbacks once we restart the upward run (with conviction).
I think your other post has it right. Valuations have been reset and the political news hasn’t helped. Hype and dashed (political) expectations drove the last run, profitability and opportunity will drive the next one. I have the same share count now that I did before but at a fraction of the original cost. If we get another push down the beeping you’ll hear is me backing up the truck. GL
Today was setting up similar to yesterday so I grabbed another batch this morning. Upward moves going into each of the last three closes is encouraging. Nice candle today, too.
Maybe the start of your bounce?
Interestingly, that large sale was darn near the bottom of today’s move. I couldn’t pass that up and took another nibble right afterwards.
Today’s candle is hammer-ish and the move into the close is encouraging, especially when compared to the overall market weakness during the same period (and we moved up on increasing volume).
With the delay in congress now clearly out in the open, I’m kind of wondering what other bad (macro) news could still be out there for the sector?
(I think) the rotation out of the sector is probably winding down. I’d really like to see some news organization do a piece on how hammered the sector has gotten over the recent few weeks. Then I’d know it’s time to back up the truck.
From what I’m seeing that looked like a sale, not a buy. Money Flow dropped like a rock after that trade.
You never know how deep price will move into a zone. In this particular case where we have a buy zone pretty much right on top of another zone it can be a challenge to navigate.
I can’t tell you if this is the end of the move into the zone or not. I enter/buy near the top of the buy zone (on the way down).
I’m content to hold what I have and will add more if we move lower. I don’t think we will break down below the next lower zone, but that’s just me.
GLTA
Got filled on my next nibble at 13.25 today. Getting a bit of bounce with a hint of volume. Let’s see if it holds up.
Sometimes the zones get broken just far enough to trigger stop losses so I typically I allow for that. Can’t tell yet if that’s what happened today but we’ll know soon enough.
Wicks are critically important. I don’t need a close to determine if a zone has been entered, the wick is sufficient.
Regardless, the low prices here vis-à-vis the financials are going to draw in new buyers. I think we’re in the ‘fine tuning’ phase of where to enter. Wednesday has a slight historical bias to the downside. Not sure how tightly correlated this ticker is to the Qs, but it’s one more data point for this week.
Good luck everyone!
So history did repeat on the Qs this time - three times actually. But what do I know?
Hope some of you took advantage of the swings.
If you don’t believe charts work, just skip this message. It isn’t for you.
The breakdown through 14.06 puts the next (and to me, the better looking) zone for a bounce in play. That zone is ~11.50-13.31. If that zone fails then we go all the way to 7.86-10.43 before we get a meaningful change in direction.
Either of these two zones look vastly better (to me) than the one that we just pushed through. But, if you’ve been following along I’ve said that for months…
Not advice on what to do, but just sharing what I see.
GLTA
Took a little nibble today in the 14s as buyers stepped in in the afternoon. Let’s what tomorrow brings.
Yes, agreed. A swing trade here would make sense until we get a bit more clarity.
I completely agree there is value in understanding the price drivers, but not all moves are directly related to news events. Sometimes the big boys (or the algos) determine it’s time to rotate out - and they don’t advertise. Could be in play here but I can’t say for sure. A sector rotation out is a distinct possibility because of the inactions of congress. Big money doesn’t sit idle for long, but they do leave footprints (i.e. volume). If they are moving out, that takes all the sellers out and only leaves buyers. Plus, the big boys then become future buyers themselves.
We know news can drive price, but the question is to what level will the price go? By using the charts it helps to determine where the price can go, regardless of the catalyst. News often has a way of moving price into pretty clear buy or sell zones.
Combine the information gathered and you have a more powerful, fine tuned method to place your trades.
I would be very interested if you find something that triggered the move yesterday. Very much appreciate your insights and posts.
GL
I spent a few minutes tonight to look a bit closer at the zone we are now in. It goes down to 14.06. I would actually like to see a push down tomorrow or Friday to test that level. We had some volume today so maybe the level will hold, although I'm not sure that all of the sellers have been taken out of the market just yet. Not enough panic yet, but we are getting there. And, we are awfully close to 'sell in May'.
If it does break through 14.06, then we're heading into the 11-14-ish range. I'll refine that a bit more if we get there.
Historically, tomorrow usually sees the NASDAQ move higher, down on Friday and then up again on Monday. History isn't infallible and I don't have stats for the magnitude of the moves, but it's one more piece of data that may help provide a bias for trade decisions.
Not advice, but just what I see. Hope this helps. GL
I’m going to go with the theory that Chuckles doesn’t really own the dinghy, some other bad guy does and he wants it back.
Need the $2 level to hold here, otherwise I can see a move to retest the $1.20 area. Yikes!
Ok thanks. I’ll see if I can do a bit more digging one night this week.
Any TA fans should notice the very tight constriction of the Bollinger bands on the daily chart. The spring is tightening….
Do you have any TA, like time or price based Fib extensions, that you can overlay into the zones I’ve identified? It would be helpful to add additional weight and clarity about where the bounce may occur.
Looks like we finally broke into the first of the three “maybe” zones I called out a few months ago…and some volume thrown in too. Now we’re getting somewhere.
Historically speaking, the end of this week should see some volatility. I’ll be watching to see if that plays out. I may start nibbling here, but will leave some dry powder in case we get a move into either of those other two, lower zones. See prior post for graph.
Once all the bad news is out, what’s left to talk about? Hmmm.
GLTA
Not everyone is surprised to be back in the teens - I think there are about two of us here.
Be patient. The buying opportunity will be here soon enough. And for clarity, I mean by price action, not time. Price defines the opportunity.
Still sticking with my prior analysis. Nothing has changed from my perspective.
As the saying goes, amateurs open the market and professionals close it.
Looks like we’re going to have three down days on increasing volume, and pushing the lower limit on the daily Bollinger bands. I’m still on the sidelines.
I’m not convinced this little bounce is the bottom; significant volume is still missing. We’ve retested the ~17 level several times now and while it has held (and was a prior resistance level) I’m sticking with my prior analysis that the downturn isn’t over.
The one thing that may offset the push down through the 17 level in the short term is the inevitable hype leading up to 4/20. That might be happening now as a part of this relief rally. However, with Uncle Joe’s opinion on legalization and his current distraction with Ukraine I don’t hold out much hope for meaningful progress towards legalization or Safe banking.
GLTA
Yes, I caught that last night. The noose will only get tighter if the government can get going in this new initiative. Ironic twist to all the continuations coming back in the government’s favor, again.
You could make an interesting movie out of all the twists and turns with these characters.
Can’t help but notice what looks like a mini head and shoulders pattern. Hmmm.
We’ve now reverted back from the bull trap and in the short term I could envision a bounce towards 24 to close some continuation gaps before another retest down.
Historically, there have been many significant up days while in the midst of an overall bear market. That’s where we are now. I’m not anxious to get back in yet. Haven’t seen enough fear or capitulation yet.
Absent a surprise in legislation this is going to trade with the market.
FWIW, I take no joy in being right here and would have greatly preferred the current events never came to pass. I’ve seen too many times when patterns (setups) have emerged for no apparent reason, only to be triggered (i.e. confirmed/fulfilled) by otherwise surprise events. I don’t know why or how theses things come to pass, but they do. The challenge is to recognize them and act accordingly.
My thoughts exactly. Ol’ Chuckles is way too concerned about his dinghy. I think he’s got it a bit backwards, so to speak.
My heart bleeds for him.
Funny you mentioned the cash. For the handful of tickers that I’m following in this space, they all seem to be in a rush to raise cash these days. Hmmm.
Absolutely agree. Bull trap.
Good for you!
LOL. Can I use that? Too funny.
Amazing how some people discount things they don’t understand, and make no effort to learn. Horse to water and all that…
It's comical how some here are calling out various approaches and strategies as flawed when their own forecasts are, shall we say, less than ideal?
Let's review some of the posts:
Late Dec - We'll see the 30's in Jan
Early Jan - ...we must be heading higher
Mid Jan - We're at the low
On 12/23 I said the high teens were now in play. Well, gosh, looks like the other posts were a bit off. Maybe, just maybe, some other alternative approach was on to something?
Ok Carnac, what's your latest and greatest forecast and how did you arrive at that target? I've already provided my analysis. What's yours?