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How much is a full lot? 100K Units?
The set up looks nice and it also came up on the technical analysis tool with a 80% probability rate. It's the main reason I went big on it.
My last trade from the tool was EJ and we closed it for 50 pips. I got out because it looked tired but the tool said it would go higher. Also, lately I've just been trying to have one play at a time in progress. I liked the looks of AJ a little more and that 80% probability rate had me extra excited about the entry here.... lol
We might have to wait a few days for my target price but I think this trade could make my week.... lol
Just loaded the boat on AJ. I have a 95.75 target set....
Go Man Go!
If you use the Oanda web platform you will see an icon on the left for "Technical Analysis." Click it and it opens a tab on your web browser. It gives you different pattern plays.... Try it out
They are using the H1 chart for the NJ play. All of these plays are shorter term and I use them only for an overnight type of play. With that said, I'm not in NJ because I have my hands full with USD/CHF to the short side......
It's just a tool. They give lots of plays but I try to cherry pick when I'm looking for an entry....
Might be roadkill...... lol
Fib extension tool shows our first target for the USD/CHF short to be at .9369 and then .9294. Taking a shot at lowering my TP to .9350 for an overnight trade. An entry here looks very good, imo.
Current price is .9434..........
Technical Analysis tool calling for a nice short on NJ right now. They have set a TP @ 83.02. Even if we raised that a bit you're looking at a 100 pip trade or so.....
USD/CHF looks ready for another dip. Got a small TP of .9375 on it. Might be a nice trade here.....
I locked in 75 pips overnight myself. I took a NU long here with hopes of another 100 pips but would gladly close it with a mere 25 more pips..... lol
Thanks. It happened quicker than I thought it would also. Just grabbed a little NU to the long side. We could see another 100 pips overnight. That would be sweet!
Taking a shot here with a USD/CHF short. Could be a 2 or 3 day hold to get my target price of .9460. After that we can see if some momo picks up and we see a little run.....
Has a search party been sent out for Pennies? LOL
To each his own I guess. I got murdered when I tried to just trade at the lower timeframes. I find the longer the timeframe, the better chance of success I will have. It's just a matter of knowing your own strengths and weaknesses and then being able to accept those truths about yourself....
I try to do that myself. I try to see how other pairs "match up" against the one I am looking at. But unlike you I tend to match them up all against the US dollar. I only use the US dollar as a measuring stick because it's the most familiar currency to me. (Keep it Simple, Stupid). LOL
OK, You're using to scalp at lower timeframes....
I read your post about the Swissie. I can see where you're going with it. Time to throw up a set of fibs on that bad boy...
SG, what's your take on NU now? Is this what you look for in an obvious consolidation? It looks to be torn right now as to which way we ultimately go. But it sure looks like the sellers have finally died down.....
Been out running around for 2 days but did manage 2 trades that worked out. But I don't see anything that just jumps out at me right now.....
I hear ya SG. It wasn't too long ago that we just had to go long on AJ or UJ and just sit back and count the profits. But at the same time many of us "knew" that a top was just around the corner. Many times I tried to catch a top and look brilliant as I just "knew" the chart looked top heavy only to watch it go even higher.
I'm really starting to wonder if the poster from the other day may be onto a better strategy and play the daily charts. You don't have to mess with all these spikes and you can play the longer term trends after they have been defined.
I've been going at this for two years and still banging my head against the wall. It's a whole different animal than the options I was used to playing. But in the long run I'm a wiser trader for the experience. But we gotta start making some real coin soon or it would be downright insane for me to continue this path.
I'm not down a lot (just under $2K) over the past 2 years. I'll chalk it up to the price of admission. But it just seems silly to put all my eggs into the forex basket at this time....
At least I can be honest about my losses as well. Not that a moral victory makes me feel any better.....
My concern with that idea is that as we continue to hear about a strong recover in the US, we may get the Fed to start raising rates. This combined with less buying of the bonds by the Fed all spell out a stronger dollar.
This doesn't really seem to be about whether or not the US recovery is for real or not but rather how bad the rest of the world is still performing. Technically and fundamentally, I believe you to be correct.
But who wants to stick their head on the chopping block because of principal? For us little guys to make it we need to stay with the herd and keep an eye out to reverse course just before the cliff approaches.
Gonna be real difficult, that's for sure
Thus the crux of the problem. Based out of South Florida and the old CEO based in Central Florida, don't you think flooding the Florida areas with a simple cable promotion campaign and locking down Florida before advancing to other markets would be a sound business plan?
These guys have the best tasting energy drink, hand down. But folks that drink this type of product are extremely loyal. Why else would anyone drink Red Bull? That stuff is just terrible. But when Red Bull came around they bombarded one market at a time until they had a foothold. Then just rinse and repeat.
I've had lots of face to face discussions but my suggestions went over like a fart in church. It became obvious that all that was wanted was "yes" men and a few cheerleaders. And when things didn't pan out it was easy to point the finger at others for not doing what they said they could do. Never once did I hear management take responsibility for what went wrong from year 2008 thru 2012 (the years I was associated with them).
Now we see them hang a big huge mistake on the last CEO. BUT WHAT ABOUT THE MILLIONS THAT WAS RAISED FROM 2008-2012? Yes millions folks! The best advertising plan they could come up with was "a can in the hand?" Or let's give millions away to the pro bmx racers because we all know how many folks can name the big winners at the last X-games, right?
At any time these guys could have re-focused on their own back yard and capture the local market first. BTW, Florida is a pretty damn huge market, but I digress. The fact is, you can make new flavors, re-brand the cans, or offer a free blow job to all the 17 year old boys that buy the product. But if you don't advertise to let folks know what you have, you ain't selling shit.
And if you ain't selling products how do you guys ever suspect an investor can recover their money much less make a profit. Blame whomever you'd like, it really doesn't matter. Someone isn't selling the products....... period.
Like I said the EA trade was just me being greedy. It was a mistake and we tend to do that from time to time.... lol
My set up uses the Heikin Ashi candles, the tunnel as well as the TDI Indicator. It's a pretty simple set up but it works pretty well as long as I don't push the envelope. If you are patient you can make 3 or 4 really good trades per week which is enough to hit your goals.....
But who wants to just hit our goals if we can blow up the whole chart and rob the bank! LOL (See what I mean? Greed)
This has been pretty much what I expected. I'm a night guy and don't usually get up until about 11 AM. So my trades are set at night and I have to set a TP price. Then hopefully I awake to profits. It's just the only way I can trade due to my condition and why forex seems to be best for me right now.
That damn EA trade had the TP set a little to high. It came to within about 15 pips and then took a nose dive. I guess I got too greedy and paid for it.....
Things might start to change this January because we are starting my Filipino wife's first Roth IRA account. She will be looking at stocks positions but I think we will just steer her towards the most conservative things we can. She hates to lose money at any time..... lol
Gets me back to where I started..... LOL
That EA trade took me out back to the wood shed for an old fashioned "how do you do" introduction.....
Hopefully this next trade gets me on track for my weekly goal....
I grabbed a 100 pips overnight on NU and then sat on my hands a bit. But I just loaded the boat again on NU but set a TP at .7935. If we make that point I will take a good hard look to see if it warrants a bigger run.
NU looks ready, imo
Great trade SG!
But I think it was more due to weakness in the Euro overnight than to any Kiwi strength. When I look at EU I see a big drop but NU is still leveling off right now.
So my EA dropped over night as well. Again the Euro hit the toilet while AU is still leveling off.
I was tempted to just take my lumps on EA and fight another day but wondering if we start to see a bounce in the Euro yet. Fundamentals say "No Way" but the chart is way oversold right now.....
So I sit and wait just like you did with EN, lol.....
All great points. I was just trying to point out that us retail investors are always the last to know. But trying to match the fundamentals with technicals is a great way to go if both are in agreement....
You can see that influence on the monthly and weekly charts. Now that the momo is in motion and the retail investors are anticipating a bounce, I can see a little more pain. As of this writing the NZD/USD longs are at 59.3%, down from over 70% as of yesterday.
Retail investors are always last to jump on board so I'd be looking for the majority to go short before the bounce. Those SOB's love to inflict the pain on the average guy!
The next low around .7450 could be the hard floor but at this point, why guess? The trade has been to the short side and I just ride the wave until there is no wave.......
Didn't most of keep trying to call a top on the Yen for damn near 6 months? That didn't work out either..... lol
I'm looking at an EA long right now. I just wanna see 1.46 and I'll move on..... lol
Just looked at the tech tool for Oanda and it is showing just exotic pairs right now. Time to shut her down for the night....
Same here... Was thinking about a UJ long but after taking it I chickened out and took a small loss. Nothing out there that I really like just yet....
NZD/USD approaching the .886 retrace and close to 71% of retail investors on the long side.
Anyone ready to grab the falling knife?
I might even wait for a double bottom at around .7680 or so. This bad boy still not showing any indication of a bounce, imo....
But that TDI is coiled up like a tight spring so when it finally reverses it ought to be a big one......
So what's hot boys? LOL
I also look at the charts that have a 70% chance or better in reaching their projected target prices. It gives you less charts but I like the probability of having a winner.
Also, like I've said before, I usually end up setting a target price below what Oanda suggests. I base my targets on my own charts. I don't usually get huge winners but I can average over the 25 pips per day. And if you look at the home page of this board you can clearly see how SG outlines a 25 pip per day strategy that builds a portfolio pretty quickly over a years time.
It's just another tool that we could use. But it gives us another set of eyes to look for possible plays. I like it but it may not be for everyone....
Hey SG,
Looks like our call of a bit more weakness on the NZD overnight came to fruition. We were able to make about 60 pips on that AUD/NZD trade. This week I strictly used the technical analysis tool on Oanda. Looked for major pairs with at least a 70% chance of hitting their targets.
Then using their info and my charts, I was able to put realistic TP's on the trade. I haven't had any huge trades with this last trade of 60 pips being the largest, but I have many more winners than losers. Which is very good for my fragile ego! LOL
Have a great weekend